EPT/in
I will not be replaced
I Can't Believe it's not Themed MiniMafia
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
/in I will not be replaced | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'm so excited for this game, but I really hope I'm town or this is going to be terrifying xD so many good players | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
success! Knew you'd come round eventually  | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Here is some info on me+ Show Spoiler + I have previously played in NMM XIV, NMM XV, NMM XVII, and NMM XIX. I was VT in each of those 4 games, got shot by mafia in all 4, and proceeded to lose in all 4 >_< This is my first non-newbie game and I really want that first win. Overall I will be fairly active, but I will only be spending significant time on the game between 6PM and 3AM EDT. I work from 10AM - 6PM on weekdays and while I can follow the thread from work, I don't really have time to do analysis or write many posts while I'm working. people I've played with before: s0Lstice, Vivax, Austinmcc, keirathi, miltonkram people I haven't: Mattchew, Risen, gonzaw, marv, dropbear, talismania, strongandbig some policy stuff+ Show Spoiler + Obviously, we should be lynching every day until we have good reason not to. I will push to get my scumreads lynched, but I will prefer any lynch to a No-Lynch. I'm not a big fan of lynching lurkers. Obviously, lurking hurts town, but I don't think lurking is all that alignment-indicative. Seeing as our goal is to lynch scum, I will only give slight preference to lynching the lurker over the active player, everything else being even. I'm not convinced that masons, millers, or roleblockers should claim, but I've never played in a setup quite like this before and I haven't thought much about it. I'll read up on the issue and see if I agree with you guys. @Vivax Sorry, but your psychic powers have failed you. @s0Lstice Haha I was half-expecting that you or miltonkram would point out my hour-late post. I get out of work at 6 and have dinner right afterwards, hence the delay. Have to go now. I'll be back in 2-3 hours. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:17 s0Lstice wrote: sciberbia- welcome to the thread! tell me something about keirathi, since you've played with him briefly. did you find it easy to read him as town? @s0Lstice Keirathi did a really good job making me believe he was town. I was quite biased against him because he replaced my #1 suspect. But he changed my opinion through high-quality & high-quantity scumhunting, confidence, and willingness to challenge other active posters for thread control. If he is town, I expect to get a town-read from him and I expect he'll be quite an asset. I've done a little more thinking about millers/masons/roleblockers and I want to give my opinion. But I don't want this stuff to get in the way of scumhunting so this will probably be the last I say on the subject millers+ Show Spoiler + I think millers should claim right now. If somebody tries to claim miller after there is a guilty on them, I will be especially suspicious of them for not having claimed earlier. masons+ Show Spoiler + I don't think it makes a big difference when masons choose to claim. It's situational, but masons should at the very least breadcrumb their role and mason partner town roleblocker+ Show Spoiler + I don't see why town roleblocker should claim, but it wouldn't be the biggest deal if he did. I agree that roleblocker shouldn't RB unclaimed players without good reason. But I think RB'ing a claimed VT/miller/mason is unlikely to do any harm and can quite possibly do some good if the claim is fake. I'll now be turning my attention towards scumhunting. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote: marv, talismania, anybody active, what do you think about these guys? If you had to kill one of them which one would you choose and why? (if you don't want to kill anyone then say so). gonzaw asked for some thoughts on Risen, strongandbig, and Mattchew. Obviously there is not much to go on yet, but here are my thoughts so far: risen+ Show Spoiler + I am a bit suspicious of risen 1)s0Lstice mentioned risen's conscious change in meta, which could make a lot of sense for someone playing as scum. It's a perfect defense to any meta arguments made against him: he can say he is actively trying to change the way he plays town. 2)Risen's overall tone is amiable and pleasant, which can be indicative of scum trying to be well-liked. I expect a more firm, objective, analytic tone from townies. See these posts: On July 12 2012 07:56 Risen wrote: Welcome to ICBINTMM in which Risen does not post in caps or call anyone an idiot THE ENTIRE GAME. Stay tuned to see if this actually happens...... On July 12 2012 10:38 Risen wrote: It's cool. It's nothing compared to what I handled from igrok my last game. Anywho, I was just pointing out I found it odd you would try and push people onto "lurkers" so early on. I don't think anything about you. There's nothing to go on right now. I don't think that post was in your favor, though. On July 12 2012 10:41 Risen wrote: I'm down to call people out on their stupidity, I'm just not going to be so aggressive about it. So just take anywhere I'd call someone an idiot, a horrible host, a bad person, a failure at life, etc and replace it with kinder, gentler words. I think... On July 12 2012 10:42 Risen wrote: EBWOP: This shift isn't to appease anyone. I'm only doing it b/c past experience has shown that calling out idiots on their horrible play leads to them being reinforced in their opinions. So now I'll try to be gentle, kind Risen and guide them like sheeple. On July 12 2012 11:26 Risen wrote: I've heard worse plans  On July 12 2012 12:39 Risen wrote: Holy shit I used a smiley face... Of course it is also plausible that risen is townie and just trying to have some fun. 3) For me, the most suspicious thing in Risen's filter is his address @gonzaw: On July 12 2012 09:49 Risen wrote: Any particular reason you're trying to push something on people with a low post count in thread so early? Didn't even know lurking was possible at this point. So you're either an extremely eager townie or scum looking for easy targets to push early. As gonzaw pointed out, this is some shoddy scumhunting. First of all, "looking for easy targets to push early" isn't very convincing mafia motivation for gonzaw's posts. But more importantly, Risen is condescending towards gonzaw but then concludes that gonzaw is either eager townie or scum. Risen doesn't actually say anything worthwhile at all in this post. One townie point in Risen's filter: On July 12 2012 10:41 Risen wrote: I'm down to call people out on their stupidity, I'm just not going to be so aggressive about it. So just take anywhere I'd call someone an idiot, a horrible host, a bad person, a failure at life, etc and replace it with kinder, gentler words. I think... On July 12 2012 10:42 Risen wrote: EBWOP: This shift isn't to appease anyone. I'm only doing it b/c past experience has shown that calling out idiots on their horrible play leads to them being reinforced in their opinions. So now I'll try to be gentle, kind Risen and guide them like sheeple. His 1-minute EBWOP shows that he is unafraid and didn't put all too much thought into either of these posts. I see this as indicative of a townie. There are all my thoughts on Risen. I'm keeping my eye on him. strongandbig+ Show Spoiler + On July 12 2012 07:33 strongandbig wrote: sup bros i am currently watching Le Closer in french in my hotel room. Scum y'all best get ready to get motherfucking interrogated I'm not going to find him scummy off this one post. If anything, I think he is townie because I think a scum strongandbig would be more likely to pause his movie and go make a decent post or two than a townie strongandbig who isn't as worried. Mattchew+ Show Spoiler + I don't have a significant read on anything in his filter right now. His first post doesn't strike me as scummy. Also, I am a little bit suspicious of marv+ Show Spoiler + On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Talis proposed a slightly idealistic, impractical, and unnecessary plan. I think this was clear to everybody. But Marv not only takes the time to criticize talis's ideas, but also says that he'd like to lynch talis. A good, townie marv should say something like "Talis proposed a 'nonsense' plan. I think this is evidence that he is mafia because X, Y, and Z. Therefore I would like to lynch him." But marv doesn't say why he thinks talis is scummy. In fact marv doesn't even say that talis is scummy, just that he would like to lynch talis for his "never-ending bullshit". @marv Do you really think talis is scummy? If so, why? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote: Dropbear and Milton haven't even posted, but well we can't do anything about it. I just want to mention that miltonkram said he'd be busy so wait before you go branding him as quiet/lurky. On July 10 2012 17:31 Miltonkram wrote: Eh, screw it. I'll /in this game if people don't mind me being a little inactive for the first 12-24 hours. The players in this game look too good to pass up. SK has a 50% probability of inclusion in setup? As per a C9++? What numbers of mafs are there potentially? iirc 2 or 3 are only possible mafia counts in C9++ and 3 is more likely. Is it the same here? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Do you guys have any suspicions yet? Maybe you could comment on my post about risen/marv or about gonzaw's accusations of risen/strongandbig/Mattchew? This thread is too quiet for my liking -- please share some of your thoughts. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'm no longer suspicious of Risen. His recent posting reads townie to me. The last 3 posts have been direct responses with response times of 4 minutes, 4 minutes, and 3 minutes. Additionally, the substance of these 3 posts is somewhat controversial and could catch him some flak (having no reads, wanting to make connections first, thinking dropbear is suspicious). It would take guts as scum to make such posts so quickly. Risen gives me the feeling he is completely unafraid, even though gonzaw and I previously voiced suspicions of him. So now I'm thinking townie on him. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
neutrality/passivity+ Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 00:57 marvellosity wrote: Having a quick flick through a few filters, Keirathi comes across as sounding incredibly neutral. I've noticed the same thing about Keirathi as marv: that almost everything hes says is bland and not controversial. He does a lot of talking about very matter-of-fact things: On July 12 2012 08:19 Keirathi wrote: Well, ideally since this is not a newbie game, we shouldn't have townies lurking much. Its a bit different in newbie games because people don't really know how to play, and since everyone here should have a decent idea of how to play, then people lurking is strategy rather than ignorance. That's not to say that I think lynching lurkers is a particularly good idea, but looking into lurkers has more merit in this type of game than a newbie one. As far as claims, I myself haven't played in a game where masons/roleblockers claimed, so I'll have to look into it, but I agree with the points made about RB'ers so far, so that at least makes sense. An unclaimed miller causes more confusion than its worth though, and I can't really think of a situation in which a miller wouldn't want to claim. On July 12 2012 08:49 Keirathi wrote: We don't have doctors anyways. On July 12 2012 17:25 Keirathi wrote: He said when he joined that he was going to be afk for 12-24 hours when the game started. On July 13 2012 06:00 Keirathi wrote: Those posts are reasonably close together, and his response to me was the only one where he had been mentioned. Granted, its just the last 3 posts in his filter before you made this accusation, but it seems like a pretty baseless accusation. Pre-Post edit: sorry I'm replying to this late. I've been working through the 75 posts that were made while I was asleep/at work making notes. These posts give me the feeling that Keirathi is just looking for easy posts to make. Especially the last one. I don't know why Keirathi feels the need to defend Talis from a very minor accusation from Mattchew. unconvincing scumhunting+ Show Spoiler + I could probably look through every other player's filter right now and find an original, insightful reason for accusing somebody. But all of Keirathi's accusations are based off evidence that had already been mentioned or just seems trivial and unconvincing. On July 12 2012 15:38 Keirathi wrote: The only things that have thrown up yellow flags so far were people proposing less than optimal (read: bad) policy plans, ie talis, but I don't feel that was necessarily out of a scum mindset, just didn't think it through very well. However, like I said, its about patterns in behavior which is why I keep notes the way I do (which you saw in NMM XIX). Here is the first time Keirathi talks about anything he finds even mildly suspicious, and only after I prompted him for it. He repeats the already-covered "bad plans" but doesn't really go anywhere with it. I asked him for suspicions and he wrote a few sentences which say basically nothing. On July 13 2012 03:33 Keirathi wrote: So I was going back through the thread looking for more information, when this leaped out at me. When I read it the first time through, I didn't think anything of it because I don't have previous experience with you, but if you propose the same plan in every game you play in, then how is it "half-assed musing" this time? It feels like you're pre-emptively making an excuse for a bad plan. And why, as a townie, are you half-assing things anyways? I don't buy into his point here at all. He brings up talismania's plan yet again, and makes some very easy criticism of Talis. "pre-emptively making an excuse for a bad plan" isn't convincing scum motivation to me. Talis's post is easy to criticize, but I think it's a stretch to say it's scummy. marv demanded some real reads and Keirathi posted this in response:+ Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 06:55 Keirathi wrote: Certainly. strongandbig + Show Spoiler + On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote: Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He comes in by leaving himself an excuse for his inactivity that he can fall back on later, then proceeds to lay out basically an entire case based on pure speculation. So why are you letting him have a free pass for doing it this time? Together, I feel this is a decent case for him being scum but his recent reply to gonzaw's post gives him so townie cred back in my eye. I'm still keeping an eye on him. DropBear I'm mainly suspicious here of his vote for Vivax. When his previous calling out of Vivax was simply asking questions + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 01:39 DropBear wrote: Vivax I am very confused as the reasoning behind your voting so far. Why did you choose strongandbig initially? What do you mean by an informative post? Cos he made a case he must be town or something? What are the differences in sciberbia you talk about? As an aside, its pretty frustrating that so many arguments in this game are based on meta. As someone new to TL, I feel like I am disadvantaged when you all have so much extra information on each other. Both of these reads are easy criticisms of players that have already been criticized. Keirathi said strongandbig left himself "an excuse for inactivity that he could later fall back on". This seems like another stretch. strongandbig just said he was watching a movie. That's not a great excuse for inactivity and even so only buys him a couple hours. I highly doubt that a scum strongandbig would be scheming about how to get out of posting for 2-3 hours. Keirathi also criticizes strongandbig's post on marv and balance, but again this had already been covered by other people. His suspicion of dropbear was based off the vote on vivax. This is yet another easy point to accuse somebody on (a random vote) and again had already been covered in the thread. In conclusion, Keirathi's scumhunting is generally unoriginal, and unimpressive. A couple of his points feel like a stretch to me. This would be consistent with scum because scum knows that everyone else is town and has to try extra hard to contrive reasons why players are supsicious. Overall, I would rate Keirathi as somewhat suspicious I've got to go now, but I'll be back in a 2 hours and I'll look at the cases on other players at that time. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I think austin is probably townie overall posting style+ Show Spoiler + A lot of the accusations against austin have been along the lines of: -- I don't see why he feels the need to talk about this -- He uses a lot more words than are necessary -- He has giant blobs of text I've played with townie austin in NMM XV and XVII and as s0Lstice pointed out, austin is matching his townie meta pretty closesly. I wouldn't hold his posting style against him because it just seems to be the way he plays the game. See these posts from XV and XVII: + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 02:31 austinmcc wrote: Okay, so, we're really stagnating here. Got ... three votes? on three people. Not a lot of thread activity. I'm still looking mainly at Crossfire, a little at Suki. But this has to happen. LURKERS AND BROKEN PROMISES Crossfire - Crossfire has had a whopping 2 hours of activity this day cycle. Lurked, posted a few things in that time span, and now has not been back for 22 hours. We've got no reads from him, no response to the thread's suspicions of him, and that ain't good. Trackdoor - 16-17 hours MIA. Could be sleep/job, but he was active at a lot of different points of the first half of D1. Hasn't commented on anything since Rofl's case on alan. Mouldy Jeb - 22 hours MIA. Was active about 2 hours before this time and 2 hours after this time during the first real day of D1. Contributed some super shoddy reads, called out crossfire for lurking, and also gave us this:Broken promise to contribute Golden - Has 2 posts of substance + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote: agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden On June 14 2012 19:18 O.Golden_ne wrote: I apologize if i stray from the format i laid out previously Summary of Day One - My Perspective. I see early on a bandwagon forming on Alan113, initially ROLF (i like how this nickname has cropped up) argument has a little basis but is quickly disputed and resolved by the group. Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. I'm sitting here at my laptop and i honestly am 50-50 on Suki. I like your writing style and you can word your insights well and you have been aggressive from the get go. These are all very useful traits in day one. Tunnelling Alan113, where i can't see a small case against him, however is a big cross against your name for me. Notable Events Day One - My Opinion Suki's barrage on Alan113 and her flash in the pan vote on Trackd00r. RAWFL's pushover regarding Crossfire's passing comment about changing votes. (could his following #fos be a response to a scum-slip vote-pull to then posture as a hardline-aggressive-townie?) My People! - The Presets. (Queue this track for dramatic effect.) Crossfire99 - i'm agreeing with what he's said about being careful with your votes. I personally think the #FOS should be used a bit more. With his posts though i would like a little more player-read-relevant posts towards the end of this day =] Sciberbia - i know its a little dangerous for me to be using these terms early on (or at all) but i'm getting a good vibe from sciberbia. I read a pseudo-leadership role coming from him. His argument and opinions are tending to align themselves with me well. HeavonEarth - sorry for being afk bro. hopefully some of this analysis clears me off your radar. Reluctant to vote on suki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons. i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?). Suspicion??? i'm looking at MJ and austinmcc at the moment. I know its a bit rich for me to be pointing the finger at anyone for lurking. However i just dont like what i'm reading, especially MJ. The early gentle push on Miltonkram was a bit off. Considering it was a joke! I may make a case on MJ in the coming hours. #FOS Mouldy Jeb On June 14 2012 19:25 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly. Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character. about suki, well read above. I want to reserve judgement on both alan113 and suki until day two. I think a Mouldy Jeb lynch may be a little more productive. On June 14 2012 19:31 O.Golden_ne wrote: honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers. GauldenWahn Broken promise to contribute Honorable Mention - Sciberbia - You said you'd be away, but given the way this day is going so far we're going to need contributions when you return. Where are you guys? Where are these promised posts? Golden, what about this - ? + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2012 00:21 austinmcc wrote: Alright, looks like I'm a lovely replacement for Ange. Lurk around for more than half the day cycle, then finally get active. Now if only it would lead to the same results... Regarding today's lynch, my vote is on Vivax. Because we already have some robust cases and scumreads on him, I won't get too specific here, but I know that you haven't gotten much from Ange/me since pushing suki, so I at least want to show my reasoning. I feel like he's got a very good chance of flipping scum, but I'd like to hear some more from him. Parts of his filter do read town to me. ##Vote: Vivax Vivax As long as we're considering heist vs. vivax for a lynch today, "defending suki" isn't really helpful because we're looking at two players that did so. So here are some specifics.
I found this reasoning odd. His focus on who has "contributed" more. Suki has posted, but not all that much, and Vivax, I'd like to know what you felt Suki had contributed. It's difficult for me to get a read on this because I actually saw the Suki lynch and flip before replacing in, so I was a little biased here. But rereading, I don't get the feeling that Suki contributed more than Ange, who had come back and, while having lurked for a bit, was actually moving discussion forward and contributing a solid read and case. I highlist this because again, it seems like Vivax is overly focused on earlier actions. Ange came back with hours to spare, as she mentioned she had plenty of time to post a case, argue back and forth, have other suspicions, etc. This wasn't a 5-minutes-to-deadline ninja return. Look at the last line in particular. Ange has returned, has made a case, has discussed. Yet Vivax is informing her that she's HAVING a bad impact on the game. Sure, she had a bad impact the first 24 hours, but since returning has actively had a good impact on the game. Times have changed. If you are anti-lurking, fine, dandy, but I find it suspicious to be anti-lurker AND state that someone is negatively impacting the game for NOT lurking. What is actually being negatively impacted here? The scum team. Further, although it's a little hyperbolic and so I'm not putting much weight on this, Vivax wants to lynch Ange for returning and becoming active.
This is sort of a null tell, but worth discussing. He initially thinks Heist is town - + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 20:20 Vivax wrote: Heist: I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie. If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority. However, given that i suspect others more for their passivity, I dont think that Heist is scum. On June 01 2012 08:16 Vivax wrote: With all that said, heist, you're either badly informed about the game or scum. Pick one. On June 02 2012 07:40 Vivax wrote: Stop suspecting heist, he was the first to defend Ange777 against my accusations and kept that stance throughout this whole last phase. He would have wanted her to get lynched if he was mafia. But why does he change back to being suspicious of heist? Heist's bussing comment + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 19:48 Vivax wrote: 12 minutes later, 'It looks like I am bussing'. Just saying, the choice of words kinda looks strange in light of the previous post, simply because you believe I am bussing when you don't believe he is mafia. Can't really call his post regarding ridiculousness of the vote a defense of suki cause he just comments on my actions, but I've already announced that I would not risk a NL. Throw the term bussing out and look at what happened from Vivax's end, he went from a town read to a scum read on heist, because heist didn't want Vivax to vote for someone that Vivax thought was town. How is that a legitimate reason to find someone scummy?
His fixation on Eishi_Ki never felt solid, and I read Eishi pretty towny. The fact that he tunneled Eishi long after it was clear that Eishi wasn't going to be a lynch target tells me that either: (a) Vivax is mafia and posts on Eishi help it look like he's contributing and help boost his filter; or (b) both town. Really heavy tunneling 1 on 1s seem to be the latter, so that's actually more on the townie side in my mind. That's hastily constructed, but hopefully outlines my general thoughts on Vivax. It doesn't cover everything, and I know I haven't touched on heist or other topics. Never replaced in and it's odd to get started midway through. I've got to actually do some work at work and need to be active in my other game, but I should be around and post some more throughout the day. + Show Spoiler + On June 08 2012 04:20 austinmcc wrote: On heist I found his voting scummy. However, I found it odd because he swapped to Unforgiven and that seemed like a play to have a non-Suki candidate in the mix now that Ange was back and did not seem like a legitimate target. However, given that I now feel like I do about Unforgiven, and given that Ange found him scummy while pushing suki (I feel like as her replacement I should try and put myself in her shoes for D1), I'm willing to believe that town could find both suki and unforgiven scummy. Ange happened to find suki scummier at first, voted her, FoSed unforgiven. Heist happened to find Unforgiven scummier early, voted him, then later suki. I don't find that bussing comment scummy, as I've said. Therefore, I don't want to vote heist today (However, I'd like for him to, you know, contribute here). However, I sought some non-tunneling coaching, and after considering that, I need to consider a heist lynch. Can you guys give me like...your number 1 reason besides the voting pattern and the bussing comment that you find Heist scummy? On golden/ShiaoPi Starting with Xatalos's initial post - + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: ShiaoPi Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia: - Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens. On June 06 2012 06:59 sciberbia wrote: I think it's likely I die tonight, so here are my (possible) last words + Show Spoiler + I understand you weren't all convinced about heist based on my arguments yesterday, but hopefully seeing the flips of Vivax, superouman and (possibly) me, you'll now be willing to lynch him. I don't really have anything new to say about him; just reread my filter. No amount of defense will convince me he's not mafia. Given that heist flips red, I think shiaopi is very likely the last mafia and I'd request that you lynch him. Here are some points against him: - golden's behavior toward me in the beginning was suspicious. He said that he wasn't really expecting a bandwagon to form, but he seemed really ready & willing to cast a vote on me if my defense wasn't good. - golden said he'd be willing to lynch 4 people, all of which I think are town - golden's defense of suki was really scummy - shiaopi is defensive of heist, who I'm pretty sure is mafia - shiaopi's stance on vivax went from "maybe there is a slight chance of him being a bad townie" to "wtf no idea" pretty quickly If heist/shiaopi are not both mafia, I'm not really sure who is. I'm leaning at least slightly town on eveybody else, but I'd probably go with either miltonkram or eishi_ki. Golden's posts: Sorry Shiao, you're stuck with them. You/Golden are the same alignment, Ange/I am the same alignment. You got dealt the crappier hand there. Golden DID lightly defend suki early on. However, when I look at the timing, he did so before the convincing cases had been made. I'm going to give him a little credit for that, because he didn't defend suki after suki was really taking a pounding. ShiaoPi's vote on Vivax: I did the same thing, but didn't publicize it. Heck, I did the same thing in my last newbie game every time I pushed someone that ended up town. Sinking feeling 5-10 minutes before lynch, but telling yourself there's no time to do anything, and if you were sure yesterday, and sure that morning, shouldn't you just listen to past self? At the very least, I don't get anything from this. YES, Shiao could be mafia trying to get cred. OR, Shiao is town and had doubts. Either is plausible. Suspecting Eishi_Ki - Suki soft defended Eishi_Ki like crazy earlier. One of the more surprising things I found while rereading. Like...3 times or so? Frankly, Eishi_Ki hasn't done much. If his filter was full, Suki's posts wouldn't stand out like they do. With so little to work with on Eishi_Ki, I agree with Shiao that the Suki posts make him look bad. So, I'm not finding Shiao scummy off of that. Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy. sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now. Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon. + Show Spoiler + On June 08 2012 05:54 austinmcc wrote: Here's why I suggest a mislynch. And this is entirely dependent on both not returning. If both heist/eishi are town, we lose. If ONE is town, we either lynch scum, mislynch and lose, or no lynch. It would take every single town vote on the non-lurking scum in order to lynch. Shiao doesn't think heist is scum. I still don't think heist is scum (Again, I need something beyond the vote and the bussing comment). So if one of the lurkers is mafia, either one of us gets convinced at the 11th hour or else we have to lynch someone other than heist. If NEITHER is town, then we win if they both stay inactive. That's why I want to no lynch right now. IF both are inactive, then the only situation in which we should lynch is if we are absolutely sure about who the non-lurking mafia is. So you need to convince shiao or i. Otherwise, it would have to be non-heist. OR we can no-lynch, because then we lose 1 mafia/1 town to inactivity and 1 to NK. We're then 3/1 tomorrow and can pull it off. Unless we're 10000000% sure who the mafia are, a no lynch is the best option IF we don't get activity. Someone correct me if I'm wrong (gotta walk dogs, back in 15-20). We cannot win if both lurkers town. We can only win if both lurkers mafia. We can win with a correct lynch OR a no lynch is it's 1/1. I would rather have the extra day to be more sure. Things that mess up that analysis - if we're in the medic/cop version. In which case ...I dunno. The optimal play would be something like cop claiming, medic not claiming, and hoping a medic save could get us another day in some cases? Or if either one returns/doesn't get modkilled. + Show Spoiler + On June 09 2012 06:38 austinmcc wrote: Okay so, here are some thoughts as I do a read through, without addressing the cases. I'm just reading through the thing and giving comments wherever a post of Golden/Shiao or Xatalos sticks out. Very disorganized, but at least I'll get it all out and you can look over it if I'm the night target: D1 - heist and suki are both pushing cattivik once you hit pg. 7 or 8. Golden also believes cattivik scum, while xatalos defends him. Golden not just saying he's scum, but pushing a scum read on xatalos towards eishi + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 22:40 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Eishi_ki: Consider if Xatalos is scum. This is opinion on Cattivik, who i think is scum. "Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good." Food for thought. D1 - this post + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence. I guess what i'm trying to say is. scumslips will stay on the record, and chances are if they are scumslipping this early they'll continue as time goes on. Lurker however, if not dealt with early in the game where they are less of a % of the team, may end up in the final rounds where the % of town per player is alot higher and the responsibility of town individuals is even higher. These are my thoughts. more soon. x D1 - Xatalos DOES keep changing his reads. And he DOES keep asking for other opinions. See things like - + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 15:07 Xatalos wrote: I have to go offline until the evening, but there's a lot I want to comment on then. I must say I'm not as certain anymore about Unforgiven_ve's guiltiness after reading his latest post. What do you think about that post, s0Lstice and Suki? Did you get that slight townie read from it? Superouman and Ange777, I REALLY want to hear something from you both soon. If Unforgiven_ve keeps up this style of posting, it would be better to lynch either of you (to at least certainly limit the pool of suspicious and useless lurkers/coasters). So as of now, I'm reading Xatalos town and Golden scummy. Xatalos has moved, but moved with reasons and moved his vote at decent times. He's never the first on maybe, but he gives some reasoning and he's never the last off. Golden has held his vote this whole time, while suki moves around and heist is sitting on superouman. Ange posts her case on suki. Xatalos responds, saying there are some mistakes, not moving off of suki. He doesn't just tell her the case is wrong though. He says, + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can. Ange has the bit where she FoSes Unforgiven. Xatalos follows her there. Not that odd, considering he'd already pushed unforgiven earlier. Easier to see him moving his vote to a non-ange/suki candidate when he was already on that person. Golden still has yet to (1) vote OR (2) comment on ange's case on suki. heist comes in to push unforgiven, to say he thinks ange and suki are townie. No mention of golden at all, who's the ONLY person yet to vote and hasn't responded to the suki case, one of the few players to do so. Why is heist not suspicious of golden? Thread brings up golden a few times, but he never becomes a giant topic of discussion, so it's not enough for me that heist doesn't call out golden for being absent because some townies fail to do so as well. Neither suki nor heist mentions his absence though. Okay, there's my D1 stream of consciousness. Looking back at that, I see golden coming off scummy, although the end of the day is ruined a little by his absolute absence. While xatalos moves his vote, I'm not seeing it move in a very scummy way. Moreover, the way that xatalos pushes for further information on suki feels very town to me. Also, as a minor point, I don't like how suki/heist/golden all pushing cattivik early and xatalos is not jumping aboard. Seems like maybe mafia team wanted to set cattivik up, because eishi_ki was suspicious of him, so you've got an easy bandwagon to start pushing. Notice that he is very fond of the large-blobs-of-text posts, and that he often makes posts that seem a bit out of place, but do contain genuine thoughts. For example: + Show Spoiler + On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Yes he spends some time bashing talis's plan, but he does bring up a couple of valid points that nobody had previously stated: -- townies might feel pressured to make a stretch to reach 3 cases -- the plan would promote unnecessary bickering among town -- it would encourage us to lynch people universally seen as only slightly scummy Also, his question about gonzaw seems a bit weird for a townie to ask, but even more bizarre for a scum to ask. I know town austin gets frustrated when he makes bad scumreads, and I get the feeling he genuinely wants advice. sheer amount of effort+ Show Spoiler + austin isn't the most experienced or confident player, so if he were scum I'd really expect him to try to blend into the background. But this is something he has certainly not done. He has put in some serious effort into his posts about talis and risen, and he has recently started sharing thoughts on s0Lstice as well. gonzaw was wondering why austin spent so much time in Risen's filter only to conclude that Risen seemed townie. If you look at his posts, he is suspicious of Risen before he does all that research, but then changes his mind as a result of his research, so the research on Risen's history did in fact serve a purpose, as austin explains. Also, the amount of effort he put into researching Risen's past games seems much more likely to be town-motivated than scum-motivated. @gonzaw Go reread everything austin wrote on Risen. I think you are overly suspicious as a result of misreading austin's posts. Marv and austin pointed this out, but your vote is still on austin. Do you still think he is the best lynch? Defense of s0Lstice+ Show Spoiler + Austin's defense of s0Lstice also gave me a townie feel. I don't think that a scum austin would defend either a townie or a scum s0Lstice. Scum austin would probably not be interested in dissauding an eager marv from his case against the unusually lurky s0Lstice (potentially an easy target and great townie to get rid of). I also don't think a scum austin would have the confidence to defend an unusually lurky scum s0Lstice. In conclusion, I'm quite adverse to the idea of lynching today. I think he is townie. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I noticed how quiet s0Lstice has been and thought marv's case looked promising. But upon further review, Overall I'm a bit torn on s0Lstice. I want to see more from him and do not think he's a good lynch today. slightly scummy points: subpar scumhunting His only real accusations are on Miltonkram and Risen, and I'm not really impressed by either of his cases. I'm used to more from s0Lstice. However, I really think even scum s0Lstice would be capable of doing some more impressive scumhunting, so I think it's quite likely that he's simply been busy or having an off day, and that his quietness says nothing about his allignment. I'll be paying close attention to his future cases. townhunting on gonzaw This was distinctly odd to me. Marv gave a null read on gonzaw, and s0Lstice argued that gonzaw should be a town read. Nobody has even been accusing gonzaw, so why does s0Lstice defend gonzaw from marv's null read? A bit fishy. Null points: s0Lstice's comment on my late post On July 12 2012 07:39 s0Lstice wrote: anyway, in the other games I've played with sciberbia, he has had a post prepared as soon as the daypost hit the presses. it usually contains his thoughts on the typical day 1 fodder etc. needless to say he has never played scum. I'm wondering where he is.. @marv, I really don't think his comment is 'insidious'. In all three games I've played with s0Lstice, I've made a rather sizeable post very shortly after the daypost which has usually been a topic of discussion. As I said earlier, I was half-expecting someone to comment on my absense. And anyways, I really don't think s0Lstice was expecting for this point to go anywhere -- it's rather trivial. s0Lstice's probing questions Marv took issue with s0Lstice's probing questions at the start of the game without giving his opinion. I don't really see this as suspicious. s0Lstice asked some similar questions in NMM XV and XVII, and while it is true that he refrained from giving his own opinions, s0Lstice doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that would be afraid of being aggressive as scum. townie points: s0Lstice's defense of austinmcc This is a serious townie point for s0Lstice in my eyes. I think austin is probably town, and I think that s0Lstice's defense of austin was quite significant seeing as austin has some serious suspicion on him and s0Lstice seems to be regarded as the authority on all things austin. I think it's unlikely that a scum s0Lstice would hard-defend a town austin in that situation. In Conclusion I don't see anything that scummy about s0Lstice, so I wouldn't be comfortable with lynching s0Lstice today. However, I will definitely be keeping a close eye on him, because he hasn't done much to convince me he is town either. I've been digging through filters, and here is my concise opinion on some popular names keirathi: still most suspicious vivax: 2nd most suspicious dropbear/risen/miltonkram/s0Lstice: All of these are nullish reads for me, and I wouldn't feel great about lynching any of them. If I had to pick one right now, it'd be dropbear. strongandbig: probably town austinmcc: probably town I'll try to post more of my reasoning before I go to bed (especially on Vivax and strongandbig). Since I've now looked through every filter and still find keirathi most suspicious, I will ##Vote keirathi I'll be playing monobattles with some friends for the next hour or two. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Vivax is slightly suspicious overall First of all, gonzaw's reason for his townread on Vivax is a couple of joking early game accusations. While I agree that his early posts give a townie feel, they are not the definitive towntell that gonzaw makes them out to be. Vivax is not a typical timid newbie. In the one game I played with him, he was disctinctly bold, confident, and confrontational (as townie). Also, remember that role PMs were sent out significantly prior to the daypost, so scum had time to think about how they wanted to begin the game. Now as to why I think he is suspicious. See these quotes: + Show Spoiler + On July 12 2012 16:29 Vivax wrote: There's no link to a voting thread in the OP methinks.Add pls? ##Vote On July 12 2012 17:21 Vivax wrote: ##unvote strongandbig ##Vote Miltonkram Well you said you were watching something on tv yesterday and would start calling out scum soon, so I thought you were monitoring the game. Anyway, that was a pretty informative post about marv, you have my seal of approval for unlurking. Now I wanna see something from Milton :p. On July 12 2012 18:30 Vivax wrote: @ NSH It's cause of a habit. I just tend to expect links in underlined words <_<. Back to the topic: ##unvote strongandbig Very informative post about marv there. Wanted to vote Milton next but he posted. He tries to make himself pretty transparent by posting his games. It's a good sign, but nothing decisive. Speaking of meta, sciberbia doesn't look good based on that.I was with him in two games and I feel like he's being different in this one. s0lstice already pointed out the missing fast posts we're used to see from scib at the start of the game. That alone is forgivable given the posted reasons. But the overall gut feeling is still bad cause of the overall style. On July 13 2012 09:07 Vivax wrote: I'm not comfortable with a tali lynch. Comparing filters I found Miltonkrams filter to be fairly empty and he targetted the easy target. He posted 1. A list of his games to make himself available for a metacheck. 2. He comments on Talis plan being bad, and that being reason enough to be scummy. My impression of talis plan gone bad so far: It's a magnet for players with no/bad cases to have a reason to post something accusing. The downside is that it might have triggered policy discussion and a lot of chaos, while promising a lot of clarity by forcing players to take a hard stance, so talis plan was risky from a town perspective, and I'd leave it at that. He said it worked in bastard mafia, let's leave it at that: It won't be used here. 3. Defending oneself isn't scummy. If it's really the only thing you do, then yes, but Milton already knows that it's not the only thing tali is doing: still seems to firmly believe in a scum tali. He doesn't have any other reads. He comments on Keirathi and sciberbia being unreadable to him. I'll go for Milton if I don't see some arguments to his defense. I get the feeling that he is not accusing people for any insightful reasons, but rather attacking easy targets for easy reasons. The first vote is on strongandbig for lurking alone. Then strongandbig made his "marv balance" post, and Vivax called it "pretty informative" and gave strongandbig his "seal of approval for unlurking." This seems artificial to me. On July 12 2012 18:30 Vivax wrote: Wanted to vote Milton next but he posted. He tries to make himself pretty transparent by posting his games. It's a good sign, but nothing decisive. Next Vivax reveals that he was planning on voting the other lurker (Miltonkram) next. Again, his accusations don't seem like reactions to the game, but rather preordained votes and reasons for voting. He gives a little wishy/washy read on Milton before moving on. On July 12 2012 18:30 Vivax wrote: Speaking of meta, sciberbia doesn't look good based on that.I was with him in two games and I feel like he's being different in this one. s0lstice already pointed out the missing fast posts we're used to see from scib at the start of the game. That alone is forgivable given the posted reasons. But the overall gut feeling is still bad cause of the overall style. On July 13 2012 01:49 Vivax wrote: I remember sciberbia for more concise, compact posts, and I remember him posting really early. He already explained why he didn't post early in this game, so what remains are the posts that subjectively look different to me. But I prefer to not rely heavily on meta, my play changes often aswell and I don't have as much experience. His suspicions of me also seem a bit baseless. I think he overplays the fact that my first post was an hour late by calling it "forgiveable", as if it was some sin I committed. Then, he dismisses the point about the first post, and says he is left with "the posts that look subjectively different". And immediately after, he sorta discounts this evidence as well, saying that he prefers not to rely heavily on meta. So I am left with a gut feeling read based on posts that look "subjectively different". Again I think this might be a contrived case. Notice that he says hardly anything to persuade anyone else of my guilt (or of strongandbig's for that matter). If he really thinks I am scum, he should be trying to persuade other people. Finally, he has posted this case on Milton + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 09:07 Vivax wrote: I'm not comfortable with a tali lynch. Comparing filters I found Miltonkrams filter to be fairly empty and he targetted the easy target. He posted 1. A list of his games to make himself available for a metacheck. 2. He comments on Talis plan being bad, and that being reason enough to be scummy. My impression of talis plan gone bad so far: It's a magnet for players with no/bad cases to have a reason to post something accusing. The downside is that it might have triggered policy discussion and a lot of chaos, while promising a lot of clarity by forcing players to take a hard stance, so talis plan was risky from a town perspective, and I'd leave it at that. He said it worked in bastard mafia, let's leave it at that: It won't be used here. 3. Defending oneself isn't scummy. If it's really the only thing you do, then yes, but Milton already knows that it's not the only thing tali is doing: still seems to firmly believe in a scum tali. He doesn't have any other reads. He comments on Keirathi and sciberbia being unreadable to him. I'll go for Milton if I don't see some arguments to his defense. He chastises milton for going after the easy target (I'm not really sure talis is an easy target but w/e), but then does it himself by going after the player with the least posts. Vivax then lists a bunch of true facts about milton, but in my opinion doesn't sufficiently explain why they are evidence of miltonkram's guilt. He concludes by saying "I'll go for Milton if I don't see some arguments to his defense", which again seems like rather uninterested scumhunting. Vivax is currently 2nd on my list of suspects after Keirathi. Speaking of which @Keirathi On July 13 2012 14:04 Keirathi wrote: EBWOP: That is to say, its unfair to me, but I guess I understand it to an extent. I have a different way of looking at the game and I don't particularly like the whole "point at finger at everything until something sticks" way that day 1 tends to play out as. I'm fairly good at making reads from connections and patterns, but not from this day 1 bullshit. If that is enough to get my lynched, then so be it. I'll play this way any time that I'm town. But at least you aren't killing off a blue, so I'm not really that upset about it. If you're really town, at least give us the chance to read you that way. I don't think this defeatist attitude is going to convince anybody. Do some more scumhunting. Post some of your notes. IMO, nothing in your filter is irrevocably scummy, and I'd like to think that I'd be able to change my mind on you if you are town and make some good posts. I think strongandbig is probably town His "marv balance" post gives me a slightly townie feel. I don't think that all his balance talk is allignment-indicative, but I like that he was suspicious of marv for suggesting a Talis lynch. He basically got the same read as me here. On July 12 2012 23:35 strongandbig wrote: Meanwhile, I feel like there's something to be read in Gonzaw's post about Derpbear - I'm just not sure what. Dropbera accuses Gonzaw of tryharding overmuch, when he's just Gonzawing - then Gonzaw attacks him in a way that I'm pretty sure either exaggerates or straight up mischaracterizes dropper's tiny filter. hmmmmmmmmmmm...... I'll think some more about this later tonight. Gonzaw, have you and DropBurp ever played together before? These seem like townie musings to me, unless maybe gonzaw + strongandbig are both scum. I think he genuinely felt something odd about the posts and put his thoughts in the thread without making a big deal out of it. This would be a rather odd thing for scum to say. His defense against gonzaw was extremely frustrated and confrontational. This is a townie defense in my eyes. It takes nerve as scum to shout a lie. I'd like to seem a few more original cases from him, but overall I'm thinking town on strongandbig and would not like to lynch him today. I'm going to bed. I'll be following the thread from 11AM to 6PM EDT at work. Right now I'd only feel good about lynching Keirathi or Vivax. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
If you've already taken the time to assemble the votecount, could you post it? Also, I made my stances clear last night and they haven't changed. I'd be happy lynching Keirathi or Vivax. I could tolerate a lynch on dropbear/s0Lstice/Miltonkram/Risen, but I really think that Keirathi and Vivax are more suspicious. I'm at work till 6PM and I'm following the thread. I'm currently voting Keirathi but I'd be happy to switch to Vivax if enough people share my views on him. Unless I see any really scummy posts or convincing cases, I will vote for someone other than Keirathi/Vivax if and only if it proves necessary to prevent a NL. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Also, does anybody else not like how Vivax went from 0 to 60 on Risen just as the bandwaggon on Risen was gathering steam? I'm really not sure if I find Vivax or Keirathi more suspicious right now. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 14 2012 04:09 Risen wrote: Guess what? There aren't any sheeple townies in this game. On July 14 2012 02:18 Mattchew wrote: I am going to sheep marv, on solistice most likely lol sorry just couldn't resist pointing this out | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 14 2012 03:55 Miltonkram wrote: @ sciberbia I would be interested in hearing your opinion of DropBear. Sorry I just spotted this while going through your filter. In short, I am pretty neutral on him. His first post feels townie to me. His next couple posts feel sketchy. His vote on vivax is not a scumtell IMO. I think scum would be extremely wary of voting with so little reasoning. His conviction in a talis & vivax scumteam seems a bit suspicious. I really just don't have a strong feel on him one way or the other. Goddamn this is messy. It doesn't feel like anybody has enough cumulative suspicion on them to get them lynched. I'm feeling like vivax would be my personal top choice right now followed by Keirathi, but nobody else seems that interested in lynching them. Maybe I'm wrong, but as I see it these are the realistic lynch candidates at this point: keirathi, vivax, risen, s0Lstice, dropbear, austin For me, from most to least scummy, it is: vivax, keirathi, dropbear, s0Lstice, risen, austin I really don't know which of them we can even get enough votes for, but I'm currently feeling more anti-vivax than anti-keriathi and I think the vivax case also has more steam behind it, so I will ##Unvote ##Vote Vivax Can we get a votecount please? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
you make some decent points. I find a couple of those points slightly suspicious (disruptive posting, bad case on vivax), but overall I could easily see him as just being a frustrating townie. I'm not convinced Risen is scummy, so I don't share your suspicion there. I'm inclined to believe dropbear that he was ninja'd by marv in his original vote post for vivax. It's just too random of a lie to be made up. As I said, I think his "case" on vivax is a bit too blatant for it to be from a scum. Scum should be careful about making bad cases. That said, I'd be willing to consolidate on dropbear because the only players I find definitively scummier than him (you and Vivax) don't seem to be getting lynched. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'd be really adverse to an austin lynch | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 14 2012 06:24 Vivax wrote: Sciberbia, the question: has not been answered. You accused me of jumping on a Risen bandwagon. With zero posts to back it up. You know that if Risen flips scum, that defense is gonna get you lynched next. You lied. I was the first to vote for Risen. I assumed that the question was rhetorical because you would not be asking it if you were not the first to vote Risen. There were 4 posts on the page before yours of people throwing suspicion on risen: marv: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 02:29 marvellosity wrote: I'm not at all sure about s0lstice, for my timing reasons given earlier. I need to exercise/eat now, but I want people to seriously consider Risen austin and s0lstice (I think) both brought up points about his meta (defending townreads/connection scumhunting or some such). A couple of other people have noted his desire to change how he plays. however there is a significant difference from not playing too aggressive and not actually contributing or scumhunting. Remember way back earlier in the cycle when austin made his first case against Risen? Well Risen has done jack shit since then either and it's pretty late in the day to have done jack shit in. Other than that, general concerns: Keirathi is still quite uninvolved Some of austin's posts still seem misplaced Can't work out the angle behind Milton's attack on talismania Dropbear hasn't strayed too far from null for me s&b hasn't done anything particularly alignment indicating for me gonzaw doesn't know how to read towntells (this is a pointless jab actually) Overall I don't want to lynch any of s&b, dropbear, talis (I liked his last big post a lot) But yeah, please look at Risen and his contributions and tell me if you think he's townie (no 'he's playing nicer' excuses) s0Lstice+ Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 02:33 s0Lstice wrote: Yes, I will support a lynch on Risen. I think he has a decent chance at flipping scum. austin+ Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 02:36 austinmcc wrote: Risen man, if you think I'm sketchy because of my town read on you, then you're in luck. Because I'm pretty concerned that you're still doing nothing. You look less like you're trying to control yourself, part of my finding you townie, and more like you're just lurking. Seriously. Where are these thoughts? When are you going to contribute? Nobody but me really responded to Gonzaw's slight suspicions of Risen. Solstice is of two minds - + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 23:38 s0Lstice wrote: quick ninja post while I should be working, regarding my thing with Risen there are two conflicting ideas that I had some difficulty assignment weight to -Risen is genuinely trying to improve his town play, and will deviate from his meta as a result -Risen is matching a few key things in his scum meta His desire to change his playstyle did seem genuine, especially in the post-game of SSB. I ended up assigning more weight to the second idea though because I believe it is very difficult to escape one's meta, as it is something that largely stems from the subconscious. However, the difficulty involved in ending up where I did was enough to make me want to pursue Milton primarily. Oh fuck you Marv, ninjaing me. I'll go ahead and post this. gonzaw+ Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 02:49 gonzaw wrote: I don't like it at all that Risen hasn't shown up, he even promised to show up here: ...but damn, there's something that doesn't make me comfortable with lynching him  I don't really know how to explain it, but I actually think his "I don't like making reads right now" post may work in his favour (mostly because of the way he said it, like I don't think he'd say that if he was scum the way he did it at that point in time). But it's damn hard to figure out if he's town or scum (for now I kind of feel about him what I felt about Greymist in the MTG game, he could go either way, did "scummy" things but some tiny teeny things give me a gut town tell). I wouldn't oppose his lynch as a talis/Vivax/solstice lynch, but I'm not that comfortable with it, or rather I don't really feel confident in it at this point (although its D1 so maybe it's the best thing to do anyways). However I don't like that above post at all, but it's possible he's just late or something. I agree with marv that Keirath has not been involved in anything since a long time. I did notice some "townie" stuff he might have done (calling Dropbear out for calling him town, coming out of nowhere to defend Milton); but I get a more "noob scum" feel from the rest of his post (differently than other players like solstice for instance, where I get a "noob town" feel from their post but may have done some little "scummy" stuff), so I don't really take those into account. Hmm, I think I'll keep my vote on Keirath for now, him doing nothing since posting those reads like a day ago doesn't convince me to unvote him. @VIvax: Since lynch time is closing in pretty fast I'd like those opinions soon, also on Risen as well. Scum don't usually defend other guys and accuse people....? Could you be a little bit more specific? What about the rest of his posts? Holy crap 20 minutes to deadline | ||
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