EPTI think the Stalker icon looks pretty cool, but personally I wanna be a Lurker forever.
How to win Liquibet - Page 3
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Dromar
United States2145 Posts
I think the Stalker icon looks pretty cool, but personally I wanna be a Lurker forever. | ||
infinitestory
United States4053 Posts
Say there's a 1 point bet of player X versus player Y and player X has probability p > 0.5 to win. If I bet on X and my clone bets on Y, then my expected point gain is p and my clone's expected point gain is 1-p. So the point differential between our gains is 2p-1 in my favor, which is guaranteed to be positive. So how does he have a better chance of winning Liquibet? >_____> | ||
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Archvil3
Denmark989 Posts
Motbob, I am curious how many "upset" bets did you succeed with? I mean where you one of the few that voted Foxer beating FD(not clear if that was an example or you actually did) and what was the biggest upset bet that you got away with? (PS sorry for derailing the thread from the stalker icon  ) | ||
motbob
United States12546 Posts
On November 24 2010 06:02 infinitestory wrote: Let's say I have a clone of myself who follows strategy B throughout the season, while I use strategy A. Since he's always betting on the guy with <50% chance of winning, in each bet I am expected to gain a point differential on him. Say there's a 1 point bet of player X versus player Y and player X has probability p > 0.5 to win. If I bet on X and my clone bets on Y, then my expected point gain is p and my clone's expected point gain is 1-p. So the point differential between our gains is 2p-1 in my favor, which is guaranteed to be positive. So how does he have a better chance of winning Liquibet? >_____> ? When did I say strategy B means always betting on the guy with <50% chance of winning? That would be an incredibly stupid strategy. | ||
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RisingTide
Australia769 Posts
It's fairly all or nothing, and most of the people who do it will be in the lower area of the points curve, but a few will be way higher than everyone else. In short: Liquibet is srs bsns | ||
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Loser777
1931 Posts
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zzaaxxsscd
United States626 Posts
Identify these "arbitrage" opportunities, pick wisely and PROFIT (i.e. win Liquibet) | ||
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SlayerS_BunkiE
Canada1707 Posts
anyways, thanks for sharing your insights. pretty nice, i hope i can win the LB also, top 20 would make me happy  | ||
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infinitestory
United States4053 Posts
On November 24 2010 08:03 motbob wrote: ? When did I say strategy B means always betting on the guy with <50% chance of winning? That would be an incredibly stupid strategy. It's an example, but even for one bet where I bet on guy with >50% chance, clone bets on guy with <50% chance, on average I will get points. So how does losing points on average translate to better chance of winning Liquibet? | ||
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Z3kk
4099 Posts
On November 24 2010 11:01 infinitestory wrote: It's an example, but even for one bet where I bet on guy with >50% chance, clone bets on guy with <50% chance, on average I will get points. So how does losing points on average translate to better chance of winning Liquibet? He just means that you'll sometimes have to take a risk if you want to get ahead. He's not telling you always to pick the one that seems less likely to win -.- he's just telling you that you have to get lucky and vote on people on whom others won't (sometimes), or else it will be impossible to win. | ||
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infinitestory
United States4053 Posts
On November 24 2010 11:07 Z3kk wrote: He just means that you'll sometimes have to take a risk if you want to get ahead. He's not telling you always to pick the one that seems less likely to win -.- he's just telling you that you have to get lucky and vote on people on whom others won't (sometimes), or else it will be impossible to win. I agree that there's luck involved, but I feel like somewhere in this argument there is a severe logical fallacy. >___> | ||
tofucake
Hyrule19050 Posts
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imPERSONater
United States1324 Posts
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huameng
United States1133 Posts
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ironchef
Canada1350 Posts
I think the biggest killer to me is not knowing the players well enough. Given the information, I rarely feel confident one way or another (esp past ro64). Like your FD v BoxerPrime example, I thought it was a HUGE upset- only seeing his ro64 game- but after seeing more games and his KR ladder rank etc it's not really that big of an upset. I need to fix that before I even consider higher liquibet strategies. Oh also, getting rocked hard this season lol. Sunk 50%, so pretty much no better than guessing. I guess I did watch less than last season, but I still thought I had enough knowledge to make the right pick haha. Granted I got cute with some underdog picks but have mostly been plain wrong. | ||
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