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On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote:
I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information.
Hmm, you have a point: I hadn't noticed that. Still, in practical terms, I don't think it makes a huge difference: if we lynch CDR and he turns green, the next lynch would probably be infundibulum; if we lynch infundibulum and he turns green, the next lynch would probably be CDR. After that, we'll have our information anyway, so the main question is simply which one is most likely to be Mafia: CDRdude or jtan/infundibulum. It's close to a toss-up, IMO.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Oh shit, I go to a tournament and forget about TL Mafia for a bit, then I come back and suddenly 1999999981 days have passed. 
It's good to see qrs has basically done what I wanted to do originally, i.e. assemble the evidence that many people had likely forgotten about.  It's also ironic that in the past he was almost constantly arguing with Ace and then with the later clue-analysers, but now he is our best one.
Although Wysp / his associate pointed the finger at ahrara_, qrs's analysis trumps their reputation, imo. To verify it, I looked to see how many known mafia voted for Ace in the election. There was only one: Mandalor. Furthermore, he practically got himself lynched by claiming the Detective role, then went on to say:
On March 24 2008 06:52 Mandalor wrote:
Hey I voted for Ace as well! lol
Anyway, if he was the one and only mafioso to vote for Ace then I wouldn't be surprised. So I'll go with qrs and vote for infun-whatever.
ydg: Are you sure that Mandalor list isn't one of the lists that was wrong? Where did you find it, and can you search further ahead in the topic to see if it was later taken back?
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 17 2008 14:43 Chuiu wrote:
Ha ha funny. D:
EDIT: Oh yeah, no new players today and I will be mostly AWOL the 17th while I celebrate being born for the umpteenth time.
Woah, you've been born more than once?
Happy Birthday! 
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On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote:
I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information.
You bring up a really good point. Honestly, you've almost convinced me to lynch CDRdude, but it's against the rules for me to vote for that guy.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote:
I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information.
imo the voting patterns clue holds far more weight than this strategic benefit. This is because the clue makes it very unlikely that CDRdude is red and infun is green.
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True, but if we die this next day, who will carry on these investigations!
Uh I'm sure the Mandalor list Ace posted was wrong, since it assumes that CDRdude is mafia.
The real Mandalor list is:
qrs
ahrara_
Lysithea
Ninja4ever.
Romance_us
NatsuTerran
iNfuNdiBuLuM
SoMuchBetter
1/8
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 19 2008 01:50 CDRdude wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote:
I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information. You bring up a really good point. Honestly, you've almost convinced me to lynch CDRdude, but it's against the rules for me to vote for that guy.
Random fact: in a previous mafia game on StarEdit.net, it used to be to be legal to vote for yourself to be lynched. However, this rule was changed after a game where the vote was tied between a mafioso and a towny, and both would have been lynched in that case (because of their rule for handling ties), but then AT THE LAST MOMENT the towny VOTES FOR HIMSELF and saves the mafioso! His reasoning: he didn't think the mafioso guy was mafia, so he wanted to save him. 
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What the hell? I made a post here with some analysis on infundiblum and it never showed up. Well basically what I said was that infundiblum's defense of why he voted for randombum was ripped off other people's posts... mine included.
Wysp is right tho. I am mafia =)
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 19 2008 02:38 ahrara_ wrote:
What the hell? I made a post here with some analysis on infundiblum and it never showed up. Well basically what I said was that infundiblum's defense of why he voted for randombum was ripped off other people's posts... mine included.
Wysp is right tho. I am mafia =)
Uh... what?
Edit: apparently you used to have a profile pic before, judging from the "TLMafia alive users" blog. What happened to it?
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Anyway, one thing that troubles me is that we can't pin any of the clues to iNfuNdiBuLuM's name (which means a funnel-shaped organ in the body) or his profile (a guy wearing a viking hat with a propeller on top).
Based on the clues that qrs posted, here are the general traits of each mafioso:
Mr. Orange: Almost always cuts the phone lines of his victim.
Mr. Blue: Always kills people by stabbing them (e.g. with an umbrella tip on Day 7), shredding them (e.g. in a car shredder on Day 11), or generally cutting them up.
Mr Blonde: Has great speed and agility. Was even hanging from the ceiling on Day 2.
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On July 19 2008 02:38 Bill307 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2008 02:38 ahrara_ wrote:
What the hell? I made a post here with some analysis on infundiblum and it never showed up. Well basically what I said was that infundiblum's defense of why he voted for randombum was ripped off other people's posts... mine included.
Wysp is right tho. I am mafia =) Uh... what? Edit: apparently you used to have a profile pic before, judging from the "TLMafia alive users" blog. What happened to it?
I got a job and started blogging about it. Didn't want to risk being identified. If anybody wants the pic tho, they're free to PM me.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On June 11 2008 13:39 ahrara_ wrote:
when I am the last mafia lynched I am going to laugh
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Ahrara has been saying shit like that for for a while now. don't know why though; it's pretty clear he isn't actually mafia
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
So I'm going through the non-Mandalor list to see if I can match anyone up with the profiles for the remaining mafia.
The TLMafia alive users blog has been very helpful. qrs's list of clues for the remaining mafia has also been a great asset. 
Also, recall Plexa's guide to Mafia clue analysis. He stated very clearly that exactly one aspect of a mafioso is used to generate the clues for them! E.g. if someone's profile pic is used to generate clues, then their name, quote, etc. will be ignored.
HotZhot
+ Show Spoiler +
- Photo shows an animal or wolf-like creature. The creature looks like it'd be a good fit for someone who is very fast and agile, like Mr. Blonde, and who could potentially hang off of a ceiling (Day 2). In addition, Mr. Blonde often appears out of nowhere (e.g. Day 1, Day 2, Day 17) which would be easier if he were mostly-black, as is the character in HotZhot's photo. On Day 2, Mr. Blonde hides in darkness and isn't visible until the lights are turned on, which again makes sense if he is black.
- Ignoring other attributes since his photo seems like the best evidence against him, by far.
- Voted for nemy on Day 18.
Dr.Dragoon
+ Show Spoiler +
- No pic or public profile.
- Quote seems irrelevant.
- "Dragoon is the traditional name for a soldier trained to fight on foot but who transports himself on horseback." (from Wikipedia) Doesn't seem to fit any of the clues.
CDRdude
+ Show Spoiler +
- No photo and no public profile.
- Quote talks about a lurker so he can possibly be linked to Mr. Blue for some of the same reasons as jtan and DTDominion (see below). However, only jtan can be linked to the attack-dodging aspect of Mr. Blue's clues.
Fen: deceased.
Puosu
+ Show Spoiler +- No photo and no quote. - Public profile shows ,.-'´^`'-,.,.-'´^`'-,.,.-'´^`'-,. which IIRC someone long ago mentioned might be related to Mr. Blue's chainsaws and buzzsaws. However, it doesn't seem to fit Day 7 when Mr. Blue stabbed with an umbrella tip instead. - Definition of name seems unhelpful. Nothing inspiring comes up after a Google Image search, either.
KF91
+ Show Spoiler +
- No photo or public profile.
- Quote seems useless.
- Google Image search for name turns up pictures of hard disks. Only possible link seems to be "91" being similar to "911" and Mr. Orange's phoneline-cutting to prevent people from dialing 911.
- Voted for nemy on Day 18.
MasterOfChaos: deceased.
Kuja900
+ Show Spoiler +
- No photo and no public profile.
- Quote seems useless.
- Name "Kuja900" turns up nothing, however "Kuja" is a villian from FF9. His appearance might fit Mr. Blonde's speed and agility, but it's a stretch, and HotZhot's photo fits Mr. Blonde much much better imo.
KorvspaD
+ Show Spoiler +- No photo and no public profile. - Quote doesn't match any of the mafia profiles. - For his name, the best I could find was this Wikipedia page (translated from Swedish to English). Apparently there is an expression in Swedish involving the word "Korvspad" which means "clear as day". This doesn't seem to fit any of the mafia.
Ziel
+ Show Spoiler +
- No public profile.
- Quote doesn't fit any mafia.
- Photo shows the ultralisk icon, which might connect Ziel with Mr. Blue and his tendency to kill his victims by cutting them up.
- Ziel is evidently a German word meaning "goal" or "target", which doesn't seem to fit any mafia.
jtan
+ Show Spoiler +
- As we all know, his photo shows marines microing against a lurker. His tie to Mr. Blue is that Mr. Blue's weapons are analogous to the lurker's spines. In addition, there is sometimes a theme of attacks being dodged or the victim getting away unscathed (e.g. Day 6, possibly Day 7, possibly Day 9) which is analogous to the marines in the photo dodging the lurker's attack. Furthermore, there are occasions where Mr. Blue cannot be seen (e.g. Day 10, possibly Day 16), analogous to the lurker being burrowed. All things considered, this is a very strong link.
- Ignoring other attributes since his photo seems like the best evidence against him, by far.
- Voted for nemy on Day 18.
RowdierBob
+ Show Spoiler +
- No public profile.
- Quote doesn't fit any mafia.
- Photo shows a guy poking another guy in the eye, with the caption "life is pain". A very weak connection with stabbing or other painful killing. Furthermore, the mafia's kills are always going to be very painful.
- Name doesn't fit any mafia. None stand out as "rowdy".
DTDominion
+ Show Spoiler +
- No photo, quote, or public profile.
- Name "DT" can be linked to some of the same things as jtan's photo, except for the attack-dodging aspect.
BuGzlToOnl
+ Show Spoiler +
- Quote, photo, and public profile do not seem to fit any mafia.
- Voted for bwdero rather than nemy, so I'm not going in-depth into his profile attributes.
Lastly, I just noticed something odd. Here is the list of people who voted for nemy on Day 18:
nemy - 7
jtan - strong Mr. Blue suspect
hotzhot - strong Mr. Blonde suspect
kf91 - weak link to Mr. Orange via "911"
infinity21 - killed on Day 19
siz.fantasy - killed on Day 19
ahrara_ - keeps calling himself mafia for some reason
iNfuNdiBuLuM - about to by lynched
Not only are 4 of our top suspects (iNfuNdiBuLuM, jtan, hotzhot, and ahrara_) on this list, but the mafia did us a favour and killed two of the people who voted for nemy! I don't understand the logic in that. Maybe it was an oversight. Maybe they want us to think the remaining people aren't mafia because the mafia wouldn't be dumb enough to narrow our choices down like that. Or maybe they just want the game to end asap as well.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
ahrara_
+ Show Spoiler +- No public profile. - Removed his photo. If anyone can find out what it used to be, then that would be great. (His word isn't good enough, obviously.) - Quote says he is from Afghanistan, which doesn't fit any of the mafia. - The only link I could find relating his name to the mafia is this: a WoW profile for Ahrara.Doomhammer. Apparently this guy is a level 60 Dwarf Hunter. Potentially this could fit Mr. Blonde, but it is a long stretch.
iNfuNdiBuLuM (edit: UPDATED)
+ Show Spoiler +
(Something to keep in mind here is that a LOT of things can be linked to Mr. Blue's killing methods. However, only jtan's photo is linked to other aspects of Mr. Blue's clues.)
To be honest, I'm not certain iNfuNdiBuLuM will turn up red. If he does then I'll really want to know how he is associated with the remaining mafia. Maybe he changed his photo a while ago so that he wouldn't be tied to any of them?
The next time someone makes a list like araav's, they should upload each profile photo to a separate website rather than linking to the pic on TLnet (or have both). That way, we can preserve players' original photos, and see when they've been changed.
To be honest, if I were to vote SOLELY based on Night clues, my votes would be:
jtan strong link to Mr. Blue
hotzhot strong link to Mr. Blonde (EDIT: iNfuNdiBuLuM now has a 100x better connection with Mr. Blonde)
KF91 - weak link to Mr. Orange, but it's the only link to Mr. Orange that I can think of
The trouble is, we know 1/4 on the Showtime! list is mafia. CDRdude is the only one we can pin any Night clues on so far, however the clues that can be pinned on him are linked more strongly to jtan.
Then we see that iNfuNdiBuLuM is on the Showtime! list, and on the list of voters to elect randombum, and on the list of voters to lynch nemy. So despite having no Night clues pointing to him, he's still a likely mafioso.
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I think infun will turn green, but eh.
I'm glad you agree that Hotzhot is blonde. I suggest, after we figure out which of infun/cdr/jtan is mafia that we lynch hotzhot.
Also, see my suggestion about lysithea. He also voted for nemy, though he was a tad late.
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I remember ahrara's profile picture. Just a picture of him: the one that you can still see in the TL gallery. Re infundibulum, if he turns out to be Mafia, I would link him to Mr. Blonde, as I said earlier. Reasoning: the propeller on his head=can fly=Mr. Blonde (speed, "jetted", escaped through a window, sometimes hangs out on the ceiling).
On July 19 2008 05:22 Bill307 wrote:
Also, recall Plexa's guide to Mafia clue analysis. He stated very clearly that exactly one aspect of a mafioso is used to generate the clues for them! E.g. if someone's profile pic is used to generate clues, then their name, quote, etc. will be ignored.
Plexa was a very good clue analyst, but he was not right about everything, and I'm still not sure where he got this from. Take suresh0t for instance: the main clue against him related to his name, but there were a couple of things that seemed to relate to his signature and his picture. Maybe all of those other 'clues' were really nothing, but unless Chuiu has said somewhere that he only uses one aspect of a mafioso to generate clues, I don't think we can assume it.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Imo, the "wofl" in HotZhot's photo looks a loooot more like someone/something that would be fast and agile than the big-armed viking guy in infun's photo. Edit: I'm going to take another look at the Mr. Blonde clues, though, to see how well they fit a man who can fly.
Well, in either case, I'm sure we'll know who he was (if he turns up red) once Night 2000000000 comes to an end.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 19 2008 05:56 ydg wrote:
I think infun will turn green, but eh.
I'm glad you agree that Hotzhot is blonde. I suggest, after we figure out which of infun/cdr/jtan is mafia that we lynch hotzhot.
Also, see my suggestion about lysithea. He also voted for nemy, though he was a tad late.
Just read it. His name meaning "moon of Jupiter" doesn't fit well with the mafia, imo. Apparently Lysithea comes from Greek mythology, but I could find very little info on her.
HOWEVER, his quote, ["Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee." - Muhammad Ali], kind of describes the abilities of Mr. Blonde. I think HotZhot is a better candidate, but only by a small margin.
I agree that we need to look bigger-picture at Mr. Orange's theme. i.e. it's more than just cutting phone lines. Maybe something involving silence, as you said. I disagree with the "space" theme, though.
Edit: Mr. Orange's theme might involve locking people down so that they cannot escape or call for help.
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EPT
, I suggest we go for jtan next because of the connection with lurkers and Mr. Blue. (And jtan's profile pic shows marines attacking a lurker.)
