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On August 12 2012 02:59 Promethelax wrote:I would put the second scum between Dandel and Shady: Dandel says that he can't comment on his feelings on me Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:28 Dandel Ion wrote:On August 11 2012 07:22 Hapahauli wrote:
We have a couple of people here, me, Dandel Ion, lvdr, and Sideni confrimed. ShadySands and Kronen have posted recently. Between us 6, we can swing a lynch in a better direction.
Possible Lynch Tarets
GoodKarma - hasn't stuck his neck out, has played semi-lurky, and has tunneled suspicion on Axero and Sideni. It's his lack of involvement in this game that I find strange. Townies are naturally suspicious of several people and constantly switch suspicions (unless emotional). GoodKarma has played suspiciously "clean," and I think he could be mafia tunneling suspicion on two easy targets.
Axero - his "ragequit" gives me a slight townie read, but I find his other behavior suspicious. I've made my views clear.
Promethelax - Comes in, points a lot of fingers, picks a fight with Dandel Ion, then leaves. Call it a gut feeling, but I find his behavior strange. I don't think i can comment on Promethelax, I'm rather angry at him after all. I certainly wouldn't miss him, but a mislynch is a mislynch, and I don't feel like I can gauge if he's scum or not.[/b[ I'd be happy to bus him though.
Axero was never that strong a scum read to me - though you can never be sure. I have stated previously that I think you are biased against him, Hapa.
I'd rather lynch him, than have a no-lynch, but he's not my priority.
Goodkarma would be your "safe" pick for a lynch. He didn't post anything scummy in itself, but then again, he didn't post in the first place.
Might be our best chance
until he is asked about it, when I am his biggest scum read. I hadn't psoted at all between these two posts. So what changed? I'd say that Dandel realized that there was some town sentiment against me and it was safe to make his move. Show nested quote +[b]Promethelax My #1 scum read at the moment. [spoiler]Some meta to start it off: In game 0.5 he opened the game by posting this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=10#190My highlight out of there is: My strengths in mafia games are my ability to build strong cases and to post in an active and pro-town manner. He has not done any of that this game. Spoilered because it's not really an argument[/spoiler] On to the real case: 1) He accused me on being scum on my SECOND post in the thread. on the basis of "lurking" not fitting my "meta". Nevermind the fact that day/night posts are at 1 AM for me. 75% of my "lurking" time, I've just been sleeping. Whatever, he might just be PMS'ing. I conceded that I didn't post shit yet [spoiler](as an european I'm pretty used to NA people forgetting about timezones and shit)[/spoiler] and thought he'd let it rest. NOPE next: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=25#498 Roundhouse kicking a few people. Wouldn't be too bad, but what stands out is that while berateing people for not commenting on what happened so far, he didn't actually comment on any of that either - he just picks 4-5 people and casts general suspicion everywhere. Asks iamperfection why he's so free with his FoS, when the first thing he did himself is FoS'ing YourHarry and lvdr IN HIS FIRST POST, without any good reason. Some posts questioning and passively accusing people inbetween. Then he finally takes it on his shoulders to try and contribute: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=32#624What stands out first is how long the post is. What stands out right after that is how he says NOTHING with it. He casts general suspicion everywhere he can (I'm seeing a pattern). In just this one post calls scummy: Sideni (good-as-confirmed town), Axero (flipped town), me (am town), lvdr (strong town read) iamperfection (decent town read) and YourHarry (town-ish, as I stated above) All his reads are weak as hell, even back then, and outright silly now. I personally interpret his Sideni vote as trying to get the mislynch train rolling He then has a shitton of oneliners/no-content posts. Whenever possible, he also tries his best to insult me, which is kinda weird, for scum to openly antagonize people, but whatever. Doesn't even try to think about the Sideni situation, leaving his vote on him. By that time even I, one of the biggest pushers for a Sideni lynch, didn't think Sideni was scum anymore. He even insults me (nothing new in itself) for jumping off the Sideni train in time. I see no town motivations ANYWHERE in Promethelax' play.
Verdict: SCUMThose are my thoughts on people as it stands right now, tell me if i missed anything/if you don't follow my logic anywhere.
I didn't want to comment/think about you before because I was pissed at you for being a massive dick.
I slept over it, and I feel like I can post it now, without being too emotionally influenced.
How about you adress my case (and the other's suspicions against you) instead of trying to invalidate it with you BS?
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HAHAHAHAHA oh my god you think I'm mafia. 100% desperation right there.
Also, scumslip:
Town reads are: suck it scum, you won't get extra information out of me
No town reads because you don't want to give scum information they already have?
Lastly, respond to this or I'll vote you the second D2 starts:
@ Kronen, mkfuba, YourHarry, Promethelax, and ShadySands - I want to hear your thoughts on the other 4 players before the night is over. No exceptions.
TOWN, make sure you hold each and every person on this list accountable for the above!
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EBWOP: Past post directed @ Promethelax
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@ Dandel Ion - don't take away too much from Promethelax's post. It's not founded in logic or reason; it's 100% desperate mafia. Nothing worth getting upset over. I wish Axero didn't die - I'd request a vigi shot on Prom on the spot.
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On August 12 2012 03:11 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Dandel Ion - don't take away too much from Promethelax's post. It's not founded in logic or reason; it's 100% desperate mafia. Nothing worth getting upset over. I wish Axero didn't die - I'd request a vigi shot on Prom on the spot.
I wish I WAS the Vigi 
Woulda loved to do it myself
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Ya know, I realy don't blame Promethelax for coming in and lambasting several players - he really has no other choice as mafia at this point.
Anywho, I'll draw what I can from the post before the night is over. Still waiting on Kronen's thoughts on the players I've mentioned, as well as mkfuba07's thoughts on Promethelax.
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Good morning town! That was one crazy D1.. Before I get to any content, I want to point out this unbelievable read by Hapa
Either way, my gut feeling says GoodKarma - his play has been way too clean. Suspiciously clean in a pretty batshit crazy Day 1.
Legit.
Anyways I have some evidence about Shady to put forward.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=40#799
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=41#802
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=41#802
I find these 3 posts show shady to be trying desperately to shift suspicion away from GK.
I think the town strategy was extremely clear: Sideni and Axero were looking more and more like guaranteed mislynches, while GK was (as Dandel put it) the 'safe lynch.'
Clearly it was a move AWAY from mislynching
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=37#733
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=37#739
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=38#746
If I was mafia there is no way GK would have been my #1 lurker: there were plenty of other options. Therefore busing seems quite farfetched.
It is also interesting that pointed suspicion to me, someone who already had plenty of suspicion cast on him, instead of Hapa who was unlynchable d1 and would have been the person to actually put responsibility on should the lynch have gone badly.
Just as bad town play has to be accounted for, seeing the godfather in danger this could be bad mafia play.
After the flip, Shady obliges by providing supplementary cases on Prome and Kronen. He has to do this because they are the primary suspects right now and he must show willingness to help whether he's town or mafia, or he will be up for serious suspicion D2.
On review, the part after the flip is very WIFOM, and not as strong as I expected. However if the scumteam doesn't turn out to be Prome/Kronen/mkfuba it could be Shady/YH or another nonconfirmed townie. This could be useful later, but I think it needs to go on the back burner.
EDIT WHILE WRITING: Wow prome's post looks like scum. Shady looks pretty clean given the suspicion prome is putting on him.
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@Prome: Please answer these questions regarding Hapa busing.
1. Why was the godfather bused instead of a goon?
2. Why was the strategy to bus instead of taking out Sideni/Axero with a easily disguiseable mislynch?
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Careful at putting too much stock into Promethelax's name-dropping. His post is basically a WIFOM mind-bomb.
I have four interpretations of Promethelax's Post:
1) Part of me doubts that Promethelax (as hypothetical mafia) would so willingly exonerate a non-confirmed townie by including him in a list with two almost-confirmed townies (me and Dandel Ion). Given Shady's instant FOS against Promethelax after I posted my suspicions, Promethelax could have name-dropped Shady in order to get him as far through the game as possible, "confirming" his scumbuddy as townie. I consider this not likely, but possible
2) Promethelax is just OMGUSing everyone who casted heavy suspicion on him. Shady, Dandel Ion, and I are the three people who've made Promethelax our top scumread. I consider this most likely
3) Promethelax's post is so terrible that he's giving his scumbuddy (i.e Mkfuba) cover to switch suspicion on him. I consider this likely
4) Promethelax's post is a list of NK's. He's planning to NK me or Dandel Ion, and point to "why would I NK someone I'm suspicious of if I was mafia" in defense. I consider this semi-likely
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Promethelax
I agree with what has been said by the rest of the players. His play has been lackluster from a town standpoint. He claims to provide very good cases, and then votes for Sideni based on the same reasoning that GK tried to use: Sideni mistook the name of who was getting married. He also seems to completely overinflate the impact of Sideni's request that people help build a case against me. Even as the one accused, I saw this as a townie who had been under pressure all game, trying to provide something substantial that would get the pressure off of himself. He also says that given what we learned throughout the day, there was still not enough information to have changed his vote to someone more reasonably scummy. There was so much information, and these are the facts he latches onto? Yes, confidence in a case that people aren't buying is typically seen as a town trait, but these arguments are empty.
As for the "bussing" that he thinks went on, I don't buy it. There is so much that could have gone wrong during the day to pull off the bus, and there is so much that could go wrong when his unconfirmed townies start flipping green (supposing that Hapa was scum). I don't believe the benefits would have outweighed the risks. I also second Lvdr's question: Why bus the godfather?
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Who do you think is scum #2 mkfuba?
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Yeah Promethelax is just covering for something/someone.
If he's suicidal, he's trying to distance himself from the nightkill.
Maybe he's trying to juke the medic by making Hapa and me look like NK targets and then kill somebody else - not a good trade for making his scum obvious in the process.
He might just try to buy somebody towncred - we'll see.
What I really want to see now is Kronen's post
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I feel like the end of my post wasn't well thought through. I want to cast suspicion on shady without trying to place him with a partner. I will hash out some more thoughts tonight, as well as take a close look at the other suspects.
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Right now I would still say Shady. In addition to my previous post here + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#884 On August 11 2012 07:43 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? Basically, he's been lurking, he hasn't contributed any original analysis, and he's tunneled suspicion on Axero/Sideni. He's taken safe positions while never sticking his neck out. Especially in light of how insane D1 has been, I find this strange. TBH, I'm just incredibly unsatisfied with the current lynch candidates (Sideni and Lvdr) - I think they're bad townies. He doesn't accept Hapa's reasoning here, when I see no flaws with it from a pro-town standpoint. Only after Kronen clinches the vote for GK does Shady actually confirm his vote on Lvdr. He uses Lvdr's "suspicious" decision as reasoning, when I don't see it as suspicious at all. At this point, his vote will not sway the vote either way, so I don't see it as particularly townish to stubbornly stick with his original vote. He also earns some towncred along the way for not bandwagoning. He even included this post that establishes his willingness to go either way if given a reason:
On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma?
But when his vote no longer impacts the lynch, he doesn't change his vote despite valid reasons being presented.
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Is it a good idea to openly discuss blue role strategy?
@yh I haven't had any coaching this game. Just trying to build on what I learned day0.5
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@yh why is iamperfection equally suspicious with prome?
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On August 12 2012 05:18 mkfuba07 wrote:Right now I would still say Shady. In addition to my previous post here + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#884 , I have more thoughts concerning his actions around the time of the vote. Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:43 Hapahauli wrote:On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? Basically, he's been lurking, he hasn't contributed any original analysis, and he's tunneled suspicion on Axero/Sideni. He's taken safe positions while never sticking his neck out. Especially in light of how insane D1 has been, I find this strange. TBH, I'm just incredibly unsatisfied with the current lynch candidates (Sideni and Lvdr) - I think they're bad townies. He doesn't accept Hapa's reasoning here, when I see no flaws with it from a pro-town standpoint. Only after Kronen clinches the vote for GK does Shady actually confirm his vote on Lvdr. He uses Lvdr's "suspicious" decision as reasoning, when I don't see it as suspicious at all. At this point, his vote will not sway the vote either way, so I don't see it as particularly townish to stubbornly stick with his original vote. He also earns some towncred along the way for not bandwagoning. He even included this post that establishes his willingness to go either way if given a reason: Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? But when his vote no longer impacts the lynch, he doesn't change his vote despite valid reasons being presented.
Here's the problem with your logic. After Kronen clinched the vote, no matter which way I voted, you can use that to argue that I'm scum. If I voted GK, then it can look like a scum trying to look innocent, and if I voted someone else, then you can argue the WIFOM-ish argument you just posted.
What happened is that about 30 minutes before the lynch, I came into the thread and saw a huge pileup on GoodKarma when most of the D1 discussion had been around Sideni and Lvdr. I was really confused, and asked for people to help me recap what had happened. After that, I thought that the case on GK was not as good as the one on Lvdr, so I went with the Lvdr vote. Someone tell me why this is scum behavior?
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Thank god, the pressure has been released ! :D
I'm thankful to every town players for your faith in me being bad ! :D
Alright, now, I've looked at the list Hapahauli made of the possible town players.
I agree with all the arguments given ! (From Hapa, Dandel Ion, YourHarry regarding the town reads)
I took more time looking at Promethelax though since Hapa pointed out that he was suspicious !
Ok, let's assume Prome is mafia and let's look at his post where he points at 8 people at the same time ! (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=32#624)
I made a list of ALL the players he thinks are suspicious (what a long and meticulous job !  )
The list :
Dandel Ion
iamperfection
Kronen
Axero
Lvdr
Shady Sands
YourHarry
Sideni
I do believe that in this list are only town players (only if Promethelax turns out to be mafia)
My reasoning behind it is that he wouldn't try to give suspicions on his fellows this early on Day 1. (Note that he hasn't talk about GoodKarma !)
So, if we have the townie reads on Hapahauli, Dandel Ion, Lvdr, iamperfection, Shady Sands, Axero (no shit ! ).
We can cut the list as the following :
YourHarry
Kronen
If Promethelax turns out to be mafia, I will have strong town reads upon YourHarry and Kronen !
As for now, the only players remaining out of the list of Prome are the following :
Hapahauli
Mkfuba07
GoodKarma
As everybody other than Prome, I think that Hapahauli is a confirmed town player !
Which give us the remaining Mkfuba07 and GoodKarma (only one remaining).
So, I would give some attention to Mkfuba and Promethelax during the remaining time of the night AND during Day 2!
To add something about Promethelax being scum, here's a quote from his last HUGE post (where he was saying Hapahauli was suspicious) (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#899)
On August 12 2012 02:59 Promethelax wrote:
Well I'm shocked that lynched worked out for us, well done. I would not have joined in that late vote switch, it just seemed too crazy on too little evidence.
He's talking about the possibility of coming back !
Weren't you at work by that time Prome as you said in an earlier post !? (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=37#737)
Extremely strong scum read on Promethelax and suspicious of Mkfuba.
Voting Prome right when Day 2 starts.
##FOS Promethelax
##FOS Mkfuba07
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On August 12 2012 06:45 Sideni wrote:
As for now, the only players remaining out of the list of Prome are the following :
Hapahauli
Mkfuba07
GoodKarma
EBWOP :
I meant to say : "As for now, the only players remaining in the game (when we cut off the town reads in the logic we're going through) are the following :"
Instead of : "As for now, the only players remaining out of the list of Prome are the following :"
Thanks and sorry ! :D
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EPT
