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TL Mafia V: The Wrath of KHAAAAAANN

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
December 31 2008 01:50 GMT
#165
I haven't finished reading through the whole thread yet. Some useful information from some of the questions I've seen:

From: Caller
Subject: Re: Kill Power
Date: 12/31/08 10:47
#/2 rounded up

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Mafia kill power is...= to their members?

From: Caller
Subject: Re: Sanity
Date: 12/31/08 10:45
just dt

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Oh also when a DT dies, is he simply revealed as a DT or is his sanity revealedd also?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-12-31 03:12:21
December 31 2008 03:11 GMT
#179
Ok. I read through the thread:

Things we know:

1. BC claims DT.
2. mikeymoo claims blue.
3. BC claims he checked mikeymoo.

If 2 is true, then 1 is false.
If 2 is false, we know nothing concerning 1.

Possible actions:

a) kill mikeymoo
b) kill BC

Possible outcomes from possible actions:

I'll count neutral outcomes as good since we don't have anyone else we want to target day 1.

a) kill mikeymoo
i) 33% mikeymoo is green - we know nothing - neutral
ii) 33% mikeymoo is blue - BC is VI or mafia - 50% good (we know one mafia) 50% bad (we lose a blue AND we know nothing)
iii) 33% mikeymoo is red - either a mafia ploy (50% bad), or BC is a sane DT. Which would mean that we know nothing about the other DTs sanity. 50% good. I'm counting it as good because we get one mafia kill.

thus, the expected outcome from killing mikeymoo is: 66% good. (33% each from case i, and half of 33% for case ii and iii = 66%)

b) kill BC
i) 33% BC is green - possible but means BC is just a bored townie. bad
ii) 33% BC is blue -
1) BC is jack - mikey moo would thus be mafia - fair trade = good
2) BC is DT - we know nothing - bad
3) BC is VI (I don't know if VI is a blue role but I'll post it here) - we know nothing but at least we get rid of the VI. neutral
iii) 33% BC is red - good. we still know nothing about mikeymoo.

By killing BC, we get a 55% good outcome. (2/3 of 33% from outcome ii, and 33% from outcome iii.)

Now I know this does not take into account the motivations etc, and that some outcomes could be "better" than other outcomes, although this is measuring everything on a black/white scale. It is just something to think about. If anyone can see a flaw in THIS ASPECT of the analysis, feel free to pm or post something in public.

* DISCLAIMER*

PLEASE DO NOT VOTE SOLELY BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS. It is just for discussion.

*edit*

I don't know why, but * followed immediately by a D produces a smiley?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
December 31 2008 03:20 GMT
#181
Oh also if you've played with BC before and you are CERTAIN that he wouldn't do this if he were green, you could ignore my point under b) i) and that would make BC an 83% good outcome. (2/3 times 50% from outcome ii plus 50% from outcome iii.)
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
December 31 2008 04:51 GMT
#232
On December 31 2008 13:38 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 31 2008 13:34 Ace wrote:
On December 31 2008 13:24 chaoser wrote:
On December 31 2008 13:16 Bockit wrote:
On December 31 2008 13:08 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On December 31 2008 13:02 Ace wrote:
ok BC just blew his rouse. He can't be a DT. nice way trying to discredit me there buddy but it wont work.

Lynch BC. And me defending mikey moo doesn't imply there is a connection between us. I'm defending him on the basis that you're a lying sac of shit. Nice trying to analyze my playstyle but you still failed. I never use skewed logic, as your impending death is about to reveal.



You did use skewed logic. In a game where as a DT i could be insane, more information is gained from the accused death than the accuser. With my death nothin is certain at all about the accused but my blue role.

You seem to forget that.

As for analyzing your playstyle, thats a general rundown of it and you know it.

Regardless, it comes down to the choice of the town to believe two players who both have claimed blue, one openly to help the town, the other to help himself.

Lynch me and a blue dies tonight,
Lynch mikey and a green/red dies. pretty simple


Except mikey is saying he's blue, which paints you as mafia/village idiot. We have as much reason to believe him as you?



but numbers got run and even if they are a little off, i'm willing to take the chance and lynch mm. atleast BC roleclaimed while mm just said he was blue


mikeymoo doesn't have to role claim to prove himself. The entire burden of proof rests on BC, not mm.

Otherwise every game would start with mafia roleclaiming a DT and watching the town stupidly lynch.


Yet your down with "someone claiming to be voice of DT" and laying burden of proof on the accused. So your fine with someone blindly trusting X to lynch Mafia A but totally against DT A just calling out Mafia A. Wow sounds like we have a winner. Ace you practice policy completely differently than you preach. You would only staunchly protect mikey this hard if you 100% knew his role, and only ways to do that would be to be a mafia with him, or have looked at his pm's.


Not really because if you have a mouthpiece the mouthpiece is most likely a townie. Not a mafia. Since you don't know who fed the mouthpiece the information, you CAN'T kill the accuser.

About the 33% thing, its probably 40% blue, 40% green 20 % red.

That means 70% for mikeymoo.
and BC 46%. However, based on the fact that most people believe he is either mafia/VI, it becomes 100%. Based on the idea that BC is blue (jack/DT/VI), he has 66% . Accounting for the fact that perhaps there are more mafia or more blues, the benefits from killing either is pretty much the same if you think BC is blue, and you should definitely kill BC if you think he is mafia/VI. Otherwise vote mikeymoo.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
December 31 2008 05:03 GMT
#235
1. If BC is VI kill him off and get it over with.
2. If we don't, we only have less than 10 hours now. And if we are to switch, who are we going to switch to? 0cz3c?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
December 31 2008 07:21 GMT
#299
On December 31 2008 16:15 MoRe_mInErAls wrote:
I'm towny. A detective checked me out and let me know he trusts me. So yeah..


Was that detective 0zc3c?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 02 2009 06:52 GMT
#551
Nailed Theses To Your Door--Martin Luther
which someone already mentioned

TruthBringer - Martin Luther was trying to find faults in the Catholic Church and say salvation by faith...thus bringing people truth? Pretty strong match. Another match could be RebirthOfLegend. Rebirth indicating a revival or rennaissance in a way of thinking, i.e, the reformation of the Christian Church?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 02 2009 07:03 GMT
#559
If nevake is the zombie, mafia doc WOULD want to save him. Right now zombie gets to kill someone WHENEVER they want to, which could mean when we know for sure who the mafia are.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 02 2009 07:29 GMT
#570
On January 02 2009 16:08 chaoser wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2009 16:03 Incognito wrote:
If nevake is the zombie, mafia doc WOULD want to save him. Right now zombie gets to kill someone WHENEVER they want to, which could mean when we know for sure who the mafia are.


Unscrupulous Doc-can protect one mafia from a night attack from Boondock Saint or Jack. Cannot protect against Meth dealer-in fact, he dies if protecting someone going to meth dealer. You are also limited to 5 uses before the AMA gets on your ass.

only protect mafia


Ah ok. Then its safer then I thought.

And now since the hawk thing fails, shall we reconsider the Martin Luther idea?

(Tomorrow, as now I'm going to bed.)
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 02 2009 18:43 GMT
#590
That would be reasonable, except for the fact that the mole gets his info tonight. So perhaps we should split up the information so that the mole can't get all of it. Like in the last (failed) game, we just have to compartmentalize to limit our losses. Any other confirmed blues/greens we can trust with info?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 02 2009 19:04 GMT
#594
I don't see why we think we lost yet. Sure we lost a jack/DT/2 medics, but as far as I can see, the town has a pretty good chance. Based on Lucas' post (assuming he's not mafia) we have ANOTHER jack/ confirmed DT/ 2 vote riggers. Assuming these can survive tonight, we're in good shape, especially with a martyr who can save from lynches and the fact that we two of their bombers are dead. It looks like Caller decided to fill the game full of multiple blue roles? (and doubles of mafia roles too. Lets not try to imagine the possibility of there being two mafia docs. That would be gg for us.)
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 02 2009 20:25 GMT
#608
What happens if the mafia didn't send in who hit who? Would it then be random?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 03 2009 06:22 GMT
#676
So...the thread is dead.

1. Is the voterigger going to come out and double lynch?
2. Who are we killing?

Based on the clues/town opinion I guess Heros)Pink is the most likely target? I'll vote for whoever the town wants (if they decide soon) or else I'll vote for him...the clue is relatively strong. Although you do have to make some connections and I don't know if Caller really is looking this deep. Town better decide soon or else we won't know what to do.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 03 2009 07:58 GMT
#680
Unfortunately there are no vote checks
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 05 2009 00:54 GMT
#731
On January 05 2009 05:20 chaoser wrote:
guys, since mickeymoo is silenced, we need to lynch him as to avoid his conversion.

Located here in case I die.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=53919

this is the will i got from him as well as this message. I will try to pick off from where he left off.

From: mikeymoo
Subject: Re: final words
Date: 1/5/09 04:50

PRIVATE STUFF...

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
So if I get silenced, lynch me. I'm no use to town. The link I gave says to trust you, so if you say lynch me, I hope town does. Preferably rig my vote with somebody else. If I'm not silenced, well then I guess life can continue.

PRIVATE STUFF...



This post makes us lose the game. Now the mafia knows the person mikeymoo passed on his info too. I hope you're just a decoy/mouthpiece...otherwise they might convert you instead...
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-01-05 06:11:39
January 05 2009 06:09 GMT
#740
Ya. With that kind of post the mafia will be sure to recruit you!

Get real.

Trying to draw fire like that might be nice, but it doesn't work. Lets hope there's 2+ medics left.

Also when does day 3 end?
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 06 2009 02:39 GMT
#782
So I come back to see a bunch of...(in)activity. Along with some clue analysis? And a bunch of people we really don't want to kill but would be dangerous if converted. Grr...I guess I'll go with the clue though it isn't the greatest. Perhaps it would be better to kill our liabilities now. But voting for midnightgladius unless the town decides otherwise.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 06 2009 04:53 GMT
#829
Maybe next game gm should modkill all inactive players daily. Either that or invent more pointless but funny roles. Or maybe some not so pointless but not overpowered roles that are fun + increase mafia kill power to balance.

Tracker. Can watch one person per night. If they are visited during the night, the tracker is notified.
Stalker. Can watch one person per night. If they visit someone during the night, the stalker is notified.

Ghost. Retains the power to talk while dead.

But seriously people should play their roles. I think its because TL mafia games usually tend to run around a secret elite blue only club. Although I think greens could be able to get in if the are ACTIVE.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-01-06 06:14:04
January 06 2009 06:11 GMT
#862
30 people

5 mafia
1 godfather - appears as a townie
2 DTs - infinite rolechecks; 1 per night
2 Doctors
2 Vigilantes - infinite kills; 1 per night
1 Mail man. If the mailman dies, he chooses someone to take with him.
17 townies

mafia kill power = # of mafia members.

Simple and small. The town can't wait to make a secret town organization because a) few blue roles, b) not enough time to make one because the mafia will win (theoretically) in 3 days. (Since mafia wins essentially if they outnumber the town.)
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 06 2009 07:28 GMT
#873
I like how everyone thinks the game is dead because of a heated discussion between DEAD PEOPLE.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
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