EPTWheel of Fortune Mini Mafia - Page 27
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MrZentor
United States1648 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I seem to like tying myself to Zentor  . Fortunately I am confident he will flip town(and I'm also confident you guys are going to lynch him unless I do something about it). Fortunately(again) I will be around all night.On April 26 2012 01:11 Forumite wrote: Radfield, I don´t think you answered this question; Why are you so sure there MUST be at most one 1-shot DT? Do we have any guarantees at all that this game uses the C9++ setup exactly? On April 25 2012 21:37 Ace wrote: Did wbg post anywhere about how he derived this setup? If not 2 one-shot Cops are not out of play. Bugs confirmed that this was a C9++, but ' balanced for TL standards'. I take that to mean that the roles themselves, and how often they appear have been tweaked slightly. Indeed, we can see that a Miller exists, a Jailkeeper exists, and an Innocent Child does not exist. These are all changes, and all changes that move the C9++ in line with 'TL Standards' imo. I also expect that he altered how often masons appear. However, I think it extremely unlikely that he altered something random like the breakdown of one-shot cops and full cops. That's such minutiae that if he was changing those things, it's really no longer a C9++. Maybe I'm overstepping, but I'm confident that I have a handle on the way in which bugs tweaked the setup. Confident enough to stake my life on it apparently .I think one of phagga or VE should be our lynch today, maybe snarfs. Those three are certainly at the top of my charts right now, though I still have yet to check marv. I'm going to spend some time and break the three of them down this evening, and see which one jumps out at me. A case is forthcoming. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On April 26 2012 07:00 Radfield wrote: Bugs confirmed that this was a C9++, but ' balanced for TL standards'. I take that to mean that the roles themselves, and how often they appear have been tweaked slightly. Indeed, we can see that a Miller exists, a Jailkeeper exists, and an Innocent Child does not exist. These are all changes, and all changes that move the C9++ in line with 'TL Standards' imo. I also expect that he altered how often masons appear. However, I think it extremely unlikely that he altered something random like the breakdown of one-shot cops and full cops. That's such minutiae that if he was changing those things, it's really no longer a C9++. Okay, sorry but this spawned a few more questions. -Where did WBG say this was based on C9++? He hasn´t mentioned it in this thread. -I agree that there can´t be an Innocent Child in the game, because it would have been revealed allready, but how can you be sure there is a Miller and a Jailkeeper in the game? | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On April 21 2012 06:53 Radfield wrote: /in this is a C9++? I have never been modkilled and don't intend on starting here. The only thing I ever read from the OPs are whether there are PMs or not On April 21 2012 06:53 wherebugsgo wrote: I did but you still can't read edit: yes Radfield, basically, but balanced for TL standards. again, I stress: anyone who has not read the OP and has /inned demonstrating that they have not read it all will not be counted Radfield, you should probably tell me why you think I'm scum bro. I'm a terrible lynch. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 26 2012 07:45 VisceraEyes wrote: Radfield, you should probably tell me why you think I'm scum bro. I'm a terrible lynch. I'm reading you over right now. I'll let you know if you're a lynchsicle when I finish. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
As such, I'm going to be detailing how certain posts show a mafia oriented mindset. I'd also like to illustrate that I don't think VE really ever gave a crap about who we voted(or who he voted) for Day 1, despite the fact that he spent a lot of time talking about the lynch. On April 22 2012 14:46 VisceraEyes wrote: I think everyone who has posted so far is town. + Show Spoiler + Yes, this is me soft-claiming town. I look forward to hearing from Ace - after his untimely demise in SSM I didn't expect him to be back in a game so quickly. ^^ This really is a bizarre first post. We're a few hours into the game, and VE is declaring that he thinks 5 players(everyone who has posted) are town. Why as a townie would you EVER say that? Why would you ever THINK that? It takes me the better part of Day 1 to begin to pick up town reads, and certainly more than a few posts. Fact is, I agree with VE, that I think all five of those players(prplhz, forumite, zentor, Radfield, SamuelL) ARE town. I think VE came into the thread and saw that, and fired it out. On April 24 2012 06:20 VisceraEyes wrote: Rad made me rethink voting marv - I went back and reread the beginning of his newbie game that I read and he did find himself the victim of early suspicion. This is a completely twisted way to look at meta. The fact that he was found suspicious on day 1 in another game is completely irrelevant to this game. The key is why he looked suspicious, how he was playing, and how it compares to this game. If no one found him suspicious in Newbie VI, that wouldn't matter, because the key is how his play in that game(and alignment) compare to this game. I don't think a town player(at least not one who has played as much as VE) would look at a past game and say, " oh, people found him suspicious in that game, and I find him suspicious in this game, therefore I will reconsider my suspicions". It makes no sense. He actually mentions this again later on, and again uses the same reasoning:+ Show Spoiler + Marv: Marv hasn't given me much to go on today - I'm waiting to see what kind of stuff he puts out today. As I said earlier, meta-wise (Ltd.) it's not unusual for marv to be in hot water D1, so I'm eager to see what he's got. If he fails to produce, I'd like to destroy him. Again, the key is WHY he got in hot water, and how it compares to his play this game. Yet VE is not looking for that. On April 25 2012 08:24 VisceraEyes wrote: Unless Rad and Ace are both scum (imba?) I have to believe that Rad is telling the truth about his claim. However, unlike Radfield I'm not so willing to dismiss the idea that Ace is GF based on "Radfield's luck". However, facts is facts, and I don't see Radfield fake-claiming DT just to clear someone. Therefor, I'm willing to believe Radfield's claim and I'm also willing to reserve judgement on Ace until I see more of his play. Again, we have a failure here from VE. "Unless Rad and Ace are both scum (imba?) I have to believe that Rad is telling the truth about his claim". He is completely ignoring the other scenarios where I could be scum, other than just me and Ace being teammates. Yet VE states that unless they're both scum, Radfield must be town. Lets go through the other options, both of which have been pointed out by other players: I am scum and trying to buy townie cred. I KNOW ace is town aligned, therefore I can get him off my back at a time when he is pressuring me. It was also pointed out that depending on mafia roles, they can surmise the likelihood of a counter-claim. I am SK and trying to buy townie cred. I KNOW ace will go along with me. Either he is scum and now knows I am SK, or he is town and will likely believe my claim. It's a pure gamble though, and a less likely scenario. Me and Ace both being teammates is actually quite unlikely. We would make a very formidable scum-team, and exposing ourselves with such a ballsy claim would be irrational and irresponsible. VE immediately accepts my alignment as town, and in fact only questions whether I would fake claim as a townie. Town players should be questioning whether I am scum or not, NOT questioning whether I am actually vanilla town faking a cop check. Only mafia would question that, because they already KNOW I am town. On April 25 2012 08:31 VisceraEyes wrote: How do you feel about MrZentor? I feel like a lot of people were throwing around "town" a lot in conjunction with MrZentor, so the fact that he didn't die overnight is kinda surprising to me. Taken with his mystifying self-vote immediately into D2, what do you think about him now? Straight up bizarre. No town player should have been remotely suspecting Zentor to get night-killed. There was no way mafia would ever kill him, he was way too massive of a distraction. If you are a townie, ask yourself this: Did you remotely expect Zentor to get killed night 1? This shows a massive disconnect in VE's thought process from what a typical town view should have been. Based on the fact that my scumreads are weak as hell after rereading (those who know me will notice a distinct lack of red text), I think scum are putting in way less effort than most everyone who's posting. One more small contradiction. These two sentences do not make sense together. He claims first that he has no scumreads, yet then immediately claims that scum are putting less effort, which in theory would give you some really easy scumreads. If all the scum are just doggin it, then they should stick out like sore thumbs compared to "most everyone who's posting." AND NOW A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS! I'd like to take this commercial break to have you look at this quote, really look at it. Forumite: If you had asked me yesterday, I'd have said that between the two, Forumite/Zentor, Forumite looked worse. However, since Zentor has started looking worse, Forumite has proportionally started looking better based on how early he was on Zentor's shit yesterday. I'm going to have to go back through and reread their interactions once I hear what Zentor has been up to and make a judgement based on that. Right now, I'd say he's looking okay. So first Forumite looked worse. However somehow Zentor and Forumite are on a see-saw, and forumite looks better the worse Zentor looks. This is ridiculous, and completely at odds with proper scum hunting, which VE knows full well. Additionally, here is VE's read from Day 1 on Forumite: On April 24 2012 02:06 VisceraEyes wrote: I think Forumite is town - but I think his MrZentor wagon is weak as shit, because I think Zentor is town too. :S Forumite is town, and in no way does VE insinuate that he finds Forumite scummy. Yet somehow on Day 2 Forumite has crawled his way up to only "looking okay", when VE clearly stated he saw Forumite as Town on Day 1. Conundrum and Contradiction. AND WE"RE BACK! I want to detail how I don't think VE really cared about our Day 1 lynch, but I'm having trouble setting it down in text, as I think it's kind of subtle. I'm not going to use quotes, so I highly recommend you go back and read the relevant section in VE's filter(or better yet, the full game text). Short form is this: VE never actually does any scum-hunting on Day 1, nor does he ever actually try to push a lynch. He bounces around, pushes a candidate here, throws some names out there, but never really commits. He begins by pushing an ace lynch, yet immediately after(as in next sentence) starts discussing lynching lurkers, particularly sbrubbles. His vote on Ace is so supremely weak that it doesn't merit a vote by a long shot. He then switches onto sbrubbles for no reason than the fact that he has few posts. Yet sbrubbles few posts were jam packed with content, and showed obvious thought and care for the game. VE keeps bouncing though, and it seems obvious to me that he was searching for an appropriate bandwagon. He makes plenty of weak suggestions - ace, myself, sbrubbles, marv - but refuses to run with any of them, and is constantly seeking approval of the other players. I will also add that both VE's conciliatory tone, and lower than normal activity level raise my suspicions, but those are not by themselves scummy things. I think there is a body of evidence though that shows VE is not playing his usual town game, and is consistently displaying mafia thought patterns. ##Vote: Visceraeyes | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
 I'm afraid you're mistaken, but I'll respect you as a player and respond to your post properly. Just give me a few minutes in front of a computer WITHOUT job-packs closing in on me and we'll chat. (in ~ 5-6 hours) <3 | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
First, after reading Radfield's case, TOO HELL WITH VE IS TOWN, he has done more scummy things as pointed out by radfield and refuses to scum hunt. Also, possibly scum killed Toad/Sandro hydra also because toad suspected VE. So, as a guess before my time is going to run out: Scum team is Forumite, phagga, and VisceraEyes. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On April 26 2012 09:24 Radfield wrote: Straight up bizarre. No town player should have been remotely suspecting Zentor to get night-killed. There was no way mafia would ever kill him, he was way too massive of a distraction. If you are a townie, ask yourself this: Did you remotely expect Zentor to get killed night 1? I disagree with your analsis in this case. A scummy player who narrowly avoid a lynch sounds like a prime target for a vigi-shot. We are at the same place we were yesterday before the lynch, a nightkill on MrZentor would have given us back this day. Radfield, what about the MrZentor lynch? | ||
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MrZentor
United States1648 Posts
VE better have an excellent response. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I'll admit that the voting section is slightly weaker than I like, but it is only part of a body of evidence. I think there are numerous tells in your posting that show a mafia mindset. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 26 2012 09:44 Forumite wrote: I disagree with your analsis in this case. A scummy player who narrowly avoid a lynch sounds like a prime target for a vigi-shot. We are at the same place we were yesterday before the lynch, a nightkill on MrZentor would have given us back this day. Radfield, what about the MrZentor lynch? I agree with that. Zentor getting vigged would be likely, but that is NOT what VE is referring to. He is specifically postulating that it's strange Zentor was not killed by mafia, even if he doesn't explicitly say it. I bet VE will even confirm that. On April 26 2012 09:43 Bluelightz wrote: Scum team is Forumite, phagga, and VisceraEyes. Bluelightz, If you are town than your play has improved over last game, but I highly recommend you stop trying to find the entire scum team in one swoop. Focus on one player at a time, and peg them. Once we find one scum, we will start looking for the next one. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On April 26 2012 09:47 Radfield wrote: Don't cut down my case by calling it a gut read. I'll admit that the voting section is slightly weaker than I like, but it is only part of a body of evidence. I think there are numerous tells in your posting that show a mafia mindset. I'm just playin Rad, it's a great case - its weakness is that it's based on my inactivity and your perception of my mindset while posting. I fully intend to actually respond to it in full sir, I was just joking. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I was thinking today about how Ace said to keep it simple. But I think that the simple answer is not: "player is blatantly disruptive, therefore he is scum". Fact is 98% of the time scum just try to blend in with town. So the actual simple answer is "player is blatantly disruptive, he's probably an uncaring townie". That's obvious a simplification, but you get the jist. Anyways if he flipped scum I'd be surprised but not shocked. I think VE is a better target by a long shot. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On April 26 2012 09:51 Radfield wrote: I agree with that. Zentor getting vigged would be likely, but that is NOT what VE is referring to. He is specifically postulating that it's strange Zentor was not killed by mafia, even if he doesn't explicitly say it. I bet VE will even confirm that. Why couldn´t he be talking about MrZentor getting shot by a vigilante? That statement doesn´t make sense unless he was talking about a vigishot. Like you said, there´s no way mafia would kill him, but a vigi might. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
I don't think that your case on VisceraEyes is all too strong. You are saying multiple times "Come on VisceraEyes, you know that this is scummy" and "Come on VisceraEyes, you know that this is no way to scum hunt", but that really just shows that "sticking your neck out" and "shooting from the hip" that you're finding elsewhere (where it isn't). I don't in any way think that VisceraEyes is town, but I see no reason to lynch VisceraEyes today. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 26 2012 09:52 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm just playin Rad, it's a great case - its weakness is that it's based on my inactivity and your perception of my mindset while posting. I fully intend to actually respond to it in full sir, I was just joking. I know I'm just being Mr Serious <3 | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 26 2012 10:03 Forumite wrote: Why couldn´t he be talking about MrZentor getting shot by a vigilante? That statement doesn´t make sense unless he was talking about a vigishot. Like you said, there´s no way mafia would kill him, but a vigi might. He specifically says that a lot of people thought Zentor was town. Why would you expect someone who lots of people think is town to get vigged? You wouldn't, you'd expect them to get shot by mafia. Lots of people think is scum -> Expect Vig hit Lots of people think is town -> Expect Mafia hit Yes? prplhz, I'll respond to you in the morning. | ||
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