Newbie Mini Mafia II

This game is open to NEW PLAYERS . This means 3 or fewer games played of TL mafia. Signups will remain open until the 9 spots have been filled.

On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote:
Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce.
However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons.

I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two.

So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor

On January 04 2012 10:20 Jitsu wrote:
I have played one Mafia game on the TL.Net forums, but I have played before elsewhere as well, in different mediums.

Echoing what is posted previously, it should be noted that contribution can only help town, as more posts means more analysis which can help root out who the scum players are.

Just wondering Probulous, why do you want to know how many games only those four players have played?

On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)

Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....

Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.

Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.

Also...

What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?

On January 04 2012 10:45 AnxiousHippo wrote:
Haha, hey. I don't really know what to do early on. Last game (the only other I've played) I think someone got lynched for something really stupid like asking for help. Scum is often afraid to make accusations and contradict themselves. They may say one thing today and the opposite tomorrow. In bigger games they might just lurk and post very occasionally to avoid attention but I don't think we'll have to worry about that so much this game since there's only 12 people. I don't have the slightest idea as to how to make a plan though.

On January 04 2012 11:18 CookieMaker wrote:



This for clarification



I strongly agree with this (the bad pun). It was well-played.

Joking aside, had to re-read the rules just to make sure no-lynches were possible. A no-lynch puts much stronger pressure on scum, especially since they have no way of knowing whether a DT is in the game or not.

Here's more informational math: There is a 50/50 chance of a DT being in the game. Right now that is also true from a mafia perspective, whether they have a roleblocker (they still see 50/50) or not.

On January 04 2012 11:27 AnxiousHippo wrote:
Why and how would an RB reveal themself?

On January 04 2012 11:21 Cephiro wrote:


Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles.

Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups.

I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on.

On January 04 2012 11:20 gonzaw wrote:


This is my first game here, I think I said so before.

I've played several games on UG though.


I think there are two players from Election Mafia (one game I observed quite recently), Sheth and Jitsu I believe.
I would suggest reread that game so we can know these guy's meta and stuff.

Also I'd like to know if someone else played another game here, so we can reread those games too.





Unless we are at MYLO, a miss-lynch gives you a lot of info.
It gives you info on the players that interacted with that guy or voted for said guy.
Obviously it gives you info of that guy (since he flipped).

If you no-lynch, you basicly forfeit the day and let scum take the initiative at night.

I think no-lynching should only be used if everybody derps a lot and the lynch of any player would give us no info whatsoever.

On January 04 2012 11:39 gonzaw wrote:



If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed.
If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up.
If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR

I will not try to lynch you for saying something stupid. We all make mistakes. However, I will come down on you with hell-fire if you don't take a stand and argue your case. There is no point trying to ascertain mafia's intentions, it all leads to WIFOM. Read their actions and responses. As you say being wishy-washy is a mafia trait, so don't do it and pick up on people that do.

It is better to be wrong than silent.

On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta.

On January 04 2012 14:06 CatsnHats wrote:


But it's so hard to counteraggressive to the nicest guy in esports! Haha thanks for the advice. Lynching someone is definitely the way to go. Any information gleaned, even at the cost of a townkill, is better than no info at all. I don't have a lot new to add that hasn't been said already, but that's my stance. As for picking who to lynch, I going to reserve judgement until the last few people have started posting.