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Liquibet desicion-making... thoughts?? :)

Forum Index > SC2 General
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1 2 Next All
killerkoala
Profile Joined October 2010
518 Posts
November 29 2010 16:03 GMT
#1
Ok so here we go! :> My goal here is to try and discuss what everyone thinks about how to vote and make their best rank each season.

Some of us(like me ) struggle deciding whom to vote for in our attempts to reach the top of the ranks! My current goal is top 500... I'm pretty far from that right now and might have to wait till next season. :o

That said... How do you guys and gals decide how you will vote?

Are your choices based on top notch names like Fruitdealer, TLO, Ret, IdrA, etc.. and if you see those names just auto-pick them and attempt to remain a true fan?

Do you base choices on the race the players are using and the current game-state? Recent performances? Coin-flip? Hair-style? Best jacket removal()? Maps that are scheduled to play?

Personally, I have usually been voting for Zerg when I feel that they have a decent chance. Another thing I do is to try and listen to commentators thoughts because they have to keep on the pulse of how things are going during any given time(though sometimes i wonder about tastosis... )

LB is very fun for many of us... so what choices do you make in your efforts to reach the top!

Panda Bear guy is PISSED
SmoKim
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark10305 Posts
November 29 2010 16:06 GMT
#2
my tactic is is quite simple: vote for the underdog/against the favorite for better score, and vote against the people i want to win(as small comfort if my idols looses)

but from time to time i just vote from who i think should win, but mostly its the above scenario
"LOL I have 202 supply right now (3 minutes later)..."LOL NOW I HAVE 220 SUPPLY SUP?!?!?" - Mondragon
killerkoala
Profile Joined October 2010
518 Posts
November 29 2010 16:17 GMT
#3
Lol! Maybe I should try that myself, seeing as I went 1/4 this morning on GSL bets.

Panda Bear guy is PISSED
DizzyDrone
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands629 Posts
November 29 2010 16:20 GMT
#4
mostly just going by gut feeling, choosing people I know / who I know have done well in large tournaments.
Igakusei
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States610 Posts
November 29 2010 16:22 GMT
#5
I usually vote for the favorite if it's pretty one-sided, playing safely through the Ro64/Ro32. To end up near the very top through, you pretty much just have to luck out from the quarter-finals on because each game is worth so many points. Voting for the favorite in every case will get you in the top half, but there will probably be thousands of other players ahead of you.

A good liquibetter is certainly going to take things like maps and individual strengths and weaknesses into account, because picking which underdogs are going to win is essential. You obviously can't just pick all the underdogs, just like you can't pick all the favorites.

Ultimately I think it kinda just comes down to a crapshoot at the end, though.
Pekkz
Profile Joined June 2009
Norway1505 Posts
November 29 2010 16:25 GMT
#6
You watch map pool, and think of the matchup on those maps and then consider the skill of the players Was top 50 awhile until this last round where Ret and NewDawn lost=[
Chill
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
Calgary25997 Posts
November 29 2010 16:29 GMT
#7
This thread has Chill's blessing.
Moderator
killerkoala
Profile Joined October 2010
518 Posts
November 29 2010 16:31 GMT
#8
On November 30 2010 01:22 Igakusei wrote:
I usually vote for the favorite if it's pretty one-sided, playing safely through the Ro64/Ro32. To end up near the very top through, you pretty much just have to luck out from the quarter-finals on because each game is worth so many points. Voting for the favorite in every case will get you in the top half, but there will probably be thousands of other players ahead of you.

A good liquibetter is certainly going to take things like maps and individual strengths and weaknesses into account, because picking which underdogs are going to win is essential. You obviously can't just pick all the underdogs, just like you can't pick all the favorites.

Ultimately I think it kinda just comes down to a crapshoot at the end, though.


Hmm you are right. I suppose a really good way is to know lots and lots about each player, like you say. Some choices are nail-biters for me though! Like say last seasons finals. I sat here for 5 minutes trying to decide because they are such good players. In the end I think i chose wrongly. Go figure!

I think it would be really neat if there was a 'double down' kind of button. Like say i choose player X and normal is worth 4 points. But i could choose to double the points i could win and get 8. But if i lost, i would lose 8 points. That's one thing I'd really really like to see(not sure how hard/feasable something like this would be to add, though).... There should be a 'penalty' for choosing wrongly aside from just getting 0 points if we are incorrect. That would add more excitement, in my opinion anyway! =)
Panda Bear guy is PISSED
killerdog
Profile Joined February 2010
Denmark6522 Posts
November 29 2010 16:34 GMT
#9
my thought process goes (prioritised in this order)
vote for foriegner,
if no forigner
vote for legend (boxer,nada, ppl like that)
if no legend
vote for best player
if i dont know,
vote for player with picture.

if i still dont know, then i guess
mind you, im currently in a "5 vote losing streak" so take this advice with a grain of salt.
Craton
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States17281 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-11-29 16:44:52
November 29 2010 16:41 GMT
#10
Ro64 is a crapshoot. You basically pick pictures over nonpictures unless the pictured person has a bad record or struggled against an inferior opponent. Then you compare matchups, maps, and quality of opponent beaten and lost to. You can also compare playstyles, but that's a lot harder to do.

If someone is 4-3 TvZ but the opponent's ZvT is 10-1, you're probably gonna go with the Z. If a guy is 4-2 overall, but he beat two really bad opponents and then lost to a mediocre one while another guy is 1-2 but lost to a superior opponent and played close games the whole time, you might lean toward the second guy. Figuring out which maps favor which race or player's style is the next step.

I also weight by match-ups. In my opinion Protoss is currently underpowered, which (if true) also means that the Protoss who have advanced are likely a better average player than a T or Z counterpart. Now that doesn't always hold true, since some of the P who made it to Ro64 played terribly, but at the same time you've got a few others who have played brilliantly. You don't have to agree with my balance presumptions; it's part of my personal criterion. It's one of those things that lends itself well to tie-breaking close-calls, especially in early rounds with barely-known players.

Be careful not to get caught up in the hero bias or foreigner bias.
twitch.tv/cratonz
Stenstyren
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Sweden619 Posts
November 29 2010 16:43 GMT
#11
It's getting harder and harder. In the beginning of the GSL every player who was not good did not have a photo of them so I just put my vote for whoever had a photo.

Now I'm mostly picking whoever I know the best, I don't follow the GSL but I still maintain 67% right guesses.
SmoKim
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark10305 Posts
November 29 2010 16:50 GMT
#12
On November 30 2010 01:17 killerkoala wrote:
Lol! Maybe I should try that myself, seeing as I went 1/4 this morning on GSL bets.



Hottest Voting Streak 5 Correct votes in a row

see it this way: its a win win situation, either A: the ones you hope/thought/deserves won, OR you won a liquidbet =) works wonders

it only gets difficult when one you like, that you think is better AND should win plays, caus then its a bit more iffy
"LOL I have 202 supply right now (3 minutes later)..."LOL NOW I HAVE 220 SUPPLY SUP?!?!?" - Mondragon
Dust14
Profile Joined March 2010
Belgium490 Posts
November 29 2010 16:52 GMT
#13
Let's link Motbob's guide to winning: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=171288
rally_point
Profile Joined April 2009
Canada458 Posts
November 29 2010 16:52 GMT
#14
Here are my voting strategies,

- I almost always vote for foreigners, rising stars, etc

- If its a player I've heard of vs a player I've never heard of, vote for player I've heard of (this is hard sometimes because people are changing their names & their IDs dont always match their previous player names ie. foxer vs Optimus vs Marine king)

- If there is a person with a picture vs someone without a picture, vote for the pictured player (may not be the best strategy, but my reasoning is that someone with a picture has a more established position in the scene)

- In Ro8 and onwards, watch the games of the players in the previous round and try to guess which style will be prominent. In Ro32, even though I may have watched all of the Ro64, it's too much work to go back and re-watch all the games.

- I try to vote for Brotoss (I would really like to see more of them even though I am a Z)

I actually have no bias for sc1 legends. I will only vote for them if I think they'll win using the above system. No offense to them or anything... but yeah it's a new game buddy
Ornithorynquez
Profile Joined August 2009
430 Posts
November 29 2010 16:54 GMT
#15
Well, to be honest i'm not comfy with the GSL bets, often it's hard to rely on a player with a glorious past, just because they are kind of "old" (no offense.. ;() or just because they were - unfortunately - second class BW pros. But they are more experienced (hundreds of TV games, understanding of the game, etc..)

On the other hand newcomers are have a fresh look on the game, some of them are creative, aggressive, talented, and the new scene makes them very ambitious. But they're kinda unknown, less experienced and it's hard to trust a new face against some notorious player.

For me the game is too young and more versatile than BW, it's so hard to know if X best's match-up is PvZ TvT or whatever, everyone can from a GSL to an other rock bottom to top.

So my votes are 50% of the time randoms
I have to return some videotapes.
killerkoala
Profile Joined October 2010
518 Posts
November 29 2010 16:55 GMT
#16
On November 30 2010 01:41 Craton wrote:
Be careful not to get caught up in the hero bias or foreigner bias.


This has bitten me several times! It's sad, too, to just sit there and watch in disbelief as your LB dreams go right down the drain!

I agree with you about playstyle choices being harder. There are so many variables to consider!

One thing I do know is that TvP games are hard for me to decide for some reason. It could be since I only play zerg that causes me to be unsure about those 2 races. I don't know!

I do find it interesting that people successfully use picture vs no picture to win points though. :o

This thread has Chill's blessing.




Panda Bear guy is PISSED
iammaru
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada38 Posts
November 29 2010 16:59 GMT
#17
I vote for whomever has the shorter name.
"Teamliquid: Experts in demotivation"
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
November 29 2010 17:02 GMT
#18
Actually... I'm the current liquibet leader and here's my view on things.

I actually do NOT follow the GSL. I don't have a ticket and I've never caught up on missed games via youtube or streams. I think I've only watched a few games live because Pandain gave me a link to a streamer.

Here's my strategy:
TvT / PvP / ZvZ - If you think you recognize one of the names, vote for him. Otherwise, random.
ZvP - If you think you recognize the Zerg, vote for him. Otherwise vote Protoss.
TvP - Vote Terran.
TvZ - Vote Terran.

Every now and then if you feel like it, randomly choose a player, just to see what happens.

If you follow these simple set of rules, then you too can grow up to be the President. I mean, the Liquibet leader.
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
TehForce
Profile Joined July 2010
1072 Posts
November 29 2010 17:02 GMT
#19
i was top 30 in gsl season2
my round1 votes were based on who has the cooler name
then watching every match
voting round2 based on performance in round 1
then watching every match
voting round3 based on performance in round 2
etc.

Now i'm only Top 330 because i badly misjudged round2: i didn't look for the map sets. i will now surely check them before betting. Who could have known that gom loves to place 2-3 antizerg maps in all of the zerg matchups.
NesTea <3
killerkoala
Profile Joined October 2010
518 Posts
November 29 2010 17:09 GMT
#20
Ohhhh more great replies! /yay \o/

The leader is even making an appearance!

Humm i have to run some errands but keep chatting for sure! I love these kinds of discussions :D:D

PS TehForce, i also hope they do something about the map situation but i think we have to wait for season 4 probably =(

But! back on topic... I have never seen this mentioned but; is there stuff in addition to special icons for doing well? I would like to win just for that! But am curious at the same time lol.
Panda Bear guy is PISSED
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