Rus_Brain's FOREX stats 2010

28/06/10
Week started at ~1,238. Now the same. No special move. Started falling unfourtunate. Low at 1.2343. I'm going to close the position with a few loss (kinda time-out termination with a week with zero profit). Instead moving my stop-loss level higher to 1.22. Overall risk 2,60%. Workday ending at 1.2308.

29/06/10
Closing position with loss. No opportunity for growth as I think. Yesterday relative high is 70 pips lower than previous one. Dynamic resist also falls. Next trade levels at 1.22 and 1.247.
Price came down to 1.215 by the end of the day.

30/06/10
Price rebounded from 1.215 (major level as already rebounded on 19th and 27th of May). Day high at 1.23

01/07/10
The price tried ~1.22 level but failed. 1.215 rebound proved true. The moment where I should've bought. Looking at it now I can conclude that was a mistake.
Next price rocked-jumped over 1.25. Bought +0.04 at 1.2497 as both 1.24 and 1.246 resists highly penetrated. Risk is 2.14% The growth possibility still stay high. However should have bought at ~1.2305 due to: a) lows for three consisted days rises, b) high of the previous day penetrated, c) major resist level stood for three times already.

02/07/10
Price stays at 1.248~1.25. My half-way stop seems to be good. Just waiting now.

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21/06/10
Level 1,2452 penetrated with a huge gap open. Gap was also filled with a shadow which lowers the risk of downfall. Moreover the shadow seems like bounced from dynamic resist level (the diagonal line at 4H chart).
In general the normal risk level for Daily charts is ~1.214. You can see price bounced this level several times before going down.

However it is quite a lot to lose in cash if the entire stop-loss will be at 1.214, so I decided to unite Daily and 4H charts. And this is how:

I'm buying 0.05 with a minor stop 0.02 @ 1.235 (penetrating will show me the ~45° angle resist is broken); and major stop 0.03 @ 1.214 (penetrating will show me the entire growth trend is broken). Thus I will risk with ~$25 for minor and ~$95 for major stops. Total risk will be ~3% which is affordable.
UPD
Buy: +0.05 @ 1.2458
stop: -0.02 @ 1.2350
stop: -0.03 @ 1.2140
risk: 3.07%

22/06/10
The fall followed the growth last day. I've like bought at a high price.
Nevertheless the trend-change level is at ~1.214.

23/06/10
The low level for now is at ~1.2243. My 1.214 stop looks good. No actions here. Waiting.
Fibo levels (pulse 1.1875~1.2467):
38,2% - ~1,224
50% - ~1,217
62,8% - ~1,2095
Now 38.2% is under question (low exactly at that level). If true - add position / lower risk.
Otherwise fibos for week charts (pulse 1.3691~1.1875):
38,2% - ~1,257
50% - ~1,278
62,8% - ~1,299
So if 38.2% rebound is true, growth after 1.257 is very questionable.
After workhours low was 1.2208 (38.2% fibo looks penetrated). However I won't lower the risk as this is a question of $10 in cash.

24/06/10
Even though the low is ~30 pips lower than my calculated fibo, it may be called a fibo-rebound.

25/06/10
Yesterday candle have a small body and quite a big shadows (both down and upwards). However Friday (for now) is more than Thursday, and Thursday is more than Wednesday. All Ok. Waiting for next week.

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14/06/10
A small 15 pips gap open of the week. The resist level of 1.21~1.215 I assumed before did not stand. Next important point before my stop-loss is 1.2206. And I did not stand either. Lost 2%. The highest point of the day was 1.2297

15/06/10
As the day opened at ~1.22 I assume the next importnant breakdown/rebound level at ~1.235; however ~1.245 is still more important. Waiting for the price reach the levels.

16/06/10
The maximum point exactly at 1.235. And the price was all day long volatile at ~1.232. Still waiting

17/06/10
Everything looked like a consolidation with a max point at ~1.235. I decided to buy at ~1.22 or lower (to be sure this is a true consolidation). However Euro grew a lot by the end of the day. Max point at 1.2408

18/06/10
The current maximum is 1.2412. RSI indicates the price successfully left the "oversold" mark and now floating at ~1.24. Now waiting for 1.245 level activity. That's the level I'm willing to buy or sell from.

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07/06/10
Seems like the price continue to fall from friday. Opened with a small gap. 1.19 level breakdown. Now floating within 1.20~1.19.
Adding short position: -0.01 (total opened -0.06). Stop @ 1.2222

08/06/10
Continued floating withn 1.20~1.19.
Adding short: -0.01 (total opened -0.07) with the same stop.

09/06/10
Successful 1.2 level breakdown. Max at 1.2044. Short additions were too hasty. Noted as mistake.
The main resist level is 1.21~1.215 (as it was a good support for May 18-19 and May 26-27. If the price penetrate this level short positions should be cancelled.

10/06/10
Resist level mentioned before still stands [Image attached].

11/06/10
The highest point for the day (and the week) is 1.2147. That is actually higher than dynamic resist. I'm still holding my position as I assume this is a "truth point". Level breakdown confirmation and my stop level are approximately the same. Thus waiting. If price falls I will add short position and moving the stop level lower. If price rises I will fix the loss and wait for another opportunity (next important level is at ~1.245).

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