I've known this for a long time. That's basically how every competition works where only the top get a prize. I took some ridiculously speculative stocks in my stock market competition.

Cofo

United States1388 Posts

November 23 2010 16:28 GMT

#27

Nice guide, but I think you should have just called this thread "I have a stalker icon".

Dust14

Belgium490 Posts

November 23 2010 16:49 GMT

#28

Well, looking at my picks from last season, I kinda ended up doing half of that B and half of A strat which ended up with me failing almost the whole of ro16 picks ^^ I still ended 22nd so it wasn't all that bad, but maybe I should fully apply that B strat

Fenneth

Australia354 Posts

November 23 2010 16:54 GMT

#29

With the dubious credentials of being one of motbob's closest competitors last season, all I can say is that the man is 100% correct. Betting with the herd every time is a surefire way to mediocrity.

That said, I rarely bet against my honest prediction, and only in close cases. I believe the herd is often very wrong :D

HwangjaeTerran

Finland5967 Posts

November 23 2010 17:13 GMT

#30

Do you get epic icons when you win the liquibet?

Gotta win now.
Autovote protoss - antiautovote zerg, nonames and old schoolers over the popular guys. Has to work.

kOre

Canada3642 Posts

November 23 2010 17:18 GMT

#31

Stalker ... hacks

Zlasher

United States9129 Posts

November 23 2010 17:31 GMT

#32

He does all the GSL LR threads during quali's, I think he deserves it

darmousseh

United States3437 Posts

November 23 2010 17:44 GMT

#33

Hahahaha, I fully expect there to be a ton of weird bets from now on. As a result, people who bet based on past performances (like me) might not win, but I will get higher in the ranks

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

November 23 2010 17:50 GMT

#34

Wait, is this Motbob's strategy to win the liquidbet: Telling others how not to win the liquidbet?

I am always a person who bet on the more favorable player. Ended up pretty high each season like a top10, top50, and top 200 (I am not entirely sure).

You just need to vote every bets and know the players. Also you might want to take a few risk but only if you are close to the top and only do it at the end of betting season.

To be honest, Motbob's strategy is not bad. But if you follow it, you will probably fail very early in the season and won't have a chance to catch up.

FYI: I missed the first 3 bets this season and decided not to participate in liquidbet this season.

BTW Motbob: What are your current ranking this season?

Meapak_Ziphh

United States6789 Posts

November 23 2010 18:41 GMT

#35

I peaked at 15 in liquibet... thats because I accidentally picked foxer when I meant to pick someone else... that's probably gonna be the high point of my liquibet lol.
+ Show Spoiler +

Could I pl0x have a phoenix icon? thnx.

Z3kk

4099 Posts

November 23 2010 18:44 GMT

#36

I'm number 4 right now and all I did was vote for people I thought would win...maybe I just have poor decision-making and good luck. >o<

I peaked at number 6 the first time I tried after missing like 3 votes and literally not knowing who half the players were haha... It probably is just good luck :/

tyr

France1686 Posts

November 23 2010 18:56 GMT

#37

I was like 10th before the first semifinal of last season of liquibet2 and got it wrong. Jumped to 18th place when i could have been second right after motbob before the finals 2 points behind him and 1 point in front of third.
I would have voted BoxeR though as motbob clearly said he voted Nestea in the comments of the liquibet.
=> if you have a particular opponent in the final stages of the season (maybe you're competing against friends) and you're behind, pick the choice your opponent didn't pick, even if his chances of winning are 1%. Seems obvious but A LOT of people don't do it.

Z3kk

4099 Posts

November 23 2010 18:58 GMT

#38

On November 24 2010 03:56 tyr wrote:
I was like 10th before the first semifinal of last season of liquibet2 and got it wrong. Jumped to 18th place when i could have been second right after motbob before the finals 2 points behind him and 1 point in front of third.
I would have voted BoxeR though as motbob clearly said he voted Nestea in the comments of the liquibet.
=> if you have a particular opponent in the final stages of the season (maybe you're competing against friends) and you're behind, pick the choice your opponent didn't pick, even if his chances of winning are 1%. Seems obvious but A LOT of people don't do it.

OMG your post count! Dun dun dunnn.

Okay, I'm an idiot...but I couldn't resist.

Edit: but how do you tell what your opponent picked? Don't you just have to hope he announces it or something?

FiBsTeR

United States415 Posts

November 23 2010 19:06 GMT

#39

Nice post, but I have to wonder if this will change the metagame of LB. If people start taking more and more risks, dont you now increase the variance of Strategy A in your diagram AND decrease the points needed for #1, and so increasing the viability of "standard play" (picking the favorites)? I wonder where the equilibrium is.

EDIT: Nevermind, it doesn't actually change the variance, this is nonsense. Great read!

Slayer91

Ireland23448 Posts

November 23 2010 19:10 GMT

#40

Liquibet is about getting the most possible points, the other people's points shouldn't concern you until you want to know your ranking. You're talking about trying to predict the upsets, but seem to say you should always go for upset bets, when the reason its an upset is because it doesn't have 90%+ of the time. Therefore a lot of people picking the "favourites" will get a decent ranking, and only those clued up//lucky enough to guess good upsets will do really well PROVIDED they correctly predicted the other 95% of games that weren't upsets correctly.

Basically you have to know your shit or get lucky or both.