|
On March 08 2012 12:55 Adam4167 wrote:
##Vote Bluelightz
On March 08 2012 13:26 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
It is a wonderous thing to see, when a scum finally realises that he should bus, but far, far too late.
On March 08 2012 18:14 Bluelightz wrote:
Hmm, I think that there is that chance of Adam is town......
On March 08 2012 18:19 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 18:14 Bluelightz wrote:
Hmm, I think that there is that chance of Adam is town......
You're right and if you were scum, you'd be sailing me down the river right now. So I think you're town. ##Unvote
Could you guys BE any more obvious.
|
On March 04 2012 20:33 Palmar wrote:
There is no sensible reason to disbelieve pandain's claim, so AKCT is going to have to claim. Now, he can't really claim medic because the chances of scum double stacking rgTS on night 1 seem very slim.
If he claims vig we lynch him, because that shot was beyond stupid.
so what's left are the tracker and the watcher. I just don't think we have multiple of those in such a small setup. He can't exactly claim watcher either because that way he'd know who visited rgTS, so I guess he's going to counterclaim tracker or something? Or try to make us believe we have more than one?
For this reason I am going to disbelieve any claim he claims. The only reasonable claim for him from a balance/viability standpoint i claiming watcher and point to a random townie and getting that player lynched, but in this case we lynch him anyway, and before we lynch the guy he points a finger at.
Pretty sure the was Palmar breadcrumbing his watcher claim. I can't find any Night 1 result breadcrumb though. Possibly this:
On March 07 2012 09:05 Palmar wrote:
I am a soft kitty
On March 07 2012 09:07 Palmar wrote:sometimes I just wanna cuddle 
But thats either spam or too cryptic for me.
|
On March 08 2012 21:34 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 13:26 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
It is a wonderous thing to see, when a scum finally realises that he should bus, but far, far too late.
Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 18:14 Bluelightz wrote:
Hmm, I think that there is that chance of Adam is town......
Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 18:19 Adam4167 wrote:On March 08 2012 18:14 Bluelightz wrote:
Hmm, I think that there is that chance of Adam is town......
You're right and if you were scum, you'd be sailing me down the river right now. So I think you're town. ##Unvote Could you guys BE any more obvious.
OK, I put to you a hypothetical. What direction do you plan on going tomorrow after I flip town? Obviously if I flip scum, you're going to want to go after bluelightz, but humor me for a minute and tell me what happens when I flip town.
|
Alright sorry Adam for going black :S
I think that AKCT is scum, because of him just throwing out a vote like that with no reasoning at ALL.
##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea
I will check in again tommorow b4 the deadline to see if I need to change my vote to someone more worthy.
|
Heh.
Just cos I didn't put much reasoning in my post (which is a fallacy, incidentally, there is plenty of reason in my post, more then enough to find you scummy, I simply said it in fewer words then you're prolly used to), doesn't mean i didn't have any reason at all.
I think you are scum for a large variety of reasons, and mr stating them here would simply be repeating what has been done to the death today. Also, I'm on my phone right now* so it's much harder to make a wall on you.
*I owe an apology here: I have not been very active. Without trying to make excuses, basically my laptop decided to have a hissy fit and explode on me, and pretty much went out of commission. I've taken it in for repairs and it's finally repaired, and I should be picking it up today. Sorry >_<
|
Alright I think your town now, Im gonna read some filters then if I find anything interesting I'll vote for the guy
and... unvote akct
##Unvote
|
Can we have an updated player count on who's alive?
|
I'm gonna vote myself as a placeholder vote right now, I will try and vote for someone else tommorow
##Vote: Bluelightz
sidenote: good night people.
|
Current Vote Count:
Adam4167 -4
Deconduo
Paperscraps
Snarfs
Probulous
Bluelightz -2
Bluelightz
A Killer Cuppa Tea
Adam4167
Snarfs
Paperscraps -1
Deconduo
Pandain
A Killer Cuppa Tea -0
Bluelightz
Probulous -0
Adam4167
If there is a mistake, please let me know. Day ends in roughly 10 and a half hours. Please remember to vote before then, if you have not done so.
|
On March 08 2012 21:45 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 20:33 Palmar wrote:
There is no sensible reason to disbelieve pandain's claim, so AKCT is going to have to claim. Now, he can't really claim medic because the chances of scum double stacking rgTS on night 1 seem very slim.
If he claims vig we lynch him, because that shot was beyond stupid.
so what's left are the tracker and the watcher. I just don't think we have multiple of those in such a small setup. He can't exactly claim watcher either because that way he'd know who visited rgTS, so I guess he's going to counterclaim tracker or something? Or try to make us believe we have more than one?
For this reason I am going to disbelieve any claim he claims. The only reasonable claim for him from a balance/viability standpoint i claiming watcher and point to a random townie and getting that player lynched, but in this case we lynch him anyway, and before we lynch the guy he points a finger at. Pretty sure the was Palmar breadcrumbing his watcher claim. I can't find any Night 1 result breadcrumb though. Possibly this: But thats either spam or too cryptic for me.
As I pointed out before, soft kitty could easily be serial killer. Sometimes I just wanna cuddle? Maybe he's pretending to say something the serial killer would say because he has a hunch. Just guessing at that one.
I realize now though that I could easily have got both the serial killer and the mafia wanting to kill Palmar night 2 by pointing that out . Serial killer because they want to make sure if he knows he isn't able to tell anyone. Mafia because it could look like he himself is claiming serial killer. If that's true, I'm sorry Palmar.
|
|
|
I have voted for Adam as well
The "soft kitty" comment by Palmar is interesting, but I just thought it was Palmar being Palmar. I can't seem to find anything to tie it to watcher.
@Snarfs: If Pandain or AKCT is scum, do you think the other is scum necessarily?
Deconduo looking/finding breadcrumbs from Palmar seems town to me, but I still have reservations on Deconduo actually being town.
Pandain right now is looking bad, being gone from the thread so long. But I will hold judgement and see if he posts anything relevant before lynching time.
Bluelightz has been playing weird the past day or so. (more weird than usual lol) The constant vote changing is the main thing that strikes me as odd. Although that can be attributed to him being easily swayed by anything pretty much. His self-vote is intriguing to say the least, even if it is a place holder. Sometimes I think Bluelightz is so smart that he has mastered the act of the fool, but other times I just do not know.
TheToast has not voted yet, so I am interested to hear what he thinks. Null read on TheToast right now.
Adam is a conundrum.
On March 08 2012 12:55 Adam4167 wrote:
After rereading the thread with no assumptions i still get back to where I was before, a nagging feeling that Prob will flip red. That's my read, take it or leave it. If you are red Prob, then you've done a great job of convincing everyone else that you're town, so much so that I'd say this game is probably unrecoverable.
Upon second reading assuming Prob is town, it is probably the best move to kill Bluelightz. Toast is exactly right, he could flip either way, hes a permanent null read for me, but via process of elimination, he looks good to die. I don't want to lynch Pandain, Paperscraps, Snarfs, TheToast or Probulous (still operating under the assumption that he is town) which leaves me with Bluelightz, deconduo and AKCT.
I have some of the same conclusions as this post. My read on Probulous is pretty much the exact same thing. I just get a town vibe from this post.
On March 08 2012 22:07 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 21:34 deconduo wrote:On March 08 2012 12:55 Adam4167 wrote:
##Vote Bluelightz On March 08 2012 13:26 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
It is a wonderous thing to see, when a scum finally realises that he should bus, but far, far too late.
On March 08 2012 18:14 Bluelightz wrote:
Hmm, I think that there is that chance of Adam is town......
On March 08 2012 18:19 Adam4167 wrote:On March 08 2012 18:14 Bluelightz wrote:
Hmm, I think that there is that chance of Adam is town......
You're right and if you were scum, you'd be sailing me down the river right now. So I think you're town. ##Unvote Could you guys BE any more obvious. OK, I put to you a hypothetical. What direction do you plan on going tomorrow after I flip town? Obviously if I flip scum, you're going to want to go after bluelightz, but humor me for a minute and tell me what happens when I flip town.
This post I am not sure about. Adam has been hard for me to read all game. I still lean scum though.
AKCT I think is scum as well. Which makes me wonder, why did Bluelightz unvoted him so quickly?
|
Oh also, I didn't analyze Snarfs and Probu, because they are my strongest town reads. Although Probu has been overly town and sometimes that is scummy, but I dont think it is the case this game.
|
On March 09 2012 02:12 Paperscraps wrote:
@Snarfs: If Pandain or AKCT is scum, do you think the other is scum necessarily?
No, I don't think that if one of them should turn up scum that we should just assume the other one is. I do think it's evidence against the other person though.
|
|
|
On March 09 2012 05:14 Pandain wrote:
hmmmm
>.>
|
Before I go on, I want everyone to remember that this is the work of 24 hours of constant lurking, re reading, re-re reading, going through each filter again and again, rereading thread in entirety, and even night time pondering.
I don't believe Paperscraps. I feel people are beliving he is town merely because he claimed vig. Everyone seems to have forgotten this role....
On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Vigilante: You are a Vigilante! Once per game, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit.
This doesn't mean its scum, but it does make us remember that there are now three possibilities for Paperscraps to be:
1. Serial killer.
2. Mafia Vigilante
3. Vigilante
Him claiming vigilante in no way makes him town. Rather, we must analyze two things in determining his alignment:
1. His reasoning/motivation behind shooting Jackal
2. His posts/votes this game(Normal Analysis)
I'll be posting more once I make sense of everything.....
|
On March 09 2012 06:16 Pandain wrote:Before I go on, I want everyone to remember that this is the work of 24 hours of constant lurking, re reading, re-re reading, going through each filter again and again, rereading thread in entirety, and even night time pondering. I don't believe Paperscraps. I feel people are beliving he is town merely because he claimed vig. Everyone seems to have forgotten this role.... Show nested quote +On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Vigilante: You are a Vigilante! Once per game, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit.
This doesn't mean its scum, but it does make us remember that there are now three possibilities for Paperscraps to be: 1. Serial killer.2. Mafia Vigilante 3. Vigilante Him claiming vigilante in no way makes him town. Rather, we must analyze two things in determining his alignment: 1. His reasoning/motivation behind shooting Jackal 2. His posts/votes this game(Normal Analysis) I'll be posting more once I make sense of everything.....
Don't forget
4. Mafia Goon/Medic
|
Decondou I think your town and value your opinion, what do you make of paperscraps claim?
|
On March 09 2012 06:16 Pandain wrote:Before I go on, I want everyone to remember that this is the work of 24 hours of constant lurking, re reading, re-re reading, going through each filter again and again, rereading thread in entirety, and even night time pondering. I don't believe Paperscraps. I feel people are beliving he is town merely because he claimed vig. Everyone seems to have forgotten this role.... Show nested quote +On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Vigilante: You are a Vigilante! Once per game, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit.
I haven't forgotten, in fact I've brought up the possibility of a mafia vig like half a dozen times. Did you even read my posts about determining if there was an SK (and why it's not possible unless we can confirm sandro's claim)?
Here's the deal, I've been reading through Paper's posts. I said before that he was leaning town in my opinion but now I'm not so sure. What I was initially looking at was his consistency:
+ Show Spoiler [lots o' quotes] +Working backwards chronologically: My top scum reads are TheToast, Jackal and Deconduo Jackal are all better lynches. I don't know if we should lynch Sandroba yet Jackal has posted no substance at all. His reaction to the Misder lynch was over done. Three people voted Misder: Deconduo, AKCT and Jackal. They all give me a scum vibe Jackal's filter takes 5 seconds to read Jackal - Has posted nothing of substance. A lot of people fosed Jackal at the end of the night. Jackal even posted right after me, so he was obviously around, but didn't post relevant material during the night.
There's clearly a lot of consistancy in pushing Jackal here. Granted that doesn't prove he's town, the whole thing could be a part of a really good strategy to cover himself as the SK. But this seems unlikely, and I think one would be hard pressed to look at the evidence and come up with that conclusion. So from this viewpoint he's looking townish.
But that doesn't explain away his terrible reads:
I can see a bit of a team forming between Decon and Jackal right now.
Now that we've seen Jackal flip, looking through some of these "reads" makes them look a lot like tunneling than actual analysis. Of all the people who've flipped, Paper at some point argued the opposite for:
Palmar is playing weird this game so far. He might be scum.
If Sandroba is mafia, then why lurk and post crap and be sure to get lynched. Does Sandroba just not care about the game? Maybe just a bored vanilla townie?
Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit
***Hmmmm, my gut tells me that Sandroba is vet *** followed by
***Inb4 people say I am scum trying to make myself look townie "if" Sandroba flips vet. ***
***The last two here are really interesting. I want to go back to something I said before. If the hit against Sandro was real, and it came from the SK: the SK would be likely to believe Sandro's vet claim. After all, the SK would know that Sandro got shot and didn't die, why wouldn't you believe the vet claim? And the SK would have a lot to gain here, by being the one to vote against Sandro (who they think is blue) they could potentially solidify themselves as town and potentially as someone with good anlysis and become relatively safe for the remainder of the game. Paper, Jackle, and AKCT were the only votes not on Sandro day 2....
To me, this radically shifts Paper's possible alignment. However this evidence swings greatly on the validity of Sandro's claim. I said before that we couldn't lynch anyone based only on that given the fact that Sandro was confirmed scum. So, for the moment, I am not comfortable supporting a lynch on Paper based on this. But consider this a strong FOS on him as the SK.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
