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[OSL] Dark Age of Protoss

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[OSL] Dark Age of Protoss

Text byJWD
July 22nd, 2009 01:10 GMT
[image loading]

SilverskY and Daigomi are sexy


The Bacchus OSL 2009's topsy-turvy Ro16 now a distant memory (buried below intense SHL, MSL, and PL action), its Ro8 seems almost overdue. Suffer the suspense no longer: the Bacchus OSL 2009's quarterfinal round kicks off this Thursday (July 24) at 18:30 KST, but TL's coverage of it begins now!




The Bracket

Feast your eyes on the structure of the Bacchus OSL 2009's elimination stages:

[image loading]

This is a good opportunity to explain precisely how the OSL Ro8's bracket is determined (a topic I'll admit to being fuzzy on prior to writing this article). Eight players advance from the Ro16: one first-place finisher from each group (A, B, C, and D) and one second-place finisher from each group. The Ro8 bracket is then randomly generated subject to the following two constraints:
  1. Each first-place finisher must face a second-place finisher in the Ro8.
  2. Each side of the bracket must contain one player from each group.
This random generation is performed at a live drawing following the Ro16's conclusion. Zeus and Iloveoov conducted the Bacchus OSL 2009's drawing — ironic considering how unfriendly to Hite and T1 this bracket is.





Dark Age of Protoss

The Forces of Aiur stood tall in fall 2008: Stork finally claimed his first OSL title, GOM S2's final and the ClubDay MSL's quarterfinals (and final) were all Protoss versus Protoss, and the 6 Dragons ran amok in Proleague. The ClubDay MSL Finals' opening video, hyping Bisu vs. Jangbi, heralded the "Golden Age of Protoss":

[image loading]

An era past

If the StarCraft season before last was Protoss's Golden Age, this one is its Dark Age. BW's proudest race has fallen far over the first half of 2009, and this OSL's Ro8 is a brutal new low: because none of the Ro16's three Protosses survived his group, the Bacchus OSL 2009 is not only the first "modern OSL" (the first OSL since Daum restored the tournament's original format) without a Protoss quarterfinalist — it's the first without a Protoss semifinalist.

To watch an exclusively Terran and Zerg OSL Ro8 you'd have to take your wayback machine to the 1st ShinHan Bank OSL in spring 2006, when the OSL's elimination stages began with its Ro16 and calling Casy Neo Emperor was not a yet backhanded compliment. Yes, prior to this OSL, Protoss had been a staple of the OnGameNet Starleague's later stages for over three years.

So, what changed? Why have Protoss struggled so mightily in this OSL? Surprisingly, the answer is not floating in its map pool. Unlike the 1st ShinHan Bank OSL's maps, which included balance disasters Rush Hour 3 (8-24 PvT), Sin Pioneer Period (3-9 PvZ), and 815 III (13-22 PvZ), this OSL's maps look fairly balanced in PvX matchups. A Protoss bastion (such as Troy, Katrina, or Medusa) is notably absent, but so is a Protoss graveyard: other than Return of the King's PvT mark (10-16), every OSL map's PvX winrate stands between 40 and 60 percent. Even Holy World, with its wide open naturals, and Outsider, with its gas-happy expansion layout, have proven manageable for Protoss players. Though maps certainly haven't helped the forces of Aiur through this OSL, they cannot be the primary cause of Protoss's absence from this Ro8 — especially because Tosses are also struggling in the MSL.

Rather, the Dark Age of Protoss has a blindingly simple explanation: most of Brood War's top Protoss players have been playing like garbage lately, and they each pulled somewhat tough draws in this OSL. Best faced a Zerg in the Ro36, Kal and Bisu met Zero in his occasional ZvP godmode, Stork fell to Fantasy's sick TvP, and both Jangbi and Free were upset in offlines (while on the verge of painful slumps).

Protoss's poor performance in the Bacchus OSL 2009 is remarkable, but we should be wary of attributing it to anything more significant than a confluence of cold streaks and difficult opponents. 2008's Golden Age has warped our impression of average Protoss success — it was the exception. Aiur's status quo is a unique reliance on just one or two elite players for representation on BW's biggest stages, and thus a unique vulnerability to complete absence from those stages. If not for Bisu, Stork, and Reach, EVER2007, Daum, EVER2005, EVER2004, and SKY 2 would join Bacchus 2009, IOPS, Olympus, and Panasonic as OSLs without a Protoss quarterfinalist. No OnGameNet Starleague Ro8 has been without a Zerg or Terran player.




Hite Fight!

Quick, get in touch with the civic minds at WeMade FOX! If Hite's sponsorship of the SPARKYZ wasn't enough to make every young adolescent in Korea a raging alcoholic, this OSL surely is — with the SPARKYZ claiming half its Ro8 berths, OGN will be giving Hite's logo plenty of airtime in the coming weeks.

[image loading]

Pictured above are the SPARKYZ's four quarterfinalists, reviewing Hite's master plan for pitching booze to 14-year-old girls their secrets to OSL success:
  • For Leta: just keep doing what you do best.
  • For Go.go: do not play Bisu straight up. Remember that BM is the source of your power!
  • For Type-b: don't practice ZvT — Fantasy will destroy you regardless. Instead, capitalize on your Protoss opponents' weak vZ.
  • For Yarnc: do not, under any circumstance, practice with your brother! To assure victory over Flash, choose a build that he must build turrets to survive. To have a shot at victory over Jaedong, pray that his grueling schedule has rendered him near-comatose.




Quarterfinal A Preview

[image loading]

(Z)YellOw[ArnC]                                                       (T)go.go      
vs
Career vT:
56-31 (64%)                                          Career vZ: 10-10 (50%)
Last 10 vT: 8-2                                                        Last 10 vZ: 5-5

While Type-b and Leta can't be overjoyed at drawing a fellow SPARKY in the Ro8, they should at least be relieved to have avoided Yellow[arnc]. In his latest Weekly News Artosis picked Yarnc to win Hite's half of the OSL bracket, and I'm inclined to agree. With no Protoss to stand in his way and his best matchups (ZvT and ZvZ) looking more fearsome than ever, Yarnc is perfectly poised to continue his impressive performance in this OSL.

Yarnc's TvZ combines his brother's flair for strategic plays with impenetrably strong late-game management. Fake Yellow is an all-around master of this matchup, and as such I fully expect him to steamroll poor Go.go — who in this series will be lucky to build a command center at his own mineral-only, nevermind his opponent's natural.

Bottom line: (Z)YellOw[ArnC] 2-0. Go.go's TvZ is simply a cut below Yarnc's ZvT.





Quarterfinal B Preview

[image loading]

(Z)type-b                                                                (T)Leta
vs
Career vT:
9-5 (64%)                                          Career vZ: 29-14 (67%)
Last 10 vT: 5-5                                                        Last 10 vZ: 7-3

Though he is by far the most unaccomplished quarterfinalist and even (judging by Proleague lineup appearances) Hite's weakest Ro8 qualifier, Type-b is nevertheless a tough matchup for his teammate Leta. On paper Hite's ace is a prodigious Zerg slayer: he's ridden his wraith-happy TvZ to an 11-4 record against The Swarm this season, and two of those losses came to JD. However, Leta has a history of floundering in the metagame when facing crafty Zergs — see his proxy 8-rax against BW's most notoriously aggressive Zerg (who, naturally, opened 9-pool and hard countered for an easy win) or his most recent BoX series vs. Luxury, where he was completely outwitted in games 3 and 5.

Type-b, like Kwanro and Lux, has a penchant for aggressive, low-econ strategies. If he can avoid straight-up games and instead test Leta's questionable ability to predict and counter unorthodox play, Type-b may be able to capitalize on Leta's ego-shattering failure in PL playoffs to gain an insurmountable mental advantage here.

Bottom Line: 2-0 (T)Leta, barring any trickery from Type-b.




Quarterfinal C Preview

[image loading]

(T)Canata                                                             (T)fantasy
vs
Career vT:
36-28 (56%)                                          Career vT: 22-16 (58%)
Last 10 vT: 4-6                                                        Last 10 vT: 7-3

StarCraft's bracket gods must have a vendetta with SK Telecom T1. Canata vs. Fantasy makes this the third consecutive OSL with a T1 vs. T1 quarterfinal match, and SKT fans will have to watch it with the bitter taste of Fantasy vs. Bisu's MSL Ro16 series lingering in our mouths (sigh, it's just so tough to root for a team that is consistently successful in Starleagues).

T1's in-house competitive dynamics are now exceedingly complex: Bisu eliminated Fantasy from the MSL, giving him more time to focus on this series than Canata, who after his Day 1 win at the MSL Ro16 said he "gained a lot by watching Fantasy", who must now regret letting Canata look over his shoulder in the T1 practice room. Observing Fantasy's games may have helped Canata cruise past Piano in the MSL, but shouldn't be enough to topple Fantasy himself. Oov's prodigy remains StarCraft's best all-around Terran player, and here he will use his seemingly-innate understanding of the game to assert his position atop T1's Terran hierarchy.

Bottom Line: (T)fantasy, 2-1. Canata's TvT looks sharper than ever, but he is outmatched (and will be out-practiced) here.




Quarterfinal D Preview

[image loading]

(Z)ZerO                                                              (Z)Jaedong
vs
Career vZ:
30-31 (49%)                                          Career vZ: 76-20 (79%)
Last 10 vZ: 3-7                                                        Last 10 vZ: 6-4

I have been eagerly awaiting this matchup ever since Zero's ZvZ impressed me on his Lost Saga MSL semifinal run (2>1 Yarnc in the Ro16, 3>1 Savior in the Ro8). Though Zero's Lost Saga MSL hopes ended with a pitiful 0-3 loss to Luxury and he's currently on a painful string of vZ losses (OversKy, Kwanro, and, on June 22 Jaedong himself), he is still easily capable of challenging the Legend Killer's inhuman ZvZ. More than any other Ro8 qualifier, Zero's potential is tied to his mental condition — and, at eight of his last nine against a host of tough opponents, he is playing with determination, confidence, and flair.

More significantly, though, Jaedong is coming off of an 0-2 defeat in GOM that made his ZvZ look vulnerable for the first time since he fell to July at WCG Korea 2007. Effort simply outplayed JD — even beating him with 9-pool, a build Jaedong said he never loses to in practice. However, Zero is no Effort, and Jaedong's GOM quarters loss is thus an obviously weak basis for doubting his status as the favorite in this series. JD has an uncanny ability to recover quickly from unlikely defeats, and with a Golden Mouse now just eight wins away he is sure to combine that ability with rigorous practice to remain, in Zero's words, "the ultimate boss of ZvZ".

Bottom line: (Z)Jaedong in three, but a surprisingly strong performance from Zero.





One More Thing:

GTR has put together a nifty list of OSL and MSL Finals venues (memorize it to whip your buddies at eSports trivia).

[image loading]

COEX Convention Hall in Seoul, site of the Incruit OSL Finals

As forum-goers and VOD-watchers, it's easy to feel removed from StarCraft as a stadium-packing spectator event. For the average foreign fan, all professional BW matches are framed by YouTube's familiar layout. For Korean SC enthusiasts, however, each match is framed by its particular venue, banners, and fans. These circumstances are often meaningful — for example, Firebathero's victory dip at the 2008 Proleague Grand Final wouldn't have been possible anywhere but the beach, and as "a Pusan man" Fantasy benefited from a friendly crowd at the Batoo OSL Finals.



Get hyped: the Bacchus OSL 2009's conclusion will coincide with not only the later stages of GOM S3 and the Avalon MSL, but the long-awaited 08-09 Proleague playoffs. Sorry this writeup was a bit on the longer side (there's plenty to talk about here), and see you in LR threads!

Peace,
JWD
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✌
appe
Profile Joined April 2009
Sweden149 Posts
July 22 2009 01:22 GMT
#2
Wouldn't suprise me if YarnC reached the final, or even won the whole thing.
JWD
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States12607 Posts
July 22 2009 01:25 GMT
#3
On July 22 2009 10:22 appe wrote:
Wouldn't suprise me if YarnC reached the final, or even won the whole thing.

I totally agree — he's been playing really well lately against super tough opponents. I expect him to make the finals, but JD or Fantasy would be more than a match for him there.

No Protoss remaining makes me think that this OSL is Yarnc's big chance, and I bet he feels the same way.
✌
StorrZerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States13919 Posts
July 22 2009 01:26 GMT
#4
sweet read, can't wait for the first night

Jaedong
Canata
Go.Go
type-b
Hwaseung Oz fan for life. Swing out, always swing out.
TwoStep
Profile Joined January 2009
United States294 Posts
July 22 2009 01:34 GMT
#5
Is it just me or do people predict a BoX series to be closer than it normally is? Surprisingly strong performances are the exception, not the norm. I predict all 2-0s.
Arf
Simple
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
United States801 Posts
July 22 2009 01:42 GMT
#6
yeah, their opponents will be them a run for their money, but im thinking itll only be in game and not for the series
imperfect
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Canada1652 Posts
July 22 2009 01:44 GMT
#7
as much as i love fantasy, i love yarnc so much more

i'll be rooting for ya fake yellooooo
blind bisu free and anytime fanboy.
dekuschrub
Profile Joined May 2008
United States2069 Posts
July 22 2009 01:49 GMT
#8
hahah yarnc is like

shit my brother won msl.. ME WIN OSL SUCK IT LUX

but seriously yarnc has always been rumored to be better than lux. His nickname (muta controller) is really fitting and when he gets goin on you its really hard to stop him.

but I still think/want fantasy to take the whole thing. when i watch him play it seems like he breaks the game with waht he pulls off.
sk`
Profile Joined November 2008
Japan442 Posts
July 22 2009 01:51 GMT
#9
I don't want to spark the fires of debate, but could the P slump have more to do with the none of the maps being P favored as they were when it was the Golden Age?

I think most people do concede that P is the overall weakest race at the highest level. If we accept this and accept the fact that no P is doing well when the maps aren't P tilted, then we can easily understand their absence.
www.pureesports.com
khy
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
United States475 Posts
July 22 2009 01:55 GMT
#10
Jong Myong Hoon, I BELIEVE!

No rematch of the Batoo finals in the finals...too bad.
7mk
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Germany10157 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-22 09:34:25
July 22 2009 01:57 GMT
#11
On July 22 2009 10:51 sk` wrote:
I don't want to spark the fires of debate, but could the P slump have more to do with the none of the maps being P favored as they were when it was the Golden Age?

I think most people do concede that P is the overall weakest race at the highest level. If we accept this and accept the fact that no P is doing well when the maps aren't P tilted, then we can easily understand their absence.


O_o .... ... isn't this exactly what JWD said in the article?


Anyways, great job JWD very good read

Although imho your SKT fanboyism was a little too obvious ... you don't mention once how it's unlucky that all 4 hite players only face their team mates and then the very first sentence of fantasy vs canata is how the bracket gods hate SKT ^^
And don't come with any "well at least 2 of them advance" bs

I don't really care though, good job :p


beep boop
Husky
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3362 Posts
July 22 2009 01:59 GMT
#12
Protoss Fighting!!

I absolutely love this article, the pictures are especially great. Thanks for the insight. Hopefully the good ol' toss will put up a better fight next year.
Commentaries: youtube.com/HuskyStarcraft
Mykill
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada3402 Posts
July 22 2009 01:59 GMT
#13
I have this feeling that Leta is a gonna lose... (probably just tired)
JD is gonna lose to Zero
you heard it here first! MYKILL said it!
[~~The Impossible Leads To Invention~~] CJ Entusman #52 The problem with internet quotations is that they are hard to verify -Abraham Lincoln c.1863
Sigh
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Canada2433 Posts
July 22 2009 02:03 GMT
#14
I can see a Fantasy and Jaedong rematch
NaDa/Flash/Thorzain Fan
JWD
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States12607 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-22 08:14:45
July 22 2009 02:11 GMT
#15
On July 22 2009 10:57 7mk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 22 2009 10:51 sk` wrote:
I don't want to spark the fires of debate, but could the P slump have more to do with the none of the maps being P favored as they were when it was the Golden Age?

I think most people do concede that P is the overall weakest race at the highest level. If we accept this and accept the fact that no P is doing well when the maps aren't P tilted, then we can easily understand their absence.


O_o .... ... isn't this exactly what JWD said in the article?

Not exactly. What I said is that Protoss's recent struggles don't have much to do with map balance, but rather a dropoff in the performances of its top players (the 6 Dragons). What sk` is proposing is that Protoss's recent struggles do have to do with maps — not that they're imbalanced against Protoss, but that they are now simply not imbalanced in favor of Protoss (in 2008 there were many Protoss-favored maps).

sk I think yours is a pretty good theory and it probably explains some of the Protoss slump, but I think the main problem with it is that, if favorable maps were the main cause of the Golden Age of Protoss, we would have seen tons of up-and-coming Protoss players thriving (as well as the best Protosses). Basically, since maps impact all players equally, we would expect all Protosses to have performed well. But this wasn't really the case — instead, we just watched the same few Protoss players do extremely well in Starleagues, while A- and B-class Protosses continued to be mediocre. This makes me think that the Golden Age of Protoss (and thus Protoss's current troubles) is mostly related to the relative skill of its top players.
✌
Ideas
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
United States8097 Posts
July 22 2009 02:12 GMT
#16
I really want to see fantasy/JD taking this OSL. fantasy finally winning the osl after 2 straight 2-3 defeats. Or JD becoming the 3rd player to win the golden mouse and the 1st person to win the OSL back-to-back since boxer :O
Free Palestine
Ideas
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
United States8097 Posts
July 22 2009 02:16 GMT
#17
the biggest problem with the former dragons IMO is that all of them except for Bisu are suddenly horrible at PvZ (especially Kal and Free). Not to mention that Best is doing horrible in PvP lately too.
Free Palestine
hiro protagonist
Profile Joined January 2009
1294 Posts
July 22 2009 02:27 GMT
#18
Hmmm... do you really think Leta is cheating JWD? or was that some clever sarcasm for debate?
If the later, well done at sucking me in.
"I guess if you climb enough off-widths, one of these days, your gonna get your knee stuck and shit your pants. Its just an odds thing really" -Jason Kruk
JWD
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States12607 Posts
July 22 2009 02:56 GMT
#19
On July 22 2009 11:27 hiro protagonist wrote:
Hmmm... do you really think Leta is cheating JWD? or was that some clever sarcasm for debate?
If the later, well done at sucking me in.

Obviously there's no way to prove that his wandering eyes are an intentional attempt to get some useful information from the audience...I was just joking around.

That said, I do think Leta's eyes move around an inordinate amount in some VODs...
✌
ReketSomething
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States6012 Posts
July 22 2009 03:03 GMT
#20
Nice write up =). Yellow ZvTing his way into the finals!...where he gets owned by Jaedong =D
Jaedong :3
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