Basterd Mini Mafia - Page 28

On July 01 2013 07:00 mkfuba07 wrote:
Oh wow. I wake up and there's over 100 more posts. Apologies in advance for the giant post. A lot has happened. Some stream of consciousness thoughts as I catch up:

Vayne entering the thread with thread analysis on D1 was as surprising for me as it appears it was for WoS XD I don't see the scumminess from Lazer's 6th post (Is it this one? "Marv, which game were you fake claiming miller?"), so could you explain it Vayne?

Oats's vote on rayn was interesting, because I didn't think of rayn's actions from that persepective. The thing is, though, rayn had thought the situation through. The way oats presents it is as though rayn simply saw marv claim miller, and accepted it as true. Then went on to buddy him. This is clearly not what happened.

s0Lstice's first post was interesting (I'm gonna end up saying "interesting" a lot. Too tired at the moment to not be repetitive). First of all, I don't see how that progression indicates Stutters as scum. I found him most suspicious for the aggression so early, not that his reasoning was flawed regarding scum and millers. It's also pretty weird that s0L says Lazer is suspicious for spending so much time thinking about the miller claim when he just gave a town read to rayn, who has apparently spent just as much time doing so. s0L did mention Vivax, who I failed to comment on earlier. The passive shit flinging is something I'd missed, but it seems legit. Why even mention marv being less active so far when he mentioned little more than an hour before that he was going to be pretty inactive for a while? The self-conscious bit I pretty much ignored, since I'm that way every time I post, but I'm keeping the first point in mind.

Vivax's first post after returning actually had a really good point in it. Not that what marv did was scummy, but that the miller claim definitely can't be taken as a town tell now. Rayn followed that post with this: "No it's not. Fakeclaiming miller 5min into the game is dumb and unnecessary as scum and if someone was dumb enough to fakeclaim after marv we had a 50% chance to right out catch them by having them post the role PM first." I'm starting to see what oats was getting at, now. Rayn seems incapable of believing marv is scum, even though it's been shown that the claim is unreliable. Like, in that quote, while admitting the possibility of a fakeclaim, he refuses to believe it could be marv lying.

Lazermonkey: My experience with Vayne is that I can't read him for shit. Well, I mean, I guess I kind of could early on in Roulette, when I found he had "scum potential, but was not necessarily scummy". I'd definitely trust WoS's analysis of Vayne's scum play, especially if Vayne doesn't contest it himself (unless they're both scum... so take that with a grain of salt).

Vivax: "I'm really curious to see which name marv will claim." Why will that actually matter at this point?

Caught up~~

Man, you guys post a lot.

So, current thoughts. Oats is acting almost exactly like he was as town in Roulette. The difference is his approach to pushing his lynch, which seems more persuasive, as opposed to commanding. I think he mentioned at the end of Roulette that he was going to work on that, and his play this game is consistent with that. He's probably my strongest townread at the moment.

Vayne hasn't actually said all that much. I appreciated his first post, then he kind of disappeared. Not much to say. Would still like to know what's so scummy about that Lazer post.

Stutters: Not entirely sure what to think. His explanation for the aggression is pretty much a null tell. He does seem to be posting more than I remember, but the content is mostly defending himself. He also says we should discuss other players, but doesn't suggest any himself. Still very "vayne from roulette"-y for me.

Vivax: I like what he's said about rayn, wasn't impressed by marv's supposed scumminess for not posting his full role PM. That assumes that town marv would have naturally posted his role PM when claiming miller, something that I don't think is a natural inclination. The fact that he went into Carnival Cruise and found evidence of rayn's previous reactions to miller claims gives him some townie points. Overall, slight town, though he's apparently thinking about marv a lot, which I find strange given that marv hasn't really been here at all.

marv: Come back to us, dear. ^^

rayn: After Vivax's marv post, I expected rayn to be less insistent on him being confirmed town. It would have been *much* easier for scum to fakeclaim miller in this situation than I thought, and I don't see how this isn't obvious from a town perspective. Add to that Vivax's case, where he points out that rayn accepts the existence of a miller at face value, and I'm pretty convinced. He's far too eager to accept the claim as truth, when it should now have little effect on the mind of a townie. My only reluctance to vote for him is his activity level, which I tend to associate with town.

##Vote: raynpelikoneet

Everyone else is gonna need a filter dive, and I'm going to have to reread the posts I read while writing this, but I feel comfortable with my The first half is just his observations vote where it is.