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TL Mafia 3 [Night 5]
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On October 25 2008 15:45 MidnightGladius wrote: Cheers once more! Let's try to prevent last game from happening again  I have no idea what you're talking about. >.> | ||
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On top of that, with the mayor/bodyguard system gone, we have no way of verifying the security of a matter when someone says "vote to lynch X". So, townies are going to have to draw their own conclusions, because the mafia aren't going to sit around letting just a few vocal townies live like they did last game. The best counter town has to that is to make sure that all of the town is active; they can't silence every voice at once if the whole town is talking. /pregame town bias Watch me flip Mafia.  | ||
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On October 31 2008 02:14 randombum wrote: No way to prove you are a vet. Mafia can false claim it and just pwn everyone. Yeah, the only reason people knew to trust in the veterans towards the end of the last game was because the list of roles collected by Ace & Plexa was publicly available after it was revealed that Mafia had found the list themselves much earlier on. There is no clear-cut way to verify the role of anyone this time around. Everyone will just have to bank on their own decision making skills! | ||
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On November 02 2008 04:23 Empyrean wrote: Oh, also analysis of voting patters is also useful. EDIT: And can I continue clue analysis once I die? Like in a blog or something? Agreed on the voting patterns being useful as well, which would be obvious if you followed what I was doing last game. XD And I think public continuation is pretty much the same thing as playing after you're dead, so I don't imagine that'd be allowed. You could do what I did and just write it all up in a text document and post it up after the game is over, though. | ||
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Anyway, I haven't had time to read through the thread yet, but here's my assessment on the clues so far. Keep in mind that all of these connections are going to be weak, as we're just starting here. MidnightGladius: Profile Quote: "It's time to acknowledge the inevitable. Stifle your pride and embrace the glory of change." Clues: + Show Spoiler + "the noose now tight around his neck Chuiu took a look over at the man ready to pull the switch. "Embrace the release that death brings you", he stated as he pulled the switch." "Then one person stood atop the gallows embracing the moment he cried out to the town" Both instances of the word "embrace" are during a time of change, which directly correlates with the profile quote. SoleSteeler: Profile Quote: "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold" Clue: + Show Spoiler + ""We can trust no mayor, no governor, no authority this day or the next." Contains a message that the central order is no longer in place. Correlation with the quote, as order falls apart. Scorch: Profile Quote: "What? The land of the free? Whoever told you that is your enemy." Clue: + Show Spoiler + ""We can trust no mayor, no governor, no authority this day or the next." Anti-authority sentiment profile quote by a publically outspoken anti-authority band. You see where this is going. Plexa: Profile Quote: "Spirit will set you free" Clue: + Show Spoiler + ""Embrace the release that death brings you", he stated as he pulled the switch." Ok, nobody jump on me for this one. Just a note, and it's a very minor connection, anyway. And finally, someone I can't find a connection to, but: "everyone was excited to see him finally pay the price." "Vengeance was the theme" Seems like someone wants revenge. | ||
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On the other hand, Folca has come forward saying he's a detective, and claims that Ace is mafia. Whether or not this is true, we know that one of them is Mafia now. So, clearly our choice should be to pick between these two tonight - either way, we get a confirmed Mafia, which is huge for our first night. Since the act of revealing your crucial role as a detective this early is more than a little on the foolish side, I'm going with Folca. If it turns out he's telling the truth then he would've died by Mafia's hands anyway for revealing his role, and we can go after Ace. I vote to lynch Folca. | ||
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Reasons to Lynch Ace: Clues: + Show Spoiler + ""We can trust no mayor, no governor, no authority this day or the next." May relate to his role in the last game as an authority figure. Other: + Show Spoiler + He has been accused of a rolecheck by Folca, who has made several posts trying to provide information. Reasons to Lynch Folca: Clues: + Show Spoiler + "Many in the crowd were excessively enthusiastic about the lynching and many were grave and quiet." May be a reference to his profile picture. Other: + Show Spoiler + He has accused Ace of being rolechecked as mafia and implicated several other prominent players, myself included, with faulty and rushed reasoning. Overall View: Lynching Ace or Folca is a fifty/fifty gamble, which is better than can be said of lynching any other person in the game right now. That being said, Ace has been setting plans into motion from the beginning and engaging in active discussion with the people trying to organize town. This is a good thing, and Ace's plans have not been openly malicious and have helped move town along in discussion and avoid the mistake (ironically) of revealing DT's for the towns gain due to the suicide bomber. Now, this is not to say I believe Ace is town for sure, as what he has done is the only smart thing he could do given the previous game. Ace is not proven innocent by any means. Neither, however, is Folca. And Folca came out of nowhere with his accusation and proceeded to call out several people with absolutely no basis for most of it. Now, mafia or true detective, this was not a smart thing to do. Considering this, one must ask the origin of the actions' desperation: the only thing other than simple foolishness I can think of is that everything is less organized this early in the game. That can only benefit mafia, as they start off from the very beginning in a structured manner. Accusing key members early on would only benefit them. Now, assuming Ace's innocence, implicating and taking him out this early on would eliminate one of the strongest structures that town could organize itself around. This alone may be worth the attempt by mafia, especially if they're banking on him having an additional role, as nearly half of all of the town does. I can see it argued the other way around easily enough, though, and it is a fair view to have that doing this as a mafia member or a true detective doesn't make much sense this early on. But Folca has done it, and we can only prove the why by lynching one tonight. The evidence that either is telling the truth is about even. The matter of choosing is simply in the behavior, and the hoped-for outcome, as either way we risk losing someone of value. Personally, I think Folca is lying, and even if he weren't, town wouldn't get a proven DT the following day, because mafia would be insane to keep a revealed DT alive. So, there is only one argument for voting Ace over Folca: You believe Folca for whatever reason and want to make mafia waste a hit tonight. However, the same exact thing can be said of Ace, as if Folca is indeed red, then they wanted Ace dead early on, and will undoubtably use at least one hit on him tonight. I guess that about sums up my feelings on the matter. Ace is inherently more valuable as a structure than an unproven detective that has been revealed if he is indeed innocent. Edit: As I wrote this, Bockit essentially put it in a much more succient manner. :p | ||
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On November 04 2008 09:58 JeeJee wrote: I've finally caught up - tgwjiy i have a few suspicions based on behaviour in this thread. but really, the outcome of folca/ace will reveal so much information; it's likely everything i have now will be rendered totally baseless, so i will wait. p.s. how long until day? and could we get an updated vote list? Edit: Nevermind, Caller reposted it above me. I obviously don't agree with the lynching of Decaf, MidnightGladius, or JeeJee, given our current situation and the fact that they're all being voted for based off of clues from the very first day. | ||
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On November 04 2008 09:58 Caller wrote: edit: MTF your argument does make sense but it is still flawed in the sense that you've forgotten what if both of them are mafia. Under the assumption that Folca did a dumb play (which I doubt as mafia is too highly organized for this), why would they do something so stupid? Answer: to keep one of their brethren and give them higher status. This would explain why a large amount of people voted for Folca randomly, as by lynching folca, if he flips red that would "mean" Ace is "green" which may or may not be the case. Or they vote for him b/c he's a blue and by making us waste a lynch and not one of their hits they get an advantage here. This is definitely a possibility, though it would be even more of a gamble than any of the other scenarios put forth. That being said, my position still stands that it's worth more to take Folca down first with the possibility that Ace is alive than the other way around, as Folca will be a mafia target tonight if he is not lynched. Ace is pretty likely to be killed tonight by lynching or mafia, too, granted, but mafia are much more likely to leave him alive then they are Folca. Folca has a publically revealed role as a detective if we lynch Ace and find him red, whereas Ace will be under suspicion if we find red in Folca and Ace doesn't get killed. So, Folca equals sure death in this cycle, making him of less worth than Ace, who equals probable death in this cycle. There's just no benefit to keeping Folca alive over Ace here. | ||
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On November 04 2008 10:36 Empyrean wrote: @MTF, Yes there is, and it's the possibility of him being able to use his powers again if some paramedics protect him. Mafia have the dilemma of how many hits to put on him and whether or not to use a suicide bomber on him, because they don't know what the paramedics are going to do. It's possible that none of them protect him, and mafia waste 3 hits on him, or even better, a suicide bomber, because they expect the paramedics to save him. So if they know this, they could use only one hit on him, knowing that paramedics might not save him. But then again, the paramedics might, so they just wasted a hit. See where I'm going with this? Yeah, this argument keeps being repeated. But the main problem I have with it is that there is equal opportunity for the same to happen to Ace if we lynch Folca and he turns up red. If Folca is red, then mafia has to decide whether or not to risk hitting Ace without knowing what sort of medic protection he will/will not get, same as with Folca. Both, if innocent, may absord hits the following night. In addition to this, Ace is not guaranteed to be under fire in the case that Folca turns up red, because mafia might reserve hits for others so that town has to decide whether or not to lynch Ace tomorrow or keep him alive. Folca will not get the same luxury, regardless. So, the question here is not whether or not hits will be used on whoever doesn't get lynched, but rather who we believe is more likely to be red and, if we are right, who would more likely live into the following day. The answer to the former can go either way, but the answer to the latter lies with Ace, not Folca. | ||
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Let this be a note to all the other detectives and Jacks out there: DON'T REVEAL YOUR ROLE WITHOUT EVIDENCE Caps and bolding may be a little overboard, but I cannot stress the importance of this, and how big of a mistake Folca made. Yeah, we're getting Ace on our next lynching, but if Folca had kept quiet then nobody would have had reason to suspect him and he could've built up a solid case against Ace + other people through other checks and clues. In short, don't become a martyr without good reason and sufficient evidence. | ||
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On November 05 2008 01:03 Empyrean wrote: Honestly, I think vigis should definitely target Ace, as he's a sure mafia. We don't need to waste 48 hours of discussion on him for lynching...instead, we should wait for night clues, use those 48 hours to do analysis and then lynch someone new. My suggestion for vigis is to kill Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius. I also suspect BloodyCobbler, but that may be just me. I agree with the vigikilling of Ace instead of wasting our period of discussion during the lynching period on him. I don't agree with exposing all three vigilantes (assuming they could even spread out their hits as uncoordinated units) to clue analysis by the mafia at the very beginning, however. Nor do I agree with targeting decaf or MidnightGladius just yet. Yeah, they both have clues that could point to them on the first day, and their behavior has been a little suspect, but I don't feel comfortable at all with hitting them based off of clues this early. | ||
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On November 06 2008 17:43 clazziquai wrote: Oh true, I totally forgot the possibility of him being veteran. I don't find a reason for Plexa to NOT have gotten hit if he is not mafia. These are the scenarios: 1. Mafia - obviously mafia can't lynch fellow mafiosos  2. Veteran - Probably took a hit tonight 3. Protected by medic Anyways, who's willing to do clue analysis? I have to study for an exam atm. =.= I'm doing it at the moment, but it really is a pain in the ass with all these adjectives. T_T I'm about halfway done with listing possible suspects in cross-reference to an overall view on each paragraphs tone/traits. | ||
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Anonymous: + Show Spoiler [Original Quote] + Audaciously anticipating accessible attempts, an anonymous assumed a angle. As Empyrean advanced around adversely, his advantage abated. As abruptly as Empyrean agitated, an anonymous accelerated. Aroused, an anonymous attacked actively accusing an abrasion abhorrent and animating. Anemic and asthmatic Empyrean assuredly after all'ed. + Show Spoiler + Seems to be someone quick moving and reactive. Perhaps medical related people should be under scrutiny, too, as per the end result. Man: + Show Spoiler [Original Quote] + Marked man maneuvered muted into mysterious mien. Alventenie mindlessly massaged as man made most merrily memories the milestone materializing. Mediating machete with misfit, man murderously mutilated Alventenie monstrously. Murdered and massacred, Alventenie mangled the mat. + Show Spoiler + Someone concealed, as related by such words as "muted", "mysterious", and the seemingly innocent nature of Man precluding the "[murderous] mutilation". Certainly a violent person, and perhaps someone with ties to mythical beasts/monsters, due to the description "monstrously". Individual: + Show Spoiler [Original Quote] + Indifference innovated the ingenious individual to invent initiative. Instinctively individual intervened impetuously in Caller, inflicting insult and injury. Irrationally irritated, Caller insisted in improvement. Insulted, individual interpreted it as an insurrection and inflated Caller into inextricable. + Show Spoiler + Shows an intellectual or prideful leaning, in which Individual is at first indifferent until Caller disagrees with him, at which point Caller is murdered in some complex way. Look for vanity. Neighbor: + Show Spoiler [Original Quote] + Nervously Fishball nudged nearly to navigator. Nefarious neighbor non-belligerently narrowed nukes nearer. Nastily needling nuggets, nefarious neighbor naturally newbied Fishball. Nevermore. + Show Spoiler + I'd like to take a moment to say that "non-belligerently narrowed nukes nearer" is positively fun to read. :p As for the analysis, this one is the hardest to call. "Nefarious" itself just means someone openly against the town/evil, and the only person that comes to mind for that right now is Ace. Perhaps a sea or "The Raven" theme is applicable. Possible connections to the general tones: (Bolded names are those I feel are potentially strong as suspects. In the case that I didn't have a personally strong suspect, I bolded a single one in the paragraph that I thought was the strongest of those I presented.) Anonymous: + Show Spoiler + imDerek: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Very weak connection in medical terms, having "errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr" in his quote, which may be construed as ER. It should be noted, though, that nothing in his profile lends itself much to clue making. XCetron: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Cetron is the last name of one Dr. Martin Cetron, direction of a division of the CDC. Again, a weak connection to the medical end of Anonymous. Falcynn: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Blurring the name into "falcon" you get a very agile, quick bird. Mandalor: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: The Mandalorians are a warrior race from the Star Wars universe. Very loose connection to the speed/reactive way Anonymous acted. G.s)Naruto: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Naruto is a ninja, and ninjas are fast! Yeah, I know. Man: + Show Spoiler + fusionsdf: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Weak connection using the bottom paragraph in his profile quote, which tells a story of quiet kid going on to some sort of conflict. No real evidence of violence, however. Chezinu: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Weak connection with his profile quote. Inhuman entity, whose intentions and past are unknown, yet suspected to be evil in some way. Mynock: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Take a look at this page. They are described as a parasite, which is certainly a hidden entity, that could cause sudden "catastrophic failure" if not caught in time. (in other words, death) Adding to this, they are a creature, which goes along with the "monstrously" in Man's paragraph. ShadowDrgn: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Shadow = Hidden, Dragon = violent creature. It is clean, simple, and goes pretty well with the analysis. I could bold this, but I feel like Mynock is a much stronger fit due to its better complexity. Falcynn: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Mostly just putting this out there for humor value. The bunny, a creature normally viewed as gentle, suddenly starts moshing violently! I thought it was fun and even a little apt, though I seriously doubt it's correct. :p Individual: + Show Spoiler + Yogurt: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Essentially regard this as filler, since I felt the need to populate this list with at least one person. States that he's "real yogurt" instead "...that shitty drinkable kind." Pride and vanity! We have a mafia for sure, people.  KH1031: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Profile quote is on a subject of national pride, and could potentially be a touchy one if disagreed with, causing a sudden conflict. FakeSteve: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: This begins and ends with one fact: He has his own fanclub. This provides a potential backdrop for vanity, though I don't think this is a strong connection. Neighbor: + Show Spoiler + Clazziquai: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Very questionable tie-in to a "navigator" theme from his quote "#1 Sea.Really Fan". Not at all strong. JeeJee: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: His quote: "It brings tears of joy to my eyes to see the tears of angst in theirs." Pretty indicative of a maligned viewpoint towards a group. goldenkrnboi: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Questionable connection through his quote: "Dear Light, please die. Hate, GKB." Light could be interpreted as the "good" side, and telling it to die is pretty evil. :p Falcynn: + Show Spoiler + Reasoning: Very questionable connection train between Falcynn -> Falcon -> Bird -> Raven. Alright, that's it for tonight. It's nearing 3:30am here and I've been up for about 22 of the past 24 hours. Take a look and see what you guys think. I don't know that I've pinned anybody yet, but there are reasonably strong connections in there. I'll check todays clues against the first days tomorrow, see if I can't strengthen any. Night, all. | ||
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A) You get a lot of suspects that you have nothing else on. B) You get a one or two suspects that you have nothing else on. Either way makes absolutely no sense, as it's either too easy or too hard to connect today to anybody. It's a waste of a clue opportunity. And to refute your comment on my own analysis, each of those paragraphs, despite the abundance of adjectives, has a followable theme. (with the exception of the Neighbor, which is all over the place) That's what I used to map out my clues, not taking random words from the paragraphs. As for yours, BC: I'm glad you're thinking more abstractly, but the entire Day post cannot be dedicated to just one mafia, and thus cannot be a single centralized idea. Edit: This is not to say that the alliteration is neccessarily something to be ignored, merely that it cannot be our only clue. | ||
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On November 07 2008 02:58 Mynock wrote: That is why you need cross-referencing, and not just going off of one day's worth of clues, be it alliteration or the words themselves. Which is what I'm working on at present. But, your own solution to the matter still makes no logical sense given Chuiu's past and the presumed aptitude of the town. | ||
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On November 07 2008 03:12 Mynock wrote: It does make sense, because Chuiu never wrote in alliteration before. There is also something else that you seem to miss, namely that these sentences don't even make sense. There are certain "odd words out" in there, that don't belong in at all, like: "actively accusing an abrasion abhorrent and animating" - this makes no sense whatsoever. Same with "as man made most merrily memories the milestone materializing." Or "inflated Caller into inextricable." And both "Nastily needling nuggets" as well as "narrowed nukes nearer" don't really make any sense either. The rest of the clues can be transcribed and interpreted as basic actions, like "moves closer, moved away, attacked, defended, died, etc...", but unless I really missed something, the ones I quoted make no sense to me whatsoever, and thus stand out oddly. "actively accusing an abrasion abhorrent and animating" Set into motion, Anonymous attacked, actively accusing Empyrean of a light wound that Man finds loathsome/insulting and moves him into action. (being the death of Empyrean) "as man made most merrily memories the milestone materializing" Alventenie mindlessly massaged as Man made idle conversation about pleasant times in the past, during which time the milestone (a reference to a changing point, which is right before Alventenie dies) appears. "inflated Caller into inextricable" Insulted, Individual saw Caller's criticism as open revolt and [killed Caller*] in an impossibly complex way. *the inflated is literally the only thing that doesn't make sense in this sentence "Nastily needling nuggets" With mean intent, Neighbor needled (to pierce with objects) Fishball with a small lump of something. "narrowed nukes nearer" The evil-minded Neighbor, ill-intent in mind, focused his weapon closer to Fishball. It's all there, in the words. Just not spelled out so clearly. Also, I never said that the alliteration means nothing. Just that it would be faulty logic to think it has anything to do with the letters of anyone's names. | ||
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