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[MSL Spoiler] Jaedong vs. Flash, Game 3

Blogs > EvoChamber
Post a Reply
1 2 3 Next All
EvoChamber
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France2505 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-01-23 16:52:56
January 23 2010 16:47 GMT
#1
First things first. Kona made a long, excellent and very detailed post which is worth reading in full. Not just because it's excellent, but because the modifiers "long" and "very detailed" seldom accompany the phrase "Kona posts."

konablog:
http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=110668

Also, Kwark has been posting his ass off making coherent, logical arguments supporting the decision arrived at by the referees. If anyone feels otherwise, his arguments are the ones to beat.

I think we can all agree that what happened was a tremendous letdown for literally everyone involved (with the possible exception of iloveoov). Players, coaches, fans, E-SPORTS: everyone lost out. Fan death is real, and it's horrifying. This was a disaster. It's far worse than unfortunate.

But short of having access to a time machine, there is no way to fix anything. The most that can be done is to minimize the damage. Either of the possible decisions the referees could have made would have been horrendously unfair. Since there was no best decision to be made, they had to make the least worst decision. They decided that the least unjust thing to do would be to award Jaedong the win. I agree with that decision.

It's probably true that the referees could only make their decision based on the limited information available to them (since all replays were lost they only had what was recorded for broadcast) in a short period of time. There's literally no other evidence to work with. Here's the VOD:



There's a lot of things that happened off the screen, but what we know for sure is that for at least four to five minutes prior to the blackout (18:40 on the game clock) Flash had been investing all his mineral and gas income into a giant SK timing attack, pumping infantry from eight barracks and vessels from two starports. If he had any kind of surplus left over after spending that heavily it could only be marginal. He had virtually nothing to work with at the time of the blackout. At 17:49 we see one of the patches at Flash's natural disappear; given how well Flash maynards and how thick he saturated his lines, there's no doubt that the other patches were almost exhausted as well. Flash's main was mined out. He had just begun mining the six fresh patches at the mineral only south of his natural. His first refinery finished at 3:20, his second refinery at 7:40. Gas mines at 100 units every 20 seconds. This leaves Flash at the time of the blackout with 400 gas left in his main geyser and 1700 gas left at his natural geyser. Knowing this we can be certain that Flash's war machine was on its last legs when the shortage hit. At that time the chances of his breaking Jaedong's southwest base had reached zero. Three sunkens, defilers, lings, and ultras, plus rapid reinforcements via nydus. Flash's only option was to cling to his new mineral line, being very proactive with the few vessels on hand and irradiating every single defiler before it could cast swarm. He would have to stop attacking Jaedong, give up map control and make a last stand at the min only, and as the final seconds of the minimap show, that's precisely what he was about to do.

A problem is that Flash's only source of income happens to be exposed from three directions, including the route between it and Flash's barracks. Even in the highly unlikely event that Flash could fend off every attack before a swarm hit, Jaedong also had the option of going straight for Flash's barracks; the production off 6 mineral patches would hardly suffice to defend it. (Flash taking a fourth base would be clearly out of the question since he had sacrificed map control plus his only potential fourth is also highly exposed). Plus being preemptive with irradiate would be highly risky against Jaedong's scourge control (and with four and a quarter gas Jaedong would not lack for scourge), plus Jaedong's economy was still quite robust (salvaging most of the drones from the northeast base was huge [see 14:01]), plus Jaedong wouldn't even need defilers: with a superior economy and map control he could just crash ultraling into Flash's min only and whittle Flash's welfare SK into nothingness.

Kona mentioned Savior/TT as a case in which it isn't over until it's over, but this wasn't a fight between an over-the-hill Zerg and an old Protoss who never made it up the hill to begin with in an elimination contest on weird-ass Neo Requiem. This was a fight between two kings of the hill. Kings make errors, but they don't make outrageous blunders, and Jaedong would have had to make about three of them to let Flash have even a glimpse of victory in that game. Flash had a chance of victory when the lights went out, but it was far, far closer to zero percent than his supporters will admit.

Awarding Jaedong the win nullified that microscopic possibility. Ordering a rematch would strip Jaedong of all the advantages he had accumulated with such difficulty over 18 minutes and 40 seconds and his careful preparations on that map (the 3hatch before pool, the fast secret 3rd expansion in the northeast) would be null and void. A rematch was infinitely more likely to strip Jaedong of an actual victory than awarding Jaedong the victory was to strip Flash of a potential victory. Neither option was fair, but the latter is evidently and overwhelmingly less unfair.

****
That's not awful writing, DAMMIT. It's perfectly sensical english construction.
motbob
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States12546 Posts
January 23 2010 16:50 GMT
#2
...can I quote some of the stuff in this blog post for my article?
ModeratorGood content always wins.
EvoChamber
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France2505 Posts
January 23 2010 16:51 GMT
#3
On January 24 2010 01:50 motbob wrote:
...can I quote some of the stuff in this blog post for my article?


Absolutely.
That's not awful writing, DAMMIT. It's perfectly sensical english construction.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43557 Posts
January 23 2010 16:55 GMT
#4
Evo's got my back.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Xxio
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Canada5565 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-01-23 17:01:08
January 23 2010 17:00 GMT
#5
nvm i dont care anymore
KTY
swanized
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
Canada2480 Posts
January 23 2010 17:04 GMT
#6
Kinda sum up my opinion on the matter also note that Jaedong had more supply(at least thats what the korean commentators said) and more ressources then flash at time of blackout
Writer
PoP
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
France15446 Posts
January 23 2010 17:06 GMT
#7
Agreed on every point.
Administrator
neobowman
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Canada3324 Posts
January 23 2010 17:07 GMT
#8
So many threads popping up about this. They really should remake Korea's electrical supply so that they can handle the epicness of Flash vs Jaedong (If that's possible)
LucasWoJ
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States936 Posts
January 23 2010 17:09 GMT
#9
You're an excellent poster. Great blog post.
"Of all the words of mice and men, the saddest are it could have been." - Kurt Vonnegut
Ikonn
Profile Joined October 2009
Netherlands1958 Posts
January 23 2010 17:09 GMT
#10
I agree that JD was way closer to victory and as such this option was more fair, but what counts for me and probably all other Flash fans is what Flash thought about it. Obviously he thought he still had a fighting chance because he isn't one to stay needlessly long in lost games (see the games he lost in the series against Calm and Kwanro and game 1 in this series). Now being forced (damn my English vocabulary is letting me down today) to lose the game when he thought he still had a chance is obviously going to hamper his concentration, let alone all the events that happened afterwards with his pops and his team.

On the other hand you could argue that replaying could have had the same effect on JD and perhaps his coaches/parents would have gone crazy. Basically it was a lose/lose situation for KeSPA and the player who would be decided against was going to get a lot of trouble getting his stuff back on track.
It was the power outage that killed Flash (and the finals), not KeSPA's decision.

This post may not be helpful at all but I just needed to vent.
NarutO
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
Germany18839 Posts
January 23 2010 17:21 GMT
#11
5-star post. Completely agreed. I like both and I find it really anticlimatic that game 3 ended in such a manner, but it can't be helped. Stuff like that happens.
CommentatorPolt | MMA | Jjakji | BoxeR | NaDa | MVP | MKP ... truly inspiring.
samachking
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Bahrain4949 Posts
January 23 2010 17:58 GMT
#12
Sums up my thoughts in a good manner. I really think Flash fans and JD anti fans should cool their heads off and consider the implications of the regame, especially with the fact that JD's build was simply irreplaceable and had to go a long way and fought so hard on that imbalanced map in order to create an advantage and win the game. A regame will give Flash a much bigger advantage over JD considering JD's build + situation. The game was practically won, Flash was only mining 6 patches.
"And then Earthlings discovered tools. Suddenly agreeing with friends could be a form of suicide or worse. But agreements went on, not for the sake of common sense, or decency, or self preservation, but for friendliness."
Chef
Profile Blog Joined August 2005
10810 Posts
January 23 2010 18:03 GMT
#13
I remember watching these games and thinking right away "I'm going to blog about this." Then I saw like 10 blogs already made about it :X
LEGEND!! LEGEND!!
hyst.eric.al
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States2332 Posts
January 23 2010 18:26 GMT
#14
great blog.

one of the better ones in comparison to the other fifty billion
Leta , BeSt, Calm fan forever! 김정우, I am sorry I ever lost faith in you.
7mk
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Germany10157 Posts
January 23 2010 18:39 GMT
#15
5/5 I absolutely agree, plus this contained some info i wasnt aware of
beep boop
gyth
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
657 Posts
January 23 2010 18:50 GMT
#16
Basically it was a lose/lose situation for KeSPA and the player who would be decided against was going to get a lot of trouble getting his stuff back on track.

KeSPA did the best they could, they made a decision quickly.


It was the power outage that killed Flash (and the finals), not KeSPA's decision.

Or maybe it was KTs field trip instead of just getting on with the get on.
The plural of anecdote is not data.
jgju
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States454 Posts
January 23 2010 19:20 GMT
#17
Really great, well thought out blog. I appreciate the evidence, and am convinced now (even as a serious Flash fan) that JD deserved game 3. However, the results of game 4 still bother me; it seems like Flash's play was pretty predictable (and sloppy at points) just by virtue of how unhappy he must have been.

Still, JD won fair and square and had better mindgames, especially in game 4. The finals are definitely tainted by MBC's failures, not KeSPA's judgment on game 3.

I hope both players never have to deal with shit like this again.
"For you biting zealots, here's a quote" - Lauryn Hill
jambonkingcool
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Canada186 Posts
January 23 2010 20:18 GMT
#18
"I think we can all agree that what happened was a tremendous letdown for literally everyone involved (with the possible exception of iloveoov)"

Could someone explain me the oov part?
CynanMachae
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Canada1459 Posts
January 23 2010 20:26 GMT
#19
Pretty well written and I fully agree on how you put things together.
Jang Yoon Chul hwaiting!
Failsafe
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States1298 Posts
January 23 2010 20:30 GMT
#20
If instead of a blackout, Flash had simply typed "GG" I would have been a little surprised but it wouldn't have been amiss
MrBitter: Phoenixes... They're like flying hellions. Always cost efficient.
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