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On March 17 2009 14:18 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:Alas, more_minerals, for ye shall be missed!  Anyway. I don't see why people are voting BC when he hasn't even made a statement in the thread yet. Why don't we wait for some actual campaigning instead of blind voting?
Qatol's was part of a pre-arranged deal and Fishball I guess is choosing to vote for BC rather than kill him as he normally would.
But yes candidates should be judged on their merits of their proposal.
I won't be here for all of tomororow so I'm not running and whoever has the best plan + accountability gets my vote.
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Haha any plan that relies on previous game plans is destined to fail. We made sure of that.
Elected roles will have to be judged on their own credentials and prove themselves worthy of having any trust.
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On March 17 2009 17:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Anyone want to comment on my Pika Chu analysis?
Seems pretty solid but I think we should wait until after the election to focus on this kind of stuff.
Right now we need to have a solid plan and leadership structure. There are definitely ways to do this and I have some ideas of my own that aren't fully fleshed out yet but I'm hoping we have some candidates with good proposals that allow the town to work together more effectively.
What could be useful is if we use Pika chu, assuming nothing else comes up, as an agreed upon first lynch. We need the mayor (and sheriff too of course) to be held accountable for his actions and a pre-determined lynch is an important part of this.
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On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
As sheriff or mayor, I will help guide the town where I can doing what I do best, Analysis. I can analyze clues, behaviour of players and guide us in a winning direction.
As sheriff, I can jail 4 people in a game once per person, this allows me to save potential targets from mafia in a night, or jail the mafia lowering their KP.
As mayor I can guide us towards killing the right suspect, and with a day 1 auto lynch, kill the person who is the most fishy to the town, but in the end, that will come to a consensus among the town first.
Now for a plan.
We all know the town works better when organized, as such, neither mayor nor sheriff can guide this town to victory without being under suspect (we always flip as mayor or sheriff regardless of any other role).
So heres the plan.
Medics protect veteran players early. When one of them takes a hit, the medic should roleclaim to that person AND that person should claim they took a hit. That person then gets checked. They get the medic checked as well. If BOTH check out, they both come out and serve as figureheads for the town. They coordinate blue abilities but keep information on to the town.
When the person is hit they speak up. The sheriff then locks him up, protecting him from night hits while a dt checks him out. Once verified we repeat process with med, and have two figureheads, as opposed to the regular one.
In the event the person who is hit doesnt speak up, the medic speaks up, we verify them first, then the one hit after.
This is our best chance at getting town leadership quickly.
Hmm okay let's see here. This seems to be pretty solid way of coordinating blues IF the following circumstances happen: medic protects an active player, active player comes out. It has a good result but the problem is that it comes down to luck/medic skill.
I would like to see this expanded more and discussed, as well as possible alternatives. When the medics make a save, great, we can go with this. But otherwise we need some backup ideas.
I won't be back until late tomorrow night so hopefully we can polish this or get something even better. Until then, this is the only actual plan proposed so far and it does seem well thought out so BC has my vote of confidence. We don't need names and history, we need plans and accountability for office. Others & BC, get your own plans and flesh them out better. I will lend my views tomorrow once I have more time.
I vote for BC . For now, I'll see how things are tomorrow.
I don't fully agree with Ace that DTs are terrible. Yes, they no longer give absolute certainty but the certainty is still very high (1 GF, 3 millers is not a very large number). Furthermore, millers cannot be blue, so blue can only be the GF. Yeah mafia probably won't fake DT, but that's even better for us because then we don't have to waste rolechecks or be stingy on trusting blues. It is often well worth the sacrifice of a mafia to screw up the town's machinery for a day or two.
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On March 19 2009 00:27 MrBabyHands wrote:
all of these plans have large holes. behavioral and clue analysis are the only way we're gonna stand a chance. we should protect and verify our analyzers and veteran players now and form a plan later in the game when we have more to go on.
I agree with this. I also am curious why everyone has pretty much ignored mrbabyhands. Ideally him/Ace in power would be quite a strong setup.
I'll lend my vote out here to get this going: I change my vote to mrbabyhands.
We can worry about vigi's when they hit a target.
The strategy talk has been a great success though in highlighting the game's atmosphere. If mafia think they can hide amongst the rampant inactives (lol seriously 30 people haven't voted yet) they are just deluding themselves.
Just to note though that clue analysis on its own is weak until much later. However, it can help assist in pinning people down, so keep it up!
Behavior analysis is how things are going to be done for awhile, and the people who have been posting strategy have been contributing immensely to that effort. Keep that up too!
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Allrighty, my turn now.
First a few things to address:
Listen to Ace people. We nearly botched the elections. This game was supposed to be a smart game (and an active one!), and so far it has not been either. When the town's thinkers get killed early when medics don't protect them, I see this town competing for the 'dumbest town' award. It's hard to beat mafia 1, but hey, keep going on this track and I'm not so sure anymore.
@ redtooth- I did not run for mayor, because I believed I wouldn't be around enough these past 2 days. Indeed I missed all of Wednesday because I was out on a hiking trip. Unfortunately I also thought Ace would run, so we were in somewhat of a pickle and to add to that mrbabyhands didn't get in. Frankly I'm disgusted at a lot of the first day, but at least Pyrr did not make mayor off of Day one clue analysis, the most useless thing in the game.
RoL's inactivity is kind of bizarre, but at the same time, I'm pretty certain the mafia has been very slow in organizing. We already got one down from sheer luck (thank you SoG for not picking Pika Chu), and if we can get another quickly, we'll have two down before they even get themselves together. Mafia won't be able to recover quickly from this shock, and they won't have time to. This game is ours.
Now for the questioning of mrbabyhands....
He's good, this I assure you from playing against him one game, and it's not just because he knows irc techno stuff. You guys all know about how I found out 10 blues in BC's game by day 1 along with 2-4 misses, leading to a mafia victory despite a fast lynch. Well mrbabyhands and camlito killed 19/20 blues in 2 days. 4 I think were given to them, the rest they figured out.
I specifically asked Ace to bring him for this one along with Versatile in an effort to get good players. His analysis style is different than my own but it doesn't mean it's wrong, and some of the people questioning it look mighty suspicious. And lol@him being a smurf from sc2gg.
On this note, I bring to you all another suspect from the investigations of mrbabyhands and myself....Mandalor!
You guys have all seen mrbabyhand's first analysis of Mandalor. Mandalor's latest post is just adding fuel to the fire and I'll let him dissect that. Mandalor, however, already slipped up in an earlier post. How are you going to worm out of this now? "New104 is a bodyguard" yeah uh huh right...
Mandalor wrote: I was killed because of this [behavior analysis] when I was innocent in Ace's game while I heavily contributed for the town in Chuiu's (I think it was) 3rd game when I was mafia. (brackets + italics are my adding).
The first part is true, the second is a blatant lie. Mandalor never contributed to the town when he was mafia, and furthermore his second statement was a mafia point. Using false evidence to make a point for the mafia...I wonder.
This is Mandalor's history:
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Game 2- Mafia. Tried to fake DT, Ace tricked him in a rolecheck test and died at first lynch.
Game 3- Townie. This game he contributed quite a bit to the town with his own plan and actively debated suspects and ideas. Because of this, the mafia killed him off night 2. This is the only game where he actively contributed publically.
Ace's game- Townie. Stayed silent but was active. At the end of game 3 (before Ace's game began) he said he would be lying low to avoid being killed off early again. He fit my pattern of a previous contributer trying to hide as an inactive while being mafia, and I killed him second lynch.
Chuiu's previous aborted game- Medic. Just voted and tried to lay low so he wouldn't get killed.
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3 points against him in my own analyses:
1) He lied. His lie was trying to prove a mafia point. This point was to cast doubt on mrbabyhand's statement claiming that certain players were innocent because they were dissecting strategies. Mandalor wanted to show that mafia had contributed heavily to town strategy discussion. He just didn't realize that he couldn't use himself as an example.
2) He is attacking mrbabyhand's analyses with mafia reasoning: casting doubt on valid statements while adding nothing new.
3) He no longer fears mafia death, a direct switch from his previous 2 games as a town role.
Notice how in all of his history, he was only mafia once and in that game he died immediately after staying silent until the last minute; the complete opposite of what he claimed. I suppose it's possible that he somehow forgot that he never did what he claimed as mafia (lol).
Of course it's far more likely that he's lying because he's mafia trying to manipulate the town: after mrbabyhand's post asserting those people innocent he wants to make the town suspect those who were contributing to strategy discussion. The only reason I'd be questionable of my own logic is that it's such a huge and obvious blunder that a careful mafia shouldn't ever make. But I think his obvious motivations and the simple fact that mafia do slip up makes it a pretty convincing argument. And there's more.
As shown by the game history, when a town role, he's switched his style to that of lying low to avoid being killed early. In Ace's and Chuiu's latest game he basically didn't say anything and just voted. In this game, however, he spoke out immediately and was not afraid to make himself a possible mafia target. Maybe he got sick of staying silent early? Maybe he saw something that he alone could correct?
However, I think it's because he saw something that was true, and pointed out something bad for the mafia (mrbabyhand's statement of how the mafia weren't participating in strategy discussion). This first came to my attention because Mandalor now is speaking without fear of death. That fear of mafia death made him stay absolutely silent the previous 2 games (up until he was to be lynched). Now he's speaking freely. I wonder if he's doing this because he doesn't fear the mafia anymore hmm.
Honestly, the evidence against him is huge and the only reason we should lynch anyone else for day 1 is if they admit their guilt.
Now to attend to this other disgusting matter...
On March 19 2009 23:38 fusionsdf wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2009 17:54 Pika Chu wrote:On March 19 2009 10:26 fusionsdf wrote:On March 19 2009 09:41 Pika Chu wrote:
I change my vote for BloodyC0bbler.
It looks like i'm going to be the first lynched. After you'll see i'm innocent i hope you will grow up and stop being so naive.
Honestly, all the "clues" and connections that point me are very very forced. How is in any way better to lynch me if you think i'm more innocent than guilty? I mean it makes absolutely no sense since you are loosing one of your own, and the purpose is to kill mafia not kill your own just because it's the only one who has some weak clues pointing to him.
And you don't even know my role, so you are risking killing a medic, or a bodyguard or a vigilante just because you have no better alternative. Basically risk loosing the game because you can't simply think outside the box and step by the first evidence you were given.
And for those telling me to find clues. I honestly don't want to blame anyone. The only thing Pyrr did was find a clue and try and force connections with someone. I'm not going to try and frame someone like it's been done on me, for the sole purpose of not wanting to be found guilty when you'll be lynching one of ours because of my "findings".
Remember guys, it's finding clues, making connections and finding the guy that is hard, not the way around. Finding the guy then making connections and finding clues is the easy way and it's the trap you've been set and most are falling into. look, I don't want you to be lynched. If you want to stay alive, why not due some clue analysis of your own? If someone is a more likely suspect than you then it makes you safer right? I should point out that the first game MTF played this came up and he was about to be lynched. We encouraged to save himself, and he did by posting amazing clue analyses. Don't get mad at us if you get lynched; its because you didnt put enough effort into keeping yourself alive. About the inactives: yes, thats also a good method to lynch on. Does anyone have a list of inactives? Look, i couldn't care less if i get lynched, it's a game and it's the first time i play it. What i do care about is that you aren't thinking. Too many of you aren't reading all the posts and are way too enthusiast when they've been given a track, they even stop questioning over it and just go with the band wagon. And the second problem is, this stupid mentality of blaming someone else. I really really hate this mentality and i believe only retarded people use this who don't have enough integrity to stand on their own feet and you are telling me to use it and find someone to blame? Seriously man what am i, a 10 year kiddo or do i look retarded to you? Now i've realized that most (which have actually voted for pyrr) aren't really looking for clues and don't even care, they are only looking for show. And sorry but i am not willing to contribute to this senseless show, i prefer keeping things simple and honest. It's exactly like politics. Some people really don't give a fuck to what they say, they just watch the show and think "man, he did blame the other one for being a pedo? this guy is cool, i'm voting for him". Take a good look at everyone who voted for pyrr, they aren't interested in reasoning but in bandwagoning the simple stuff. Throw a bone and they'll fetch it, no questions asked. so basically: " I'm innocent, if you don't blindly believe me even though there are potential clues pointing my way, then you are doing it because you aren't thinking! I'm not even going to try and suggest someone else to lynch (with some reasoning) and I won't show I'm in any way useful to town at all! BUT YOU GUYS ARE MAKING A MISTAKE" nice defense. Like I said, if your head is on the chopping block, and you don't properly defend yourself, its your own damn fault. I don't want you lynched because its the cool thing to do, I want you lynched because you've had multiple chances to defend yourself and refused to do so
Fusion, this is an absolutely terrible attitude to have (as is the 'vote for office based on day 1 clue analysis). Think about it logically: you are asking a player to keep himself from being killed (from an incredibly stupid accusation) by doing day 1 clue analysis. Why don't you tell him you'll kill him unless he counts how many times Chuiu rhymes? That's just as useful as what you're suggesting now.
I'll repeat it as many times as needed. Early game clue analyses suck, because that's how the system is. The clue system relies on finding patterns to match profiles, which can then be linked to players more concretely to avoid red herrings. While profile linking is harder this game because there are no codenames (yes for certain), you need the repetition to be able to avoid red herrings and clearly match people (this is why clues are important LATE GAME). Sheesh, I would think people & especially veteran players like you would know by now how useless day 1 clues were. Thankfully BC & co argued against this while I was gone so we didn't have a Mayor elected by doing something useless and we didn't make an incredibly stupid lynch. Leave Pika Chu alone, his defense has been perfectly fine because there is no evidence against him. None.
Now let's go. We purposely made certainty hard in this game, but that doesn't mean we can't rip the mafia to shreds with our thinking.
edit: I'm dumb, mafia kills this night I forgot. Whatever let's get everyone convinced so day 1 moves fast.
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Haha you should be playing silly.
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So I messed up with the game progression. I thought for some reason that town had the mayor autolynch then a voted lynch, then the mafia go. Oops! So just keep my essay post in the back of your minds and move on to how we proceed during the night.
Also, 0zc3c thanks for your reply. The thing was, and I can expand on this if you want, that Mandalor is kind of an exception to what you said (green townies who realize they were to be the buffer). His actions in the previous two games he played when he was a green townie heavily suggest that he was very scared of being killed early by the mafia, and wanted to stay silent to avoid it. There is no reason why he should suddenly want to change and play risky (especially so if he was a blue).
Also, 0zc3c, Ace's labeling of 'veteran players' doesn't mean that they are free from suspicion. On the contrary, he suggests that the town focus their clue analysis on them instead and use rolechecks elsewhere. The thing is veteran players usually suspect each other first, so it's more efficient to get a read on others with DT checks than it is to use them on vets. For example, I have spent much more of my focus on those players that Ace listed than most others.
The issue is, and I was unaware of until my accomplices informed me, that BC cannot jail anyone tonight to protect them from mafia hits and that we cannot have a double lynch ready for the first voted lynch because it takes . I'm not sure why it's like this but it's another annoying stumbling block we have to go through. Medics really have to do their job well tonight, and I heavily suggest everyone read over Ace's strategy again and the players contributing the most (qualitatively) to the town.
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On March 20 2009 10:49 Qatol wrote:
Let me be clear on this, since everyone seems more confused about medics protecting the target. That is not the reasoning here. The reason I want hits called out is to avoid DTs rolechecking the targets and to avoid vigis stacking hits. The second being by far the more pressing issue.
Qatol is right. Town is just sidetracking itself in a silly debate again.
Concentrate on the suspects. Mandalor was brought up to the plate earlier and in a few hours I'll reveal some even stronger findings.
The key thing is that medics need to put themselves in the mafia's shoes and think how they would act, then protect based on that. You guys can literally win the game if you make a few key saves on important people who may or may not be in the spotlight.
Pyrr, that is not going to be a rare opportunity. There are already 2 (at least) suspects who have so much evidence stacked against them and for some bizarre reason we can't use our double lynch this time.
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On March 20 2009 11:30 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 10:09 dreamflower wrote:By the way, I feel I should point this out. It says in the roles post: On March 11 2009 23:03 Chuiu wrote:
A special note on roles: All roles must be used at night and only the Detective clue check ability and Medic ability may be used on Day 1. Roles may be declared before night but they will not happen until night. Sheriff and Mayor will hide the roles of the elected players so that a Detective role check will show them as Sheriff/Mayor and nothing else. I'm pretty sure all the medics know that they should be using their abilities tonight to protect valuable players. However, I'd like to remind detectives that they should use their clue-check ability. Specifically, they should be asking if specific sentences in the Day One posts are clues. At least this should help us figure out how clues are described in this game and give us a start for clue analysis. Since everyone is just going in circles on a topic which DOES NOT MATTER right now, I'm going to point out just about the only recent post about something which DOES matter. Since we have established that day 1 clues are hard to find and interpret but DTs HAVE to use a cluecheck, I would like to point out that this is a very good idea.
Yeah agreed. I think that efforts should be spent first of all on finding clues for DTs to check, because DTs who have made these kinds of choices on their own in the past were terrible at it. Like 100% wrong. A group discussion might bring more information out and maybe have a good
Remember, what should the DT's clue check and against whom? We should have a variety of choices because they have to use it now.
And finally....the only reason for vigi's revealing themselves is to avoid overlapping vigi hits when there are at least 2 suspects that vigis should be hitting. Let's save this discussion until that actually happens. Can we please drop this either way it's getting nowhere.
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On March 20 2009 11:44 Qatol wrote:
No, I argue that they use the other clue check ability. The "is this a clue?" ability. We have enough trouble even with THAT in day 1 posts. I don't think we should try to make a connection. That simply won't happen.
You're right for some reason I thought we didn't include that this game.
I need to read the first page more thoroughly -_-
This isn't my specialty and I have other things to prepare so I'll let the people eager do this point out clearly the important potential clue sentences DTs should ask about.
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On March 20 2009 16:59 blue_arrow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 12:56 Bockit wrote:On March 20 2009 12:48 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:On March 20 2009 12:43 Ace wrote:On March 20 2009 12:32 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
dreamflower, i like the idea of betrayal regarding the man that helped Chuiu up and then stabbed him. Why would Chuiu, the sheriff and hardened crime fighter, accept the help up from a criminal? It could be someone he recognized or knew that betrayed him by siding with the mafia. So we should keep an eye in the day posts for someone that kills in a deceitful way, by tricking his victims into thinking he is going to help them.
I suggested a possible clue link from the 4th mafia that stayed behind, waiting for Incognito, to the name "Lurker." It sort of fits, but I want to bring it up again so others can see it.
Also: what kind of person could run with their hands behind their head and also grab a gun and throw it to the side? Perhaps someone who is very "Versatile." It's possible but i don't think Chuiu usually writes clues like that. I'd imagine that mafioso to be hinting towards some kind of animal, like a monkey, or someone with multiple appendages. If it helps Versatile is also synonymous with being ambidextrous. However for both their hands to be behind their head, and then grab something suggests another pair of hands doesn't it? Yeah I agree that the clue definitely suggests some extra body part or force being used. Versatile's name just jumped out to me on the list when I was thinking about that particular mafioso. On March 20 2009 12:44 redtooth wrote:On March 20 2009 12:39 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Yeah I see pikachus and lions put their hands behind their heads all the time don't you edited to show how dumb day 1 clue analysis is. its good work you guys are doing but i don't know if it will produce any results. i'm going to sleep now. hahah excellent point. Don't worry, eventually someone will say the gladiator link in my profile is a clue because a mafioso killed someone with a knife (oh if only MidnightGladius was playing  ) Was it a sharp knife? Might be blue_arrow imo. how come whenever somebody gets killed by something sharp, or whenever something is described as sharp, people always point to me? this superficial connection has been made in almost every single mafia game I've been in =p
I like how this is your first post.
Silent mafia much?
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As I believe there's a high chance I will die tonight (medics, mafia, prove me wrong), I'm going to make as much information public as I can.
Up on the guillotine next is Scaramanga.
This analysis rests on many points and can only be wrong if an incredible strong of coincidences have ocurred. I hate having to make these so long and indepth but a) I want to everyone to see how it's done so they can emulate it with other suspects and b) the town this game has frankly been quite stupid overall and I don't want random questioning of something that is very concrete or worse, people ignoring it (quite possibly mafia driven). Here it goes:
1) Scaramanga is normally a very active person. In BC's game he was active all game both publically and privately when he was a green townie. However, in Caller's game, where he was a jack, he stayed publically silent in an effort to lay low (only jack). This was noticed and he died first day. This game is very much the same. Scaramanga has only posted a simple vote for BC and then a few times more after a certain incident happened and his name came up. More on that later.
2) Because Scaramanga's public silence just proves him being either blue or red, it is of course not sufficient to stop here. What's interesting is that because of either a mistake by himself or by Chuiu (we can't know), Scara cannot be blue. This is because he roleclaimed BG to BC before BG roles should have been passed out (more later).
Bodyguards are only drawn from green townies. Rationally speaking, it's plain stupid and a newbie move for a legit BG to come forth and privately tell the sheriff that he's a BG (no gain considerable risk). Scaramanga is not a newbie. He may have done this impulsively, yes, that is true. But this would totally conflict with every other part of this analysis. For Scara's side or not, there is another person who roleclaimed BG but I don't know who it is. This is a lot of evidence already, but oh yes there is more.
3) While Scaramanga has been quiet in public, he has been quite active behind the scenes. We can safely rule out external factors for his inactivity through this. Now here is the proof:
I msg'ed Scar to get more information on this matter. Here's the response I got:
[Scara] honestly i havent read the thread at all, ive been busy with school and any free time is normally put into homework or sc
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Original Message: [Ver]
Hey where have you been? Thread's been pretty desolate and we need your activity. Were you out of town or something and had to just vote BC and run off?
I want to hear your thoughts on Caller and Malongo. Caller's been strange though he might not have the time because he has finals. You worked with him behind the scenes in BC's game when he was quieter too so you might have some ideas here.
Malongo is kinda questionable and is a pretty weird character. But at the same time he's hard to read for me so while I'm suspicious I have much certainty.
Now consider these facts:
-He has been messaging BC nonstop on msn. Clearly he has the time, clearly he's interested. In fact he has so much time he's going through crazy efforts to set up a wow account.
-He was so up to date with the thread that he messaged BC that he was his bodyguard before the roles were supposed to be sent out (again, whether Chuiu or Scara messed up is completely unknown. Don't assume anything here, focus on the stuff we can know).
Thus, it is abundantly clear that he lied to me in a cop out response. While townies do lie sometimes, he has no reason to lie here.
4) The moment BC revealed that BGs couldn't have been given yet, Scara immediately went silent. If he was innocent, he has no reason to do this. He can just say "well Chuiu made a mistake tehn cause I'm BG." But he didn't. He knew he was caught (or had some crazy coincidental emergency). Furthermore, he did not come back. BC says that Scar talks to him every few minutes, making a long break like this extremely strange. Something doesn't add up and it should be pretty obvious at this point.
5) Finally, there was a particular incident in the thread. Ace had labeled Scara as part of the 'Zodiac Braves,' one of twelve townies to get protection. However, Scara tried to downplay this. In Ace's words:
Ace wrote:Look at Scaras last post. He pretty much "tried to take himself off the list" saying he isn't that good. Ozc also backed him on that but we know to take anything he does for now lightly. [my edit: not true 0zc3c, is definitely a suspect for doing that]
I specifically said in that post these are the people I WOULD target if I were mafia. So Scara shouldn't even be feeling any kind of way about being on the list. It's suspicious he'd even want to be taken off of it as any legit townie on that list is actually being protected by being on it.
Ace has a very good point: the only reason Scar should need to say anything would be if he was mafia. If he was green, why bother (and he'd be active). If he was blue, he'd want the protection the list afforded him. If he was mafia...he wouldn't want to be singled out. Guess which is the odd one out.
Summary: Yes, there is a possibility that Chuiu just messed up and Scara is an innocent somehow flagged in an absurd number of coincidences. However, the far likelier story is that he is just mafia and has messed up in so many ways.
BC can post the logs if necessary (sorry I had just reinstalled pidgin and apparently it doens't come with autologging).
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(Double posted into parts more manageable because I don't want everyone to run away in fear from my essay posts)
Here is my Mandalor analysis because I'm pretty sure most people haven't read it yet. If you haven't, DO SO. I'm sick of the town ignoring the important stuff (cluecheck material, suspects, Ace's plan) and focusing on pointless arguments that aren't producing any value, like the day 1 clues or the endless vigi debate.
Show nested quote +Earlier post:On this note, I bring to you all another suspect from the investigations of mrbabyhands and myself....Mandalor! You guys have all seen mrbabyhand's first analysis of Mandalor. Mandalor's latest post is just adding fuel to the fire and I'll let him dissect that. Mandalor, however, already slipped up in an earlier post. How are you going to worm out of this now? "New104 is a bodyguard" yeah uh huh right... Mandalor wrote: I was killed because of this [behavior analysis] when I was innocent in Ace's game while I heavily contributed for the town in Chuiu's (I think it was) 3rd game when I was mafia. (brackets + italics are my adding). The first part is true, the second is a blatant lie. Mandalor never contributed to the town when he was mafia, and furthermore his second statement was a mafia point. Using false evidence to make a point for the mafia...I wonder. This is Mandalor's history: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Game 2- Mafia. Tried to fake DT, Ace tricked him in a rolecheck test and died at first lynch. Game 3- Townie. This game he contributed quite a bit to the town with his own plan and actively debated suspects and ideas. Because of this, the mafia killed him off night 2. This is the only game where he actively contributed publically. Ace's game- Townie. Stayed silent but was active. At the end of game 3 (before Ace's game began) he said he would be lying low to avoid being killed off early again. He fit my pattern of a previous contributer trying to hide as an inactive while being mafia, and I killed him second lynch. Chuiu's previous aborted game- Medic. Just voted and tried to lay low so he wouldn't get killed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 points against him in my own analyses: 1) He lied. His lie was trying to prove a mafia point. This point was to cast doubt on mrbabyhand's statement claiming that certain players were innocent because they were dissecting strategies. Mandalor wanted to show that mafia had contributed heavily to town strategy discussion. He just didn't realize that he couldn't use himself as an example. 2) He is attacking mrbabyhand's analyses with mafia reasoning: casting doubt on valid statements while adding nothing new. 3) He no longer fears mafia death, a direct switch from his previous 2 games as a town role. Notice how in all of his history, he was only mafia once and in that game he died immediately after staying silent until the last minute; the complete opposite of what he claimed. I suppose it's possible that he somehow forgot that he never did what he claimed as mafia (lol). Of course it's far more likely that he's lying because he's mafia trying to manipulate the town: after mrbabyhand's post asserting those people innocent he wants to make the town suspect those who were contributing to strategy discussion. The only reason I'd be questionable of my own logic is that it's such a huge and obvious blunder that a careful mafia shouldn't ever make. But I think his obvious motivations and the simple fact that mafia do slip up makes it a pretty convincing argument. And there's more. As shown by the game history, when a town role, he's switched his style to that of lying low to avoid being killed early. In Ace's and Chuiu's latest game he basically didn't say anything and just voted. In this game, however, he spoke out immediately and was not afraid to make himself a possible mafia target. Maybe he got sick of staying silent early? Maybe he saw something that he alone could correct? However, I think it's because he saw something that was true, and pointed out something bad for the mafia (mrbabyhand's statement of how the mafia weren't participating in strategy discussion). This first came to my attention because Mandalor now is speaking without fear of death. That fear of mafia death made him stay absolutely silent the previous 2 games (up until he was to be lynched). Now he's speaking freely. I wonder if he's doing this because he doesn't fear the mafia anymore hmm. Honestly, the evidence against him is huge and the only reason we should lynch anyone else for day 1 is if they admit their guilt.
Thus town needs to lynch Mandalor and Scaramanga in whatever order they feel like it. I personally suggest leaving them both available and just letting the people decide. Other person is vigi'ed or lynched the next day.
My suspect list (debate, analyze them people!):
Caller (Out of character behavior. Bandwagon voting babyhands because ace/i did? A bad campaign that got canceled? No other activity?)
Malongo (linked with Caller)
LucasWoJ (Disagrees with mrbabyhands to back up Mandalor)
0zc3c (subtly casts doubt . Subtly tries to keep Scaramanga from the spotlight)
Good luck. Hopefully I'm not dead, but precautions must be made in case.
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United States2186 Posts
Hoho I'm not surprised at my death but it looks like I owe Scara an apology. What a crazy string of coincidences -_-
Good luck everyone. The foundation has been laid.
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United States2186 Posts
On April 03 2009 15:06 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On April 03 2009 14:20 Fishball wrote:MBH, SoG, BC, and the DT's did all the work. I didn't do shit  hurray for being utterly useless
Ya you were you bum.
I'd like to hear what the mafia thought about the game. Was inactivity a big issue for you guys?
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United States2186 Posts
I felt the game slightly favored the mafia before the game began. Nothing's changed in that regard.
Rolechecks only seem strong if they hit the right targets. Because the town vastly outplayed the mafia, they were able to hit the right targets. The speed and accuracy was due to establishing a lot of innocents very quickly (by day 1), behind the scenes planning, and with a little bit of red herring clue luck.
This game really didn't show anything either way about the balance because of the disparity of the teams. All we really learned is that manual balancing is necessary unfortunately.
Moral of the story is that the mafia must be proactive. If they sit back and try to hide with inactives, they should and will lose.
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EPT
