EPT![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/pachi/fe/plrtp.gif)
Shinhan Proleague 2008/2009 Playoff Coverage by Riptide and Heyoka
Is it just us, or are the playoffs giving us some really great games this year? CJ Entus vs Samsung KHAN, an encounter that is worthy of a Grand Final, here being played out in a humble Quarterfinals setting. Don't be fooled though, the odds are still as high as they get!
It's been a long year of Proleague for the teams, made even longer, perhaps by the new 1v1 bo5 format introduced this time around. Through five rounds, these two outfits have fought long and hard to be here, last week's playoff wins being the icing on the cake. They need a win here, however, to make sure the cake isn't a lie. Once again we're faced with a weekend of the toughest competition in Starcraft, and while players and teams are no doubt under a lot of pressure, this environment is every Starcraft fan's dream, for it is in situations like these that the game's greatest plays are made.
For months we have watched Proleague throughout the week, and got excited every time someone managed an upset or two. This weekend then, is going to thrill, because from the format, to the teams and matchups, the 25th and 26th of July are practically made for upsets. As we saw last weekend, we should never judge a team by it's round robin record. Despite streaking through R5, and showing far more depth than KHAN, STX gave up their spot to a far less impressive looking outfit led by a marauding Jangbi. CJ too, though expected to perform better than Samsung, went 1-0 against Hite and though losing the second game, relied on EffOrt to pull them through, something which he, showing the reliability of a far senior player, did with ease.
So, last weekend was upsetting for STX and Hite fans, and just full of upsets for everyone else. It was not how we expected the playoffs to begin, and yet, Starcraft being the game that it is, that's just how things played out. Thus, as we begin to look at this week's Quarterfinal encounter, we'd like you to keep in mind that statistics, odds, and analysis aside, it's how each player performs on the day that really matters. Sceptical? Talk to Movie or Justin, both of whom pulled through when their team needed them, though the former quickly upset that balance by failing badly when called upon again.
As we've already mentioned, it's been a long year of Broodwar, and this really adds to the urgency of this encounter. Both teams have a lot to lose, and both teams desperately, desperately want this win. Desperation aside though, let's have a peek at their chances first. Heyoka was in his lab most of the week, twiddling his thumbs and watching Heritage. A few days, and many cups of coffee later, he emerged with these statistics.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/pachi/fe/cj_vs_kahn.png)
Thanks to Xeo and Pachi for the spectacular visual!
OK nerds, settle down. Yes, we are going to tell you how we calculated these odds. No, really. Here's Heyoka himself, explaining his super secret algorithm.
I calculated percentages that approximate about how likely each player is to win his game this weekend. To get there, I started by using the same method I described in this article. From there, I then tweaked the numbers to reflect how a player should currently be, by weighing some percentages towards recent performance or giving an adjustment for map. Not as scientific as possible, but they all are reasonable estimations with the exception of the Movie-Juni game. Juni is 3-0 against protosses in televised games lifetime so estimating his true skill against Movie is difficult.
All in all, Day 1 looks pretty good for CJ, with them going 4-0 on paper. January's choice of lineup here is curious, but as we all know, Great is certainly the wildcard here. While Skyhigh has shown us repeatedly, both in Winner's League, and in the playoff against Hite, that despite his youth, he is certainly dependable with attitude to boot under pressure, Great basically carried KHAN through on Day 1 last weekend, bagging two wins including an Ace match vs a much hyped Calm. Come this weekend's opener, Samsung will be relying on him to get a win, and thereby enable Jangbi and Stork to steam roll Movie and Much. One would mention FireBatHero, but after his disastrous show last weekend, you just can't see him doing anything vs a player of EffOrt's calibre.
Day 2, on the other hand, looks better for KHAN. Stork vs Skyhigh looks pretty much decided on paper, with the two playing their best and worst matchup respectively. Of course, as we just mentioned, Skyhigh is fast becoming an under pressure player, and this ability will no doubt come in handy as he faces the far more experienced Protoss. While Kwanro will no doubt make mincemeat of Miracle, the third match is by far the most interesting. EffOrt, who lost against Yarnc last week, and then won when it mattered, vs Great, who destroyed Calm. The statistics tell us that EffOrt is going to bag this, but statistics are a really bad way of analysing a matchup as complex as ZvZ. This is gonna be the match of the day for sure. Next we have Jangbi vs Much and Iris vs FireBatHero, the latter being the one game which FBH actually has a chance at. Of course, if he plays anything like he did vs Hwasin, Iris will have walk away with an easy win. Game six is a toss up, because as we all know, Movie can deviate between Blockbuster like performance and B-Movie badness in the space of 24 hours.
Now, the Aces. Team bo7s are so interesting mainly because of the ace match factor, and this has only been heightened by the possibility of these games going to super ace, something which happened in both encounters last weekend. CJ's obvious choices are, of course, EffOrt and Skyhigh, with Samsung having Stork, Jangbi and Great to choose from. The hard part, as we all know, is guessing who the other team is sending and then countering it, something which Coach Cho did well in sending Movie out to meet Leta. Versus Hite, it was a lot easier, since Leta was the obvious choice for Ace on the first day. January, however, is an experienced player, and is quite likely to play mind games of her own when it comes to choosing an Ace. All in all, the Ace matches in this series are going to be pretty exciting, to say the least.
Having said all that, and as cool as statistics are, it's impossible to analyse an encounter between two aged teams without delving into their structures, and indeed, their histories. KHAN and CJ both have well known coaches, and two guest writers have kindly agreed to tell us more about them. So without further ado, here are InToTheWow and Ghostclaw to tell us more about these two Kingmakers.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/riptide/proleague200809/pl_qf_kingmakers.jpg)
Kim Ga Eul, Leading KHAN
by Ghostclaw
At 30, January is one of the few women heavily involved in Starcraft today. Not only is she one of the only female coaches, but she was one of the first (and most successful) female players.
January first started playing back in 1998 at Hanyang University, and decided to become a professional gamer in 1999. After playing for Samsung Khan until 2002, she returned to school; when Samsung Electronics (the company that owns the team Samsung Khan) offered her a job as the manager/head coach, she gladly accepted. Since then, January has become the public face of Samsung Khan, often seen trying to hide her emotions on the bench, albeit sometimes unsuccessfully.
Through January's leadership, Samsung Khan has won two different silver medals (in 2007 and 2005), and three gold medals (in 2005, 2007, and 2008). Under her leadership, Samsung Khan and grown and raised many different star progamers, from Stork and Jangbi to up and coming Miracle and Great.
As Samsung Khan heads off into the playoffs, January is a much more important influence than a casual observer would guess. Many of the other managers for other teams have no idea what it's like to be a player, grinding through the schedule, and feeling tense to make every game their best. January knows exactly what it's like to practice many days for an important match, and that's one of the reasons why she is such an invaluable resource to the players before playoffs. This was best seen through January's pick of Jangbi in the super ace match of Samsung Khan vs STX; a gutsy pick at best, but January made the right call, and Samsung Khan moved on to face CJ Etnus.
Looking forward, January's coaching across the whole team is going to be even more important. With the bo7 format, January has had to reach deep into their available lineup, pulling out the best of their B team alongside of their A team to face CJ.
From the Postmatch Interview: On July 20 2009 01:46 MrHoon wrote:
With January's experience as both a player and a coach, Samsung Khan should be able to pull it together and play as a team greater than the sum of their parts. Players like YoOn, Miracle, oDin, and Juni will need to step up to face CJ's star lineup which features big names like Skyhigh, Kwanro, Iris, and EffOrt. With both teams no doubt practising meticulously, January is going to need to delve deep into her experience and pull out builds that'll work against the plays CJ has planned. Sniping big names is something she has done before, and posterity tells us that she certainly can do it again, and this, if anything, is just going to make the weekend more interesting.
by Ghostclaw
At 30, January is one of the few women heavily involved in Starcraft today. Not only is she one of the only female coaches, but she was one of the first (and most successful) female players.
January first started playing back in 1998 at Hanyang University, and decided to become a professional gamer in 1999. After playing for Samsung Khan until 2002, she returned to school; when Samsung Electronics (the company that owns the team Samsung Khan) offered her a job as the manager/head coach, she gladly accepted. Since then, January has become the public face of Samsung Khan, often seen trying to hide her emotions on the bench, albeit sometimes unsuccessfully.
Through January's leadership, Samsung Khan has won two different silver medals (in 2007 and 2005), and three gold medals (in 2005, 2007, and 2008). Under her leadership, Samsung Khan and grown and raised many different star progamers, from Stork and Jangbi to up and coming Miracle and Great.
As Samsung Khan heads off into the playoffs, January is a much more important influence than a casual observer would guess. Many of the other managers for other teams have no idea what it's like to be a player, grinding through the schedule, and feeling tense to make every game their best. January knows exactly what it's like to practice many days for an important match, and that's one of the reasons why she is such an invaluable resource to the players before playoffs. This was best seen through January's pick of Jangbi in the super ace match of Samsung Khan vs STX; a gutsy pick at best, but January made the right call, and Samsung Khan moved on to face CJ Etnus.
Looking forward, January's coaching across the whole team is going to be even more important. With the bo7 format, January has had to reach deep into their available lineup, pulling out the best of their B team alongside of their A team to face CJ.
From the Postmatch Interview: On July 20 2009 01:46 MrHoon wrote:
- Your team was destroyed at Round 2
▲ During sets 1, 2 and 3 I was incredibly furious. During Set 1, Juni should've done the OBVIOUS and reacted against the build like everyone should've done, yet he chose the absolute worst strategy. During set 2, FBH was ahead so so much yet he decided to ruin everything. Set 2 made me angry because it was a very important set for us, but FBH's early build was scouted immediately and did nothing about it. And set 3, yoOn didn't go as we originally planned and decided to do his own bad build.
- But you still had your poker face on
▲ I couldn't be screaming during a playoff game so I decided to keep my cool to calm my team down. Now that we finished our game, these boys need some discipline back in the dorms.
▲ During sets 1, 2 and 3 I was incredibly furious. During Set 1, Juni should've done the OBVIOUS and reacted against the build like everyone should've done, yet he chose the absolute worst strategy. During set 2, FBH was ahead so so much yet he decided to ruin everything. Set 2 made me angry because it was a very important set for us, but FBH's early build was scouted immediately and did nothing about it. And set 3, yoOn didn't go as we originally planned and decided to do his own bad build.
- But you still had your poker face on
▲ I couldn't be screaming during a playoff game so I decided to keep my cool to calm my team down. Now that we finished our game, these boys need some discipline back in the dorms.
With January's experience as both a player and a coach, Samsung Khan should be able to pull it together and play as a team greater than the sum of their parts. Players like YoOn, Miracle, oDin, and Juni will need to step up to face CJ's star lineup which features big names like Skyhigh, Kwanro, Iris, and EffOrt. With both teams no doubt practising meticulously, January is going to need to delve deep into her experience and pull out builds that'll work against the plays CJ has planned. Sniping big names is something she has done before, and posterity tells us that she certainly can do it again, and this, if anything, is just going to make the weekend more interesting.
Cho Gyu Nam, The Face of CJ
by InToTheWow
The playoffs are a steep and dangerous road to walk. As we get closer to the finals, it's less about the numbers and the games played and more about the experience, the motivation and the perseverance teams have to surpass each other, STX and Hite learned that the hard way.
For a team that has been already through this thorough road, experience is just another name for hard work. It was only a year ago than a team without rising stars such as EffOrt, sKyHigh and Movie defeated OGN Sparkyz in a very close match with a great ace match between SaviOr and YellOw[ArnC]. They went on to repeat the feat against MBC Game Heroes in yet another 4-3 match with another unusual and tense final match. It all came to a sudden end when CJ had to face Lecaf OZ, which still had Anytime and a strong 2v2 team that proved to be to much for the men in black and white. It was a year ago that a struggling team learned the bitter way what is needed to get to the top.
Perseverance is more than a word for a man who offered everything he had to give to his team. Someone who treated his team as an sponsored team, even when they didn't have a sponsor. Someone who can put the team before his own gain, is not somebody you find every day, specially where's money in the middle. There would be no CJ Entus if it weren't for Cho Gyu Nam, or at least, no CJ family.
Long gone are the days when CJ was full of OSL and MSL winners in their squad. Some of them left when CJ was having sponsoring problems, some others just fell of the radar. Even with this difficulties at hand, the team managed to stay a worthy opponent in team leagues. The first reason why it worked out that way is because, even though it's players stopped filling CJ's cabinet with trophies, most of them still made it far in the tournaments and were very capable of pulling upsets. Of course upsets don't mean much in a team match if the team under performs in the rest of the games; and that brings us to the second reason: coaching.
It's no secret coach Cho has what many would call "weird" choices when it comes to line-ups and, specially, ace matches. I was many of the ones who frowned at Cho's decision of sending SaviOr vs YarnC in the last playoffs. I was also in disbelief when DarkElf got sent in an ACE match against Sea in such an important match. But after the games were done, the opposing team, changed their smile for a sad look, and CJ kept their poker face on.
Now I'm a believer. I couldn't help but grin when Kwanro aced in multiple games this round. Now with the Pikachu Zerg in the ro8 in the MSL, it's not so crazy to think about it, but before he got this far and with EffOrt sitting in the bench, I'm sure many felt like I did one year ago. Having to cover the team's weakness in skill with smart choices, Cho developed an unpredictable style that adds a new layer of mystic to CJ repertoire.
Eight years ago the motivation was born. It has come a long way, with changes yes, but the team spirit remains the same. Today, it's facing an old rival: Samsung KHAN. Certainly not a push over as they showed last week, but Cho knows the path they are walking, and if he knows how to play his cards right, he will be one step closed to the summit.
Can CJ pull new upsets to the point of becoming a favourite and becoming worthy of the name Greatest One once more?
by InToTheWow
The playoffs are a steep and dangerous road to walk. As we get closer to the finals, it's less about the numbers and the games played and more about the experience, the motivation and the perseverance teams have to surpass each other, STX and Hite learned that the hard way.
For a team that has been already through this thorough road, experience is just another name for hard work. It was only a year ago than a team without rising stars such as EffOrt, sKyHigh and Movie defeated OGN Sparkyz in a very close match with a great ace match between SaviOr and YellOw[ArnC]. They went on to repeat the feat against MBC Game Heroes in yet another 4-3 match with another unusual and tense final match. It all came to a sudden end when CJ had to face Lecaf OZ, which still had Anytime and a strong 2v2 team that proved to be to much for the men in black and white. It was a year ago that a struggling team learned the bitter way what is needed to get to the top.
Perseverance is more than a word for a man who offered everything he had to give to his team. Someone who treated his team as an sponsored team, even when they didn't have a sponsor. Someone who can put the team before his own gain, is not somebody you find every day, specially where's money in the middle. There would be no CJ Entus if it weren't for Cho Gyu Nam, or at least, no CJ family.
Long gone are the days when CJ was full of OSL and MSL winners in their squad. Some of them left when CJ was having sponsoring problems, some others just fell of the radar. Even with this difficulties at hand, the team managed to stay a worthy opponent in team leagues. The first reason why it worked out that way is because, even though it's players stopped filling CJ's cabinet with trophies, most of them still made it far in the tournaments and were very capable of pulling upsets. Of course upsets don't mean much in a team match if the team under performs in the rest of the games; and that brings us to the second reason: coaching.
It's no secret coach Cho has what many would call "weird" choices when it comes to line-ups and, specially, ace matches. I was many of the ones who frowned at Cho's decision of sending SaviOr vs YarnC in the last playoffs. I was also in disbelief when DarkElf got sent in an ACE match against Sea in such an important match. But after the games were done, the opposing team, changed their smile for a sad look, and CJ kept their poker face on.
Now I'm a believer. I couldn't help but grin when Kwanro aced in multiple games this round. Now with the Pikachu Zerg in the ro8 in the MSL, it's not so crazy to think about it, but before he got this far and with EffOrt sitting in the bench, I'm sure many felt like I did one year ago. Having to cover the team's weakness in skill with smart choices, Cho developed an unpredictable style that adds a new layer of mystic to CJ repertoire.
Eight years ago the motivation was born. It has come a long way, with changes yes, but the team spirit remains the same. Today, it's facing an old rival: Samsung KHAN. Certainly not a push over as they showed last week, but Cho knows the path they are walking, and if he knows how to play his cards right, he will be one step closed to the summit.
Can CJ pull new upsets to the point of becoming a favourite and becoming worthy of the name Greatest One once more?
In looking at this encounter, one must also remember that there is clearly no love loss between these two outfits. From FireBatHero's unceremonious badmannering of The Maestro, to Much's return Pylon heart, which was no doubt delivered with a lot of affection, it is no secret that these two teams are rivals. With Skyhigh onboard CJ for this encounter, the meteorological department reports that there is a strong likelihood of bad manner this weekend, with chance scatterings of offensive CCs.
One thing's for sure though - whether you're a KHAN fanatic or a CJ supporter, or, like some of us, just a fan of good games and heart thumping, nerve wracking Broodwar, this weekend is going to be one that you definitely dont want to miss. Stork, Jangbi, FireBatHero, EffOrt, Kwanro, Skyhigh - these teams, though perhaps not so evenly matched in terms of pure statistics, certainly have the names to pull off upsets, and reverse scores.
There is talk of CJ going 4-0 on day one, and although fans are going to want to believe this, the truth is that January's boys are more than capable of pulling a fast one. Let's not forget that under her leadership, she has led Samsung to not one, but two titles, and that her team is known for performing under pressure. The orchestrator of Frozean's famous 2007 Jaedong snipe, this is one coach who knows how to bag a win when needs one, and it is this ability of hers that will be put to the test as she faces a team that is stronger on paper. Of course, having beaten a theoretically more difficult outfit last weekend, there's no doubt that she's raring to have a crack at CJ as well.
Likewise, CJ have been waiting for this weekend for a long time as well, and they've no doubt got some crazy builds and weird strategies up their sleeves. Offensive CCing aside, it would truly be a treat to see Kwanro bust out some mass ling again, or see Much come back to form with Rock-style carriers. Call us fickle, but we know that all of you are hoping for some drama, because after all, what is a playoff without something to rage about afterwards?
As of this writing, this much awaited encounter is nearly upon us, and as you spend these next few hours sleeping, getting pounded on ICCUP, or stocking up on supplies, keep in mind that over these next two days you are not only going to witness two of this game's biggest names fight tooth and nail, but that you are going to see the players of tomorrow step up and deliver blow after merciless blow until only one is left standing.
So, as you settle back with a bottle of soda, remember that we are indeed privileged to have ringside seats to this fight, and as these guys get down and dirty, keep in mind that to them, Starcraft is more than a game. For some, on this weekend hinges their life, their career, and the culmination of their teenage dreams. This is Proleague, the biggest gaming event on the planet, and they will wake up tomorrow, and carry this knowledge with them onto the benches, and then into the booths where they will clear their heads, and fight, or fail, sometimes in the blink of an eye. As these games begin, let us remember that both teams have fought hard, and that by all accounts, both teams deserve to win. Tomorrow's victory, however, will not be delivered to those that deserve it. No, tomorrow's victory will be taken by those who desire it the most. Who that is, of course, is something that remains to be seen.
Good luck CJ. Good luck KHAN. You're both gonna need it.
Thanks to Xeo and Pachi for the awesome graphics, Ghostclaw and InToTheWow for the guest columns, and of course Fomos for the pics, as usual! This is my 500th post here as well so I thought I'd just take the opportunity to thank everyone who has commented on a news post of mine. I enjoy bringing you guys this coverage, and I do read everything you say, even though I may not reply to all of it. I think I speak for all the writers when I say that this community, with its advanced knowledge, intense nerd rage and biting sarcasm is the reason we are driven to work so hard on every article. Thank you for keeping us on our toes, and here's to many, many more!
