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United States24343 Posts
On October 29 2020 10:25 WombaT wrote: Does the sitting President have to attend an inauguration or do they just concede and thats them done? Trump is not required to go to inauguration. However, I expect that Biden is going to have the white house deeply fumigated during the inauguration, so if Trump doesn't leave he will choke to death.
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On October 29 2020 09:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 09:54 Shingi11 wrote:On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote: I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft. We assume that is how it going to work. Trump has not acknowledged a peaceful transfer of power Whether he likes it or not, he'd lose power on Inauguration Day. Biden would become president, regardless of where he's sworn in or even if there's no public display.
While I agree what happens when Biden wins and the electors vote for Biden. In the three months time Trump disagrees and says he won but california shipped illegals everywhere to vote 30 times and that is why he lost so it does not count.
Then his 3 cronies that he put on the SCOTUS agree with him say he won.
Who takes office on the 3rd
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On October 29 2020 10:30 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 09:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On October 29 2020 09:54 Shingi11 wrote:On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote: I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft. We assume that is how it going to work. Trump has not acknowledged a peaceful transfer of power Whether he likes it or not, he'd lose power on Inauguration Day. Biden would become president, regardless of where he's sworn in or even if there's no public display. While I agree what happens when Biden wins and the electors vote for Biden. In the three months time Trump disagrees and says he won but california shipped illegals everywhere to vote 30 times and that is why he lost so it does not count. Then his 3 cronies that he put on the SCOTUS agree with him say he won. Who takes office on the 3rd
I don't know if the SCOTUS-contesting-the-votes process is quite as simple as them arbitrarily deciding to simply give Trump any state he wants without any actual reason whatsoever.
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Northern Ireland20818 Posts
On October 29 2020 10:30 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 09:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On October 29 2020 09:54 Shingi11 wrote:On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote: I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft. We assume that is how it going to work. Trump has not acknowledged a peaceful transfer of power Whether he likes it or not, he'd lose power on Inauguration Day. Biden would become president, regardless of where he's sworn in or even if there's no public display. While I agree what happens when Biden wins and the electors vote for Biden. In the three months time Trump disagrees and says he won but california shipped illegals everywhere to vote 30 times and that is why he lost so it does not count. Then his 3 cronies that he put on the SCOTUS agree with him say he won. Who takes office on the 3rd I just don’t see it.
Trump has detestable sycophants around him sure, I don’t think the GOP at large like him, I don’t think his SC nominees do either. Not to the extent they’ll bat for him in such a scenario anyway.
Trump hasn’t shifted the GOP at large in any permanent sense, they bent in the face of a Presidential victory and that the base forces behind that expected them to play ball, and if they don’t there’s the threat of primary challengers etc.
If Trump gets blasted in this election I think that pressure is lessened quite considerably.
It’s not entirely ideological either, it’s Trump. It’s quite apt given how Trump seems to view the world in an entirely transactional sense, people will bend when he has the cards but when he doesn’t they’ll cut him loose, his behaviour is not one to inspire loyalty and putting one’s neck out outside of a scenario where he has leverage.
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On October 29 2020 10:25 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote: I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft. 4 years ago I made a Facebook post in the early hours of the morning that prior polling data and early exit data indicated Trump was done and I was away to bed to return tomorrow to mock the MAGA hat wearers. The next day was not especially enjoyable, especially with the hangover. Does the sitting President have to attend an inauguration or do they just concede and thats them done? After the next president is sworn in, the previous one loses all powers and titles of the office. The big one is commander in chief of the armed forces. (I believe the swearing in is almost entirely ceremonial too : if Biden for some reason can't swear in, then it falls to Pelosi, I think, or whoever the next Speaker is. Trump loses power no matter what Jan 21st if he loses.)
IE: Trump not conceding means nothing. He still loses power if enough states certify that he didn't win their election.
Biden can literally just have the military or secret service drag him out of the white house if he's overstaying his welcome (it's unlikely to come to this).
The only way Trump can maintain power if he loses is a literal military coup, and he's just not popular enough with the military to do that. While the enlisted like him, the officer corps has generally always despised him, and I've heard no signs of that improving in the slightest, especially since he's vocally attacked any generals he hired away (ie Mattis).
Btw, the SC punted on the PA and NC delayed vote counting issues, which was a pleasant surprise for me. (ACB declined to issue a ruling since she hadn't had time to read it and Kavanaugh declined to grant the request for speeding up the trial).
They may block it in the future but they're refusing to rule before election day.
For the second time in one day on Wednesday, the Supreme Court rejected a Republican attempt to block a state’s extension for the receipt and counting of mail-in votes beyond Election Day. This time, the case involved President Donald Trump’s campaign in North Carolina.
The ruling fell hours after the high court declined to grant an expedited hearing to Pennsylvania Republicans challenging a three-day window to process mail-in ballots that trickle in after Nov. 3.
In both cases, newly minted Justice Amy Coney Barrett declined to participate, while fellow Donald Trump appointee Brett Kavanaugh said nothing. Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch would have granted a Supreme Court audience in both cases, only to be outvoted by the court’s liberal wing and chief justice.
https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/supreme-court-rejects-trump-campaigns-bid-to-block-mail-in-voting-extension-in-n-c/
The interpretation I read from Nate Silver and others is that it's a sign that the SC is willing to hand Trump the election if it is tied or extremely close (ie Bush v Gore) but not to defy norms and hand it to him if he isn't already up.
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On October 29 2020 11:26 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 10:25 WombaT wrote:On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote: I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft. 4 years ago I made a Facebook post in the early hours of the morning that prior polling data and early exit data indicated Trump was done and I was away to bed to return tomorrow to mock the MAGA hat wearers. The next day was not especially enjoyable, especially with the hangover. Does the sitting President have to attend an inauguration or do they just concede and thats them done? After the next president is sworn in, the previous one loses all powers and titles of the office. The big one is commander in chief of the armed forces. (I believe the swearing in is almost entirely ceremonial too : if Biden for some reason can't swear in, then it falls to Pelosi, I think, or whoever the next Speaker is. Trump loses power no matter what Jan 21st if he loses.) IE: Trump not conceding means nothing. He still loses power if enough states certify that he didn't win their election. Biden can literally just have the military or secret service drag him out of the white house if he's overstaying his welcome (it's unlikely to come to this). The only way Trump can maintain power if he loses is a literal military coup, and he's just not popular enough with the military to do that. While the enlisted like him, the officer corps has generally always despised him, and I've heard no signs of that improving in the slightest, especially since he's vocally attacked any generals he hired away (ie Mattis). Btw, the SC punted on the PA and NC delayed vote counting issues, which was a pleasant surprise for me. (ACB declined to issue a ruling since she hadn't had time to read it and Kavanaugh declined to grant the request for speeding up the trial). They may block it in the future but they're refusing to rule before election day. Show nested quote + For the second time in one day on Wednesday, the Supreme Court rejected a Republican attempt to block a state’s extension for the receipt and counting of mail-in votes beyond Election Day. This time, the case involved President Donald Trump’s campaign in North Carolina.
The ruling fell hours after the high court declined to grant an expedited hearing to Pennsylvania Republicans challenging a three-day window to process mail-in ballots that trickle in after Nov. 3.
In both cases, newly minted Justice Amy Coney Barrett declined to participate, while fellow Donald Trump appointee Brett Kavanaugh said nothing. Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch would have granted a Supreme Court audience in both cases, only to be outvoted by the court’s liberal wing and chief justice.
https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/supreme-court-rejects-trump-campaigns-bid-to-block-mail-in-voting-extension-in-n-c/The interpretation I read from Nate Silver and others is that it's a sign that the SC is willing to hand Trump the election if it is tied or extremely close (ie Bush v Gore) but not to defy norms and hand it to him if he isn't already up. If it comes down to PA mail-in ballots determining the election and they give it to Trump, that'll be the second time in my life something like this happened when it shouldn't have
On the topic of PA mail-in ballots, this is the current total for returned ballots:
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
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What's weird for me to think about is if Trump does lose and leaves. he won't have been "the worst president ever" or even in our lifetime. Bush will have definitely been worse imo and rehabilitated by Democrats.
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Trump didn’t appoint activist justices. Don’t worry about the Supreme Court somehow voting to make Trump “win the election.” That’s resistance porn, and masturbating to it isn’t healthy. They’ll generally not favor sudden changes to election law made by judges (should be a duhhhh).
Recall that Bush vs Gore revolved around a Democrat-leaning state Supreme Court that wanted only recounts in areas that were likely to pick up additional votes for Gore. It never was an example of handing the election to one candidate or another; it was to stop a bad process once the votes were in.
I’d appreciate a little less doomsday Trump plus SC tomfoolery in this place.
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So close now,its exciting.
Prediction time:
Biden will win with a large margin close to an actual landslide. 55-45 of the popular vote 320+ in the electoral college. (and to name a random number:328 though i am not sure that is actually possible).
Trump will eventually accept defeat though probably not on tuesday already. Biggest worry for me is vote by mail,and then i am leaning towards fraud by the republicans and not by the democrats. Though the system seems to be pretty tight and trustworthy in general so maybe it wont be so bad. History will eventually judge Trump as one of the worst presidents ever,the media will make sure of that. (i think he was not great but he did have succes in some areas) The democrats will end up with the house and the senate as well though the question is if they should be happy with that. Coming years they will have to deal with the fall-out and long term (economic) effects of the epidemic for which there wont be an easy solution. (maybe i am a bit to pessimistic here,the west is very resilient) The transition of the most important economic area in the world from the west to the east has just started and the balance of geopolitical power will change as a result of that. The epidemic could be seen as the event that marks the start of this transition,which most likely will take the whole decade. (maybe i am a bit to "pessimistic" here,the west is very resilient and china does have his own issues as well)
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United States40785 Posts
On October 29 2020 11:53 Danglars wrote: Trump didn’t appoint activist justices. Don’t worry about the Supreme Court somehow voting to make Trump “win the election.” That’s resistance porn, and masturbating to it isn’t healthy. They’ll generally not favor sudden changes to election law made by judges (should be a duhhhh).
Recall that Bush vs Gore revolved around a Democrat-leaning state Supreme Court that wanted only recounts in areas that were likely to pick up additional votes for Gore. It never was an example of handing the election to one candidate or another; it was to stop a bad process once the votes were in.
I’d appreciate a little less doomsday Trump plus SC tomfoolery in this place. This would be a lot more convincing if Kavanaugh hadn’t previously stated that he opposed counting all of the ballots if doing so would change the result (which begs the question how there could even be a result if all the ballots hadn’t been counted).
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So trump is pulling his spending from florida as of yesterday, anyone here that understands the big brain plays of trump want to explain this 4d chess move. I am having a real hard time warping my head around pulling your money out of your single most important state for the final week. one that on paper he is losing in.
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On October 29 2020 12:34 Shingi11 wrote: So trump is pulling his spending from florida as of yesterday, anyone here that understands the big brain plays of trump want to explain this 4d chess move. I am having a real hard time warping my head around pulling your money out of your single most important state for the final week. To be fair, he forced the RNC to foot the bill. Not exactly a good sign for him, granted, but he's not abandoning the state completely
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On October 29 2020 11:48 GreenHorizons wrote: What's weird for me to think about is if Trump does lose and leaves. he won't have been "the worst president ever" or even in our lifetime. Bush will have definitely been worse imo and rehabilitated by Democrats. I think this perspective doesn’t appreciate the cultural damage that may take generations to heal. Think about how people on this forum talked about trump in early 2014/2015. Seeing them describe him as remotely ok shows a bizarre level of cultural damage.
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On October 29 2020 12:52 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 11:48 GreenHorizons wrote: What's weird for me to think about is if Trump does lose and leaves. he won't have been "the worst president ever" or even in our lifetime. Bush will have definitely been worse imo and rehabilitated by Democrats. I think this perspective doesn’t appreciate the cultural damage that may take generations to heal. Think about how people on this forum talked about trump in early 2014/2015. Seeing them describe him as remotely ok shows a bizarre level of cultural damage.
Its cultural damage thats likely just been accelerated, Trump didn't inspire anyone knew, these people were always looking for their person and he was going to show up eventually...
Trump also isn't likely to be the last of his kind, the next one will likely be actively competent.
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Northern Ireland20818 Posts
On October 29 2020 11:48 GreenHorizons wrote: What's weird for me to think about is if Trump does lose and leaves. he won't have been "the worst president ever" or even in our lifetime. Bush will have definitely been worse imo and rehabilitated by Democrats. I’d still consider Trump a worse President, albeit Bush did a lot more harm in his time.
Judging on the ostensible expectations of the job anyway, Trump is woefully deficient in so many different areas it’s hard to even keep track.
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On October 29 2020 12:36 plasmidghost wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 12:34 Shingi11 wrote: So trump is pulling his spending from florida as of yesterday, anyone here that understands the big brain plays of trump want to explain this 4d chess move. I am having a real hard time warping my head around pulling your money out of your single most important state for the final week. To be fair, he forced the RNC to foot the bill. Not exactly a good sign for him, granted, but he's not abandoning the state completely
II guess but the RNC is already broke and they are not going to be able to match what biden is pumping into the state. ITs such a critical state for him.
On October 29 2020 12:52 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 11:48 GreenHorizons wrote: What's weird for me to think about is if Trump does lose and leaves. he won't have been "the worst president ever" or even in our lifetime. Bush will have definitely been worse imo and rehabilitated by Democrats. I think this perspective doesn’t appreciate the cultural damage that may take generations to heal. Think about how people on this forum talked about trump in early 2014/2015. Seeing them describe him as remotely ok shows a bizarre level of cultural damage.
For me i think trump is going to be so much worse then bush for just how much he has divided the country( and republicans for enabling him). Look at the country today, lots of republicans want to do physical harm top dems. They see them as the literal enemy who wants to end them. No we did not like each other after bush but we where not after each others blood. Maybe we where always headed here since republicans and democrats have grown so far apart in the ideals but he defiantly accelerated it x1000
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On October 29 2020 13:16 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 12:36 plasmidghost wrote:On October 29 2020 12:34 Shingi11 wrote: So trump is pulling his spending from florida as of yesterday, anyone here that understands the big brain plays of trump want to explain this 4d chess move. I am having a real hard time warping my head around pulling your money out of your single most important state for the final week. To be fair, he forced the RNC to foot the bill. Not exactly a good sign for him, granted, but he's not abandoning the state completely II guess but the RNC is already broke and they are not going to be able to match what biden is pumping into the state. ITs such a critical state for him. Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 12:52 Mohdoo wrote:On October 29 2020 11:48 GreenHorizons wrote: What's weird for me to think about is if Trump does lose and leaves. he won't have been "the worst president ever" or even in our lifetime. Bush will have definitely been worse imo and rehabilitated by Democrats. I think this perspective doesn’t appreciate the cultural damage that may take generations to heal. Think about how people on this forum talked about trump in early 2014/2015. Seeing them describe him as remotely ok shows a bizarre level of cultural damage. For me i think trump is going to be so much worse then bush for just how much he has divided the country( and republicans for enabling him). Look at the country today, lots of republicans want to do physical harm top dems. They see them as the literal enemy who wants to end them. No we did not like each other after bush but we where not after each others blood. Maybe we where always headed here since republicans and democrats have grown so far apart in the ideals but he defiantly accelerated it x1000 Absolutely. If Trump doesn't win Florida, I have no idea how he can win the election
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On October 29 2020 13:16 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 12:36 plasmidghost wrote:On October 29 2020 12:34 Shingi11 wrote: So trump is pulling his spending from florida as of yesterday, anyone here that understands the big brain plays of trump want to explain this 4d chess move. I am having a real hard time warping my head around pulling your money out of your single most important state for the final week. To be fair, he forced the RNC to foot the bill. Not exactly a good sign for him, granted, but he's not abandoning the state completely II guess but the RNC is already broke and they are not going to be able to match what biden is pumping into the state. ITs such a critical state for him. Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 12:52 Mohdoo wrote:On October 29 2020 11:48 GreenHorizons wrote: What's weird for me to think about is if Trump does lose and leaves. he won't have been "the worst president ever" or even in our lifetime. Bush will have definitely been worse imo and rehabilitated by Democrats. I think this perspective doesn’t appreciate the cultural damage that may take generations to heal. Think about how people on this forum talked about trump in early 2014/2015. Seeing them describe him as remotely ok shows a bizarre level of cultural damage. For me i think trump is going to be so much worse then bush for just how much he has divided the country( and republicans for enabling him). Look at the country today, lots of republicans want to do physical harm top dems. They see them as the literal enemy who wants to end them. No we did not like each other after bush but we where not after each others blood. Maybe we where always headed here since republicans and democrats have grown so far apart in the ideals but he defiantly accelerated it x1000 They see them as the literal enemy who wants to end them.
How exactly is this different than how Democrats have been portraying Republicans and Trump for years now? Seriously, Nancy Pelosi is up there on capitol hill calling Trump/Republicans "domestic enemies of the state" (as her party continues to filibuster votes on Coronavirus aid packages in the Senate), and the repeal of the individual mandate was gonna kill millions, and net neutrality was gonna kill millions, and Trump's pandemic response already killed hundreds of thousands ... Perhaps your quote should readLook at the country today, lots of republicans want to do physical harm top dems. They see them as the literal enemy who wants to end them. While democrats see republicans as the literal enemy who wants to end them. democrats see republicans as the people that are actually killing them and betraying the country.
Let's get a little truth in advertising if the real point-behind-the-point is Republicans are actually doing all this stuff, but for Democrats, well they're doing it too, but with more aplomb and "they have better reasons" for dividing the country "because it's more real!!!"
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On October 29 2020 14:05 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 13:16 Shingi11 wrote:On October 29 2020 12:36 plasmidghost wrote:On October 29 2020 12:34 Shingi11 wrote: So trump is pulling his spending from florida as of yesterday, anyone here that understands the big brain plays of trump want to explain this 4d chess move. I am having a real hard time warping my head around pulling your money out of your single most important state for the final week. To be fair, he forced the RNC to foot the bill. Not exactly a good sign for him, granted, but he's not abandoning the state completely II guess but the RNC is already broke and they are not going to be able to match what biden is pumping into the state. ITs such a critical state for him. On October 29 2020 12:52 Mohdoo wrote:On October 29 2020 11:48 GreenHorizons wrote: What's weird for me to think about is if Trump does lose and leaves. he won't have been "the worst president ever" or even in our lifetime. Bush will have definitely been worse imo and rehabilitated by Democrats. I think this perspective doesn’t appreciate the cultural damage that may take generations to heal. Think about how people on this forum talked about trump in early 2014/2015. Seeing them describe him as remotely ok shows a bizarre level of cultural damage. For me i think trump is going to be so much worse then bush for just how much he has divided the country( and republicans for enabling him). Look at the country today, lots of republicans want to do physical harm top dems. They see them as the literal enemy who wants to end them. No we did not like each other after bush but we where not after each others blood. Maybe we where always headed here since republicans and democrats have grown so far apart in the ideals but he defiantly accelerated it x1000 They see them as the literal enemy who wants to end them. How exactly is this different than how Democrats have been portraying Republicans and Trump for years now? Seriously, Nancy Pelosi is up there on capitol hill calling Trump/Republicans "domestic enemies of the state" (as her party continues to filibuster votes on Coronavirus aid packages in the Senate), and the repeal of the individual mandate was gonna kill millions, and net neutrality was gonna kill millions, and Trump's pandemic response already killed hundreds of thousands ... Perhaps your quote should read Show nested quote +Look at the country today, lots of republicans want to do physical harm top dems. They see them as the literal enemy who wants to end them. While democrats see republicans as the literal enemy who wants to end them. democrats see republicans as the people that are actually killing them and betraying the country. Let's get a little truth in advertising if the real point-behind-the-point is Republicans are actually doing all this stuff, but for Democrats, well they're doing it too, but with more aplomb and "they have better reasons" for dividing the country "because it's more real!!!"
You sir are out of the loop, that is on mcturtle, got to get caught up on the news danglers.
And we are just going to have to agree to disagree here. Putting Pelosi on anywhere near the level of trump is mindblowing to me. Maybe when pelosi calls in the military on americans citizians for a photo op we can talk about who is dividing the country.
edit And last time i check Pelosi was not an icon and standard bearer for radical groups. Empowering them to do harm to the other side but hay just as bad as trump.
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