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Ladies and gentlemen of the class of Newbie 24,
I haven't done this replacement thing before so I'll be trying to get the hang of it quickly. From what I can see in the thread (I have been reading but not analyzing since the game began) there was a great amount of suspicion regarding my predecessor that I might need to alleviate.
I'll be working on my first analysis/case post for a while, but in the mean time please try to keep in mind that the inactivity of Ochrow (and the previously mentioned TL temp ban) was not alignment indicative. I have a couple of filters I am currently interested in. Posting now just so you know I'm here.
Some quick notes before I move forward: >Newbie 21 I was veteran, died to D1 lynch because I wasn't there to defend/claim >Newbie 22 I was vanilla, died to NK night 3 or 4 >Normal Mini hosted by GMarshal starts tomorrow and I've been signed up for that for a while. >Now I am here as a replacement in 24.
EBHTDP: Hello Darth!
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On August 19 2012 07:01 thrawn2112 wrote:Z-boson (or anyone else) could you explain to me in greater detail what ochrow's lie was? You said it was in his aug 17 5:54 post. I haven't seen anything that qualifies as a lie but if there is a lie, I'd like to know because I think if someone is caught in a lie they should be lynched. I'm going to go through that post and bold anything that seems weird. Ochrow's post + Show Spoiler +On August 17 2012 05:54 Ochrow wrote:On Archrun: Well for starters I am going to go ahead and ##Unvote. For while I'm still suspicious of Archrun for reasons very similar to those posted above, he was very lurky at a time that I didn't feel like I had any good scum reads (yes shady that means I didn't agree with your witch hunts but that doesn't make me scum. . . ) and once he finally stopped lurking I didn't feel his post carried much weight and so I felt that it was just a filler post pointing out some random person to make him seem less suspicious, I don't feel I have enough to vote him at the moment. Now before people start saying that I am flip flopping and that is scum behavior or whatever that argument is I would just like to point out my reasoning for voting Arch because it is somewhat separate from my reasoning for suspecting him. The reason I went and changed my FoS to a Vote was because I really had no idea how much time we had left, I unfortunately have no perception of the passage of time so I thought that the game had already been going on for long enough that the end might come while I was asleep which it almost did as I only just woke up. And so I wanted to make sure I voted as required. On shady: At the moment I can't be sure if Shady is scum or just crazy aggressive townie though at the moment I am leaning slightly towards townie for the same reasoning I used earlier in the game: Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote: My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. However I do feel that his aggressiveness has progressed to a point where it is almost damaging. The case that he laid down on Thrawn and I was not much different from his original argument against Solar, it was based off of little evidence (oh they both posted at the same time and the second guy read the first ones post and had insider information because he restated stuff that Ochrow had said in a PUBLIC forum) and Shady attacked it with a witch hunt mentality. It seems that Shady is like a shark waiting to smell blood and as soon as he does he just attacks immediately, at least that is the way it seems to me. But nonetheless I still don't feel that this is necessarily scum play, just bad play, but if we don't find any really solid scum (I am not currently sold on any of the reads as I will explain below) I can see him as a potentially good lynch. On Thrawn: I really can't get a read on Thrawn. To be honest when I first read Shady's post I almost instantly began to feel that Thrawn was scum but after reading his defense I do not think that he is. But I will say that I find him a bit too sheepish. It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded, so I feel that this is something we need to look out for because it does feel somewhat scummy. On the case against Thrawn and I: I feel like once again Shady is reading too much into things. As far as the combined case claiming that we are both scum and are working together goes it is based almost entirely off of the timing of our post and the fact that Thrawn copied what I said. However, saying that we are obviously working together makes no sense when it is based purely off of the fact that the second person, in this case Thrawn, merely rewords a public post that I made. I can understand why you would be a bit suspicious, but by your logic one scum could just go around copying and rewording the posts of every person in the game and would therefore have to be in secret contact with every single one of them. The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them. As for my fair and balanced posts or however it was that Shady described them, I simply have not been able to divine that much from what most people are saying, though I will admit to being a timid poster. But at the moment I don't feel I have solid reads on pretty much anyone and so the result of that is I try not to alienate people, though I understand why Shady would be suspicious of that because his goal seems to be to piss off everybody and alienate them all. On YourHarry: As far as the stuff from early on goes I believe his explanation in that he had a mason misread and I think that was it, and as I said before while he was posting very short messages he really didn't appear to have much to say outside of those short messages, but going by his posting history it looks like as soon as he started to get actual reads he began to post them. I feel that his swingyness is suspicious and that his posts haven't been great, particularly the case against GK, but I don't really get a scum read from him. On JHuyt: At the moment he and Golbat are on the top of the Lurker List but I don't have much more than that. However, I don't feel that Archrun's case against him has any merit in light of what Solar has said about his history, and I felt the same way before anyways. On Golbat: I can't really get much of a read because he does only have two posts and even in those two posts he doesn't really do much. He has a one line accusation of thrawn and a few really short reads on people that have been pointed out as big suspects but it is so little that I can't really pull much from it but I don't think he is scum but if he only does two posts a day then I'm tempted to lynch just to narrow things down. So just to wrap it up my top choices for lynches would be Arch, Golbat, and Shady in that order. But I do not feel strongly about the Shady lynch at all, I just think that if he keeps up his witch hunt mentality it could be damaging. So primarily I feel we should lynch Arch or Golbat, Arch for my earlier reasoning and pretty much the same stuff that Stutters said and Golbat for being a lurker. The first bold edit is an odd thing to say as it sounds like he is already trying to preempt counter arguments, but I think a town player could have done it. The only weird thing about it is its close proximity to the 2nd bold edit, which I honestly have no idea what to make of on it's own. But seeing as how they are two strange comments close to each other and regarding the same topic, it makes me a little suspicious that they are excuses (scum statements) rather than reasons (town statements.) The third bold edit when he's talking about me: "It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded." This is just not true. Either ochrow is misrepresenting me, or he didn't read the thread. He made this statement after I voted for shady, and that was anything but a bandwagon vote. In fact a lot of people have described it as an OMGUS vote. I can't see how anyone could say I've been bandwagoning if they've read my reasons for voting. On the next bold edit: ("The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them.") The context for this was defending the accusation that he and I were sharing a qt. He says that "Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post." To me this seems like a bad argument and possibly him trying to deflect everyone onto my case. To say "the fact of the matter" is a very strongly and clearly worded statement that expresses that whatever claim comes next is undeniable truth. Why would ochrow's defense of the "thrawn/ochrow share a qt" claim be him saying that the only possible explanation is that I piggybacked onto his claim? This strikes me as a suspicious defense. I was reading YH's filter and then I followed a thought and ended up at this quoted post that pretty much summarized some general concerns with Ochraw. Thrawn has also stated that he will vote for me depending upon what I say. So I want to go back to this for a moment and try to see what Thrawn is seeing.
The first part of the post written by Ochrow does seem a CYA move, that much I can agree on. I don't see it as alignment indicative but I agree that when taken in context with other clues it could point towards a scum alignment. I know in my past game my inactivity due to RL concerns was interpreted as scummy and I had to do a lot of talking to defend myself from being high up on the lynch list. Ochrow's post seems to preempt that, which of course is sort of frowned upon in this game but we are people and people have stuff to do. The general feeling I get from this entire course of argument is that both Ochrow and Thrawn were trying to distance themselves from each other.
Knowing my own alignment and Thawn's vig claim leads me to the following conclusion regarding the face off with Ochraw: Two misguided townies staring each other down is my best assessment of this situation at the moment. The coincidental post timing was just that: a coincidence.
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Goodkarma is at the top of my suspects list right now.
+ Show Spoiler [the most ridiculous thing ever] +On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote:-snip- Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote: Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum. Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason . ##Vote: thrawn2112And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow##FoS: YourHarryI'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. I'm just trying to wrap my head around this post, so bear with me.
GK is convinced that Thrawn and Ochrow (now me) are of the same alignment. If we're not mason buddies, then we're scum together, and one of those scums is a vigilante? Is anyone else seeing how this is the most ridiculous claim ever? If we are backing up to question ourselves: "Is Thrawn actually a vigilante?" then I have something to say regarding that. It's a lot easier to prove you're a vigilante if you make a believable breadcrumb that when revealed shows you haven't lied, but we're in a pickle as far as that's concerned because all we seem to have is a weak breadcrumb and Thrawn's word that he is a vig and spent his one shot last night.
On top of that, GK is CERTAIN of my alignment as scum. It seems that he knows more about me than I do, and I suggest everyone take a good hard look at GK today and see if you can agree that he's being pretty scummy here.
##VOTE: goodkarma
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On August 20 2012 00:17 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 00:00 Obvious.660 wrote:Goodkarma is at the top of my suspects list right now. + Show Spoiler [the most ridiculous thing ever] +On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote:-snip- Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote: Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum. Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason . ##Vote: thrawn2112And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow##FoS: YourHarryI'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. I'm just trying to wrap my head around this post, so bear with me. GK is convinced that Thrawn and Ochrow (now me) are of the same alignment. If we're not mason buddies, then we're scum together, and one of those scums is a vigilante? Is anyone else seeing how this is the most ridiculous claim ever? If we are backing up to question ourselves: "Is Thrawn actually a vigilante?" then I have something to say regarding that. It's a lot easier to prove you're a vigilante if you make a believable breadcrumb that when revealed shows you haven't lied, but we're in a pickle as far as that's concerned because all we seem to have is a weak breadcrumb and Thrawn's word that he is a vig and spent his one shot last night. On top of that, GK is CERTAIN of my alignment as scum. It seems that he knows more about me than I do, and I suggest everyone take a good hard look at GK today and see if you can agree that he's being pretty scummy here. ##VOTE: goodkarma Are you saying that goodkarma thought that I was a vig and that I was scum? I didn't get that from gk's post. Actually gk seemed to completely distrust my vig claim. I don't think I understand your argument...could you explain it again? The short answer, since I have to leave for a few hours, is: What possible motivation is there for putting two people I am confident are town on the same list and claiming with absolute certainty that they are all scum. The only answer is: it comes from someone who knows their alignments. Scum motivation.
Notice how a mislynch on me can be cast aside as "he was a lurker anyway" among the other points brought up against Ochrow. Notice how a mislynch on you can be cast aside as "his vig claim wasn't strong enough and his breadcrumb was weak so we had no reason to believe him anyway". Goodkarma has a history of policy talk that really gets the town no where, followed up by going after lurkers.
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Holy shit, I've been in the game for 7 hours and have 3 posts and am already getting called out for lurking. You guys are doing an incredible job at that policy shit.
I'm just gonna get real with you for a minute, sons. The rest of the you seem to think that killing off the closest thing you have to a confirmed town member (Thrawn) is a good idea and are still holding what I can tell you was simply piss-poor town play from Ochrow against me, the vanilla manilla town member with no super powers. One town lynch today, one town lynch tomorrow, and scum are laughing all the way to the bank.
+ Show Spoiler [in which gk holds a grudge] +On August 20 2012 07:03 goodkarma wrote:@SolarSail: Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 06:44 Solarsail wrote: My current vote, thrawn. He did a very poor job of defending himself initially with the WIFOM and the claim (which if real is both highly convenient and misplaced), but then he's improved by responding to more accusations. I know 'lack of reading' is a general accusation against him but D1 I thought he was responding quite well, in full and with evidence, to all questions asked. So I would say it's just a D2 behaviour to be missing things a little.
I agree with much of gk's posting minus the initial shared QT accusation because that is unlikely to have produced the coincidental posts with the same agenda. The lying to us, lurking, nonaggression and general avoidance of Ochrow/Obvious stands out a lot more (oh and the OMGUS vote) and YH has demonstrated some serious read errors and flip flops if he is indeed town. So my case against Thrawn is mostly by association with YH and Ochrow than directly. I will keep my vote on him because it is a combined one from gk's case and thrawn's individual behaviour. However /unlike/ GK I will not switch around as people's defences go up and down with each post. I will be around at the deadline but I don't plan to switch.
The lurkers simply have not posted enough to make any case as strong as vs Thrawn or vs Obvious so I can't justify voting for them instead of those two. This is possibly by design; if so they are lucky that D1 was intense and D2 was focused on a single case to avoid attention.
So, in other words, you're saying that Thrawn looks scummy by association with Obvious and YourHarry? I've already mentioned this before, but you should vote your strongest scum read. Voting because of association, when none of the suspects have actually flipped, can be dangerous. I've already described how this could cause bias, and it is one of the reasons for switching my vote. Ochrow just outright is a stronger scum read than Thrawn for me right now. I don't follow your logic when you say you won't switch your vote, when it seems you already have a stronger scum read on Ochrow/Obvious than on Thrawn. If your read is solely based off "association," then I would urge you to reconsider your vote. And regarding my vote switch, I'm not following a policy of "present your defense and I won't vote for you." But the fact that Ochrow, and now Obvious, have not presented a defense of any kind to the case points against him gives me a stronger scum read on him. His choice to afk from thread until after the vote tells me he's trying to buy enough time to survive today's lynch and make it to the next day, which is scum-motivated behavior. GK, your points against Obvious are exactly what? The only valid thing you said against me was that I disappeared from the thread for a while. You're so engrossed in your delusion that Ochrow was scum that you're transferring it to me and on the basis of what, exactly? I'd love to try to respond to those allegations but I'm not Ochrow so you present to me an impossible challenge bordering on telepathy. How can I know what Ochrow's long game was when I'm not allowed to contact him? There's no QT to refer to, I'm all by my lonesome here and I can sort of see why maybe his ban could have been on purpose since this game is full of delusional people.
How about you all take a step back and reboot, have a reality check and maybe figure out why it is that the town is hell-bent on destroying itself and who the people behind it are.
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On August 20 2012 07:32 goodkarma wrote: @Obvious,
I'm glad to see you're back.
You're right in that you can't see Ochrow's game plan via telepathy. But you should still be able to help us see Ochrow's motivations from a town perspective (if you indeed are town). What's more, you haven't weighed in on either Thrawn or YourHarry, who are both under heavy suspicion and one of whom (Thrawn) is currently set to be lynched.
It may seem unfair to be expected, as a replacement, to pick up exactly where your predecessor left off, but this is what I'm expecting of you nonetheless. Even after reading a few pages of case posts against the two top lynch candidates you should have some kind of read on them. So please share your impressions with us.
And please share what you think Ochrow's motivations were for his play. Why would you need me to tell you what Ochrow's perspective is, as town? Are you not town enough to figure it out yourself? He has a one page filter and all of his experience with Mafia was in-person games. That should get you started.
Hey guys, meet scum #2:
On August 20 2012 07:49 Solarsail wrote: @Z-boson, Obvious
I see we've ditched logic in favour of the impassioned rant.
Obvious, that is the worst deliberate post in this thread. You still didn't respond to the thrawn case, or any ongoing case except yourself. No one is expecting you to defend Ochrow's every word, you're responding to a threat that doesn't exist and you're not even up for lynch so I can't call it desperation.
You claimed town. Why would you even do that. You're actually blaming Ochrow ('maybe he banned himself'). However those bad posts form part of your record, so with the information you have you can do a LOT more than simply throw your hands up. You mentioned a QT to deny it. Everyone had given up on QT based speculation, why would you bring it back in? You continued to OMGUS attack goodkarma, when he has been asking only for the kind of info everyone needs from you as a replacement player.
That's a lot of fluffy information there there, matey.
I am not expected to defend all the arguments against Ochrow but I'm expected to defend myself on behalf of Ochrow. Okay then. The only thing worth mentioning that he did was vote for Archrun. No real scum reads so he went with a vote on a lurker. Yeah, Ochrow played a very scummy town. You have him nailed down. Too bad I'm not Ochrow. If you really, truly need to find out that I am telling the truth how about you NK me tonight and high five your scum buddies tomorrow.
See, that's the thing about this game. It's not all just educated guessing. Some of it is intuition, and I seem to be more in tune with mine and willing to go with it than you are with yours. The town is being led by the nose.
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On August 20 2012 08:01 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 07:21 Obvious.660 wrote:Holy shit, I've been in the game for 7 hours and have 3 posts and am already getting called out for lurking. You guys are doing an incredible job at that policy shit. I'm just gonna get real with you for a minute, sons. The rest of the you seem to think that killing off the closest thing you have to a confirmed town member (Thrawn) is a good idea and are still holding what I can tell you was simply piss-poor town play from Ochrow against me, the vanilla manilla town member with no super powers. One town lynch today, one town lynch tomorrow, and scum are laughing all the way to the bank. + Show Spoiler [in which gk holds a grudge] +On August 20 2012 07:03 goodkarma wrote:@SolarSail: Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 06:44 Solarsail wrote: My current vote, thrawn. He did a very poor job of defending himself initially with the WIFOM and the claim (which if real is both highly convenient and misplaced), but then he's improved by responding to more accusations. I know 'lack of reading' is a general accusation against him but D1 I thought he was responding quite well, in full and with evidence, to all questions asked. So I would say it's just a D2 behaviour to be missing things a little.
I agree with much of gk's posting minus the initial shared QT accusation because that is unlikely to have produced the coincidental posts with the same agenda. The lying to us, lurking, nonaggression and general avoidance of Ochrow/Obvious stands out a lot more (oh and the OMGUS vote) and YH has demonstrated some serious read errors and flip flops if he is indeed town. So my case against Thrawn is mostly by association with YH and Ochrow than directly. I will keep my vote on him because it is a combined one from gk's case and thrawn's individual behaviour. However /unlike/ GK I will not switch around as people's defences go up and down with each post. I will be around at the deadline but I don't plan to switch.
The lurkers simply have not posted enough to make any case as strong as vs Thrawn or vs Obvious so I can't justify voting for them instead of those two. This is possibly by design; if so they are lucky that D1 was intense and D2 was focused on a single case to avoid attention.
So, in other words, you're saying that Thrawn looks scummy by association with Obvious and YourHarry? I've already mentioned this before, but you should vote your strongest scum read. Voting because of association, when none of the suspects have actually flipped, can be dangerous. I've already described how this could cause bias, and it is one of the reasons for switching my vote. Ochrow just outright is a stronger scum read than Thrawn for me right now. I don't follow your logic when you say you won't switch your vote, when it seems you already have a stronger scum read on Ochrow/Obvious than on Thrawn. If your read is solely based off "association," then I would urge you to reconsider your vote. And regarding my vote switch, I'm not following a policy of "present your defense and I won't vote for you." But the fact that Ochrow, and now Obvious, have not presented a defense of any kind to the case points against him gives me a stronger scum read on him. His choice to afk from thread until after the vote tells me he's trying to buy enough time to survive today's lynch and make it to the next day, which is scum-motivated behavior. GK, your points against Obvious are exactly what? The only valid thing you said against me was that I disappeared from the thread for a while. You're so engrossed in your delusion that Ochrow was scum that you're transferring it to me and on the basis of what, exactly? I'd love to try to respond to those allegations but I'm not Ochrow so you present to me an impossible challenge bordering on telepathy. How can I know what Ochrow's long game was when I'm not allowed to contact him? There's no QT to refer to, I'm all by my lonesome here and I can sort of see why maybe his ban could have been on purpose since this game is full of delusional people. How about you all take a step back and reboot, have a reality check and maybe figure out why it is that the town is hell-bent on destroying itself and who the people behind it are. HEHE this is the Obvious I remember <3. However like your predecessor you are defending thrawn and have barely mentioned Your Harry. This is incredibly suspicious as, if you had read the thread and peoples cases against them I don;t see how you could state that Thrawn is the closest thing to confirmed town. Or not mention YH at all. I'm in a rush here, WWE PPV tonight and I'm getting picked up to hang with my cousins. Darth, if you follow the train of thought on your own you will know the truth about me (bolded part).
Yeah, you're right, I don't really know how strong the situation is against Thrawn, but it seems that if it's between YH and Thrawn I will pick Thrawn as a lynch target today. The main reason is: Vig shot target is kind of rediculous. Maybe it wasn't in context of the thread, but I have only spent maybe 1.5-2 active hours with the thread today and will read deeper into everything on the night cycle to give better reads. Sorry I replaced like 10 hours from deadline or whatever it was but I'm out the door.
##UNVOTE ##VOTE: THRAWN
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Thoughts on Golbat, to pass some time here. Stream of consciousness as I read through his filter.
Regarding his posting bevavior: having been in the same game (XXII) as Golbat that he has referenced where he was lynched D1 as a power role, I can't help but notice that his posting has gone (relatively) from hero to zero. I realize that this is, in part, a tactic through which he is engaging in some self-preservation behavior which isn't totally off the wall crazy. I did similar in my first game and ended up saying a bunch of crap that got me lynched. I think the town needs the old Golbat right now though. Compare this to YourHarry whose posting habits have carried on from game to game. It just seems like you went from one extreme to the other and it honestly doesn't suit us in terms of getting a better read on you, please try to get into the fray today. If you were posting like you did in XXII I would have seen you for town (saying whatever comes to your mind) and it can't really hurt at this stage of the game to pick it up. Even YourHarry has somehow survived this long with his antics, but that's how I know YH. It would do a lot, at least for me, to see you as town if you would be a bit more aggressive and active.
Golbat, you've been on Thrawn's case the entire game. Your first case post against him: + Show Spoiler [golbat analysis pt1] +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote: YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote: As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote: Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is. I particularly like this last part here. It's like you never even went back and revisited the idea after his Vig claim. Even if you didn't trust his Vig claim 100%, doesn't it make sense that he would want to know who other people thought would make for good vig kill targets? It may not have been the best way to go about getting that information, but in the context of his claim it makes sense to come back to it. Alas, Thrawn's claim didn't resonate with you, and I'm somewhat surprised by that given your history in XXII where you too were a Vig and without a clear target. Of course Thrawn did a better job staying alive to execute it, but you were ironically putting him in a similar situation. The over-aggressive Shady Sands was a more overwhelming factor for D1 here, so it's not completely in Thrawn's hands that he made it through the day. In my eyes this is significant evidence that you may not be thinking like us.
You also seem fairly hell-bent on getting YH voted off the island next, so I'm very interested in reading a solid, cohesive case from you on him. Let's say, during the night phase?
Let's see, who else on the list do I feel like reading up on a bit...
Jhuyt... well, let's see here. Just from a cursory glance I see that your D1 vote was a successful mislynch of Shady Sands. You almost had your way with a D2 lynch as well.
+ Show Spoiler [ I spy vintage YourHarry] +On August 20 2012 00:36 Jhuyt wrote:ok, I found something in Harry's filter, it isn't much but I thought it was kind of interesting. Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 12:48 YourHarry wrote: I will explain later, or maybe it will sort itself out.
FOS Following people still have not posted:
Golbat Jhuyt Z-BosoN Ochrow
In this post he was very clear with whom had not yet posted, so I assume he made the effort to look through the filters and found us. later on he says this: Show nested quote +As to why I did not call out Ochrow: I was not even aware of it. How many times did I call lurkers out - I did not make sure that I got every single lurkers out. In fact, I thought in one of the list, I copied lurker list provided by previous poster and eliminated names who posted since then. I simply missed him for some reason... Here he claims that he did not try to find everybody, so he lied, or forgot about it, I'd say he lied. This is the problem with YourHarry, he makes posts that consist of nothing and he makes claims he immediatly retract. It doesn't matter if you're scum or town, this is just bad play on all parts and super anti-town. For this I'm going to vote for YourHarry ##Vote: YourHarry
One of the quietest players in the game is calling out the some of the loudest players in the game. I'm plainly shocked that 1 page filter guy has lived this long. I guess that's how it works when you vote for the easy targets.
YourHarry... Man you do kinda have my head in a spin here.
You claim that Archrun is setting us up for a dual mislynch:
On August 17 2012 08:55 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +Archrun said: Currently, I feel that if Shady is lynched and is town then we should lynch Thrawn, Likewise, if Thrawn is lynch then we should lynch Shady. If one of them is scum then the other is town. I doubt any busing is occurring because if they were on a team they could of just focus me rather than fight among each other. With that I am going to keep my vote but if Thrawn flips townie Shady is becomes my number one suspect. You guys don't think Archrun is trying to benefit from the mislynch. If Thrawn flips town, he is basically trying to secure the Shady lynch. You may argue that town Archrun actually believes that exactly one of Trhawn or Shady is scum, but I have hard time accepting this because he leaves out one possibility that they are both town. We get this post that explains your motivations:
On August 17 2012 14:13 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Shady lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. Well, all three of these guys are dead, and I still think the jury is out on Golbat since he's been scared to post or whatever. Either you told us your scum plan (hardly believable) or you're just one of the many who shared suspicions of these people and are being set up for a mislynch (more believable). Why do I classify these in terms of believability? Because we're in N2 and not a single red flip has happened. Feels like expert scum play in this game, and weak town play (myself included, I know I'm at the bottom of the list when it comes to player skill in this game). Very few people other than me and YH (that I can remember) were really outspoken against people who were not obvious lynch candidates.
End of stream of consciousness for now. Bed time or something like it.
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Been out of the house for a few hours. Really surprised at the Jhuyt lynch actually... more like scum did a favor for us than anything at this point.
First thing I have to say is that I was roleblocked last night. That makes two of us who were roleblocked tonight between myself and DP.
I'm definitely in agreement on a Golbat lynch at this point. We'll start with this general contradiction of himself, or more accurately him not matching the portrait of townie traits he is painting:
On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote: Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can.
On August 18 2012 17:48 Golbat wrote: I also really hope that some more of the lurkers start posting. Z-Boson, Ochrow, Jhuyt have yet to post today to my knowledge. On August 18 2012 17:54 Golbat wrote: EBWOP: Only Ochrow hasn't posted today. My apologies. Z-Boson posted right after the flip, so that just barely counts. Solar and Jhyut have posted. This is followed up by an absurdly long period of time without any contribution in the past couple of days and his last (very ironic) post:On August 19 2012 07:30 Golbat wrote: You could probably assume that I didn't pay close attention to the first 24hours of the game. Because I didn't. I had forgotten I even signed up until like halfway through Day1.
Why are YOU trying to make it sound like I have no clue what's going on at all? I know exactly what to make of that.
Further evidence he is barely paying attention to the thread even when he is here:On August 18 2012 10:36 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 09:27 Golbat wrote: I still maintain my case on thrawn. He and shady are my two biggest scum reads at the moment. I'll have to re read GK's case on oochrow, and then OO's filter and then see how I feel about that. But I feel pretty safe right now in voting for Thrawn.
##Vote Thrawn
also, ##FoS YourHarry
His play has been the flippiest and the floppiest. That usually means intentionally sowing confusion in the thread, as people have to follow his logic back and forth to make any sense of what he says. Shit, I totally meant harry. I don't even know why I typed shady.
Quite possibly his most difficult-to-read response to something in the thread that just about begs you to not try to read it more than once because of how he embedded his commentary.
On August 18 2012 16:48 Golbat wrote:The bold is my response, the bold/underline is yourharry's words. Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 16:12 YourHarry wrote:@Darth While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me. After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't. Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out: On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote: @YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum. I see nowhere in that post where I even hint at knowing anything. I simply said that if thrawn flips scum, the guy who is defending him is likely to be scum as well. That guy is you, and you've already been marked out as scummy by several people, including myself. There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady. False. You and Thrawn seem to be suffering from the same inability to acknowledge my posts outlining my reasons for believing thrawn is scum. Possibly a scum tactic to cast suspicion on me? More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. Is this not a legitimate thing for a cornered scum to do? While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat: On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 15:22 goodkarma wrote:@Thrawn: On August 18 2012 15:04 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote:On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote: A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler +(except the sk, if he does exist) . So, there may not even be a vigilante... The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig.And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking. You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can. Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together.
And finally, there was no response to my poke last time so I'll just quote it here to add to the case against him:On August 20 2012 14:08 Obvious.660 wrote:Thoughts on Golbat, to pass some time here. Stream of consciousness as I read through his filter. Regarding his posting bevavior: having been in the same game (XXII) as Golbat that he has referenced where he was lynched D1 as a power role, I can't help but notice that his posting has gone (relatively) from hero to zero. I realize that this is, in part, a tactic through which he is engaging in some self-preservation behavior which isn't totally off the wall crazy. I did similar in my first game and ended up saying a bunch of crap that got me lynched. I think the town needs the old Golbat right now though. Compare this to YourHarry whose posting habits have carried on from game to game. It just seems like you went from one extreme to the other and it honestly doesn't suit us in terms of getting a better read on you, please try to get into the fray today. If you were posting like you did in XXII I would have seen you for town (saying whatever comes to your mind) and it can't really hurt at this stage of the game to pick it up. Even YourHarry has somehow survived this long with his antics, but that's how I know YH. It would do a lot, at least for me, to see you as town if you would be a bit more aggressive and active. Golbat, you've been on Thrawn's case the entire game. Your first case post against him: + Show Spoiler [golbat analysis pt1] +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote: YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote: As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote: Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is. I particularly like this last part here. It's like you never even went back and revisited the idea after his Vig claim. Even if you didn't trust his Vig claim 100%, doesn't it make sense that he would want to know who other people thought would make for good vig kill targets? It may not have been the best way to go about getting that information, but in the context of his claim it makes sense to come back to it. Alas, Thrawn's claim didn't resonate with you, and I'm somewhat surprised by that given your history in XXII where you too were a Vig and without a clear target. Of course Thrawn did a better job staying alive to execute it, but you were ironically putting him in a similar situation. The over-aggressive Shady Sands was a more overwhelming factor for D1 here, so it's not completely in Thrawn's hands that he made it through the day. In my eyes this is significant evidence that you may not be thinking like us. You also seem fairly hell-bent on getting YH voted off the island next, so I'm very interested in reading a solid, cohesive case from you on him. Let's say, during the night phase? Never did get that night post from him...
Summary: My read is that Golbat is scum, intentionally lurking and posting in a manner that deflects any real attention from being on him when there are more active scummy-looking players in the game. The problem with this strategy is that now that we're at a point where lurkers seem to be the best option, he isn't giving us much else to go off of other than that he's still avoiding attention and that is precisely the kind of behavior that will get people in trouble at this stage of the game.
##VOTE: Golbat
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On August 22 2012 10:18 Z-BosoN wrote: @Stutters
I was about ready to start my post when I read yours, so I mostly skimmed over it. I've read it though, and thank you for contributing. But my point about analyzing his intentions and such still stands, I still think it's useless. I don't think any of his posts have any intentions or any purpose at all other than just being random.
@Obvious
Well, he might just be not visiting this thread anymore, I dunno... whatever his reasons, he's insanely inactive and hopefully will just get modkilled... Means everyone who has a case against him, including myself, should start considering alternate people and working on cases immediately in the event that he's removed.
If Golbat is modkilled, will it be done after 72 hours inactive or just flipped with the lynch today?
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Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order: YourHarry Z-Boson Stutters Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not.
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On August 22 2012 11:30 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2012 11:09 Obvious.660 wrote: Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order: YourHarry Z-Boson Stutters Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not. What is your view on Solar? On the phone right now, just got a call, I'll take a second look after I'm done. Is he one of your suspects or are you confused as to why he didn't make my short list?
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On August 22 2012 11:45 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2012 11:37 Obvious.660 wrote:On August 22 2012 11:30 DarthPunk wrote:On August 22 2012 11:09 Obvious.660 wrote: Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order: YourHarry Z-Boson Stutters Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not. What is your view on Solar? On the phone right now, just got a call, I'll take a second look after I'm done. Is he one of your suspects or are you confused as to why he didn't make my short list? I am about to post a case on him. would like your thoughts. Okay, I'll take a look after this call, promise.
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Solarsail:
First interesting post in a back-and-forth with Shady Sands:On August 15 2012 10:10 Solarsail wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 10:01 Shady Sands wrote:Solarsail, why post this? (edit for clarity)From the previous post from Solarsail /edit) Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. Because I've played one game of Mafia in my life, it was on another forum and that happened. But I forgot that "Newbie" in the title means that everyone is a fucking veteran and doesn't need to be told anything. I have no idea what a good post is, please enlighten me on how I can make completely flawless first posts with zero information. Starting here. What this looks like to me is an antagonizing relationship between Solar and Shady Sands. Going back to the context of the interaction, Shady Sands makes his first read loud and clear that he feels Solar is scummy, and this is a sort of emotional reaction to being targeted right off the bat in your second mafia game ever. Understandable reaction, I am still guilty of this from time to time, even my entrance to this game was characterized as semi-emotional and confusing.
The remainder of that previous post, the first paragraph here:On August 15 2012 09:32 Solarsail wrote: Reading the many guides linked on the library which are incredbly helpful, the most important thing I saw is that the town needs to stay active and stay on point. If we are to lynch anyone it has to be because of real information and evidence, and that has to be readily available from the thread. If we're trying to learn we need a long record to practise analysing.
Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. basically endorses having an active and talkative town. Basically, condoning town play. If I were to have an issue with this, I would say that he's breaking his own town-rule if he's town. Three-page filter and still alive at this stage of the game makes me look to the rest of his filter for quality posts over the quantity.
This is follow by tons of short posts, which goes against my expectations based on his vision of being a town player (again, being active), which are either mocking or taunting, or the word I guess would be trolling? It's a ton of posts and useless to quote them all here. You can see for yourself that all of them up to his "Good morning" post are intentionally inciting and not very useful to us.
Interestingly enough, the end of that post has this small gem which has now planted the seeds of doubt to his alignment:On August 15 2012 20:35 Solarsail wrote:Good morning. + Show Spoiler [snip] + I intend to be civil and not emotional from now on. My posts were very deliberately an attempt to get discussion going and see what people's alignments were, and this was a success in that I want to point out two people. My behaviour was consistently anti-town, so a good town player would be telling me to stop being erratic but not defending me.
So, first I want to discuss Shady Sands. Apart from one-line questioning of me, and the unneeded insistence on filters as has been pointed out, he has done little else and none of his arguments have been reasonable or backed up by evidence. His enduring suspicion of me based on the first post doesn't make sense because it was just the second post and neither town nor mafia would have a motivation to start accusing someone at that point. If it was just to start discussion in itself why would he persist in asserting it for the next eight pages as if it was substantial.
Secondly, the continued defence of me by Thrawn has no basis. I was clearly being anti-town. Some evidence:
"I am still of the opinion that solar's posts are somewhat likely to be emotional overreactions rather than scummy."
"Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar?"
"Most of the discussion right now is about solarsail. I don't think there's anything wrong with this because so far his posts haven't seemed very useful but we have still yet to hear from several players. He could easily be town and just reacting to everyone immediately jumping on his case as soon as the game starts."
"Suspicion of a soft accusation is hardly good evidence that he should be lynched especially when there has been so little discussion so far so I am not sold on your case against him."
There is little reason to defend me so much unless your motivation is to defend someone he knows to be town player for deflection reasons.
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I am unvoting because my original vote was baseless and I want to hear Shady's response before making a serious attempt at voting him.
Unvote
The thread consensus has been that I'm town. Thus if I am mafia I have nothing to gain from changing my playstyle now. Solar had everything to gain from changing his playstyle. Use Shady Sands as an example in the context of this thread. Anyone who was outspoken and posting quick one-liners has been looked at with great scrutiny. In fact, I would say that he has not presented much by way of original ideas to the thread since his posting style changed. His votes/FOSes have been: Shady Sands, Thrawn, YourHarry, Jhuyt, and myself. All of us have had suspicions against us from other players, and as you can see here, there is definitely a pattern of targeting confirmed (by way of lynch/NK) or near-confirmed (in my case, I don't expect you all to believe Ochrow/Obvious is town but for the purposes of this argument since it's coming from me I will use it as fact). YourHarry is currently the only unconfirmed suspicion in this list.
His last post, here:
On August 21 2012 09:30 Solarsail wrote: We're not going to realistically win this game without three good mafia lynches. Being decisive is exactly what is needed, so we need a leader and gk has stepped up. If this devolves into eight lynch candidates we have poor odds of picking the right one even if our accusations of certain behaviours are correct.
So it's really just a question of your read on gk. If you think he's town, vote for Golbat. If you think he's not, vote for GK. If GK and DP are mafia then wp because they've been nothing but active and helpful (and terribly wrong yesterday).
I haven't done nearly enough independent work, and it's hurt me because I've been taken in by bad logic following others, but ultimately it's a lesson learned. I don't even think Golbat is the greatest lynch candidate ever because lurking is a often a null tell but I'm seeing that it's come down to the choice I said. I'd go with Obvious myself but I don't even trust any reads I have after D1 and D2.
##Vote: Golbat
If Golbat is town and dies by modkill tonight, that's another confirmed townie on his list of suspicions. That's a pretty awful track record in terms of hurting town via mislynches, even for a member of the town, which makes me think that perhaps he is indeed scum and knows players' alignments. Suspicious enough for me to feel confident moving my vote off Golbat and onto him.
##UNVOTE ##VOTE: Solarsail
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Do I count as sheeping if I posted my case on him before you posted yours even though you asked? Semi-joking.
Not sure what to make of the Golbat situation but he's voting for Solarsail as well. Hard to speculate as to why, best guess is that it's because it was the most recent case posted. If we lynch correctly today and he's not NK'd hopefully he participates tomorrow.
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Darth, you forgot to vote Solar, if that was your intent after finishing your case.
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May we have an official votecount, please?
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I think it's relevant to point out that Golbat, whom we probably shouldn't expect to show back up, has placed his vote on Solarsail. In the event that Golbat both (1) does not return, and (2) is town, doesn't that essentially mean town either rallies under Solarsail or goes along with the YH vote now that YH is at 4?
What are the implications that a YH vote was so easy? Do you guys have any thoughts about why the easiest guy to vote for (inconsistent behaviors, confusing meta) was the last guy we're voting for? I'm not saying that YH isn't scum. I came into this game with an open mind and an understanding that his play-style is very unique to him, so I didn't hold it against him at first, yet he's still difficult to get a solid read off of (to me) even taking his style into account. I guess I can defer to the wisdom of others when it comes to YH at this stage. I'm fine with either of the leading candidates. YH is a stronger option since it allays any need to decide what his musings allow us to infer and we're left with the more straightforward Solarsail to deal with later if he's still a candidate.
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On August 23 2012 07:24 DarthPunk wrote: ok guys we all need to consolidate onto Your Harry so we are not screwed around by last minute vote changes. I will answer the Z-Boson case if we survive the cycle but at this point we should either be: consolidation onto your harry. Or consolidating onto solar sail. You already have 5. I guess this is calling me out specifically, since I'm the last person other than YourHarry himself.
##UNVOTE ##VOTE: YourHarry
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