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On November 08 2012 02:08 sylverfyre wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2012 00:58 Djodref wrote:On November 08 2012 00:46 sylverfyre wrote:
Also Djo, if you're secretly a scum roleblocker and lucked out that there is no jailkeeper and only 1 power role, I WILL hate you for this play. @ SylverfyreDon't make me laugh, I'm going to achieve 20 pages filter when you have 5 and I would be the scum. I told you that Alsn and me share the same secret "extra information" that you were asking me for. We are both 100% confirmed to each other. The fact that Clarity could not write a proper case against Obzy is a very strong proof that Obzy is town. Mafia writes good cases when they bus, but it's way more difficult for them when they have to frame. On top of that, Obzy shows a very likely behavior for a first time player as VT. I would also say that he deserves his victory if his emotional post was fake. @ OnbzyOnce again, congrats for your analysis on Clarity According to me, the remaining scum is among Rad, daoud and you. You look the worst among these 3 so you spend your night in my jail. That is if you are not a mafia roleblocker... A TWENTY PAGE FILTER IS RIDICULOUS. Does anyone in the Acme mafia game have a 20 page filter? I looked at a bunch of them. Most active players have around 5 pages. The most active players have 8 and 9 page filters. It's night 2 over there. BTW, they also are a 13 player game and have 20 less pages than we do. You post like a madman. I think you're right about Clarity, but I also think you're crazy and full of confirmation bias.
@ Sylverfyre
Are you angry because the scumteam got nailed during D1 ?
Y u no concede ?
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On November 08 2012 00:56 Rad wrote:
Some quick thoughts. If clarity flips blue, 100% djo scum. If he flips red, 100% djo blue, alsn blue.
Is there a link to 100% djo partner then if clarity flips blue? Alsn could be second cop with him, and probably is since there are no more blue claims.
Rad, even IF Clarity DID flip blue, somehow - it doesn't say anything about Djo's alignment. If he was scum and fakeclaimed when he did, it would've been an enormous risk to push through a Clarity mislynch. Djo had been pushing Clarity like absolute mad up until that point already, he claimed to:
#1- heighten his credibility
#2- take away pressure from the blue hunting that you and Clar were talking to him about; such as when he said he didn't care if he outed blues to kill mafia, and then properly outed himself to get the Clar lynch. If he was dead certain Clarity was scum at that time, his actions show he was willing to die N2 to push the D2 lynch through.
That would be absolutely insane to do as scum, it relies on a large number of assumptions and hopes, and if Clarity flipped blue, (IF IF IF), it would merely mean that Djo was wrong, not that he blatantly lied.
Honestly, even bringing up Djo as scum as an assumption if Clarity were to flip blue is sort of ridiculous. If he isn't killed in the next few nights, it would look rather suspicious, but until then, I don't think that it would be as simple a matter as "Clar blue = Djo scum".
Honestly, assuming two cops would be much more of a stretch than Djo being scum, IMHO, but Alsn's claim is far, far better than Clarity's.
@Clarity
Lets look at his motive, the circumstances, if it's believable (breadcrumbs), and if it would be wise to fakeclaim here:
His motive is to not get lynched by claiming blue. That much is pretty clear.
The circumstances - Well, he's going to get lynched. It's a very convenient claim to pull out at this point.
Is it believable? His breadcrumb does not exist, he supposedly got roleblocked so he also doesn't have a read. I don't think that's very believable, personally.
Is it wise to fakeclaim here? Well, he could get counterclaimed, and Djo has already pointed out that he was fairly certain Clar wasn't blue. So although it's not really particularly wise to fakeclaim, I think he's desperate.
@Alsn
Same steps.
The motive behind claiming is to counterclaim Clarity. Completely reasonable.
The circumstances - really, they're the same as the above.
Is it believable? - If he's counterclaiming Clarity as a cop and Clarity flips blue, Alsn is practically confirmed blue unless it's an incredibly unlikely scenario of having multiple cops in a 9 person game. His breadcrumb is significantly more believable, breadcrumbing that he was investigating me but received no notification due to Djo jailing him, and also breadcrumbing his actual role - much, much more believable than Clarity.
Is it wise to fakeclaim here?
NO NO NO NO NO IT WOULD BE MORONIC DING DING DING.
Rad, I think that Sylver is probably our second scum, but trying to cast suspicion on the two blues that are, IMO, confirmed as per the above reasoning - That's just ridiculous. Alsn and Djo are confirmed blues IMO, I am VT(there was some doubt about whether or not I was legitimately claiming this or just claiming a town bias - VT is correct), Clarity is scum, that leaves Sylver, da0ud, and you. I think da0ud is town because of his post here, I also agree with his thinking that it's Clar/Sylv; Clar/Rad in that order.
It's possible that da0ud is the last scum, but- it's possible that Djo is the bravest mafia player ever and fakeclaimed to shove through a Clarity lynch knowing that it was wrong with the knowledge that other claims would pretty much instantly doom him with confirmation bias the entire way and suspicions around him.
It's just incredibly unlikely.
(I don't intend to post much/if at all beyond this until the flip unless things go absolutely nuts and turned on their head - like, three more blueclaims nuts or something). I'm obviously satisfied with my vote on Clarity at the moment, and I think that Rad and Sylver should take a good look at each other, because one of them is scum.
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@Alsn
I have a very good feeling when I see Obzy and daoud acknoledge each other. My town read on them is reinforced.
Nice job guys ! Good grasp of the situation 
Would you also conclude that the remaining scum is sylver or Rad ?
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I'm not trying to cast suspicion on the blues. At all. I have faith right now that they are who they claim to be, the evidence is difficult to refute. There's only 1 way I see that Djo can be scum, I pointed it out, and it's NOT EVEN WORTH CONSIDERING unless Clarity flips Cop. In fact, I'm not even going to bring it up again unless Clarity DOES flip Cop.
I'm simply accusing Djo of confirmation biasing the fuck out of me. To the point where I'm pretty sure nothing I say AND nothing he does will make him believe my innocence.
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On November 08 2012 02:45 Djodref wrote: @AlsnI have a very good feeling when I see Obzy and daoud acknoledge each other. My town read on them is reinforced. Nice job guys ! Good grasp of the situation Would you also conclude that the remaining scum is sylver or Rad ? Yes, I'm pretty convinced of that. I'm just not sure if it's sylver or Rad. Rad has been doing some pretty damn fish anti-town moves all throughout this day while I find sylver's scum motives to be unlikely. That being said, it's not like sylver is some patron saint of townieness at this stage. I think the biggest thing pointing in his favour of being town is his fixation on a cheese/debears scum team late D1 in combination with cheese being lynched and then going on and NKing debears. I suppose it makes sense that the only one that had been on their side on D1(me) had abandoned the debears scum cause, so they figured they'd get rid of him since I considered him town. But yea.
Either way, once Clarity flips we will be 5 town vs 1 scum. Even assuming the worst(that you are wrong about sylver being scum or that the last scum is roleblocker and can kill Djod) we will be 4 town vs 1 scum D3, so we can afford one mislynch no matter what.
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EBWOP: My first paragraph there is a bit confusing, I'm saying I'm still thinking there's some chance of sylver being town due to the unlikelihood of him killing off his only D1 suspicions(it forces him to make up a new "fake" case on someone or bus his team mate). However I can definitely see that they might have gotten desperate after I abandoned the debears wagon and figured they needed to get rid of him.
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On November 08 2012 02:45 Djodref wrote: @AlsnI have a very good feeling when I see Obzy and daoud acknoledge each other. My town read on them is reinforced. Nice job guys ! Good grasp of the situation Would you also conclude that the remaining scum is sylver or Rad ? Djod, keep in mind at this point, there's basically no gain whatsoever for scum to oppose the Clarity lynch for any reason. If scum for some reason isn't sylver or possibly Rad, that person would have everything to gain from sucking up to you and your master plan like you're the messiah or something.
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But there are a few things I'm looking forward to with this lynch. I'm pretty sure that there isn't a framer. Since I doubt Clarity would try and claim cop if there was(they'd have to assume that there's an actual cop in the game who could counter-claim, cause otherwise the framer role would be pretty silly). The only thing I can think of that speaks against that, is that in the case of a framer, scum would assume there is a cop, and having given up on clarity, they wanted to get the cop to reveal by sacrificing Clarity.
So, assuming that I'm right and there's no framer, we can probably assume that if Clarity flips RB, his partner is a goon. While if he flips goon, the odds of his partner being roleblocker goes up dramatically(although framer isn't entirely out of the picture like I mentioned above).
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I'm not convinced you can take an assumption like that as fact. I don't know how marv came to the actual setup either (QQ, I like RNG-transparency here.) but it's common for roles to be decided completely randomly - useful or not. I've seen plenty of games with a godfather but no cop, a framer isn't a role I'm particularly familiar with, but the same applies. Arguably, cop-less town setups are weaker anyway, so that ends up balancing out the null power role of scum.
That aside, I suppose you're right that IF there were a framer, then it would be LESS LIKELY for Clarity to choose Cop as his roleclaim over Medic. But this is behavioral and not statistical analysis of the situation.
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On November 08 2012 04:39 Alsn wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2012 02:45 Djodref wrote: @AlsnI have a very good feeling when I see Obzy and daoud acknoledge each other. My town read on them is reinforced. Nice job guys ! Good grasp of the situation Would you also conclude that the remaining scum is sylver or Rad ? Djod, keep in mind at this point, there's basically no gain whatsoever for scum to oppose the Clarity lynch for any reason. If scum for some reason isn't sylver or possibly Rad, that person would have everything to gain from sucking up to you and your master plan like you're the messiah or something.
That's exactly why I'm afraid of Djo's confirmation bias against me.
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Okay guys. Time for me to go to bed.
##Vote Clarity
Thanks for the game! I hope some of you are interested in discussing it afterwards.
I'm looking forward to seeing how this game ends.
Good luck to all!
PS: Djo don't apologize so much.
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##Vote Clarity
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Vote Count!
If your vote is not properly formatted it might not be counted. Everyone is required to vote.
Clarity_nl (7) - da0ud, Djodref, Obzy, Alsn, sylverfyre, Clarity_nl, Rad da0ud, Djodref, Rad
Obzy (0) - Clarity_nl
sylverfyre (0) - Obzy
Alsn (0) - Djodref
Djodref (0) - sylverfyre
Not Voting - (0)
Currently, Clarity_nl is set to be lynched! Pm me if you see that your vote is incorrect. You have about 1 hour and 30 minutes left to vote! Deadline is at 01:00 GMT (+00:00)
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If the flavour text for this lynch isn't ready by the time I want to sleep tonight, I'm going to take a very stern tone with whichever host is responsible after the game! Just saying!
/hides
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Has the thread exploded? No? Good.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
Night 2![[image loading]](http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01666/sexshopsign_1666649c.jpg) Pink and shiny!
It had been a busy time for the Porn circle. The death of serial fapper debears had brought them all out of their torpor. Progress was being made, seemingly, into the infiltration of their group. The wide network of contacts they had gained in their extensive time 'surfing' the internet had brought some interesting leads.
The seven men had once again convened in their typical meeting place, laptops in tow, to discuss their recent findings. Discussion was quite muted, and several men exchanged furtive glances. The atmosphere was tense, as the men knew that the fate of free porn resided in their hands, often literally, and time was ticking away.
One hour into the meeting, two policemen marched into the room and arrested Clarity_nl on suspicion of fraud.
Clarity_nl sat in his police cell, despondent. For the arbitrary sake of my next couple of sentences, the police had mysteriously allowed him to keep his smartphone.
He knew he was guilty and would probably be sent down for many years, so he emailed his partner in the circle with detailed instructions of how to continue their subterfuge.
That done, he lay down on the uncomfortable slab they called a bed. Surfing the net, he decided that he may as well find some porn to pass the time. Junk in hand, he started to enjoy himself.
A passing officer checking the cells came across this lurid sight. Being corrupt and in a position of power, he decided to take advantage of the situation. The scene inside the cell was brutal and unrelateable, but the officer was satisfied.
The case against Clarity_nl never made it to court... but then again, no-one ever heard of him again. This police force knew how to cover their tracks. Why else be in the police?
And oh, the porn on Clarity_nl's phone? It was a pay-site.
Clarity_nl, the regular porn company owner (goon), was lynched!
+ Show Spoiler [Final Vote Count] +
Final Vote Count
Clarity_nl (7) - da0ud, Djodref, Obzy, Alsn, sylverfyre, Clarity_nl, Rad da0ud, Djodref, Rad
Obzy (0) - Clarity_nl
sylverfyre (0) - Obzy
Alsn (0) - Djodref
Djodref (0) - sylverfyre
It is now Night 2. You have about 24 hours to get in your actions to me and thrawn.
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Damnit, goon.
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Well, it's a step in the right direction at least. Although we're not out of the woods yet, I think sleep is in order. Gj guys, let's keep it up.
Also, gg Clarity, see you in the post-game!
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EPT
