Info:
EUR/USD,
Day chart,
Trend-following trading system, based on level breakdown/rebound,
~3-5% risk level for a signle trade.
Started with $4000 in February, 2010
Updating once a week on Fridays.
Original reports here, or directly through google.wave.
You can check the charts here.
- 27th week report05/07/10
Holding this position open as price is still above 1.25. However ~1.25 could be a strong resist, being support at November'08-March'09.
06/07/10
Most volatile day of the week. Low at 1.248 and high at 1.2661. No actions. Just waiting.
07/07/10
Still waiting whether price break or rebound from 25 May level (1.27)
08/07/10
25 May level broken. However there are no serious movements. Day high at 1.2711
09/07/10
Price is moving at ~1.27 being unable to form a strong breakdown. Also stohastic signals of possible drop.
I decided to close half of position. Also I moved my stop level to 1.2625, making 1.68% guaranteed profit.
+ Show Spoiler +stats for the end of the week:
Balance: $3 766,06 -5,85%
open +0,02 @ 1,2497
stop: -0.02 @ 1,2625
risk: nil, guaranteed profit +1.68% - 26th week report
+ Show Spoiler +28/06/10
Week started at ~1,238. Now the same. No special move. Started falling unfourtunate. Low at 1.2343. I'm going to close the position with a few loss (kinda time-out termination with a week with zero profit). Instead moving my stop-loss level higher to 1.22. Overall risk 2,60%. Workday ending at 1.2308.
29/06/10
Closing position with loss. No opportunity for growth as I think. Yesterday relative high is 70 pips lower than previous one. Dynamic resist also falls. Next trade levels at 1.22 and 1.247.
Price came down to 1.215 by the end of the day.
30/06/10
Price rebounded from 1.215 (major level as already rebounded on 19th and 27th of May). Day high at 1.23
01/07/10
The price tried ~1.22 level but failed. 1.215 rebound proved true. The moment where I should've bought. Looking at it now I can conclude that was a mistake.
Next price rocked-jumped over 1.25. Bought +0.04 at 1.2497 as both 1.24 and 1.246 resists highly penetrated. Risk is 2.14% The growth possibility still stay high. However should have bought at ~1.2305 due to: a) lows for three consisted days rises, b) high of the previous day penetrated, c) major resist level stood for three times already.
02/07/10
Price stays at 1.248~1.25. My half-way stop seems to be good. Just waiting now.
+ Show Spoiler +stats for the end of the week:
Balance: $3 698,46 -7,54%
open +0,04 @ 1,2497
stop: -0.04 @ 1,2300
risk: 2,14% - 25th week report
+ Show Spoiler +21/06/10
Level 1,2452 penetrated with a huge gap open. Gap was also filled with a shadow which lowers the risk of downfall. Moreover the shadow seems like bounced from dynamic resist level (the diagonal line at 4H chart).
In general the normal risk level for Daily charts is ~1.214. You can see price bounced this level several times before going down.
However it is quite a lot to lose in cash if the entire stop-loss will be at 1.214, so I decided to unite Daily and 4H charts. And this is how:
I'm buying 0.05 with a minor stop 0.02 @ 1.235 (penetrating will show me the ~45° angle resist is broken); and major stop 0.03 @ 1.214 (penetrating will show me the entire growth trend is broken). Thus I will risk with ~$25 for minor and ~$95 for major stops. Total risk will be ~3% which is affordable.
UPD
Buy: +0.05 @ 1.2458
stop: -0.02 @ 1.2350
stop: -0.03 @ 1.2140
risk: 3.07%
22/06/10
The fall followed the growth last day. I've like bought at a high price.
Nevertheless the trend-change level is at ~1.214.
23/06/10
The low level for now is at ~1.2243. My 1.214 stop looks good. No actions here. Waiting.
Fibo levels (pulse 1.1875~1.2467):
38,2% - ~1,224
50% - ~1,217
62,8% - ~1,2095
Now 38.2% is under question (low exactly at that level). If true - add position / lower risk.
Otherwise fibos for week charts (pulse 1.3691~1.1875):
38,2% - ~1,257
50% - ~1,278
62,8% - ~1,299
So if 38.2% rebound is true, growth after 1.257 is very questionable.
After workhours low was 1.2208 (38.2% fibo looks penetrated). However I won't lower the risk as this is a question of $10 in cash.
24/06/10
Even though the low is ~30 pips lower than my calculated fibo, it may be called a fibo-rebound.
25/06/10
Yesterday candle have a small body and quite a big shadows (both down and upwards). However Friday (for now) is more than Thursday, and Thursday is more than Wednesday. All Ok. Waiting for next week.
+ Show Spoiler +stats for the end of the week:
Balance: $3 749,42 -6,26%
open +0,03 @ 1,2458
stop: -0.03 @ 1,2140
risk: 3,07% - 24th week report
+ Show Spoiler +14/06/10
A small 15 pips gap open of the week. The resist level of 1.21~1.215 I assumed before did not stand. Next important point before my stop-loss is 1.2206. And I did not stand either. Lost 2%. The highest point of the day was 1.2297
15/06/10
As the day opened at ~1.22 I assume the next importnant breakdown/rebound level at ~1.235; however ~1.245 is still more important. Waiting for the price reach the levels.
16/06/10
The maximum point exactly at 1.235. And the price was all day long volatile at ~1.232. Still waiting
17/06/10
Everything looked like a consolidation with a max point at ~1.235. I decided to buy at ~1.22 or lower (to be sure this is a true consolidation). However Euro grew a lot by the end of the day. Max point at 1.2408
18/06/10
The current maximum is 1.2412. RSI indicates the price successfully left the "oversold" mark and now floating at ~1.24. Now waiting for 1.245 level activity. That's the level I'm willing to buy or sell from.
+ Show Spoiler +stats for the end of the week:
Balance: $3 808,22 -4,79%
open nil - 23rd week report
+ Show Spoiler +07/06/10
Seems like the price continue to fall from friday. Opened with a small gap. 1.19 level breakdown. Now floating within 1.20~1.19.
Adding short position: -0.01 (total opened -0.06). Stop @ 1.2222
08/06/10
Continued floating withn 1.20~1.19.
Adding short: -0.01 (total opened -0.07) with the same stop.
09/06/10
Successful 1.2 level breakdown. Max at 1.2044. Short additions were too hasty. Noted as mistake.
The main resist level is 1.21~1.215 (as it was a good support for May 18-19 and May 26-27. If the price penetrate this level short positions should be cancelled.
10/06/10
Resist level mentioned before still stands [Image attached].
11/06/10
The highest point for the day (and the week) is 1.2147. That is actually higher than dynamic resist. I'm still holding my position as I assume this is a "truth point". Level breakdown confirmation and my stop level are approximately the same. Thus waiting. If price falls I will add short position and moving the stop level lower. If price rises I will fix the loss and wait for another opportunity (next important level is at ~1.245).
+ Show Spoiler +stats for the end of the week:
Balance: $3 877,80 -3,06%
open: -0,03 @ 1,2130
open: -0,02 @ 1,2217
open: -0,01 @ 1,1950
open: -0,01 @ 1,1911
stop: +0,07 @ 1,2222
risk: 2,24%
Glossary
+ Show Spoiler +
+ Show Spoiler +
fx - FOREX,
Gap - the void between previous close and open prices
Long positions - buying, gaining profit from price rise
Short positions - selling, gaining profit from price fall
Level - the "level" without any adjective here means a static level.
Such levels are based on local min/max points. When price repeatedly "touch" a level without penetration the level is said to be confirmed. More touches more important such a level is.
Dynamic level - tangent line drawn through local max/mins (may also be a "channel" if parallel line are used). On example picture such dynamic level is confirmed repeatedly and penetrated (breakdowned) at the last day.
Personally I suppose static levels are more important than dynamic.
Resist/support - the roof or floor levels from which the price is "bouncing".
Breakdown/rebound - so penetrating the level is a breakdown which often indicates the change of the trend. Rebound confirms the strength of the level.
Gap - the void between previous close and open prices
Long positions - buying, gaining profit from price rise
Short positions - selling, gaining profit from price fall
Level - the "level" without any adjective here means a static level.
Such levels are based on local min/max points. When price repeatedly "touch" a level without penetration the level is said to be confirmed. More touches more important such a level is.
Dynamic level - tangent line drawn through local max/mins (may also be a "channel" if parallel line are used). On example picture such dynamic level is confirmed repeatedly and penetrated (breakdowned) at the last day.
Personally I suppose static levels are more important than dynamic.
Resist/support - the roof or floor levels from which the price is "bouncing".
Breakdown/rebound - so penetrating the level is a breakdown which often indicates the change of the trend. Rebound confirms the strength of the level.