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Rus_Brain's FOREX stats 2010

Blogs > Rus_Brain
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1 2 Next All
Rus_Brain
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Russian Federation1893 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-07-09 07:57:33
June 11 2010 06:14 GMT
#1
As most of you guys wish me to translate my stats/thoughts in trading I will start today.

      Info:
      EUR/USD,
      Day chart,
      Trend-following trading system, based on level breakdown/rebound,
      ~3-5% risk level for a signle trade.

Started with $4000 in February, 2010
Updating once a week on Fridays.
Original reports here, or directly through google.wave.


You can check the charts here.
  • 27th week report
    05/07/10
    Holding this position open as price is still above 1.25. However ~1.25 could be a strong resist, being support at November'08-March'09.

    06/07/10
    Most volatile day of the week. Low at 1.248 and high at 1.2661. No actions. Just waiting.

    07/07/10
    Still waiting whether price break or rebound from 25 May level (1.27)

    08/07/10
    25 May level broken. However there are no serious movements. Day high at 1.2711

    09/07/10
    Price is moving at ~1.27 being unable to form a strong breakdown. Also stohastic signals of possible drop.
    I decided to close half of position. Also I moved my stop level to 1.2625, making 1.68% guaranteed profit.

    Show nested quote +
    Weekly chart shows we are at dynamic resist level. A downfall with new strength is more expected. Thus my actions are as follows:
    Current +0.02 position is opened at least for this friday (or untill it reaches the stop-level). If growth continues I'm just taking profit from lowered position. If drop confirmes I will sell a small position with stop at current relative maximums. Next if price will form another relative minimum higher than 1.215 I will buy again with a greater volume than I bought this week. If 1.215 won't stand I'll keep selling.
    [image loading]


    + Show Spoiler +
    stats for the end of the week:
    Balance: $3 766,06 -5,85%
    open +0,02 @ 1,2497
    stop: -0.02 @ 1,2625
    risk: nil, guaranteed profit +1.68%


  • 26th week report
    + Show Spoiler +
    28/06/10
    Week started at ~1,238. Now the same. No special move. Started falling unfourtunate. Low at 1.2343. I'm going to close the position with a few loss (kinda time-out termination with a week with zero profit). Instead moving my stop-loss level higher to 1.22. Overall risk 2,60%. Workday ending at 1.2308.

    29/06/10
    Closing position with loss. No opportunity for growth as I think. Yesterday relative high is 70 pips lower than previous one. Dynamic resist also falls. Next trade levels at 1.22 and 1.247.
    Price came down to 1.215 by the end of the day.

    30/06/10
    Price rebounded from 1.215 (major level as already rebounded on 19th and 27th of May). Day high at 1.23

    01/07/10
    The price tried ~1.22 level but failed. 1.215 rebound proved true. The moment where I should've bought. Looking at it now I can conclude that was a mistake.
    Next price rocked-jumped over 1.25. Bought +0.04 at 1.2497 as both 1.24 and 1.246 resists highly penetrated. Risk is 2.14% The growth possibility still stay high. However should have bought at ~1.2305 due to: a) lows for three consisted days rises, b) high of the previous day penetrated, c) major resist level stood for three times already.

    02/07/10
    Price stays at 1.248~1.25. My half-way stop seems to be good. Just waiting now.

    + Show Spoiler +
    stats for the end of the week:
    Balance: $3 698,46 -7,54%
    open +0,04 @ 1,2497
    stop: -0.04 @ 1,2300
    risk: 2,14%


  • 25th week report
    + Show Spoiler +
    21/06/10
    Level 1,2452 penetrated with a huge gap open. Gap was also filled with a shadow which lowers the risk of downfall. Moreover the shadow seems like bounced from dynamic resist level (the diagonal line at 4H chart).
    In general the normal risk level for Daily charts is ~1.214. You can see price bounced this level several times before going down.
    [image loading]
    However it is quite a lot to lose in cash if the entire stop-loss will be at 1.214, so I decided to unite Daily and 4H charts. And this is how:
    [image loading]
    I'm buying 0.05 with a minor stop 0.02 @ 1.235 (penetrating will show me the ~45° angle resist is broken); and major stop 0.03 @ 1.214 (penetrating will show me the entire growth trend is broken). Thus I will risk with ~$25 for minor and ~$95 for major stops. Total risk will be ~3% which is affordable.
    UPD
    Buy: +0.05 @ 1.2458
    stop: -0.02 @ 1.2350
    stop: -0.03 @ 1.2140
    risk: 3.07%

    22/06/10
    The fall followed the growth last day. I've like bought at a high price.
    Nevertheless the trend-change level is at ~1.214.

    23/06/10
    The low level for now is at ~1.2243. My 1.214 stop looks good. No actions here. Waiting.
    Fibo levels (pulse 1.1875~1.2467):
    38,2% - ~1,224
    50% - ~1,217
    62,8% - ~1,2095
    Now 38.2% is under question (low exactly at that level). If true - add position / lower risk.
    Otherwise fibos for week charts (pulse 1.3691~1.1875):
    38,2% - ~1,257
    50% - ~1,278
    62,8% - ~1,299
    So if 38.2% rebound is true, growth after 1.257 is very questionable.
    After workhours low was 1.2208 (38.2% fibo looks penetrated). However I won't lower the risk as this is a question of $10 in cash.

    24/06/10
    Even though the low is ~30 pips lower than my calculated fibo, it may be called a fibo-rebound.

    25/06/10
    Yesterday candle have a small body and quite a big shadows (both down and upwards). However Friday (for now) is more than Thursday, and Thursday is more than Wednesday. All Ok. Waiting for next week.

    + Show Spoiler +
    stats for the end of the week:
    Balance: $3 749,42 -6,26%
    open +0,03 @ 1,2458
    stop: -0.03 @ 1,2140
    risk: 3,07%


  • 24th week report
    + Show Spoiler +
    14/06/10
    A small 15 pips gap open of the week. The resist level of 1.21~1.215 I assumed before did not stand. Next important point before my stop-loss is 1.2206. And I did not stand either. Lost 2%. The highest point of the day was 1.2297

    15/06/10
    As the day opened at ~1.22 I assume the next importnant breakdown/rebound level at ~1.235; however ~1.245 is still more important. Waiting for the price reach the levels.

    16/06/10
    The maximum point exactly at 1.235. And the price was all day long volatile at ~1.232. Still waiting

    17/06/10
    Everything looked like a consolidation with a max point at ~1.235. I decided to buy at ~1.22 or lower (to be sure this is a true consolidation). However Euro grew a lot by the end of the day. Max point at 1.2408

    18/06/10
    The current maximum is 1.2412. RSI indicates the price successfully left the "oversold" mark and now floating at ~1.24. Now waiting for 1.245 level activity. That's the level I'm willing to buy or sell from.

    + Show Spoiler +
    stats for the end of the week:
    Balance: $3 808,22 -4,79%
    open nil


  • 23rd week report
    + Show Spoiler +
    07/06/10
    Seems like the price continue to fall from friday. Opened with a small gap. 1.19 level breakdown. Now floating within 1.20~1.19.
    Adding short position: -0.01 (total opened -0.06). Stop @ 1.2222

    08/06/10
    Continued floating withn 1.20~1.19.
    Adding short: -0.01 (total opened -0.07) with the same stop.

    09/06/10
    Successful 1.2 level breakdown. Max at 1.2044. Short additions were too hasty. Noted as mistake.
    The main resist level is 1.21~1.215 (as it was a good support for May 18-19 and May 26-27. If the price penetrate this level short positions should be cancelled.

    10/06/10
    Resist level mentioned before still stands [Image attached].

    11/06/10
    The highest point for the day (and the week) is 1.2147. That is actually higher than dynamic resist. I'm still holding my position as I assume this is a "truth point". Level breakdown confirmation and my stop level are approximately the same. Thus waiting. If price falls I will add short position and moving the stop level lower. If price rises I will fix the loss and wait for another opportunity (next important level is at ~1.245).

    + Show Spoiler +
    stats for the end of the week:
    Balance: $3 877,80 -3,06%
    open: -0,03 @ 1,2130
    open: -0,02 @ 1,2217
    open: -0,01 @ 1,1950
    open: -0,01 @ 1,1911
    stop: +0,07 @ 1,2222
    risk: 2,24%




[image loading]


Glossary

+ Show Spoiler +
fx - FOREX,

Gap - the void between previous close and open prices
[image loading]


Long positions - buying, gaining profit from price rise

Short positions - selling, gaining profit from price fall

Level - the "level" without any adjective here means a static level.
Such levels are based on local min/max points. When price repeatedly "touch" a level without penetration the level is said to be confirmed. More touches more important such a level is.
[image loading]


Dynamic level - tangent line drawn through local max/mins (may also be a "channel" if parallel line are used). On example picture such dynamic level is confirmed repeatedly and penetrated (breakdowned) at the last day.
Personally I suppose static levels are more important than dynamic.
[image loading]

Resist/support - the roof or floor levels from which the price is "bouncing".

Breakdown/rebound - so penetrating the level is a breakdown which often indicates the change of the trend. Rebound confirms the strength of the level.


***
patyrykin.net
fanta[Rn]
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
Japan2465 Posts
June 11 2010 06:22 GMT
#2
Very interesting! I don't understand the terminology but I'll look that up, please keep it coming
Rus_Brain
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Russian Federation1893 Posts
June 11 2010 06:31 GMT
#3
On June 11 2010 15:22 fanta[Rn] wrote:
Very interesting! I don't understand the terminology but I'll look that up, please keep it coming
Oh! I'll make a glossary now
patyrykin.net
CaucasianAsian
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
Korea (South)11577 Posts
June 11 2010 06:34 GMT
#4
so you're trying to make money by trading the USD and the EUR?
Calendar@ Fish Server: `iOps]..Stark
Rus_Brain
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Russian Federation1893 Posts
June 11 2010 07:01 GMT
#5
On June 11 2010 15:34 CaucasianAsian wrote:
so you're trying to make money by trading the USD and the EUR?
Exactly
patyrykin.net
Licmyobelisk
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
Philippines3682 Posts
June 11 2010 07:27 GMT
#6
Rus, May I ask how can a noob like me start this FOREX trading? Can you provide any specific website that would teach me the technical terms and stuff like that so that I may understand your weekly post? Thanks and I really appreciate people like you making great post like this one
I don't think I've ever wished my opponent good luck prior to a game. When I play, I play to win. I hope every opponent I ever have is cursed with fucking terrible luck. I hope they're stuck playing underneath a stepladder with a black cat in attendance a
Rus_Brain
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Russian Federation1893 Posts
June 11 2010 07:53 GMT
#7
On June 11 2010 16:27 Licmyobelisk wrote:
Rus, May I ask how can a noob like me start this FOREX trading? Can you provide any specific website that would teach me the technical terms and stuff like that so that I may understand your weekly post? Thanks and I really appreciate people like you making great post like this one
If you prefer technical analysis I'de recommend to read Technical Analysis by Jack D. Schwager first
patyrykin.net
eddoo
Profile Joined March 2010
30 Posts
June 11 2010 08:45 GMT
#8
I used to write machine learning algorithms to paper trade currencies, and I currently believe there is too much "noise" if trends exist at all. I think "technical analysis" is more akin to gambling if you're not looking for arbitrage opportunities, and even if you are the big players will get there first. So more than anything... good luck.
fanta[Rn]
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
Japan2465 Posts
June 11 2010 09:15 GMT
#9
What you just said reminds me of the book "Fooled by randomness"
such a good read
Rus_Brain
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Russian Federation1893 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-11 10:32:16
June 11 2010 09:42 GMT
#10
On June 11 2010 17:45 eddoo wrote:
I used to write machine learning algorithms to paper trade currencies, and I currently believe there is too much "noise" if trends exist at all. I think "technical analysis" is more akin to gambling if you're not looking for arbitrage opportunities, and even if you are the big players will get there first. So more than anything... good luck.
I believe biger scale reduces the noice to minimum. Day is ok

Technical analysis may be the pure gambling, but
We often hear something like "this stock is so great, the balances are perfect, financial stability is superb, stocks are outsold", recommendation "strong buy". But stocks fall even more

And opposed to gambling you can control your risk. Like buying straddle options in order to earn both from rise or fall
patyrykin.net
Rus_Brain
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Russian Federation1893 Posts
June 18 2010 06:31 GMT
#11
added 24th week report:
[image loading]
patyrykin.net
kzn
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States1218 Posts
June 18 2010 06:57 GMT
#12
On June 11 2010 16:27 Licmyobelisk wrote:
Rus, May I ask how can a noob like me start this FOREX trading? Can you provide any specific website that would teach me the technical terms and stuff like that so that I may understand your weekly post? Thanks and I really appreciate people like you making great post like this one


I wouldn't suggest starting at all unless its just for fun.

Markets are close enough to efficient that you have to catch onto something that almost nobody else has noticed to consistently beat them on speculative trading, and you're competing with massive hedge funds that can and will sink millions into R&D to find precisely that kind of advantage.
Like a G6
endy
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Switzerland8970 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-18 07:39:54
June 18 2010 07:39 GMT
#13
On June 11 2010 17:45 eddoo wrote:
I used to write machine learning algorithms to paper trade currencies, and I currently believe there is too much "noise" if trends exist at all. I think "technical analysis" is more akin to gambling if you're not looking for arbitrage opportunities, and even if you are the big players will get there first. So more than anything... good luck.


I blindly follow the orders from americanbulls.com and it works great 98% of the time lol. It's based on technical analysis and provides a great return without using your brain

edit : typo
ॐ
Rus_Brain
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Russian Federation1893 Posts
June 18 2010 09:52 GMT
#14
On June 18 2010 16:39 endy wrote:
I blindly follow the orders from americanbulls.com and it works great 98% of the time lol. It's based on technical analysis and provides a great return without using your brain
If I'm not mistaken they only cover stocks on nyse, nasdaq, amex and some others.
patyrykin.net
emucxg
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Finland4559 Posts
June 18 2010 10:18 GMT
#15
woow im really interested... keep updating!
Philar
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Hong Kong125 Posts
June 18 2010 10:41 GMT
#16
anyone cashed in on Theratechnologies Inc. (TSE:TH) last month? went down to $2 closing, then slowly crawled its way back up to $4.50~ in a day.
Pure.Calm
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United Kingdom196 Posts
June 18 2010 13:54 GMT
#17
Yeah really interested in this, Thanks
Rus_Brain
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Russian Federation1893 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-21 06:25:05
June 21 2010 06:13 GMT
#18
Level 1,2452 penetrated with a huge gap open. Gap was also filled with a shadow which lowers the risk of downfall. Moreover the shadow seems like bounced from dynamic resist level (the diagonal line at 4H chart).

In general the normal risk level for Daily charts is ~1.214. You can see price bounced this level several times before going down.
[image loading]

However it is quite a lot to lose in cash if the entire stop-loss will be at 1.214, so I decided to unite Daily and 4H charts. And this is how:

[image loading]
I'm buying 0.05 with a minor stop 0.02 @ 1.235 (penetrating will show me the ~45° angle resist is broken); and major stop 0.03 @ 1.214 (penetrating will show me the entire growth trend is broken). Thus I will risk with ~$25 for minor and ~$95 for major stops. Total risk will be ~3% which is affordable.


UPD
Buy: +0.05 @ 1.2458
stop: -0.02 @ 1.2350
stop: -0.03 @ 1.2140
risk: 3.07%
patyrykin.net
Sadistx
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Zimbabwe5568 Posts
June 21 2010 06:34 GMT
#19
I tried Forex trading back in 2005 and was wildly disappointed. I just didn't see a way to reliably predict short term trends like I can with stocks, so much goes into currency and literally anything can affect it. Stocks on the other hand seem to follow press releases and general market trends, so you can predict them ahead of time with better accuracy.

I was practice trading stocks from Feb '10 to May '10 and made ~35% return in that period. Granted, the market was good (before the oil spill and Greece corrected the markets by 10%), and I made a lot of really stupid greedy decisions, but I still think it's decent.

I'm about to start trading with real money to hopefully earn some money for a SC2 casting PC.
Rus_Brain
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Russian Federation1893 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-21 06:46:20
June 21 2010 06:46 GMT
#20
On June 21 2010 15:34 Sadistx wrote:I was practice trading stocks from Feb '10 to May '10 and made ~35% return in that period.

What was your deposit, risk limit and trading strategy?
patyrykin.net
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