All right, I wanted to make this post in the case that I die. These are the reads that I haven't really made public as of yet for varying reasons.
Debears is very probably town, if he isn't then I don't know what to say. Rad is definitely town, or at the very least you should treat him as such. If he's SK the game is over for town but if he's vigi it's definitely winnable. Dandel is probably town, but I still can't discount the possibility that he's scum role blocker. His claim doesn't rule it out(like Rad's does) but his actions during D2/N2 at least suggests to me that he's either town or a damned good actor when under pressure(the lynch chaos seemed genuinely town to me).
Nackh I consider to be really scummy. His cases seem "fake" somehow, they don't suggest to me like he's really trying to really find scum. I keep getting the feeling that he doesn't actually care about winning. However, if I suppose that he's scum, it would mean that he just believes trolling the fuck out of the thread will make us feel scared about voting him(because we might think he's too big of a risk to lynch). Cheese... I just don't know, he's my top scum read among "the actives" based on his actions, but my problem is that I think Nackh is really scummy, so Cheese being accused by him means that either he's bussing him or Cheese is innocent. I can at least see a world where Cheese could be innocent.
I find Nackh's general behaviour to be anti-town however. So suppose he really has played those 10 games of mafia he claims to have played. Then he probably knows that bussing is way more effective for gaining townie points if you're the cause of a scum lynch(first one to accuse) as opposed to waiting until there's a wagon already formed.
Among these players and with how things stand right now, I'd suggest lynching Nackh. He's simply not playing very pro-town and that's the biggest scum tell I have right now. Also, unless that's also just him completely trolling, for some reason he seems set on the idea that both Roco and Inig are town with no chance of them being scum. I have no idea why he would think that unless he already knew that they were town.
That leaves Roco and Inig. Sigh, I really wish we hadn't thought Roco was gonna get modkilled. Getting rid of him over Djod or even da0ud would've been a much better position. That being said, I'd hold off on lynching Inig for at the very least tomorrow. I find the possibility of him being town not entirely unlikely and in the case that he is, there's still hope for him. I think you have to assume that Roco is scum. Because even if he isn't I just don't see how you could get him to vote with you when he won't even talk.
In conclusion, Lynch Roco and hope to god that he's scum, then probably Nackh, and then hopefully you have the last scum figured out and Rad doesn't actually turn out to be SK. If you don't want to hope that Roco is scum, or if in fact he actually shows up and contributes in a meaningful way, then I'd go with Nackh first.
evo 2004 daigo(ken) vs justin wong(chun li) final match
By now it was almost known that the Satsui No Hadou was at work. There had been too many deaths in the tournament, in fact any deaths at all was a big shock for all involved. These events were supposed to be about honor, gaining personal satisfaction, and proving your strength... clearly something sinister was going on behind the curtains.
Ryu was growing ever stronger. In all of his matches, his opponents were pushed to their limits and forced to accept the power granted by the Dark Haduo in an attempt to win, only to lose and have their life force swallowed up. It looked as if Ryu was only going to claim more and more lives on his way to the top.
….........................
Everyone was afraid to go out at night, except for Ibuki. Ibuki was used to the dark... preferred it actually. Her lifetime of ninja training had taught her how to blend into the shadows, and move quickly across any landscape without making the slightest noise.
But that night there was something lurking about much worse than darkness...... and Ibuki never returned home.
Rad, as Ibuki the Vigilante has died!
Flavor is just flavor. You have 48 hours left to vote! Deadline is at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Votes that are not in the correct format will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote.
On October 31 2012 09:14 Inigmaticalism wrote: Nope, appears I have not been roleblocked.
Okay, thanks.
Sadly, that means the small chance that my role still had of doing anything after being claimed is gone too.
I call it the "retard check": I roleblock somebody and hope the say they've been roleblocked.
Why didn't it work? I obviously have been roleblocked tonight, myself. I mean, a 4 blue setup (or SK, who's not a possibility anymore)? You bet your ass scum has a RB too. I kinda hoped, since nobody claimed a block after N1, but apparantly not.
Thanks to roleblock mechanics (I verified this w/ host), if RB A blocks RB B, and B blocks random person C, only A's roleblock goes through. In this situation, I am B. If RB A blocks RB B, and B also blocks A, both get the block PM.
What we learned: Nothing, except that Inig isn't retarded, in case he's the scum RB. What we could've learned: If Inig had claimed a RB, he'd be confirmed scum.
I told you my idea was a crapshoot, but hell, worth a try...
First, I think we can all agree that before this night flip, we knew two things. That Rad was either SK or Vigi and also that Dandel was either scum or town roleblocker.
We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill.
Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer).
Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best.
So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum:
Unlikelihood of there being 4 blues, as well as the very real possibility that there is a scum roleblocker.
The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town.
The likelihood of there actually being a scum roleblocker.
On October 31 2012 09:25 Alsn wrote: First, I think we can all agree that before this night flip, we knew two things. That Rad was either SK or Vigi and also that Dandel was either scum or town roleblocker.
We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill.
Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer).
Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best.
So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum:
Unlikelihood of there being 4 blues, as well as the very real possibility that there is a scum roleblocker.
The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town.
The likelihood of there actually being a scum roleblocker.
Wanting to set up kush for the D2 lynch.
OMGUS case against Inig D1.
So, you're gonna risk LYLO because of.... setup speculation? With added WIFOM? ......
Well, good job coming up with a "case" that's impossible to defend against, I guess.
On October 31 2012 09:33 Dandel Ion wrote: So, you're gonna risk LYLO because of.... setup speculation? With added WIFOM? ......
Well, good job coming up with a "case" that's impossible to defend against, I guess.
I literally have no idea what to say to that.
I don't expect you to defend against it as like you said, the case is not really open for debate as it's just a statement of probability. I believe there's a very high chance of you being scum.
If you(or someone else for that matter) can produce a case where someone else is even more scum I'm still going to read and consider it. I'm not going to go all Nackh and read everything you say painted in red. But right now this is the best I can do. What do you propose are our other options? Gambling on nackh, roco or Inig? Or do you think Cheese, debears or me is scum perhaps? What does everyone else think?
It's possible that you're town and scum took a chance with hitting Rad. It's possible that there really are 4 blue roles. It's possible that the scum roleblocker is really someone else. I just find the odds of all those things aligning together to be very long odds.
You sure do change opinions a lot. You thought Dandel was scum, then thought he was town after RB claim, now after Rad does in fact flip vig you consider him scum again? I understand the setup considerations you mention, but your opinion seems to be swaying from one extreme to the other very quickly. What's your opinion on a Roco / Inig lynch?
Also, at this point, a ton of lynches are looking like coin flips to me. The only one I don't see having much a chance to flip red is Debears. Roco/Nack/Inig are looking 50/50 to me. Maybe Roco a bit more if he's a scum that just refused to post so he couldn't get called out and skates by on just a vote post. (Why wasn't he NK'd... GAH)
Well, for what it's worth, it makes pretty damn good sense for scum to kill Rad. Confirmed town, town showed no willingness to ever lynch him, so they'd have to shoot him sooner or later anyways. SK also isn't neccessarily bulletproof. SK would've been the biggest threat to scum, if present. Town sure hasn't been.... All in all, Rad was the best target.
Who would you have thought would die?
Also, if we have 4 blues, it's actually MORE likely scum have more powerroles. probably all 3 of them. You know, symmetrical balance and all.
Why did you make a if-I-die post calling me "probably town", just to flip-flop off of it after 10 minutes into "sure scum"? Did you, what, think Rad wasn't gonna die? Cause I sure expected that. (well, maybe still a kill on debears, but he's not confirmed, so not as important)
If anything, your quick going back on your own prior "reads" suggests you knew you were not going to die. Cause if you actually thought you might, you would've included this line of thinking in the first place, instead of keeping it to push for the next best lynch 10 minutes later.
Because I actually was making a post like that about an hour before the night post when I first thought about it but writing the post got me so convinced that scum wouldn't hit Rad that it seemed like a pointless argument to make at the time. Thinking that, I figured even if you were town they wouldn't kill you simply because of your claim being ambiguous. Which is the point where I started to realise the only other targets would be debears or if debears was somehow scum, me.
I just concluded that they wouldn't actually try to kill Rad. Seeing the night post surprised me quite a lot.
EPT
