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motbob
United States12546 Posts
After I won Liquibet season 1, someone sent me a PM asking for tips on winning. I sent him a long PM back, and I feel like it's only fair to reproduce and expand upon that PM here. This is a highly advanced type of blog: a brag/useful blog hybrid.
How do I win Liquibet?
The most important thing to remember is that points don't matter in Liquibet nearly as much as rank matters in Liquibet.
A correct bet that propels you up to the top of the Liquibet rankings is much more valuable than a correct bet that leaves you in the same position you were before relative to other people. Predicting that IntoTheRainbow will lose is much more valuable than predicting LiberoPrime will lose.
If you want to maximize the EV of your final score, betting on who you think will win every time is a fine strategy. However, if you want to be #1 on the rankings at the end of the season, you're often going to have to bet on people who you think have less than a 50% chance of winning.
Let me explain. In a given Liquibet season, there are going to be upwards of 7000 people competing from beginning to end. When people make a decision about who to vote for, they draw from the same sources: articles, past VODs, Blizzard rank, etc. No one has hidden knowledge on who will win the next match.
What this means is that, somewhere out there on Team Liquid, there is someone with roughly the same predictions as you as to who will win their games. In fact, if you put a lot of time into watching SC2, there are likely a LOT of people with the same predictions as you.
You need to separate yourself from those people in some way. Taking risks is that way.
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/S97n9.jpg)
FUCK, I saved as a .jpeg
In the above graph, you are a well-educated watcher of SC2. You know a lot about the game.
In strategy A, you bet on who you think will win every time. At the end of the season, you'll likely have a pretty high score, and you'll probably be in the top 1000 or so players. But you have very little chance of being #1. In fact, your chance is almost nonexistent.
If you follow strategy B, you are taking a lot of risks. Your score at the end of the season might be garbage. But it also might be high enough to net you #1.
Here's an example of a smart risk to take: Fruitdealer vs BoxeR[arnc] last season. The TL vote was almost 100% Fruitdealer, a fact that was easily predictable, given that FD was GSL 1 champ and the fact that no one knew who BoxeR was at the time.
Yet BoxeR was near the top of the Korean ladder for a long time, and Fruitdealer hadn't really ever faced a Terran who played really well. Surely the chance of BoxeR winning could be predicted to be a lot closer to 50% than 1%. So the right move would have been to bet on Boxer and hope to move way up in the Liquibet rankings.
To sum up: here's the formula to winning Liquibet.
1. Take calculated chances early and have most of them hit.
2. If you're ahead at the quarterfinals stage, bet on who you think will win.
3. If you're behind at the quarterfinals stage, take crazy chances.
4. Get all your bets at the quarterfinals stage and above correct.
These 4 steps are almost impossible to get right. But how else are you going to beat over 7000 competitors? Liquibet involves a lot of chance. I'm unbelievably lucky to have won last season.
Hope this helps.
  
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Whoah! I'm gonna win LB now ^_^ thanks.
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I'm still convinced you made a deal with the mods to be allowed to cheat in Liquibets, in exchange for your soul.
Nice guide, though. Very informative.
EDIT: WTF A STALKER ICON??
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9071 Posts
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Yeah I'm confused at your lack of icon, liquibet is hard to win yo!
Edit: Misread, my mind just assumed you meant broodwar liquibet season 1.
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Motbob, this is really helpful, and makes perfect sense. I recently made a risky bet that paid off 
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Thanks. I was indeed wondering what your Liquibet-strategy was. This makes a lot of sense.
However, I like to use Strategy A. I think it's much more fun to see how well I can predict the results, even if it didn't lead to high rank.
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Nice stalker icon wtf, I want one!
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lol icon!
I like how we immediately focused on that icon. >.> I think I'm getting used to just looking at it.
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when i first glanced through this thread, something seems wrong somewhere, i cant detect where is it.. until when ppl mentioned the stalker icon.. Omg! SC2 icons now! if only i can be a baneling =D
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303 9 motbob
more like how to not win liquibet!
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apparently we're switching over to sc2 icons 1 at a time
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It's similar to how i play LB1, except with less risk, since there are so many more statistics given for BW its easier to pick them.
Basically I will look at names, matchup history in terms of race, individual performances in the recent 10-15 games overall as well as in that matchup, and who they have beaten/lost to. Then I check the map they'replaying on and the race matchup history on the map, and then after all that I will factor in the risk I need to take in order to move up. Calculated risk.
but seriously, stalker icon is fucking epic wow
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Whoever did your stalker didn't make it yellow enough, you should tell them to fix it.
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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
Meh, I'm not a fan of that stalker icon for some reason.
Btw, it's usually a good thing to bet against Liquid players, just like Haypro last night.
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And so, with this, you will never win liquibet again. No one ever escapes the curse 
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On November 24 2010 00:17 Roffles wrote:
Meh, I'm not a fan of that stalker icon for some reason.
Btw, it's usually a good thing to bet against Liquid players, just like Haypro last night.
I think you're right :<
I already voted for everyone in ro64. But will probably vote against a huge odd in ro32 onwards.
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Hyrule19252 Posts
On a completely unrelated note....you have a Stalker?
On a related note, now that everyone knows, if everyone tries this, won't it balance out and thus be an invalid strategy?
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On November 24 2010 00:35 tofucake wrote:
On a completely unrelated note....you have a Stalker?
On a related note, now that everyone knows, if everyone tries this, won't it balance out and thus be an invalid strategy?
Even if everyone does it, it's still the best strategy.
In fact, as more people do strategy B, strategy A becomes worse and worse.
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EPT
