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United States2071 Posts
From: Caller Subject: Re: Kill Power Date: 12/31/08 10:47 #/2 rounded up ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Mafia kill power is...= to their members? From: Caller Subject: Re: Sanity Date: 12/31/08 10:45 just dt ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Oh also when a DT dies, is he simply revealed as a DT or is his sanity revealedd also? | ||
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Things we know: 1. BC claims DT. 2. mikeymoo claims blue. 3. BC claims he checked mikeymoo. If 2 is true, then 1 is false. If 2 is false, we know nothing concerning 1. Possible actions: a) kill mikeymoo b) kill BC Possible outcomes from possible actions: I'll count neutral outcomes as good since we don't have anyone else we want to target day 1. a) kill mikeymoo i) 33% mikeymoo is green - we know nothing - neutral ii) 33% mikeymoo is blue - BC is VI or mafia - 50% good (we know one mafia) 50% bad (we lose a blue AND we know nothing) iii) 33% mikeymoo is red - either a mafia ploy (50% bad), or BC is a sane DT. Which would mean that we know nothing about the other DTs sanity. 50% good. I'm counting it as good because we get one mafia kill. thus, the expected outcome from killing mikeymoo is: 66% good. (33% each from case i, and half of 33% for case ii and iii = 66%) b) kill BC i) 33% BC is green - possible but means BC is just a bored townie. bad ii) 33% BC is blue - 1) BC is jack - mikey moo would thus be mafia - fair trade = good 2) BC is DT - we know nothing - bad 3) BC is VI (I don't know if VI is a blue role but I'll post it here) - we know nothing but at least we get rid of the VI. neutral iii) 33% BC is red - good. we still know nothing about mikeymoo. By killing BC, we get a 55% good outcome. (2/3 of 33% from outcome ii, and 33% from outcome iii.) Now I know this does not take into account the motivations etc, and that some outcomes could be "better" than other outcomes, although this is measuring everything on a black/white scale. It is just something to think about. If anyone can see a flaw in THIS ASPECT of the analysis, feel free to pm or post something in public. * DISCLAIMER* PLEASE DO NOT VOTE SOLELY BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS. It is just for discussion. *edit* I don't know why, but * followed immediately by a D produces a smiley? | ||
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United States2071 Posts
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On December 31 2008 13:38 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Yet your down with "someone claiming to be voice of DT" and laying burden of proof on the accused. So your fine with someone blindly trusting X to lynch Mafia A but totally against DT A just calling out Mafia A. Wow sounds like we have a winner. Ace you practice policy completely differently than you preach. You would only staunchly protect mikey this hard if you 100% knew his role, and only ways to do that would be to be a mafia with him, or have looked at his pm's. Not really because if you have a mouthpiece the mouthpiece is most likely a townie. Not a mafia. Since you don't know who fed the mouthpiece the information, you CAN'T kill the accuser. About the 33% thing, its probably 40% blue, 40% green 20 % red. That means 70% for mikeymoo. and BC 46%. However, based on the fact that most people believe he is either mafia/VI, it becomes 100%. Based on the idea that BC is blue (jack/DT/VI), he has 66% . Accounting for the fact that perhaps there are more mafia or more blues, the benefits from killing either is pretty much the same if you think BC is blue, and you should definitely kill BC if you think he is mafia/VI. Otherwise vote mikeymoo. | ||
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2. If we don't, we only have less than 10 hours now. And if we are to switch, who are we going to switch to? 0cz3c? | ||
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On December 31 2008 16:15 MoRe_mInErAls wrote: I'm towny. A detective checked me out and let me know he trusts me. So yeah.. Was that detective 0zc3c? | ||
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which someone already mentioned TruthBringer - Martin Luther was trying to find faults in the Catholic Church and say salvation by faith...thus bringing people truth? Pretty strong match. Another match could be RebirthOfLegend. Rebirth indicating a revival or rennaissance in a way of thinking, i.e, the reformation of the Christian Church? | ||
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United States2071 Posts
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On January 02 2009 16:08 chaoser wrote: Unscrupulous Doc-can protect one mafia from a night attack from Boondock Saint or Jack. Cannot protect against Meth dealer-in fact, he dies if protecting someone going to meth dealer. You are also limited to 5 uses before the AMA gets on your ass. only protect mafia Ah ok. Then its safer then I thought. And now since the hawk thing fails, shall we reconsider the Martin Luther idea? (Tomorrow, as now I'm going to bed.) | ||
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1. Is the voterigger going to come out and double lynch? 2. Who are we killing? Based on the clues/town opinion I guess Heros)Pink is the most likely target? I'll vote for whoever the town wants (if they decide soon) or else I'll vote for him...the clue is relatively strong. Although you do have to make some connections and I don't know if Caller really is looking this deep. Town better decide soon or else we won't know what to do. | ||
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On January 05 2009 05:20 chaoser wrote: guys, since mickeymoo is silenced, we need to lynch him as to avoid his conversion. Located here in case I die. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=53919 this is the will i got from him as well as this message. I will try to pick off from where he left off. From: mikeymoo Subject: Re: final words Date: 1/5/09 04:50 PRIVATE STUFF... ----------------------------------------- Original Message: So if I get silenced, lynch me. I'm no use to town. The link I gave says to trust you, so if you say lynch me, I hope town does. Preferably rig my vote with somebody else. If I'm not silenced, well then I guess life can continue. PRIVATE STUFF... This post makes us lose the game. Now the mafia knows the person mikeymoo passed on his info too. I hope you're just a decoy/mouthpiece...otherwise they might convert you instead... | ||
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Get real. Trying to draw fire like that might be nice, but it doesn't work. Lets hope there's 2+ medics left. Also when does day 3 end? | ||
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Tracker. Can watch one person per night. If they are visited during the night, the tracker is notified. Stalker. Can watch one person per night. If they visit someone during the night, the stalker is notified. Ghost. Retains the power to talk while dead. But seriously people should play their roles. I think its because TL mafia games usually tend to run around a secret elite blue only club. Although I think greens could be able to get in if the are ACTIVE. | ||
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5 mafia 1 godfather - appears as a townie 2 DTs - infinite rolechecks; 1 per night 2 Doctors 2 Vigilantes - infinite kills; 1 per night 1 Mail man. If the mailman dies, he chooses someone to take with him. 17 townies mafia kill power = # of mafia members. Simple and small. The town can't wait to make a secret town organization because a) few blue roles, b) not enough time to make one because the mafia will win (theoretically) in 3 days. (Since mafia wins essentially if they outnumber the town.) | ||
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