This post is somewhat of a homage to a song on Kanye West's My Beautiful, Dark, Twisted, Fantasy. It was inspired loosely by something Destiny said a few months ago commenting on PiqLiq. "When last did he win a tournament?"
The upper echelons of the SC2 community are largely in agreement as to what makes a good player. Great macro, great micro, good scouting, good composition, solid decision making. This speaks more towards the intangibles of risk-taking. Players like Ret are known for taking aggressive macro risks, and others like BitByBit Prime WERE known for taking aggressive attacking risks.
Who will survive on the ladder?
Who will survive in the pro game?
It is my hypothesis that many good players cut corners and rely on their opponents NOT doing a run-by when they leave their base. They play well, but they rely on their opponents not having optimal play.
I believe the BEST players assume their opponents have optimal play for all unscouted information. I think this is a mindset which is hard to adopt if one does not assume optimal play. It is also foundational, in that it is what one makes their decisions upon. Safe-expo, or greedy macro play?
The only way you can assume sub-optimal play is when you know your opponent thoroughly and can say that he doesn't punish a greedy opening a certain percentage of the time.
This isn't thoroughly flushed out. I'd optimally like some stats and examples to support my hypothesis, but I will be watching the ratio of relatively safe plays to risky plays, and watch how the safe players end up doing.
This is why I think MC did so well in code S. He had a HIGH risk, HIGH reward style of play, where he cut corners. It's also why he's in code A, and lacks long term viability, imho. His macro and micro are great, he just assumes too much.
This is why I think someone like July has longer term viability. He forces his opponent into situations, so July knows the risk and can quantify his situation.
Ladder players who play like MC or DeMuslim will do really well on the ladder, but those like Polt or July will do better in tournaments.
|
I think scouting and denying scouting has a lot to do with the viability of assuming non-optimal play in games.
If you scout your opponent in far positions, and he has yet to scout you, then it's much safer to go for a riskier economic build. Optimal play for him at that point would to just become incredibly aggressive, or even all-in you, to punish your greedy play, but because of scouting information on your own part, and lack of scouting from your opponent, you know you're relatively safe.
I think the same goes for other things. If you deny your opponent map control as well as vision of the map, then you have much more freedom to move about the map and take small risks that you otherwise wouldn't.
As well, I feel assuming optimal play from your opponent can be a fault, sometimes. For example, I've seen games from IdrA, where he begins harassment with mutalisks versus Terran, and the Terran has yet to set up missile turrets to defend his base, and has either a low marine count or is out of position, but instead of punishing him, his opponent escapes relatively unharmed, as he assumes optimal play and that he will have several missile turrets up at that point in time, as well as marines in position. The fault comes in not checking/scouting for this information, but rather just assuming good play from your opponent.
I guess this just reinforces the concept of constant scouting. Also, this might change in the future, as players become better and more consistent, as then it would probably be safer to assume optimal play from your opponent, and there will be less times such situations will arise.
So, instead of assuming optimal play, I'd say the best players are the ones with the best scouting and map control/awareness, as well as knowledge of game-flow and the match-up. If they know what their opponent is doing, they don't need to assume anything, and by having a very solid knowledge of the game, scouting information becomes drastically more valuable.
Wow, that turned out longer than I expected. :p
|
EPT
