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On December 22 2011 13:37 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 13:36 prplhz wrote:
I'm going to venture asking Foolishness a question.
Is LSB town? I don't know. What I do know is that LSB is being responsible, and GMarshal is not.
- You don't buy into the idea that GMarshal would never claim to be busy when he's actually just lurking because he doesn't want to say anything because he's scum?
- By "being responsible" I hope you're not talking about "responsibility points", but about how LSB is actually around to defend himself while GMarshal is not?
I numbered my question so it would be very easy for you to answer!
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On December 22 2011 13:39 kitaman27 wrote:Wiggles, you don't mention which scenario you prefer... Also, why did you assume 3 mafia? OP clearly states the mafia count is four + a traitor. Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 13:33 Foolishness wrote:
##Unvote: LSB
##Vote: GMarshal
aaawwwwwww yeah! I knew I could count on your support. Now witness the wrath of my town influence as I gather 10 other votes in the next 20 minutes. ##Unvote
##Vote Foolishness
It doesn't make much difference. Lynching one of them gives us more information, sooner, though. As well, leaving them both alive has more variance, which can be good or bad (Between 2 scum dead, no town losses, or 4 town dead, no scum losses).
If LSB is a vig and shoots me tonight (I'm his red read), we're going to be losing two town tonight, though.
Lynch ends in 18 minutes?
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+ Show Spoiler +On December 22 2011 13:37 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
I'm also entertaining the idea that GM is scum, and scum were given Justice Vigilante as one of their safe-claims. Then, he sticks that picture in his post so he can claim later if he gets put under pressure, or fakes a shot.
He actually placed that picture in his post, after he was pressured as well. I think it's so that if the wagon on him actually picked up speed, he could claim.
When LSB claimed his role, GM counter-claimed, in order to cause a mislynch. If LSB flips town, Scum GM still knows that Justice Vig is a role, and can claim that Ver put in similar roles with different names to punish claimers. He can then claim RB or that his target was protted in the morning when he fails to deliver a shot, or if scum is really ballsy, they can shoot one of their own or something.
The only thing that doesn't make sense about this, is that this would be close to trading 1 for 1 with town, because in the folow-up, GM is likely to die if he's scum. However, it seems likely GM would be put under lots of pressure, and potentially be killed if he was unable to deliver day 2. Especially after pleading for more time, and then it makes more sense to try to kill a vig by lynch on Day 1, if we was on course to a vig shot himself, anyways.
This is assuming GM is scum, though. I actually think there's a 50-50 chance between them about who's telling the truth (assuming they're not scum). GM's picture breadcrumb means nothing to me, because he hasn't done anything to prove his role. It's like what Ace always talks about, with breadcrumbs being useless before you flip. WBG did something similar in Mini Mafia X, going jk jk jk, and then claiming Jailkeeper. Town just ate that one up, too.
This is pretty sweet theory-craft. If only one of GM and LSB are scum, it's reasonable to assume it's true. This really hurts mafias fakeclaim potential. Claiming duplicates is much worse, and they have to wait for another townie to say what it is exactly.
LSB sure does go down with some manner. Don't risk it though, we have a good day 1 lynch here, no need to brew uncertainty.
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On December 22 2011 13:38 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 13:16 prplhz wrote:
It's not like this game at any point has been impressive in terms of activity. wow, this is ironic coming from you. What have you done all game? RNG VE? You have no room to talk when it comes to activity. Why are you assuming there are 3 scum, wiggles, when the total mafia number is listed at 4?
Hey, I don't have to take that. I've been busy, but I've still been reasonably active, I've tried to contribute and I've tried to be transparent. There are a ton of people in this thread who have been less active than me, your case that no one bought into because it wasn't really that good doesn't make you the Emperor of Activityville. I'm up to date on the thread, I have a ton of notes and I have been around sporadically to comment on things, I didn't just post a single post and then left.
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On December 22 2011 13:46 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 13:38 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 22 2011 13:16 prplhz wrote:
It's not like this game at any point has been impressive in terms of activity. wow, this is ironic coming from you. What have you done all game? RNG VE? You have no room to talk when it comes to activity. Why are you assuming there are 3 scum, wiggles, when the total mafia number is listed at 4? Hey, I don't have to take that. I've been busy, but I've still been reasonably active, I've tried to contribute and I've tried to be transparent. There are a ton of people in this thread who have been less active than me, your case that no one bought into because it wasn't really that good doesn't make you the Emperor of Activityville. I'm up to date on the thread, I have a ton of notes and I have been around sporadically to comment on things, I didn't just post a single post and then left.
what are you talking about? LSB is getting lynched.
I have been by far the most vocal advocate of getting him lynched. You have done nothing and your vote has been wasted.
You have a ton of notes? Really? Mind sharing some of them with us?
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I'm inclined to believe GM's claim. He has no reason to counterclaim at this point if he is scum, there's no real gain to it for scum to fake that.
Likewise LSB's claim makes no sense for scum either unless he has a night role that he want to use before death. That their role names are different should absolutely not be factored in as you can be sure Ver would have named identical roles different things especially after the debacle of the previous Incognito game where people were using role names and abilities to try to determine alignment.
What they've both claimed is a role that is impossible to fulfil as scum.
At this point I'd rather lynch Chezinu or Foolishness, both of whom have shown that despite prodding neither is posting with Town's interests at heart. Chezinu is being blatantly anti-Town with his posting still under the disguise of "Chezinu is Chezinu."
10 minutes to lynch, are any of you willing to consolidate on one or the other?
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On December 22 2011 13:41 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 13:37 Foolishness wrote:On December 22 2011 13:36 prplhz wrote:
I'm going to venture asking Foolishness a question.
Is LSB town? I don't know. What I do know is that LSB is being responsible, and GMarshal is not. - You don't buy into the idea that GMarshal would never claim to be busy when he's actually just lurking because he doesn't want to say anything because he's scum?
- By "being responsible" I hope you're not talking about "responsibility points", but about how LSB is actually around to defend himself while GMarshal is not?
I numbered my question so it would be very easy for you to answer!
How kind of you!
1) I don't know and don't care. This is a game of logic, not emotion. I am not swayed by emotional arguments so his "I've been busy" means nothing to me. It doesn't mean I think he's mafia, I just don't take it into account and ignore it.
2) You are correct.
Order of events and time stamps are very important. GMarshal's breadcrumb should not be factored into anything because he's done it plenty of times before and it's not unreasonable to think he would do it as either alignment.
Now consider you are a suicidal vigi (basically what GM claims to be). You see LSB claim the exact role except with a different title. Are you going to blatantly counter claim without giving it a second thought? No of course not. Ver could have made two different names for the same role (someone already mentioned this). You would at least think about it before counter claiming. But most importantly, LSB was still going to get lynched. Nobody had said anything about being convinced by his claim. It is reasonable to assume that we would have still lynched LSB for lack of better target. If GM thought he might be replacement lynch, he would at least wait until people started voting for him. This is what I mean when I say he isn't being responsible.
I've gotten confirmation from Ver though. The mafia are given a list of roles AND role descriptions. This changes things a little.
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##Unvote: GMarshal
##Vote: LSB
To avoid random vote-switches to no-lynch.
@Above: I don't think there's enough time, or enough players around.
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On December 22 2011 13:51 SamuelLJackson wrote:
I'm inclined to believe GM's claim. He has no reason to counterclaim at this point if he is scum, there's no real gain to it for scum to fake that.
Likewise LSB's claim makes no sense for scum either unless he has a night role that he want to use before death. That their role names are different should absolutely not be factored in as you can be sure Ver would have named identical roles different things especially after the debacle of the previous Incognito game where people were using role names and abilities to try to determine alignment.
What they've both claimed is a role that is impossible to fulfil as scum.
At this point I'd rather lynch Chezinu or Foolishness, both of whom have shown that despite prodding neither is posting with Town's interests at heart. Chezinu is being blatantly anti-Town with his posting still under the disguise of "Chezinu is Chezinu."
10 minutes to lynch, are any of you willing to consolidate on one or the other?
did you forget that mafia are told about the blue roles?
How can we be sure about the claims with that in mind? I agree that GM would probably not CC if he was scum. But, this is tricky because mafia know the blues.
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On December 22 2011 13:53 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 13:51 SamuelLJackson wrote:
I'm inclined to believe GM's claim. He has no reason to counterclaim at this point if he is scum, there's no real gain to it for scum to fake that.
Likewise LSB's claim makes no sense for scum either unless he has a night role that he want to use before death. That their role names are different should absolutely not be factored in as you can be sure Ver would have named identical roles different things especially after the debacle of the previous Incognito game where people were using role names and abilities to try to determine alignment.
What they've both claimed is a role that is impossible to fulfil as scum.
At this point I'd rather lynch Chezinu or Foolishness, both of whom have shown that despite prodding neither is posting with Town's interests at heart. Chezinu is being blatantly anti-Town with his posting still under the disguise of "Chezinu is Chezinu."
10 minutes to lynch, are any of you willing to consolidate on one or the other? did you forget that mafia are told about the blue roles? How can we be sure about the claims with that in mind? I agree that GM would probably not CC if he was scum. But, this is tricky because mafia know the blues.
It has nothing to do with the roles. Do you understand what GM is claiming? It is not like DT or Medic, it is impossible for scum to fulfil the role he is claiming. Sure he can fake RB every night but unless there's more than one RBer that means scum can only really RB their kills (and if one is Medic saved they're screwed doing that) and when the RBer dies GM is screwed.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Please remember, mafia are given a list of blues AND their role description
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On December 22 2011 13:55 SamuelLJackson wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 13:53 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 22 2011 13:51 SamuelLJackson wrote:
I'm inclined to believe GM's claim. He has no reason to counterclaim at this point if he is scum, there's no real gain to it for scum to fake that.
Likewise LSB's claim makes no sense for scum either unless he has a night role that he want to use before death. That their role names are different should absolutely not be factored in as you can be sure Ver would have named identical roles different things especially after the debacle of the previous Incognito game where people were using role names and abilities to try to determine alignment.
What they've both claimed is a role that is impossible to fulfil as scum.
At this point I'd rather lynch Chezinu or Foolishness, both of whom have shown that despite prodding neither is posting with Town's interests at heart. Chezinu is being blatantly anti-Town with his posting still under the disguise of "Chezinu is Chezinu."
10 minutes to lynch, are any of you willing to consolidate on one or the other? did you forget that mafia are told about the blue roles? How can we be sure about the claims with that in mind? I agree that GM would probably not CC if he was scum. But, this is tricky because mafia know the blues. It has nothing to do with the roles. Do you understand what GM is claiming? It is not like DT or Medic, it is impossible for scum to fulfil the role he is claiming. Sure he can fake RB every night but unless there's more than one RBer that means scum can only really RB their kills (and if one is Medic saved they're screwed doing that) and when the RBer dies GM is screwed.
The problem is if he has a scum role. For example, if he's the RB, he can claim RB each night, and people will (hopefully not) let him live. However, just by living, he's doing scum a service. Same thing if he has any other role, whether it's a framer, scum-vig, or whatever. Letting a scum fake-vig live lets them use their ability at least one night, and if he claims RB, then he gets to live multiple nights and continue to use his power. It's beneficial to just continue to live for them.
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United States2186 Posts
Day is over. I believe LSB will be lynched let me double check everything. Night post coming shortly.
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Addendum:
That's why I want to hear what people will do if GM claims RB or that his target was protected in the morning. I'd rather not let him live for multiple days, possibly on minimal contributions, just by claiming RB (Which is likely to happen)
So, we're going to have to judge him based on his contributions. If he doesn't pick up his game, and start to give us concrete analysis, then I'm not going to sit back and let him live night after night claiming RB.
@GM, I want you to contribute more. Give me scum, or I'll hang you.
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(That's assuming LSB doesn't flip red right now, because I find it very unlikely that they're both red, though we should still keep it in mind, and GM should still contribute anyways)
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Yes but put yourself in scum shoes, what is there for GM to gain by claiming that role? He was not the one about to get lynched, LSB was.
It's past lynch deadline now, all we can do is wait for LSB's flip.
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United States2095 Posts
I agree with Samuel L here. Really worried about GM. MrWiggles, why did you post that you find it very unlikely that they're both red? Don't you mean its impossible there both red? Your post up there seems a bit weird to me.
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On December 22 2011 14:06 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I agree with Samuel L here. Really worried about GM. MrWiggles, why did you post that you find it very unlikely that they're both red? Don't you mean its impossible there both red? Your post up there seems a bit weird to me.
IF LSB flips red, I find it unlikely that GM is red too. Why would you counter-claim you fake-claiming scumbuddy with the same role and a different role name to attract a bunch of attention to yourself and get your scumbuddy lynched only to not be able to produce results from your fake-claim except by killing another of your scum-buddies? That would make very little sense. It's highly unlikely, but still a (remote) possibility. I don't see how my post doesn't make sense.
Also, I think the motivation for a scum GM to CC is that he was under a lot of suspicion. He was one of the names that was being thrown around to be lynched, and by pleading for more time, he's forced to produce results tomorrow, but if he's scum, he won't actually be able to do so. So, he CCs LSB instead, kills a blue role and causes a mislynch day 1, and then people will probably be content to let him live as long as he keeps claiming RB.
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United States2186 Posts
Night 1
After much rioting and dueling, things finally settled down as LSB was meekly led to the noose. The crowd eagerly gathered around to see a happy spectacle. However, their hopes were dashed as LSB the innocent was lynched!
Night Actions are due by 05:00 GMT (+00:00) tomorrow.
Day 1 Final Votecount
On December 17 2011 12:44 ZBot wrote:Day 1 Vote Count
With 20 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.Current votes: LSB (12): wherebugsgo, SamuelLJackson, Jackal58, BloodyC0bbler, VisceraEyes, syllogism, - VisceraEyes, VisceraEyes, Palmar, Foolishness, bumatlarge, Liquid`Sheth, GMarshal, - Liquid`Sheth, GGQ, prplhz, - Foolishness, Mr. WigglesGMarshal (2): Palmar, - Palmar, GGQ, VisceraEyes, - VisceraEyes, kitaman27, Liquid`Sheth, - GGQ, Foolishness, Mr. Wiggles, - kitaman27, - Mr. WigglesL (1): chaoser, Palmar, - PalmarPalmar (1): VisceraEyes, - VisceraEyes, VisceraEyes, Chezinu, bumatlarge, - VisceraEyes, L, - bumatlarge, - ChezinuFoolishness (1): VisceraEyes, - VisceraEyes, kitaman27SamuelLJackson (1): GMarshal, bumatlarge, Chezinu, VisceraEyes, - bumatlarge, - VisceraEyes, - Chezinu, LSB, - GMarshal, - LSB, ChezinuChezinu (1): RebirthOfLeGenDVisceraEyes (1): prplhz, LSB, - prplhzkitaman27 (0): GMarshal, - GMarshalBloodyC0bbler (0): Mr. Wiggles, - Mr. WigglesLiquid`Sheth (0): kitaman27, - kitaman27Voting ends at December 22 2011 14:00. (It's over.)
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www.paintinghere.com/UploadPic/Frederic%20Remington/big/It%20was%20to%20be%20a%20lasso%20duel%20to%20the%20death.JPG)
