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TL Mafia XL
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United States720 Posts
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On June 05 2011 15:15 Treadmill wrote: As I said earlier, "we should keep an eye on Freeloader". But that's it. There will certainly be much more conversation before the end of the first day. A few thoughts: There are 8 mafia but do we know how much killing power they have? If 6 normally get 3 kills/night would it be sensible to extrapolate that 8 get 4? How do you know how many mafia there are? I thought role counts are not disclosed. | ||
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On June 06 2011 05:33 supersoft wrote: this list doesn't tell anything about the people on the list... Maybe they're just lurking like I was. You can delete me from that list btw. This list is meant to pressure people into posting. It's meant to highlight the people that are lying low and "lurking". I expect mafia, esp in a game with so many inexperienced users, to try to remain innocuous and not garner much attention on the early game. A townie would not feel as much pressure and wouldn't care about this list. You, however, seem really concerned about getting off this list. You say its too early to judge anyone especially before we get to really know anyone. But how do you expect us to judge you if your posts are meaningless (unless you dont want us to judge you)? How you post and your response to accusations and early votes are the only means we have to go on. Currently your posts as Kurumi states are pure fluff. They tell us nothing about you and seem like you're just trying to just accomplish your post quota without saying anything. | ||
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On June 06 2011 18:06 Pyo wrote: After reading the posts up to now, I am reasonably confident that freeloader is probably a townie and the ambiguity of early accusers and their motivations means that there's not much to be learned from lynching him, although it might be inevitable at this point. Since his post in his defense haven't really been all that constructive anyway it isn't really a big loss, so I'm not gonna fight it. The players that I find annoying are by far Haiku boy and Kurumi. So if ever I'm undecided about who to vote for it'll probably be one of them. I think it is interesting to note all the little 1v1 bickering going on, the most recent example of which is between iGrok and gtrsrs. I think it is reasonable to assume that two mafia wouldn't orchestrate a mini feud this early on, which means that either both are town or only one is town. So combining my last 2 paragraphs, I think I'm gonna have to change my vote to iGrok. If I am to understand correctly, the two people who you find MOST suspicious and in need of lynching are basically the talkers, the ones generating discussion, if a bit rash on Kurumi's end. Im trying to shift through the arguments against iGrok and the number one reason i can come up with is his haikus which you find personally annoying. This is probably one of the most flimsy excuses to lynch someone i have ever read. Your post does not outline any reasonable level of analysis to claim iGrok or Kurumi as scum. Basing your vote on who annoys you the most is by far one the most detrimental ways to approach your vote. Your personal decisions on who to lynch mean little to the rest of the town if you dont back it up well. You should be using your posts to try to persuade the town with logical claims and observations about these players. Bickering though unfortunate is bound to happen with wounded egos. This early I think it's a little premature to call anyone mafia if they are arguing with someone else. And while we are talking about Kurumi or iGrok, people like grush57 are remaining largely ignored. This is the extent of his posts: On June 06 2011 04:21 grush57 wrote: Yea true, I stupidly joined the bandwagon to lynch freeloader from his posts. On June 06 2011 04:12 grush57 wrote: Im not inactive, I just dont feel like anybody can accuse this early. On June 06 2011 09:10 grush57 wrote: Oh, sorry, only checked back a couple pages. Easy one-liner responses. He claims that bandwagoning Freeloader was a stupid decision but has yet to revert his vote. He claims he isn't inactive yet does not post. To me he warrants far more suspicion. | ||
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First of all, I want to strongly advise everyone who voted for freeloader to strongly reconsider their vote. If freeloader was taken out of the equation who would you vote for? why? There are been enough posts that warrant much more suspicious behavior than freeloader's question. I think it's been an easy mafia move to just bandwagon freeloader, feel safe in the numbers, and be able to provide an easy explanation. I'd also think it would be highly prudent if we went into this lynch with some sort of collective strategy. On day 1 there are really only two justifications for a lynch that i can see: 1. Everything related to freeloader (those who voted for him so quickly, those that changed their mind, those that provided a weak/suspicious defense when questioned, and to a MINISCULE degree freeloader himself). Most likely, if we killed everyone who voted for him, perhaps we get one or two mafia members. But right now it seems like the majority of the votes are simply rushing townies (please reconsider). However, pressuring these people into responding may come up with incongruities, anti-town suspicions and actions, and perhaps a reliable person to accuse. 2. The second way to approach the lynch is target the lurkers, the ones with very weak justifications for votes, and those that are overtly defensive when questioned without providing any real defense to allegations. Those that touch base, have a 1 liner quip, and then depart. These have are some people that are very suspicious to me in that regard: Grush57 Supersoft Lafali amazingxkcd gtrsrs (to a lesser extent) Everyone should really reevaluate who they voted for. If the primary reason is aggression, that's simply not enough to go by on. Aggression right now whether it be personal or otherwise can be construed as both town and mafia and is high unreliable differentiating mafia from town. Also, personal annoyances are the LEAST effective means to go by on. Please don't vote like that. I'm curious as to which you deem more effective, the one we should be pursuing because too much chatter has been focused on the first while the second approach (the one i deem with a larger mafia pool) to be less examined. | ||
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Rookie: 5 Freeloader: 4 Treadmill: 2 Drazerk: 2 jimbooo:2 igrok: 2 monsterdrakar: 2 gtrsrs: 2 amazingxkcd: 1 Kurumi: 1 TheAwesomeAll: 1 Can the people who voted monsterDrakar and Drazerk explain themselves? | ||
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On June 07 2011 08:26 supersoft wrote: yes I can explain myself. I judged over monsterDrakar too quick. I am used to the sc2 mafia, where everything has to be very quick and most votes happen to be intentional... Despite of that, I will stick to my vote, since monsterDrakar obviously won't be lynched and I really don't know who to vote for, as I described in my last post. Sorry but that's a terrible reason to vote for someone. You believe, as of now, monsterDrakar is most likely not mafia. Yet you refuse to unvote him. Yes, no one is sure of anything at this point but its simply lazy to refuse to revote based on whats occuring now especially in regards to Rookie. It would also be interesting to hear your read on the other person who voted for monsterDrakar. | ||
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On June 07 2011 10:27 amazingxkcd wrote: which 3? EBWOP: just saw your post, stupid itouch. Anyway, lets take a look at this. You are assuming that i am in league with jackal when i had made an eariler post stating that i was suspicious of him and iGrok together. If i was a scum and so was he, then why would i accuse him? I even tried to make a case against kurumi ( that case still holds) that he is too eager to want a dt check. Whats even worse is that you want to lynch either me, kurumi, or jackal for information. Really? That is quite a mafia statement "hey lets lynch random townsmen so we can lynch others for more information? What about me? Im not trying to draw attention, move along" Now, you haven't made much discoveries and analysis yourself, and you derail me from a basis of "it doesn't sound right". I am keeping my vote on rookie, but if you don't respond to this, i will switch my vote to you. He isn't saying that you are in league with jackal, just that you are taking advantage of the situation caused by jackal. So that invalidates your first paragraph. Information I would say is much more crucial than a small chance of getting mafia day 1. And right now, both you and rookie have about the same chance of being scum. You're really defensive and instead of contributing to town you are just casting suspicion on everyone. Most recently you are now bandwagoning onto Drazerk. | ||
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I really urge you all to consider Impervious' plan. There's no real solid long-term plan if we do lynch Jimbooo no matter what he turns up. If you're voting based purely on suspicious behavior alone, Amazingxkcd has given off no pro-town vibe. His early posts contributed nothing useful and his latter posts are mainly defensive posts against a multitude of other people (i.e Drazerk, alderan, kairo,). Also, why are people still voting for Freeloader..... | ||
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1. This early attempt to bandwagon freeloader is enough reason as of now to safely assume that he is town. 2. Looking through Lafali's posts, the one thing that pops out to me is his early vote for Freeloader and then an hour later he changes his mind and unvotes freeloader. 3. Day 1 voting was defined by two bandwagons: freeloader and rookie44. 4. Now combining, 2 and 3, I think that what's critical is not who voted for Freeloader, but those who unvoted him especially during a time when all the town momentum was focused on bandwagonning Freeloader. Only three additional people unvoted (jimbooo drazerk grush57) before the rookie44 bandwagon even started. Of those three only jimbooo joined the Rookie44 bandwagon. Of those three only jimbooo unvoted without recasting another vote until rookie44. Of those three jimbooo was the quickest to unvote freeloader in the middle of intense freeloader bandwaggoning. Drazerk and grush57 though both suspicious in themselves can attribute their unvotes to the dying momentum of freeloader votes. Though it is interesting to note that they were the last two to unvote freeloader before the next momentum shift when rookie44 is voted (what this means i don't really know) Not quite convinced? Let's look at some of his posts: On June 06 2011 01:08 Jimbooo wrote: I accidentally posted my last post without finishing , sorry. Im not sure if freeloader was TRYING to be suspicious with his last post , but after thinking it through I think he is probably just new. That small amount of evidence got a discussion started , but I think people also voted slightly hastily. It looks very suspicious that so many people voted for freeloader right after he was accused. He states that it's very suspicious that so many people voted for freeloader MINUTES AFTER HE UNVOTES freeloader. He wants to draw suspicion away from himself. And who cares about suspicion? Mafia. On June 05 2011 15:19 Jimbooo wrote: I also at first thought we should keep an eye on freeloader , I don't think he is definitely mafia , but we should keep an eye on him. I DID vote , but I don't think he is CERTAINLY mafia, he is just very suspicious. I feel like we should trust people a little more , because now people feel like they will get accused with every post and town can't function that way. He asks that people should be more trusting yet he contradicts himself saying that freeloader is very suspicious based off of one question. If freeloader is town, it makes sense that a mafia would ask the public scrutiny to remain on freeloader while people like jimbooo are to be "trusted". The rest of his posts do not contribute ANYTHING to the town. His defenses are weak just saying he was too hasty in his votes. And as of now jimbooo is my number one suspect for mafia. My proposal for the night: kill jimbooo and kill one of the "possible mafia trio", namely amazingxkcd. People on my investigate list: kurumi senj grush57 drazerk | ||
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On June 08 2011 00:37 Xedat wrote: I want to remind everyone that it is night, don't post anything too critical or it will influence the mafia's hits. If you are concerned that you might die save your post for the last few minutes before day. Too late for me haha. But honestly better I get hit than a more valuable role. From now on I'm going to be gunning for jimbooo unless there is UNDENIABLE proof that he is town. | ||
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So you're saying that on the very first night, the mafia kills off deMorcef (definitely a pro-town vibe poster) primarily because he has consistently sided with iGrok? Keeping the people who believe in iGrok alive seems much more sensible than killing one off just to provide some "cred". I'm really doubting iGrok is gf if we have to assume the mafia killed off a consistent town supporter of the gf. | ||
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On June 08 2011 23:43 Sprungjeezy wrote: My Analysis of iGrok + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 15:36 iGrok wrote: In the shadows lies A peculiar type of Man Kuze is my name. In this game, I will start all of my posts with haikus. Enjoy ^^ He has plenty of reasons to be a townie. Don't even think about that kind of McCarthy Bullshit this early in the game. Anyone voting this early deserves some measure of suspicion. Also, I am schwasted, so this may not make a lot of sense. (White Russians are the best!) But. If you are new to mafia, welcome. A quick word of advice: Think before you act. Those people who have already voted are acting too hastily. a 40 man game is much more about reasoning than putting pressure on someone. And the only reason you would vote this early is to put pressure on someone. Things to note about this game: Detectives instead of watchers: This gives us hard checks (with a few exceptions) on who is scum/town. Town needs to know this information, and we need to keep it out of the hands of mafia. For new players, this is where crumbing comes in. Crumbing is leaving clues about what you want to say. The best crumbs will be deciphered by us and not by scum. However, crumbs can be used a different way, in that you leave crumbs no one can decipher and then reveal multiple crumbs later. This is good if you are new because often times no one can understand your crumbs anyways since you don't have experience. Vigilantes: Need to not use your shots immediately. You are MUCH more likely to hit a civilian than scum at first, and also more likely to caus confusion. Those are the two most important roles this game. Regarding discussion: Freeloader is probably not scum. He is new and likely inexperienced. However, just to be sure, a cop needs to check him tonight. Which reminds me: If a miller is roleblocked, what does he return to investiagtion? Anyways, many good ideas floating around for a newbie game :p Keep up the good work I believe it is always good to start off the game by knowing who's good, who's new, and who's annoying. Some people read previously played games to get a better read, but as this is a new game, most won't look further than this. A nice long post that defends the very quick accusations against Freeloader625, a pretty neutral post. One of his first posts is to warn people to not bandwagon early on in the game especially with such little evidence. Other than Aril he’s one of the earliest people to defend Freeloader. I would say that’s more than neutral and obviously pro-town behavior. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote: Olol. No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green. O shit, a post without a Haiku but pretty irrelevant at this time. I agree. Irrelevant. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote: Olol. No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green. Another irrelevant post, but continuing to have a presence. Important for people to see him. Insignificant. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 18:14 iGrok wrote: Two threads, Two places Vote in one, not the other Or you may mislead. Just fyi, voting in the Thread and not in the voting thread is considered scummy at higher levels of play. I will of course excuse you since you are new, but I'm trying to help you out here - if you're going to vote, then vote, but make sure you know what you're doing. Make sure you read my post. Also, again with the bullshit McCarthyism - This is VERY anti-town, and if you're a menace to town, promoting anti-town play, its in our best interest to remove you from the game if we have no strong mafia targets. tl;dr: CTFO + Show Spoiler + Chill The Fuck Out Starts to get interesting somewhat. Note he denounces Kurumi's valid post against Jimboo (who I previously considered if he was mafia, but believe he is just a very-almost-too active townie). Also accuses Kurumi of being anti-town. You read this wrong. Kurumi criticizes Treadmill who states that lynching somebody with some evidence of scum is better than lynching someone without any evidence. Yes, he accuses Kurumi as being anti-town but you yourself admit to having some thought of Kurumi being mafia. We can all see iGrok’s reasoning (after all I think all everyone at some point has considered Kurumi as mafia). Kurumi is acting really aggressive, is quick to vote, and is pointing fingers everywhere. Now none of this is conclusive of being mafia, but it is certainly not pro-town behavior which iGrok is pointing out. Nothing scummy about iGrok at this point. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 18:21 iGrok wrote: The more that you yell, The more attention you get. Keep up the noise, Joe [/sarcasm] Even if you are town, and its too early to throw accusations out, you're playing TERRIBLY anti-town. Again, Chill. Again makes Kurumi out to be very anti-town. Yes, he calls out Kurumi again. Is this suspicious? No. iGrok is staying consistent with his warnings to Kurumi that his wild accusations and rude posts only hurt his credibility if he is town. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 18:31 iGrok wrote: No haiku for this, The point is too short for one. Just a simple note Do shit like this, you're going to piss people off. Pissing people off is a good way to die. Dying does not help your team at all (at least in this game). You know this, you've played several games. Don't fuck over the newbies because you want to be obnoxious. As far as your "slips" go: Lafali, from what I can tell, is a newbie who bandwagonned, read my post warning against bandwagons, and unvoted. Treadmill: He said we should wait, and every point of evidence is important no matter how small. Great reason to vote him. Point grew after I wrote the haiku :p Starts getting interesting. He defends Lafali as a nooby and defends Treadmill (who begin to reason as scum lately). Yes he defended lafali but at this early point in the game lafali is not clear mafia. This can go either way depending on which propaganda mill you subscribe to. If you assume he’s town,perhaps he’s gratified that someone listened to his advice about bandwagoning and unvoted. If he is town, lafali can very well look like an unexperienced townie who just voted too early. If you assume he’s mafia, then of course you’ll make the leap from “iGrok defended a member of the mafia” therefore it’s very likely that he is mafia. His defense of lafali is inconclusive at best of whether or not he’s mafia or not. Don’t read too much into it. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 23:54 iGrok wrote: Pay no heed to us Prior warnings of misdeeds. Vote without a post. again, [/sarcasm] Drazerk, you did NOT just read the thread, SEE that people were warned against voting without posting, and then vote without posting. Right? Calls out Drazerk for not posting before voting. Boring. Yes. It’s boring, but it’s important for the town to pressure people who vote without any explanation. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 07:57 iGrok wrote: My Final Haiku: I guess fun is not allowed. Srs Bsns. You, sir, have no sense of fun. So let me get this straight - your reason for voting me is "Thread Derailment" and not wanting to vote for treadmill? You do realize you could just -wait- to vote, right? Honestly, those are some of the worst reasons to vote that I can think of. Particularly since your post is, aside from your "evidence" against me, just a regurgitation of other posts. Post some analysis, and good analysis not just bullshit like the above post. You may be thinking, "Why haven't you (iGrok) posted strong analysis yet then?" And knowng you, and probably kurumi as well, there probably a "Scum!" (or "Rat!") thrown in there. The reason is that last night there was nothing to analyze yet, but I saw that the town was disintegrating really fast and I had to step up to try to stop that from happening. May analysis will come after 24 hours of game time, no sooner or later. I will focus on one person, selected without bias, and attempt to ascertain through their posts what their alignment is. Anyone who remembers me from Experiment Mafia 2, I was Pink2 - You remember my analysis of Blue, and how strong that was. In closing, BE PATIENT. Talk, yes, Discuss, yes. Accuse, especially with as little actual substance has happened so far, no. Again getting into a good towny position. Getting into a good towny position is what a townie wants to do. On June 06 2011 08:14 blackone wrote: Well, posting cute little haikus and being funny can lead to the suspicion that you have some kind of interest in being considered funny and friendly. Also, if you don't agree to that, why will you stop doing that now? It's not like gtrsrs can impose rules on how you have to post. A mildly relevant post now as I am putting together evidence for us to consider if iGrok is scum. iGrok then tells him it was his last haiku. Vain explains that iGrok just wants attention and iGrok thanks him. iGrok points out an edited post to mods. iGrok makes a small tip on quoting. iGrok tells someone not to report to mods but to let us self-moderate. These last several posts aren't exactly worth much, but could serve to make it further clear that he is an experienced player to say the least. CrjNinja posts some good analysis and condemns Lafali and naming Freeloader and Kurumi green. iGrok asks Crj's opinion of himself (of iGrok). Crj says he is an experienced player and says iGrok might be green but wants to wait until he makes any worth while post. All I can really gleam from this is that he’s staying consistent to what’s he’s posted before. And yes, he is using the experience card. Is this necessarily a scummy thing to do? No. It can help him if he’s town OR if he’s mafia. And from our past experience with Jackal, we all realize what a powerful tool a claim to experience can be. So again, this purely depends on which bias one uses to analyze iGrok. BREAK TIME So far we have learned that iGrok first day has been utterly passive and is following his statement that he will not post anything worthwhile until after day 1, but has instead been using his time to get in our good graces by not stepping on any one's shoes as he wants to be liked by everyone. Currently (at the time of the above posts) I am kind of annoyed by him, but he seems like a very good player (even though he hasn't actually posted anything). I don’t agree at all he’s being passive. He’s putting himself out there as being pro-town. Personally I think he fancies himself as the voice of reason amid the chaos of the freeloader bandwaggoning. Nothing wrong with that. Also, the claim that he’s careful not to step on anyone’s shoes is also incorrect. He had no problem rebuking Kurumi early on. Overall, I found him to be consistent with his posts and also pro-town. I can already hear your whispers of “maybe too pro-town”. But again I stress this entirely depends on which bias you take. Maybe he’s pro-town because he is town? /END BREAK iGrok now posts about how he will post a big analysis soon. iGrok explains how redFF isn't actually playing the game. WARNING BIG POST – finally iGrok's big analysis post. This should be fun. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 15:18 iGrok wrote: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/fWwZu.jpg) Its time for some analysis. For Science. EDITED MY OWN SPOILERS SO YOU CAN SKIP THE NOOB GUIDE + Show Spoiler + This post will be long. And split into two parts. The first part will be setup analysis. The second part will be a post-by-post analysis of Kurumi. There will be no tl;dr. Welcome to Mafia ^^. Let's begin. Setup: 40 players. 1/5 are scum. Scum have 4 kp N1, and D1 is rarely a scum lynch (sad but true). However, there are medics and vets, so assume D2: 36 players - 28 Town 8 scum, or .222 scum. Now we're getting somewhere. Because of the scum %, which is slightly high for a large game (large games tend to help scum get lost in the noise), and based on Town traditionally having more PRs anyways, I guarantee tht Town has a greater number of PRs. Probably 150-250%. I'll analyze Scum roles first so we can get a rough estimate of the number of blue roles. 8 Scum. 1 GF. There are definitely not more than 50% PRs on the red team. That would be absurd for a newbie-friendly game. Therefore, 2-3 RBs. 3 RBs is a little high, so I'll guesstimate 2. This leave us with 3 PRs on scum. Blue Roles Detective: In this game, Detectives (Also known as Cops and DTs) check Role in addition to alignment. This makes DT a VERY powerful role. However, there is probably more than 1 - having only one makes the game to easy to be swung with a lucky snipe. Therefore, I'd guess there are 2 DTs. Medics and Vets: Lately, theres been a tendency to display both but only give out one or the other of these roles. In this case, however, I will assume both. Likely 2 Medics (for the same reason as 2 DTs - if one gets sniped thats just bad luck) and 1 Vet. Veterans kind of get their own kind of weighting when it comes to balancing teams. You know it will be useful if town is losing, but it does nothing active to help them. Veterans help to stabilize the game and make it less swing-y, which is exactly what you want for a newbie game. Lastly, Vigilantes. Knowing Meapak, theres at least one, probably 2 Vigilantes. Vigilantes can be the town saviors. Particularly in a game like this, the faster we can whittle down Mafia KP the better off we'll be. Vigis should take note of who presses for and opposes a lynch, and when we see the results, act accordingly - probably NOT before N2 though. Note that I do not count vets toward Power Role balance because they are so weak. Also Vigis only count for 75% of a PR because they can do more harm than good. Role cops, on the other hand, count for 150% of a PR. Yes, they are that strong. Black Roles Traditionally, Black roles are 3rd party, but since there aren't any sks, I'm counting Miller as a black role. Miller is the bane of any cop. Every check you make that comes back Goon is less usefull. You can't confirm that he's anti town (though feel free to pressure them and see if they crack!). Millers count as -50% of a PR to Town. I would be VERY surprised if there were more than 1 Miller in this game, and certainly not more than two. So, in summary: 5 Goons, 2 RBs, 1 GF = 3 PRs 2 DTs, 2 Medics, 1 Vet, 2 Vigis = 6.5 PRs 1 Miller = -.5 PRs Total of 6:3 - Perfect - 200% Is that guaranteed to be accurate? No. But its probably pretty close. Now on to Analysis! Today's subject is Kurumi. The black does not mean I think he's a miller, it means I don't know yet. So, post by post: Manages to insult Freeloader and defend him at the same time. His next move, searching for bandwagonners, is a good idea, although its really not too hard to search through the 6 post long vote thread :p. Nothing to really note here except attitude. This is either a misread or a mislead. I immediately noted 2 things here: the ridiculously aggressive attitude was one. Treadmill is saying here that we need to use every bit of evidence, and that at the moment we had very little but it was enough to start. I might not have completely agreed with Treadmill, but I didn't think he was scum because of it. Kurumi is apparently convinced enough by this post that Treadmill is scum to vote - after he's yelled at others for voting based on little to no evidence. Literally this is what happened: Lafali says "aprudds has a point, but it could mean nothing. Fortunately, its not the end of the world if we fuck up." Kurumi continues his hyper-aggression. Lafali's post meant nothing - he may as well have not posted. Based on this, Kurumi accuses Lafali of being scum.+ Show Spoiler + Granted, it was a useless post - a scummy thing to do with good player meta, but as a newbie Lafali probably felt (s)he should contribute something. This should be pretty self-explanatory. + Show Spoiler [In case its not,] + More hyper-aggression This is actually a very interesting post. As you can see, Kurumi is mis-representing both Lafali and Treadmill. Neither of them "advocate mis-lynches", they simply stated that a mislynch was ok, and even probable. Neither of them are anti-town, and Treadmill is actually playing pro-town. This is a very true post. That is precisely what scum wants. Its important to note that scum also wants to cause as much chaos in the town as possible as well. Just read it. The one super-pro-town thing he's done all game! Catching silent voters is SUPER important, particularly in a large game like this. Pyo calls him out, Kurumi admits to spreading chaos in the town the game before. [green]Pyo asks Kurumi for a list of "experienced players" Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself. Kurumi hasn't been here that long, but he's clearly read up on his mafia. He knows the names of some older players. He is correct in that all discussion is good discussion, but (IMO)there are certain methods of generating it that do no good to town because they cause too much chaos. Still, point in his favor though. Not much to say about this. Slightly pro-town I guess? Kinda obvious stuff, but I'm giving people a pass on obvious stuff this game because its a newbie game and so not everything IS obvious. aprudds (the originator of the whole "Freeloader Debacle") gives a nice, concise analysis of whats gone on in the game, and (in the @Pyo section), explains what his reasoning was for the first accusation. + Show Spoiler [Mini aprudds read] + IMO, it seems that aprudds and Kurumi actually have similar philosophies, its just that aprudds doesn't piss off as many people along the way. This is Kurumi's prior experience. Note that in one of these games he was lynched D1. Vain steps in to defend Treadmill and aprudds. We've been over this - No they don't. Tunnelling is still bad -_-. However, I don't think Kurumi is tunnelling this game. He's just accusing everyone who disagrees with him of being scum. Continuing to prod Silent Voters. Pro-town. Really unexpected. Kurumi points out that DTs shouldn't report on D2 since mafia can stack kills. This is an excellent point - DTs should wait until they have something useful to report before revealing themselves. I don't understand the first half of this post, so I'm ignoring it lol. Asking questions, its been a bit since he last posted an opinion of his own (aside from other people are "Rats"). Nothing really here.+ Show Spoiler [Tiny supersoft read here] + Admitting to lurking and doing nothing but saying 'hey look I'm not lurking' is terrible.  True. And thats the last post he made. It may be time related. That was ~10 hours ago, possibly sleeping. So, what can we take from all this? Kurumi is a very aggressive player known for causing chaos. He has cast suspicion on many people, mostly those who argued with him. He has also thrown in some genuinely Pro-town things into his posting. Its very difficult to make a final call, but... I believe that Kurumi is Scum. In my opinion, his Pro-town points were thrown in at random or very obvious to remove suspicion from him. However, I must take into account that I may have been biased, as well as his pro-town things. Because of this, I do not advocate a Kurumi Lynch D1. Instead, I think that Kurumi should be our prime DT target. Knowledge of his alignment will undoubtedly help us determine who is scum and who is town. GGQ, Jackal, Vain, I'd particularly appreciate it if you would weigh in here. To new players, this is a complete, thorough analysis of a player. You don't have to do things like this. But you'll be a much better player if you do, even if you don't post it (there are times not to, like if you realize someone is a DT or Medic). Go forth and analyze! Now most of this post is directed at Kurumi who I feel is enemies with iGrok at this time, and assuming iGrok is GF, he doesn't want Kurumi to continue tunneling himself so he shifts focus to Kurumi. As iGrok doesn't want to appear suspicious himself he suggests a DT check Kurumi. Some of your points are absurd. He doesn’t want to appear suspicious so he asks a dt check on Kurumi. What… did you want him to ask for a dt check on himself? Let’s break it down. If he’s gf, he would welcome a dt. If he’s town, he knows that he himself is town and knows that utilizing a dt check on himself would be a waste. You assume he accuses Kurumi to put the public scrutiny on Kurumi and off himself. Think about this way. Before he posted this: Kurumi, pyo, gtrsrs are tunneling him. After this is posted: Kurumi, pyo, gtrsrs are still tunneling him. If he wanted to stop the pressure from tunneling, this was not meant to accomplish that. Assume he’s town. He provides a real analysis of someone we’d all like to know better, a high-interest person: Kurumi, probably one the most wild-card player in the game. Also the immediate claims of fishing for blues is bullshit for reasons already stated on other posts. It was just a weak excuse to tunnel someone even further. Now I would like to point out this out “Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself. “ This is what I call true irony. This whole game until now has been iGrok expressing his experience and not stepping on anyone’s toes and making the town does not act hastily in their lynch. He is letting us make the first mistake (with information, not lynches) by not posting anything worth reading (he can't slip anything important if he never posts anything important while we make accusations and force each other to defend ourselves.. I personally thought that the analysis on iGrok was a worthwhile read…. But anyways as I have stated before, an establishment of greater experience will help someone regardless of whether or not he is mafia. If you want to stubborn minded about it and believe iGrok is gf without a doubt, why aren’t also calling out Kurumi who did the same thing. Immediately after this is posted gtrsrs calls iGrok out on still being his prime suspicion even though he provided a long analysis. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 15:40 iGrok wrote: iGrok then asks for a post by post analysis of himself – which until now has been literally 100% white noise and even this analysis is an extremely passive against Kurumi. iGrok now posts that hes asking flamewheel to edit the formatting so he doesn't get in trouble and his posts looks prettier. iGrok then states that his PR formulas aren't 100% accurate, but are generally pretty useful. I think you and I have different definitions of passive. Also you claiming he’s passive is contrary to your argument that iGrok is putting himself out there as a person to be trusted based on experience. Let’s be frank here. iGrok wants gtrsrs to do a post by post analysis himself. Lets construe it as if iGrok is a town. iGrok is confident in his alignment so he is unafraid to ask someone to do an analysis on himself. Also he knows that gtrsrs has pretty much nothing conclusive on him. I suggest everyone read through pyo and gtrsrs’s posts and see exactly where the origin of this tunneling came from. It is lol worthy. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 16:20 iGrok wrote: Basically he calls out gtrsrs on being a noob, even though his accusation against iGrok is pretty accurate. CrjNinja comes in and says he disagrees with his analysis on Kurumi. DO NOT base an argument on accuracy unless there are contradictions in someone’s posts. The better question to ask is “Is this significant?” NO. He is calling him a noob because these “accurate” statements in no way conclusively paint iGrok as mafia. Let’s boil it down to the facts. iGrok makes haikus and he posts what he believes the set-up is. If he is mafia, why let the town know? He can easily tell this information in the mafia chat. He made haikus. Oh noes… it’s so distracting he must be mafia. This is really the flimsiest reason for an accusation to have ever been uttered. + Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On June 06 2011 16:36 iGrok wrote: [QUOTE]On June 06 2011 16:20 CjrNinja wrote: @ iGrok I disagree with your player analysis. I think Kumuri is taking a very pro-town initiative by putting a lot of pressure on inexperienced players. It's a good opportunity to gauge reactions and hopefully pick up on a scum slip if the accused can't handle the pressure ^^ Also, the less attention towards blue roles, the better... last thing town needs is an inexperienced playing letting slip his blue role on day1. Disagreement is fine! I'm a huge fan of actual discussion about things - but someone had to start the analysis, and the little quotes we were getting before are much more annoying to deal with. As I said, I'm not completely certain on Kurumi, but if I had to choose I'd say scum. Thats why I asked for a DT check. Regarding my 'focus on blue roles', which I take you and gtr to mean my Setup Analysis, what I love most about Mafia is the mechanics, and so I'm going to try to work those out as best I can. Since neither mafia nor town knew (or knows now) how many of each role there are, I haven't really done anything. However, with rough, probable numbers, we can work out the best way to assign our blue powers. Blues are (arguably) the most important part of a mafia game - we should try to line up some good actions instead of just hoping for the best. More people become suspicious of him and then gtrsrs posts Again construing it to suit your needs. More people are not becoming suspicious of him. They are disagreeing with his conclusion. There is a difference. iGrok even later welcomes any disagreements. He provided his evidence and of course it won’t be 100% conclusive so there will be some who don’t agree. - - - - - - - - - - - In conclusion, I really want to stress that THIS IS NOT AN OPEN AND SHUT CASE. Lets summarize the points main against iGrok: Claim to experience. Self-importance? His posts try to paint a picture as him being “pro-town” Defends lafali, accuses Kurumi Got super defensive “fishing for blues” I would get defensive too if I got tunneled for stupid reasons. I pointed out the flaw in “fishing for blues”. The only way iGrok is justified as scum is to claim iGrok is godfather. Yes, you have a right to be skeptical if the only means of accusing someone is to claim he is godfather. For those of you bumrushing iGrok as mafia, I urge you to look at it in the point of view of town and you will see it is equally as valid. Overall, I am not saying he couldn’t be godfather but all the evidence is INCONCLUSIVE at best. I don’t even know how all of you are completely convinced of his wrongdoing. We all agree he is being pro-town and trying to assert his experience, but you take this as proof he is godfather when he can just as easily be a townie. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
On June 06 2011 04:34 Pyo wrote: So how common is it for townies to vote for/ lynch day1 people that they just don't like or find annoying? I mean in the face no real evidence for or against anyone is it worth it to eliminate inactive or annoying players? On June 06 2011 18:06 Pyo wrote: After reading the posts up to now, I am reasonably confident that freeloader is probably a townie and the ambiguity of early accusers and their motivations means that there's not much to be learned from lynching him, although it might be inevitable at this point. Since his post in his defense haven't really been all that constructive anyway it isn't really a big loss, so I'm not gonna fight it. The players that I find annoying are by far Haiku boy and Kurumi. So if ever I'm undecided about who to vote for it'll probably be one of them. I think it is interesting to note all the little 1v1 bickering going on, the most recent example of which is between iGrok and gtrsrs. I think it is reasonable to assume that two mafia wouldn't orchestrate a mini feud this early on, which means that either both are town or only one is town. So combining my last 2 paragraphs, I think I'm gonna have to change my vote to iGrok. Ironic isn't it? | ||
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(also no offense to kurumi)
