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Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 09 2012 23:58 GMT
#641
ooh day post coming up

Will I live or will I die? If I'm here, Bk, I am watching you. Paper and Kron you guys really need to contribute something, Blurry too. Here's to hoping!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 10 2012 00:01 GMT
#642
On January 10 2012 08:58 Probulous wrote:
ooh day post coming up

Will I live or will I die? If I'm here, Bk, I am watching you. Paper and Kron you guys really need to contribute something, Blurry too. Here's to hoping!


Prob I really hope you make it to morning, otherwise we're going to be in a rough place since you're the most active poster.
meow
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 10 2012 00:02 GMT
#643
I'm an idiot. That is twice in one game!

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 10 2012 00:19 GMT
#644
On January 10 2012 09:02 Probulous wrote:
I'm an idiot. That is twice in one game!



I was confused at first but do you mean the fact daypost is coming in one hour, not yet?

I think it's very unlikely that you, me and Jitsu would be alive after the night, but we'll see what happens.

I certainly hope I don't die yet just as I got to celebrate the victory of hanging the first scum.
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 10 2012 00:24 GMT
#645
I got the time wrong, AGAIN. Me and timezones don't mix very well.

If I die, I won't feel too bad. At least we got Sheth lynched. The others really need to pick up their game. Gonz has not posted much since last week and the new guys have posted nothing. The three of us can't carry them forever. If we lose because we get killed and the others couldn't be bothered to participate, I will be pissed at them, not myself.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 10 2012 00:39 GMT
#646
Hey all, just got home from school.

Ok onto reads and analysis.

Blurry Scum

1.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).

So to make it easy

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.



Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be.

Xeris (Kron) Null

Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read.

Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here.

CatsNHats Town

Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad.

He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob

Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town.

It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia.


"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 10 2012 00:54 GMT
#647
On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Hey all, just got home from school.

Ok onto reads and analysis.

Blurry Scum

1.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).

So to make it easy

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.



Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be.


Or he is simply sheeping. I don't see why if he was buddies with Sheth he would jump on the Sheth wagon so quickly when Cats was being pushed so hard. Essentially this comes down to WIFOM and the fact that he questioned Sheth early and voted for him early leads to place more credit in him than the others. Can you explain what you think that something is?

Xeris (Kron) Null

Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read.

Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here.


Well you are posting which is a great improvment over Gretorp. The problem I have with your case here is that you are being inconsistent. You say Blurry is scummy because he "might" have been bussing Sheth but Xeris is not even though Sheth was buddying up to him? Which is more likely, Sheth was trying to protect his scum buddy or Blurry was bussing his scum buddy for town cred? To me it makes more sense for Sheth to try and protect Xeris as long as possible, and it makes no sense for Blurry to jump on Sheth's wagon before it even got started. Why do you give Xeris more credit than Blurry?

CatsNHats Town

Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad.

He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob


That could be anyone of the lurkers too. You either forgive everyone for being newb or hold people to equal standards. Why does Cats get special treatment?

Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town.

It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia.


If mafia is not stupid (clearly they aren't) they kill either myself, Cephiro or Jitsu. That is obvious, what info does that give us?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 10 2012 00:56 GMT
#648
In fact if I had to guess, it would be either myself or Jitsu. Cephiro has enough of a bad filter to be pushed as a lynch (despite his catching of Sheth), Gonz could also be pushed given his posting habits. So I am going to go out on limb here and say that one of Me or Jitsu will be dead in the next five minutes.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Jitsu
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States929 Posts
January 10 2012 00:57 GMT
#649
I was actually a little bit curious about Gonz's posts. Check his filter.
Zerg Player in CheckMate Gaming - http://checkmategaming.webs.com/
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 10 2012 00:59 GMT
#650
Going to check Gonz's filter carefully if I survive. One minute isn't enough.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 10 2012 01:00 GMT
#651
EBWOP: Unfortunately I also think that either Prob or Jitsu is going to die, if that happens, don't give the scum the chance to push me for D3 lynch.
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
January 10 2012 01:00 GMT
#652
Day 3


[image loading]
An artist’s rendition of the events during the night.

Jitsu Felt something was wrong as he left his office. He had spent all night reviewing the case files of the murders, and he had made a major breakthrough. He was on his way to his car when he heard a scuffling sound coming from the alleyway behind him. His heart racing, he began to run. Just as he grasped the door handle, he turned around to see a dark figure looming above him.
The last thing he felt was the cold steel of a blade.
Jitsu, The Vanilla Townie, never saw it coming!


It is now Day 3! With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

The day ends on Thursday, Jan 12 1:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Jitsu
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States929 Posts
January 10 2012 01:01 GMT
#653
GG GL Town.
Zerg Player in CheckMate Gaming - http://checkmategaming.webs.com/
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 10 2012 01:02 GMT
#654
Well played Jitsu!

I will be looking into your reads real careful. You were an asset to town and if we win you will have to do with that. Chat after the game!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 10 2012 01:02 GMT
#655
GG Jitsu. You were a great townie.
meow
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 10 2012 01:02 GMT
#656
Well played Jitsu, thanks for all the contributions you made. I will certainly check into Gonz's filter now.
We will catch the mafia and avenge your death!
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 10 2012 01:04 GMT
#657
Anyone roleblocked?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 10 2012 01:08 GMT
#658
On January 10 2012 10:04 Probulous wrote:
Anyone roleblocked?


Is there a specific reason you are trying to find out? I really don't think the blues should reveal themselves yet unless they got something really useful that will pretty much win us the game.
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 10 2012 01:09 GMT
#659
On January 10 2012 10:04 Probulous wrote:
Anyone roleblocked?


Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts).
meow
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 10 2012 01:19 GMT
#660
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 10 2012 09:54 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Hey all, just got home from school.

Ok onto reads and analysis.

Blurry Scum

1.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).

So to make it easy

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.



Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be.


Or he is simply sheeping. I don't see why if he was buddies with Sheth he would jump on the Sheth wagon so quickly when Cats was being pushed so hard. Essentially this comes down to WIFOM and the fact that he questioned Sheth early and voted for him early leads to place more credit in him than the others. Can you explain what you think that something is?

Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy.

Show nested quote +
Xeris (Kron) Null

Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read.

Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here.


Well you are posting which is a great improvment over Gretorp. The problem I have with your case here is that you are being inconsistent. You say Blurry is scummy because he "might" have been bussing Sheth but Xeris is not even though Sheth was buddying up to him? Which is more likely, Sheth was trying to protect his scum buddy or Blurry was bussing his scum buddy for town cred? To me it makes more sense for Sheth to try and protect Xeris as long as possible, and it makes no sense for Blurry to jump on Sheth's wagon before it even got started. Why do you give Xeris more credit than Blurry?

I agree with your analysis here Prob. I just think Xeris (Kron) is a non-issue at the moment due to inactivity. That is the main reason why I think Blurry>Xeris in the scum department. Also Sheth could be buddy-buddy with Xeris, just to get us to do a mis-lynch.

Show nested quote +
CatsNHats Town

Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad.

He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob


That could be anyone of the lurkers too. You either forgive everyone for being newb or hold people to equal standards. Why does Cats get special treatment?

I see that my reasoning is definitely flawed here. I will re-read Cats filter.

Show nested quote +
Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town.

It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia.


If mafia is not stupid (clearly they aren't) they kill either myself, Cephiro or Jitsu. That is obvious, what info does that give us?

You are right this doesn't bring anything new to the table, other than showing you where I stand. I will do better in the future to be more objective.


My answers are underlined.

Prob: What is your read on Cats right now? Who are you thinking are scummy?
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
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