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ahh my mistake. i had to be somewhere at 10, but when i checked back, i thought that the town was about to lose because cynan was going to get modkilled and me lynched. my rationale was that it would be better to lose only one person instead of two, because: 1. if cynan dies and flips green, mafia doesn't necessary outnumber the town if they attempt to hit whoever the medic is protecting. 2. i'd say im like 85% sure that cynan is town, but if i'm wrong and cynan is mafia, town has a chance to win still.
as opposed to: 1. me+cynan both getting killed off and mafia wins.
i see now that we have one more day, thank gawd, and there's still the chance to get a mafia lynched. so let me fix my vote:
##Vote Vivi57##
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"1. if cynan dies and flips green, mafia doesn't necessary outnumber the town if they attempt to hit whoever the medic is protecting."
who says there's a medic? there could be no roleblocker and no medic? isn't it F11?
u are making terrible assumptions that seem scummy to me
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what's F11? town DEFINITELY loses if cynan is town, and we both get killed. however, there is a chance town doesn't lose even if cynan is town, if only 1 person gets killed off and if there's a medic. it comes down to probability..no chance versus some chance.
also, foolishness didn't vote.
if he were mafia, me+cynan green, then if him+cynan get modkilled, i get lynched. = ur left with a member of the mafia. from ur comment i'm guessing ur not a medic. so u get hit at night, town loses.
cynan is mafia, me+foolishness green. him+cynan get modkilled, i get lynched. = same situation where ur left with one member of the town, and town loses.
all 3 of us are green=town loses.
of course there's the possibility that cynan/foolishness are mafia together. this doesn't seem like a likely pair to me. but if this were the case, irregardless of how i vote, if cynan+foolishness both had gotten modkilled, it wouldn't have mattered what i did because town would win anyway.
i thought this may have been a repeat of micro-mafia 1 where ppl just didn't show up, but i don't think im making terrible assumptions...in terms of PROBABILITY of town winning, it would've helped our chances.
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well, im green, so put that into your probability
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
At any rate, we shouldn't vote for Cynan if he's going to get modkilled. As madnessman said there will still be a small chance of winning: there must be a medic alive and he must make a save.
Best case scenario Cynan is mafia and we kill his partner as well.
However if Cynan is indeed mafia, we could mess this up if we kill someone who is green. If Cynan is mafia, and we all vote to kill him, then we go to night and we still have one more day alive. If Cynan is mafia and we vote to kill a townie, then there will be 3 people alive and one mafia, and if mafia's night hit goes through it's game over.
So basically even if Cynan is going to get modkilled, we still need to decide if he's mafia or not as that will affect who if anyone we lynch.
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well it's not like he's definitely going to get modkilled. i just assumed so because i thought the day was ending at 10pm est today, and my tl page being on japanese time didn't help.
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im guessing vivi is going to jump on this faster than a your mom joke. in any case, im hoping we'll have more activity and get to see more posting tomorrow.
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Ok sorry guys I couldn't post today, and I did followed up the thread yesterday but I didn't post since there were so little happening and I wanted to give time for people to throw out some votes first.
Because, as it is now, its 3 townies, 2 mafias. With a townie death, mafia is really close to winning so they really must try hard to get a townie lynched. If you look at it that way, they only need ONE vote from one of us (toward a townie) in order to avoid lynching and pretty much win the game (if I'm right, 2 mafia 2 town is a mafia win).
So what do the mafia want? One vote. Best plan? Throw suspicions around, be first to vote to start bandwagons. That's what Vivi and BM did, throwing votes very early, hopeing to get at least one townie to follow them.
Yes, I've been suspicious of Vivi since the beginning. I've also been the one to call Vivi on his bandwagonning of KF91 which he never bothered to answer.
Anyway, I've been looking at the Vivi/Foolishness possibility, because so far Vivi has done a very good job of distancing himself from Foolishness, throwing accusations when it was safe to do so, voting for him, he could even get him lynched and then ride alone to victory, clearing his name up. While this is less of a possibility to me that the BM/Vivi combo, it's worth looking into, but anyway for this day I'm gonna vote Vivi again because he's in both of my possible mafia teams.
Also, for those that are pointing to a me/madnessman mafia combo, just think seriously about it. Yes, from the beggining I've said that I didn't suspect madnessman and just now he said that he thought that I was town. That would be a pretty awesomely bad play to throw out everywhere how we don't suspect the other so that if one get lynched the other dies the next day. Much easier would be to just ignore each other like Vivi and BM have been doing.
Anyway, I've been rambling randomly a bit and my thoughts arent as ordered as I wanted, so I'm gonna say now that I'm voting vivi.
##Vote Vivi57##
Reasons? First, among the possibles mafia teams, he's on both the ones I suspect most (BM/Vivi, Vivi/Foolishness). Also, he's been pretty good at not attaching himself to any bandwagon, like voting for Foolishness alone last day and L on the first day. Also, when I showed up to be quick inactive today he was prertty quick to start bandwagonning me, probably hoping I wouldn't be very much active to defend myself.
Now that I look at that again, Vivi/Foolishness really seems plausible.
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Gah, I never bold my votes ><
Anyway, just for emphasis, ##Vote Vivi57##
yea I know it's not needed but anyway
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On April 07 2010 13:27 CynanMachae wrote: Ok sorry guys I couldn't post today, and I did followed up the thread yesterday but I didn't post since there were so little happening and I wanted to give time for people to throw out some votes first.
Because, as it is now, its 3 townies, 2 mafias. With a townie death, mafia is really close to winning so they really must try hard to get a townie lynched. If you look at it that way, they only need ONE vote from one of us (toward a townie) in order to avoid lynching and pretty much win the game (if I'm right, 2 mafia 2 town is a mafia win).
So what do the mafia want? One vote. Best plan? Throw suspicions around, be first to vote to start bandwagons. That's what Vivi and BM did, throwing votes very early, hopeing to get at least one townie to follow them.
Yes, I've been suspicious of Vivi since the beginning. I've also been the one to call Vivi on his bandwagonning of KF91 which he never bothered to answer.
Anyway, I've been looking at the Vivi/Foolishness possibility, because so far Vivi has done a very good job of distancing himself from Foolishness, throwing accusations when it was safe to do so, voting for him, he could even get him lynched and then ride alone to victory, clearing his name up. While this is less of a possibility to me that the BM/Vivi combo, it's worth looking into, but anyway for this day I'm gonna vote Vivi again because he's in both of my possible mafia teams.
Also, for those that are pointing to a me/madnessman mafia combo, just think seriously about it. Yes, from the beggining I've said that I didn't suspect madnessman and just now he said that he thought that I was town. That would be a pretty awesomely bad play to throw out everywhere how we don't suspect the other so that if one get lynched the other dies the next day. Much easier would be to just ignore each other like Vivi and BM have been doing.
Anyway, I've been rambling randomly a bit and my thoughts arent as ordered as I wanted, so I'm gonna say now that I'm voting vivi.
##Vote Vivi57##
Reasons? First, among the possibles mafia teams, he's on both the ones I suspect most (BM/Vivi, Vivi/Foolishness). Also, he's been pretty good at not attaching himself to any bandwagon, like voting for Foolishness alone last day and L on the first day. Also, when I showed up to be quick inactive today he was prertty quick to start bandwagonning me, probably hoping I wouldn't be very much active to defend myself.
Now that I look at that again, Vivi/Foolishness really seems plausible.
So this would mean you think the arguments between Vivi and I have all been staged?
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like I said, madnessman/cynan for mafia. Doesn't look like they're playing any tricky games, just going allin against me hoping to get one townie to chase.
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well im not chasing and doubles... this game could be in limbo
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im not gonna chase a vivi lynch, nor double up, until i'm fairly certain who the other 2 townies with me are
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i think it might be vivi/madnessman
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i'm so afraid that you guys are going to be split like cynan/madnessman voting for vivi, and vivi/foolishness voting for cynan... i'll have absolutely no idea what to do.
One good thing, though, is that if people ever get to 3 votes on someone (before the deadline), I will be able to be like "one of you is an idiot townie who needs to take their vote off" because there's no possible way you're all 3 town and thus the person you're voting for is probably town too...
like where i know i'm green, lets say vivi, foolishness, and madnessman are all voting for cynanmachae... that would let me know cynanmachae is green, and therefore i have two confirmable greens... that would let me and cynan vote for someone, and say, "hey, the other green guy, don't fucking lose the game for us moron". the only problem here is it would be 2 v 2 and it'd be on us to convince someone... it's hard to convince someone whose mind is made up.
I'm assuming that we have until the deadline, though, and that if any point someone hits 3 votes they don't auto-die. If my assumption is not correct, then the above scenario is void. In that case, people who are green should play like I am playing, and refrain from putting two votes on the same person. Following that, it pretty much confirms CynanMachae as mafia to me. Him putting a 2nd vote on someone is really suspicious to me. I would love to just jump right in with vivi, but i'm wary of this scenario:
madnessman cynanmachae
both voting for
vivi57
who is voting for lets say cynanmachae with bill murray
then foolishness votes vivi at the last second and laughs at us.
to be honest, though, i don't know who is what. early play indicates foolishness as red to me, but his late play is making me think otherwise. early play made me think madnessman is green, but he feels scummy as shit right now.
another scenario i'm worried about is vivi57 foolishness
vs
madnessman cynanmachae
i would probably fuck up and vote wrong here
people need to talk more, we need to figure out who is what, and we can't do that if townies dont try to help each other go over all the scenarios to figure out who is town and who is mafia
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On March 31 2010 15:35 madnessman wrote: ugh crap. I've just realized that I most likely won't be able to get on tomorrow before the day cycle ends, so i will have to cast my vote now.
i don't have enough of a basis to vote for flamewheel, esp. since IF he is town, the effort he puts into his posts indicate that he will strive to participate and contribute as the game goes on. on the other hand kf has shown no sign of participating and aiding the town other than "i'll wait for ppl to post first"... In such an early stage of the game, i think kf's blatant lack of effort or quality posting is indicative of mafia trying to hide--or otherwise a townie with sheer disregard. sigh, i guess with these time constraints, it's enough of a basis for me to vote for him.
##vote KF91##
you're green, aren't you?
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IF you were red, you would have wanted flamewheel dead, as he was very active and pro-town
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On April 01 2010 11:19 Foolishness wrote: The main difference in not voting Cynan is because Cynan can be held accountable, RoL cannot. Cynan has actually taken the time to defend himself and respond to posts
u ready to hold him accountable yet, or you gonna active lurk for longer?
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If I'm red, who would be my partner? Foolishness? Doesnt make much sense, since the beginning he was calling me up. Vivi? Doesn't make any sense either.
That leave either you or madnessman, Bill. You probably know if you're mafia or not, so you just need to make your mind on madnessman.
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