EPTThis looks like it good be fun,
TL Mafia XXXVII
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LastArgument
United States152 Posts
This looks like it good be fun, | ||
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LastArgument
United States152 Posts
On February 23 2011 15:26 Foolishness wrote: Did anyone else find something odd about the above post? Which post? Gryfs? or the one below it? | ||
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On February 23 2011 15:29 Foolishness wrote: Of course, I giggled inside when you said you didn't want to kill an active player then you voted for one of the top 4 most active people in this game. Gofarman's post. It is odd. I am still a little irked by gryfs before it though. I read the town guide that is here and it seems well, off? It mentions a lot of what we are not supposed to do. | ||
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On February 23 2011 15:23 gryffindor wrote: with 30, i doubt there are 8 5-6 is much more likely, with 6 being more likely, unless they start with roles (which I doubt) due to the mechanics 5 with an SK I would believe would be balanced as well, but i'm seeing 6 and 2.5-3kp, or something like "you may not kill 3 people" as 3 kp is a bit much right now we will learn soon enough. It is also possible they get to pick to be permanent, or nightly. I'm not quite sure on the mechanic. Lets assume it is permanent, and they pick a GF and a role reverser they'd still have 1.5kp which would round up to 2 afaik The best thing to do is to not come out if you're a hatter, for sure If you're a cop, I wouldn't come out unless you have a guilty, or are pressured I wouldn't ever claim as medic, unless someone you protected and saved is up for lynch Veteran is OK to claim, many setups have bulletproofs claiming first Vigilante is OK to claim TOMORROW if you claim who you are going to kill - Don't claim today, as you can't kill tonight As you asked what I found troublesome about this post. as per the town guide found http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=188179 You did what would be as general talking. Rather than being specific with the use of the roles you mention you instead mention generalities. It also a post that lacks emphasis on the fundamental skill in which it has been suggested towns need to play by which is behavioural analysis. This and factoring in your earlier claim makes it seem fairly odd no? | ||
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On February 23 2011 15:50 gryffindor wrote: Not at all. I felt the need to come in and give a good general way to play as each role for us. People who focus on really weird plans are generally scum. See the plan for the ninjas in XXX which was proposed by the Mafia Godfather. It was very similar to what GMarshal did. I don't consider myself having "generally talked" there whatsoever. I was discussing the setup, with what was possible, and coaching more inexperienced players on what works for town, which is generally lacking overall in terms of sense here in teamliquid (except for good players like Foolishness who *always* get hit N1) Have you noticed, how, in my next posts, I list town and scum reads? Is that not behavioral analysis? Am I not currently voting, and, btw, thanks for responding to my QUESTION of you... which is another way to scumhunt... asking questions... sheesh you're joking, right? In your following posts after the one I quoted you only center on GM for a possible red, who is following suggestions found in the link I provided. I also glanced through your posts and you so far have only insinuated that GM as well as mrwiggles. Your list of "reads" is responding to foolishness, but is also a summary of information found in multiple spots within the mafia forum. Most of it is all spoken generalities, rather than specifics. I know I am not very experienced and running purely on what I have read from threads here but based on that it all seems off. | ||
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If he has been active in pm's someone let me know so that my view of him may be changed, but as of right now he seems the least contributing member of the game. ##vote icanflylow | ||
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On February 25 2011 05:06 gryffindor wrote: Note the bolded that is a direct lie -> open voting thread -> see the first vote on GMarshal, in the VERY first vote, from yours truly You are lying. Didn't the mods call you out for lying? if we lynch him for that reason, we would have to lynch you as well =\ | ||
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Icanflylow(now bumatlarge) and LSB. I know LSB has been analyzed by barundar. There is however one post that strikes me as particularly useless made by LSB that should be used as a reason for an obvious lynch. On February 27 2011 04:26 LSB wrote: There are three goals for night kills 1) Take out good players 2) Take out blues 3) Take out active players. Generally TL mafia shoots down all active players until the town kills itself with inactivity. Now, we can devide the people into 4 groups Btw, I define bus as mafia started lynch. Priority 1: Automatic night 1 snipes if possible These players are proven scumhunters LSB Foolishness Priority 2: Active vets These player have quiet a few games under their belt and are pretty active Barundar CubEdIn GMarshal Beneather seRapH chaoser LunarDestiny deconduo why Priority 3: Kill if you think they are blue These players are generally inactive, or easily to bus Coagulation Jackal58 Kenpachi gryffindor ohN Uncatagorized: Newish people, sort them into the three groups as they start playing icemac OriginalName JBright astroorion Gofarman MaxwellE Conversion kevconsim ICanFlyLow Ser Aspi LastArgument Please note, this isn't really indicative of skill. Someone like Jackal58 who is good at finding scum is increadibly easy to bus. On the other hand, people like DocH and Pandain (they aren't playing) are active, but aren't really good at finding scum. And this is all subjective some names I don't recognize, and I made it off of what I remember. Especially Priority 1 This post ranks players in three catagories. 1 being the “top players” 2 being ones who have experience or shown to have it 3 being people who have less experience than 2 4 being new players. However, if you start reading the post more carefully, you will realize it’s a post indicating how the mafia “should” hit people to avoid off the radar. Now, a mafia reading this post now knows how to properly divide hits to maximize the team from dying. It doesn’t directly say how we should be saving those people, or how to analyze them. (note: he makes a short post on “how to use this list” right after but essentially says its useless till day 4-5). This list didn’t provide people who should be dt checked, it didn’t provide a list of who should be medic protected. It instead provided a long post that doesn’t help the town as much as it helps mafia. Why make a post as town that shows activity but barely helps the town at all? This could be a lack of experience on my part, but it surprises me this post was made without further detailing or breaking down of how the town can use the information aside from “bide and wait till people die to pin the reds” Bumatlarge On February 27 2011 10:29 bumatlarge wrote: Well I read into the whole annul thing, and it doesn't seem to be an organized bus. Especially with that little squirming performance, but then dropping it quickly in a manner I'd expect from him as scum. I didn't find much to point out on who was leading the accusations, but it does give me a nice ladelful of confidence for the town. Deconduo is not scum I feel, and mostly everyone behind it is likely not. GMarshal is a bit tricky because he seems a little too apologetic, but I've only played with him as town, and he would tend to get apologetic when he isn't inquisitive. Maybe he's just more confident? Anyway, I think annul is probably the better catches for town to get early. I think town would be better served in pressuring the more reserved since that roster seems fairly slim in this game. I like icemac as a lynch target, and others like him that don't quite cut the bill. They are much easier to tell apart then good townie players that keep their mouths in check but speak when it is right, such as ohn. LSB is silly. This is his second post in the game, he clears one player of suspicion, FoS two players, one of which is responsible for the most pro town idea this game. It isn’t much to go on, but based on all the pages the thread has, the only thing he was able to comment on was the annul lynch? And do generalization FoS on players without anything solid? Seems off to me. | ||
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##vote lsb | ||
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On February 28 2011 04:53 CubEdIn wrote: @ LastArgument: You are missing the fact that not only a mafia could use the list that LSB posted to get town to lynch certain people, like if they kill all but one players in tier 2, he would stick out as a sore thumb and town will most likely turn on him unless he's somehow cleared during the game. But that pay off is later in the game. Read the way its outlined on who to shoot, etc... It doesn't offer much advice to town as of right now to use it. Like adding people to a medic list, or who should be taking detective/cop checks. Possible bomb targets, etc... Rather than using it in such a way to add pressure to players, he instead left it as it was, an outline more useful to mafia then it is to the town. | ||
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On March 01 2011 12:58 gryffindor wrote: the fact that ON was townie (miller) shows he was framed, elsewise his name would be colored in black as seen in nearly all of the other games here showing a miller. The fact his name is in green, and framed, leads me to believe a vigilante hit him. Now, if we look at the numbers for 5 mafia = 2.5kp 2 kills, 1 frame, 2 roleblocks... still not adding up LSB/jackal are guilty why are people voting someone other than them? even WITH a vigilante shot, I'm pretty sure they're guilty, unless the mafia are getting more numerical value than I anticipated. On February 10 2011 15:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Player List 1. Coagulation 2. LSB 3. Barundar 4. CubEdIn 5. Jackal58 6. Kenpachi - Killed Night 2 7. darmousseh - Medic, Night 1 8. annul - Lynched Day 1 9. gryffindor 10. GMarshal 11. Beneather - Killed Night 2 12. icemac - Lynched Day 2 13. OriginalName - Miller, Killed Night 2 14. JBright 15. seRapH 16. ohN 17. astroorion - MOD 18. Foolishness 19. Gofarman 20. 21. kitaman27 - Night 1 22. kevconsim 23. 24. Mr. Wiggles - Cop, Night 1 25. chaoser 26. LunarDestiny 27. Ser Aspi 28. deconduo 29. why 30. LastArgument Possible replacement que. 1. Aidnai 2. Bumatlarge 3. darmousseh This is a closed set up. Mafia KP and blue count are hidden. All roles listed may or may not be used. There are currently 20 players remaining. There are currently ? Townies remaining. There are currently ? Medics remaining. There are currently ? Detectives remaining. There are currently ? Cops remaining. There are currently ? Vigilantes remaining. There are currently ? Mad Hatters remaining. There are currently ? Veterans remaining. There are currently ? Millers remaining. There are currently ? Mafia remaining. There are currently ? Godfather(s) remaining. Current mafia KP Cumulative The way the mafia KP works is that each member represents .5KP while the Godfather is worth 1KP. The current power scheme requires that they sacrifice KP in order to use their power. | ||
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He was wrong about the frame, millers are green in terms of death flips -_- | ||
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On March 01 2011 13:01 GMarshal wrote: @gryff or you know the mod decided to put the name in green? it would not be the first time a mod has made a minor error like that. Its also jumping to this huge assumption off a tiny thing, so I think its best we ask @Mods is there any significance to ON's role being in green rather than black (outside of what his alignment is I mean) read my reply above -_- | ||
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United States152 Posts
##vote Jbright | ||
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One of you guys / mafia failed pretty hard. I took a hit last night. I am now going to begin my massive writeup on who I suspect this game, and I should have it up before bed in a few hours. | ||
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On February 23 2011 13:19 GMarshal wrote: for arguments sake going to create analysis cells, use them for informational analysis (even assuming I were scum there is no way) I could ensure each has a mafia member in it as there isn't enough mafia to go around (I am trying to put at least 1 TL vet in each) as the game progresses and people die we can have new cells form. (also you are free to create your own parallel cells) 1. Coagulation, LSB, gryffindor 2 GMarshal, seRapH, OriginalName 3 Mr. Wiggles, ICanFlyLow, kevconsim 4 Barundar, LastArgument , why 5 darmousseh, Ser Aspi, Kenpachi 6 Gofarman, chaoser, ohN 7 astroorion, CubEdIn, Jackal58 8 Beneather, annul, Conversion 9 icemac, Foolishness, LunarDestiny 10 deconduo, kitaman27, JBright This is just a suggestion, but I think it is a good one, discuss Now, before you all rage at A) bringing this back up B) Telling me I’m flat out wrong There is a reason for mentioning this post. Consider it from this point if you may. Had we followed the advice of GM from here, and only pm’d the people we were partnered with, the game instantly changes completely. Anyone within your own circle who dies and flips a role, any analysis done on you by your own partners, etc… Instantly FoS your group. Two people in it die and your left alive for awhile, again, chances are your red. It built a system of which accountability could be had. Why was someone hit, did they reveal their role, etc… Now, it is possible people would get sniped based on in thread performance, but blind hits on players would be a lot more questionable. It also restricts potential leakage of information. Regardless, it would be frightening for mafia to go up against. If you read the thread right after that annul instantly was against it (whos now dead). Lets see who else appears. On February 23 2011 13:25 LunarDestiny wrote: i don't like this. Lets say that 4 groups are contaminated with mafia. Then mafia will know 40% of the info, that is a lot of info and influence for them to work with. On February 23 2011 13:47 gryffindor wrote: Since the reds can manipulate innocents, frame, role-reverse No, there is no straight Godfather in my opinion I'm also very suspicious of this post: This would get us raped by the role reverser, and is really a scummy idea unvote; ##Vote: GMarshal On February 23 2011 17:26 gryffindor wrote: Easily. It leads to the sharing of information, which the mafia need in this setup to properly use their abilities of role reversing the town into submission, as opposed to straight up kill power. If they know you are a Veteran, they can make you a PGO We don't need cells, we have claiming If you want scumhunting, do it yourself The general plan for a town in a whisper/PM setup is 1) Wait on a confirm 2) Massclaim to the confirmed 3) Profit On February 23 2011 18:51 CubEdIn wrote: 'sup gueyz? Just got to work. So I won't post much now. More to come tonight. I did get to skim through the thread a bit and I must say I love the idea of being placed in a cell with Jackal after what we did in Mafia 36.  But yeah I don't think "cells" are a good idea. If you are sharing sensitive information, mafia may know a great deal of it. If you are not, then they don't really have much use. Using the thread for throwing around ideas is much more useful as it can uncover scum faster in case of a slip. Also, Mafia could do things like killing one/two people out of a cell where there's no mafia, and if they flip blue then town will think that the remaining member(s) have to be mafia. And stuff like that. On February 23 2011 19:21 ohN wrote: 'Just finished catching up My thoughts: Cells are a good idea but GMarshal giving us predetermined groups that he thinks we should work with is pretty scummy. They weren't just like 1-3, 4-6 either, he moved them around to his liking. Not a good candidate for day1 lynch because I don't feel that that alone is enough to incriminate him but definitely FoS on him. I dont see how people think + Show Spoiler + On February 23 2011 12:40 chaoser wrote: Ok, so like Gmarshal said, we shouldn't depend on blues this game. Especially since RoL specifically said this game was to punish us for what happened in Salam. At the same thing, I don't think the mafia powers are all THAT powerful. Let them frame away, that's one less death to worry about. PMs are allowed but PLEASE don't just give out crazy info in them (roleclaim, etc.). The point of town is not to have 1 leader controlling everything but small circles that are separated so that if one goes down, the others can still operate. Let's all work together and not let a few players handle all the work (which always seems to happen). This means contributing pleaseee. Him noting that mafia isn't that powerful is something anybody could point out. Role reversal has huge potential but only if mafia has a confirmed blue. They still have to give up an entire kp to use it so they will not be open to using it without being absolutely sure. Role reversal on a townie does nothing except waste a kp. I'll probably end up voting for someone who hasn't posted anything useful or that guy who thought annul was inactive(lol). These are the major objection posts in relation to the proposed plan. There were a few others who disagreed with it but they are currently dead. Now, of the 3, ohn is the least scummy by post as it’s a FoS, however gryf’s is a downright attack on it, and proceeds to bash the idea. Lunar mentions complaints, then quietly vanishes without ever reappearing. That’s with day 1 getting them on the radar. Lets take a gander of each 1 by 1 LunarDestiny + Show Spoiler + On February 25 2011 06:34 LunarDestiny wrote: I read about the last three pages and found not very strong reasons that Annul is scum. I don't see much scum tell in his vote switch from Chaoser to Gmarshall. Annul did justify his vote on Gmarshall on why his plan is bad. Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions." I played with Annul many times before and it seems that he is always aggressive on day1. XXXV: Accused LSB mafia because he spams and don't contribute much. Merc Mafia: Claimed medic to me (day vig) and planned to have 100% town victory. Survivor Mafia (ongoing): After the quick 3 people alliance, he rallied and formed the counter 5 people alliance to take control of the game. This game compared to other games I played with Annul, I consider that he is playing less aggressive. This post is prime example of day 1 defending of a dead mafia. It soft claim defends annul. He compares the behaviour of 3 games of annul, 1 red, 2 town. In each of the three games he played very similarly except in game 1 as mafia he used bad logic to get someone killed. The link here is between this current game and that game, he was playing much differently from his town norm, revealing him as red. This would easily be seen from the looking from game as town and game as red of annul, but instead he tries to link all 3 games under the same style, when 1 was definitely different. Misrepresenting the facts is something one would do to defend ones teammate. On February 25 2011 07:58 LunarDestiny wrote: Looked over Annul's posts: 1) He posts are generally short and don't have much content to them. I do find Annul saying Gmarshall is mafia based only on his circle thing is not convincing. 2) This is the part I disagree. Annul did what most people will do in this situation. He attacked someone whom he believe is mafia and defended himself when he was in huge danger of being lynched. If he didn't go after someone, ok... since not everyone got a mafia read on day1. And his defense on himself is normal behavior. To determine if he is really mafia, you have to look at the time when he felt pressured and tried to redirect the lynch to another person (Gmarshall in this case) and if there are any support from others. People did pointed out Gmarshall's circle thing is a horrible idea but no one voted for him after Annul's switch. Again he slightly defends annul here by trying to use a wifom defense for annul, while then redirecting to another player. He also mentions how people pointed out how bad the idea of the circles was, when the major objectors were gryff, annul. Seraph posted against it briefly (flipped red), lunar did, and ohn did. Almost no one else was opposed. Reservations possibly had in that the groups created could have been fixed if gm is red. However, when we know two of the main group flipped up red, and one of which is the person lunar is defending you see a pattern. Now keep in mind he was fairly active in day 1. Lets move on to day 2. On February 27 2011 14:44 LunarDestiny wrote: Back. Catchup time... So mafia are targeting experienced players like they always do. People are talking about annul's lynch and there is a bus on annul. First of all, I don't think mafia would sacrifice one of their member to make others more safe. So those who voted annul early or greatly accused him aren't likely to be mafia. Those who jump onto the bandwagon or voted late without giving good reasons should be looked at. Post doesn’t say much other than recap generally what everyone was talking about, fairly useless. On February 28 2011 07:18 LunarDestiny wrote: Barunder wants to lynch LSB and even is willing to go with sacrificing himself first to prove he is not scum. LSB says Barunder's analysis on him read too much on few posts and contain many WIFOMs. --- First if Barunder is scum and wants town LSB dead, he won't be satisfy being lynched first. His posts after he 3 essay sized posts did not follow up with the aggressive natural of the essay sized posts. If he is mafia, he needs to get LSB lynched before he is lynched. Because he is willing to be lynched first, that just defeats the original point of his essay sized posts if he is mafia. LSB did attacked back Barunder. This is pretty standard play and is very like LSB's play. Look back at XXXV when annul accused LSB as scum with shit posts that didn't make much sense, LSB fought back like how he is now. He justified it as putting some pressure back at his accuser and see if he will slip. Barunder did not and again is willing to be lynched first. To summarize, I don't think Barunder is scum. LSB is playing his standard in terms of his responds (not saying his alignment is town). One additional thing to point out is that they really believe the other is scum. Soft defends barunder here making it seem like a mafia wouldn’t do this tactic as it would “defeat” the purpose of it. However since he’s willing to die first would potentially save him from the towns lynch and get lsb killed anyway. Its wifom stuff, but again soft defending a player for no real reason. Post says nothing knew aside from “I believe x is town” and is a summary. On February 28 2011 09:51 LunarDestiny wrote: Ok. First, I'll admit that my post behavior in this game is weird since I am usually a player who tend to post more than other players. My excuse is being busy. You also pointed out that I posted a lot more in XXXV. That game was after Pokemafia. Although I didn't played that game, lurker killed that game far more than other games. So I debated ways to out lurkers. At the end of the day, I also did jump on to the LSB/Annul case there and kind of justify my vote. I had a lot more to debate there. Lastly the pm thing. Here are the whole pm chain I had with Foolishness: I did exactly what you asked. I called Annul out other than tell him to give reason why he changed his vote to see if his reason is logical or not. You said that I didn't want to take a side. I refuse to finalize my vote for a player if I don't reason to believe he is scum (however, I do support in putting pressure vote to get people talking). I explained why i don't think annul is scum. Tell me what other side there are except voting annul. At that time, the other two highest vote players (icemac and icanflylow) have 4 votes and their votes are pretty much lurker/inactive votes. I voted icemac to get him talking. Defense of himself after being accused, in which he said he refused to finalize his vote for a player he didn’t think was scum, then foolishness called him out with On February 28 2011 10:07 LunarDestiny wrote: Wow, that is 100% what I actually said... Yes, I only called annul out. What I tried to do is to ask annul for reason why he switch his lynch and see if his reason is logical. Give me a break dammit, I reply your post after 6 minutes you sent me the pm. I didn't put much thought in my reply. Fault me for not doing what I promised. Where he admits to agreeing with foolishness on what he promised, and what he delivered was the exact opposite. Clear lie. He has a few more posts trying to justify his actions day 1, but does not contribute clearly to day 2 discussion or lynches past this. He starts the day inactive, then proceeds to post about things that give no solid or productive discussion to the game aside from appearing active. He quickly follows that by getting called out for directly lying in the game and admitting he lied. Interesting. Day 3 On March 01 2011 04:42 LunarDestiny wrote: I'll give my take on this... Posting pm for no reason is a bad thing because it will reveal information to mafia. However, there are many circumstances where posting pm is good. For example, look how Foolishness post his pm with me and find that I didn't do what exactly I promised. That generated one point saying why i am mafia. If he is mafia and I town, and edited the pm, I can denied it and there goes 1 mafia of the two. If I am mafia and he town. If I denied the pm and same 1 mafia out of the two. If both are town, I shouldn't lie. If both are mafia, mafia is stupid. Icemac also gave out all pm before he died. It give additional information for town to work with and town can use those to accuse or defend people. Taking those pms into the grave is not as useful. Your case describes that mafia edit the pm and use them for the late game. This situation only works if the other person mafia is editing the pm from is afk and don't claim the pm is edited. This is huge risk from mafia and certainly mafia would take unless they are desperate. Your other case say that 2 or more mafia talk in circles and post pm to make themselves look good. This case stands because it would be hard to prove these pms wrong. Also even revealing one of them mafia doesn't prove that the other is mafia believe it could very well be legit pm between mafia and town. But if we just compare the pro and con of post pm. i find it is beneficial for them to be posted given there is a reason. So I have to agree with deucenuo on this subject and asking you to describe why it is bad to post pm. Also give your reasons why posting pm is bad. (Does the con outweigh the pro?) Big ass long post saying how one shouldn’t lie in pms if one is town. However, he was found to be lying from his intereaction with foolishness. This makes him subject of If I am mafia and he town. If I denied the pm and same 1 mafia out of the two. If both are town, I shouldn't lie. If he was town he would have helped foolishness in the way he promised instead of doing the exact opposite (in fact lunar was annuls staunchest defender day 1). He knew if he denied the pm completely it would give himself up as red, then stated as town he shouldn’t lie, in which he did. Why did he lie? To defend his scum buddy annul. On March 01 2011 13:04 LunarDestiny wrote: This post's purpose is to ask jackal to describe what he meant. If I respond to you now, that would just make my post pointless. I promise you (not going to forget this time), that I will give you an explanation after jackal respond to my post or deuceuo's post relating to this subject. ok? Says he won’t defend himself until jackal answers first? Why would he be so hesitant to defend himself when he has been so happy to defend others all game? On March 01 2011 18:10 LunarDestiny wrote: Again, I have no response to my irregular posting behavior. I usually post a lot in the thread but I tried to cut my spam to minimum in this game. Comparing this game's activeness and aggressive of scumhunting to my previous game (XXXVII) is tricky. First, I was SK in that game who was protown(reason is TL town generally sucks). Also look at my posts that game. I believe a huge portion of them are me trying to scum hunt with clues. I didn't do much analysis that game. I ask any of you to look at my past games (my profile includes them) and compare them to this game. Compare how many analysis there are and how many of the posts are just spams. The second part is the pm thing. I'll describe what happened, Foolishness can disprove me. If you want the pm chain, refer back near end of day 2. -I found out that I received a pm from Foolishness asking me to vote annul to pressure him. The reason of this pressuring is to compare his playing style here to XXXV where he was scum. -That point, I didn't do much research about annul and explained to Foolishness I can't wagon him because I spent most of my post talking about hating bandwagon. However, I DID say this "However, I can help call Annul out by posting how he is playing like he was in XXXV where his postings are similar since they are not logical.". -He gave an apology pm saying he should read a bit of my post before asking. -This is where I screwed up, I did not do what I said about relating my post to call annul up to XXXV. I just look back at the easily post to call annul out which was the little explained vote change and used that to call him out. -There was no reminder from Foolishness that I didn't do exactly what I said and I quickly forget about it. It is not what I don't want to do. If he give another pm me about I didn't talk XXXV and annul's behavior, I would write another post calling annul out. Man if you guys think that is scum-like, I have nothing to say. Entire defense of WIFOM. If ones defense is purely that, there is the face of their guilt. It just depends if people will eat the block of text and move on. On March 01 2011 19:47 LunarDestiny wrote: First of all, the pm thing I had is with Foolishness and I did not say his posting of the pm to call me out a bad thing. I am fine with it and glad to explain it. Now I ask you to give reason why you think posting pm is bad. To restate my question, give your reasons why posting pm is bad. Does the con outweigh the pro? (find my counter arguments from my post in the pm chain). This is just a simple question. More WIFOM. Not solid defense. On March 02 2011 14:40 LunarDestiny wrote: Took out the damn image... We'll going to have a difference of opinion here. You find it pointless to discuss and I also start to find it bothersome. Gryffindor, in a couple of post above, pretty much responded for you... He described many situations and came up with a conclusion that posting pms is generally bad. His next sentence states it depend on how it was used. This is the part I most agreed with. I will reiterate again that if there should be a reason why the pm is being posted: contradiction found, being lynched, role fishing detected, etc. Your center point was that end game pm posting will screw town up. Again, I find your statement too restricted. Yes, if it is at the point of lynch wrong and lose AND people start popping pms which is powerful enough to demand a lynch, then it will be damn suspicious. I don't remember this happening in the games I played but it could happen and screw town open. If mafia want to guild a mislynch, most of the time they'll just claim dt (ex. XXXVI:bumatlarge->me, insane: Pandain->Kenpachi). ---------------------------------------------------- Response to Ser Aspi: I did that post because I greatly disagree with jackal's attitude towards posting pms. Pretty much every mafia game, there will be someone posting pms and nobody was ever against that (at least that is what I remembered). I seen players posting pms to show alignments after someone from the pm circle dies and I like that. One other reason is depending on Jackal's response, I can look at his previous games and look at where he was town and was he ever impressed or benefited from pm being posted. From the recent games where jackal and I were in where town was screwed by pm posting. I might have missed them (don't axe me in games I die early because I don't closely follow the game after I die...), but I am pretty sure there were none. Summarizes posts made from Gryffindor. Responds to ser aspi with WIFOM of why he was waiting on jackals response, but doesn’t actually do the analysis in which he was asked to do. Why would he not do analysis if he is town? What better way to clear yourself. On March 03 2011 05:22 LunarDestiny wrote: So we have three potential lynch targets: Jbright, Seraph, LSB. Jbright who played 1 game on TL don't have much I can use past history that I can based off of. Ser Aspi did compared Jbright's town play in Orpah and found contradictions. But compared to... Seraph who Foolishness did an analysis on, Seraph's lynch is reasoned better. I know that some of the reasons are kind of similar to the reason of my lynch (posting behavior/activeness)... Foolishness's conclusion of Seraph: I do agree that I remember Seraph as someone who is not afraid to speak his mind and it does seem weird in this game where his posts are pretty calm. I also agree that mafia would prefer to watch and not to slip if they are not forced to post. The other reason Foolishness brought up is Seraph was "bored" after the game started and even if he hasn't gotten a blue role as town, he should be excited for this game after town got 1 mafia lynched on day1. I skim through Seraph's post and found many of his earlier posts are short/one liner. But he did say on his post "498" that he wasted his 6666 post and way later on his post "644," he indicated that he is playing a lot in pm land. If that is the case, then he wasn't "bored" and was more active than what it seemed on the thread. I want to ask if people can justify that they were having pm conversation with Seraph. Although if Seraph is mafia, other mafia can lie and justify this reason but if enough people justify for Seraph, I doubt they are all mafia. This can also be used later on to group people together. The last person is LSB. The first reason is he surviving after two night. The second night is more suspicious since a medic was killed a night before. I understand this is not a strong reason but should take into consideration later on because I do find it weird that mafia is not trying to gun down the 1 of the 2 top player. The next reason is the KP contradiction: It doesn't make sense at all. No vig claimed yet and there is no incentive for not claiming. They already shot and will only act as vanilla townie. The benefit of justifying the KP issue is way more than absorbing a kill as vanilla townie. People already mentioned that the KP do not adds up. I find it especially weird on day on night 1, there were 3 deaths. On night 2, there were 3 deaths (none claimed by vig) and 2 roleblock claims. Therefore if the roleblock claims are true, it indicates that mafia have more than 2.5 KP. I have no idea why won't mafia spend the extra KP on the extra kill. Also what happened that the missing KP on night 1 if mafia do have so many KPs. Again, not using these KP on extra kill but on other powers is a waste. I want to point out that Jackal also claimed being roleblocked. LSB shouldn't be voted only because of this KP contradiction It just doesn't make sense at all and I hope an explanation can be made. If we were able to justify the case, I would like to fall back to voting Seraph. Those who pmed with Seraph, please claimed. You don't have to post the pms if you don't want to, but at least describe how much you interacted with Seraph. Summarizing the game day to this point. Anyone reading the thread would actually know how it reached this point. Instead of offering anything insightful he instead just recaps the day. So far pretty useless. On March 03 2011 09:41 LunarDestiny wrote: Well, we haven't reach an answer to the KP contradiction case and I am not convinced LSB is scum. I would prefer to wait one more night to have a greater grasp of mafia's KP. If LSB is town, that alone adds pressure to mafia. Also, I don't want to divert the lynch of Jbright and Seraph. I'll fall back to voting Seraph. ##VOTE: Seraph Jumps on a bandwagon that flipped a red, still no providing any insightful posting or analysis of his own. On March 03 2011 09:50 LunarDestiny wrote: Also, I don't find Jbright's case stronger than Seraph. Jbright's case was based on orpah and this game where Seraph was based on of three games. Jbright losing his will to play is what expected from newer players. Yes, mafia can also use this as excuse to lurk. But when a newer player is pressured and accused, it is reasonable that they lose their will to play (I did it on my third game where for the first time, a huge post was thrown at me). I do have a reason that Jbright is a better lynch and I don't think they were mentioned. Seraph's posts were better and more analyzable. On the other hand, Jbright pretty much given up. Mentions he would prefer to have jbright killed over seraph (seraph flipped red) this is a subtle defense but believe since a player gave up the other should be killed. Defends the person he votes for, odd behaviour. If you think someone is red you should be pushing them, or at least analyzing them (he fails to provide his reason for why he finds jbright more likely to be red than seraph). Summary of Lunars posting all game is that of a player who has defended mafia all game, has yet to solidly contribute to the game. There has been no analysis, just defense of players (two of which red), a wall of wifom defense and general lack of real activity. For someone who says they are town, would they not be contributing more heavily rather than appearing to contribute? It is clear that through the blatent acts of defending mafia and lack of real contribution that he is red. Lynch him. Ohn + Show Spoiler + Day 1 On February 23 2011 19:21 ohN wrote: 'Just finished catching up My thoughts: Cells are a good idea but GMarshal giving us predetermined groups that he thinks we should work with is pretty scummy. They weren't just like 1-3, 4-6 either, he moved them around to his liking. Not a good candidate for day1 lynch because I don't feel that that alone is enough to incriminate him but definitely FoS on him. I dont see how people think + Show Spoiler + On February 23 2011 12:40 chaoser wrote: Ok, so like Gmarshal said, we shouldn't depend on blues this game. Especially since RoL specifically said this game was to punish us for what happened in Salam. At the same thing, I don't think the mafia powers are all THAT powerful. Let them frame away, that's one less death to worry about. PMs are allowed but PLEASE don't just give out crazy info in them (roleclaim, etc.). The point of town is not to have 1 leader controlling everything but small circles that are separated so that if one goes down, the others can still operate. Let's all work together and not let a few players handle all the work (which always seems to happen). This means contributing pleaseee. Him noting that mafia isn't that powerful is something anybody could point out. Role reversal has huge potential but only if mafia has a confirmed blue. They still have to give up an entire kp to use it so they will not be open to using it without being absolutely sure. Role reversal on a townie does nothing except waste a kp. I'll probably end up voting for someone who hasn't posted anything useful or that guy who thought annul was inactive(lol). On February 23 2011 19:23 ohN wrote: Oh yeah and gryff claiming vet? wtf why would you do that? On February 25 2011 10:26 ohN wrote: Icemac is probably town. Bad d1 lynch target. Looks more like a bad/aggressive player than scum. I'm still not convinced annul is a good lynch. Annul's not pushing GM that hard, he simply pointed out that GM had a bad idea and is calling him out on it. I don't think he ever said "GM is clear mafia." GM DID propose an arguably terrible plan; how come nobody else is calling him out for that? Annul's not looking any more scum than GM here in my eyes. Barundar's accusation of Jackal is definitely not convincing but it's not utter crap either. It's an interesting point to look back to in the near future. Slight FoS on Jackal imo. And finally, why is gryff not getting lynched? Blatant lie here. Wait what. ##Vote: gryffindor On February 26 2011 08:46 ohN wrote: Woah annul was mafia? o.O Somehow, I didn't expect that... I'll put in more analysis once day2 hits, doesn't seem worth it to type up my thoughts at the moment when day2 results could just turn them all sideways. This is all from day 1. He posts suspicion on Gryff based on the sketchiness of gryff’s play over day 1, as well as votes for him. However, in the full day 1 period he posted 4 times. Of these posts they seem pro townish, as he shows that when he appears he can post really good detail. He however disagrees with gm’s plan in execution not so much theory. But as it was something he didn’t attempt to fix he lands here. Day 2 On February 28 2011 09:35 ohN wrote: Wow, a lot happened when I was gone. I still don't understand why we're voting icemac. He doesn't look scummy at all. Like, yeah, he posted about 0 analysis and opinion but that holds true for a lot of other people too. 'Just looks like a scapegoat that mafia are trying to redirect lynches too. Between LSB and Barundar I doubt either of them are mafia. If one of them is, it's LSB. Can't really say why I think that and there's so many pages that I just read but yeah, that's my take on the situation. So, who to vote for.. I still think gryff is suspicious, although that might just be because of his weird playstyle. I'd rather have gryff lynched than icemac to be honest. Reading through, Foolishness's post like 2-3 above this has a good point and since I don't think LSB/Barundar/icemac are mafia, there goes my vote. ##Vote: LunarDestiny That is all he posts for day 2. Literally 1 post. He posts he would rather see gryff die but rather than make another case for him as a target he hops onto a bandwagon. Then proceedes to vanish for the day. He reappears Day 3 On March 03 2011 11:43 ohN wrote: Oh man i was so busy these past few days and i completely forgot i was playing. D: ##Vote: ohN Sorry, I'll catch up asap. Since that post he has once again vanished and has yet to post. He has shown since day 1 that rather than actually playing the game he has instead opted to lurk his way through the game. One does not have to post frequently if their posts are decently made however he has shown a general lack of effort past day 1 to even make a post rather than feigning activity. As he had yet to do any solid analysis, or even keep attention of detail of the game it leads me to believe he is red. Why? Because he displayed what he is capable of day 1, but has since vanished and yet to carry on with the ability he has already shown. Why would he stop analyzing? Why would he stop contributing? Possibly because the more active a mafia has been so far the faster they have been caught? With all this done, I will build a case for gryff later, but this took me forever to type so I am going to bed. | ||
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Chaoser, give it up should have realized offing me to prove lsb was the way to go with this, not the other way around. For those defending chaoser and critisizing LSB. You all should know in a case like the one we just experienced you would be better off killing the A) less useful town member B) The one who's death confirms both parties Factor in the entire issue still going with "kill lsb" even after the entire situation was revealed, as well as the medic who prot'd lsb stepping forward is even more wtf on you guys. Bartunder and chaoser just showed their colours. Factor in the analysis I did earlier on ohn + his blind bandwagon vote on lsb its pretty clear he's red as well. We just net 3 in one day. Woot. ##vote chaoser | ||
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On March 06 2011 11:19 GMarshal wrote: except B is patently false. as I proved in my post a couple pages back Your "proof" to disprove it would be to assume mafia would take the less likely route of trying to confirm 1 player and potentially losing them whereas mafia could easily have used me as a simple bus target instead letting town off another townsmen. Is it possible they could attempt to fake vig? yes. Is it likely to do this on a target geared to be off'd by town? Less likely. To prove my point false you would have had to account for all possibilities and opt to decide your point was more likely. However, for a high cost plan that could potentially backfire, the mafia would have gained more from bussing me, or attempting what you suggested on a target less likely to draw "wtf" from everyone playing. | ||
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On March 06 2011 12:27 Jackal58 wrote: If by worked like a charm you mean "Jackal put his dick on the line waiting for me to fucking do something" ya it worked like a charm.  apparently chaoser liked the looks of that dick! >.> | ||
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