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Day 3![[image loading]](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_NPHnM0XcLg0/TUg2_ZOwEqI/AAAAAAAAAeg/jo8LZK4Ypx4/s400/arm.jpg)
Nobody is innocent, there are merely varying levels of guilt.
In the darkness of the void, each man huddles in his cabin, powerless to stop death. It is not a question of if, but rather, who, will die tonight. In his cabin, mderg cradles his lascarabine, the only sure friend in these dark times. As the door to his room opens silently, he stands and takes careful aim. In these times, any nightguest who comes without knocking is unwelcome. With well practiced breathing, mderg takes aim at the coalescing shadows, and squeezes the trigger. A hail of las-shots piece the darkness, illuminating a contorted, demonic figure, something inhuman and unsightly. Mderg cannot hold back a scream as he fires, again and again. The thing doesn't seem to notice the lasfire, it simply stands there, and when mderg's lasgun runs dry, it takes a step forward.
In the morning, the only thing found in mderg's room was a puddle of blood and the scorch-marks of lasgun fire.
What is the terror of death?
That we die our work incomplete!
What is the joy of life?
To die knowing our task is done!
Mderg, an Imperial Guardsman, has died.
It is now day 3! You have 48 hours to determine who to lynch!
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Aw, just when he was getting good...
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Calling it right now, BaronFel and Sentinel scumteam.
BaronFel was lurking a lot during the Timeasis/Sentinel/Blueilghtz stuff D1, which would make sense if he were scum.
Posts like this:
On February 07 2012 23:02 BaronFel wrote:
After looking through Nisani201's filter, I think he's rather suspicious (short posts, didn't explain his decisions much). He's probably my main suspect at this point.
Mderg seems like a townie to me, or at least rather logical.
EchelonTee is rather aggressive, but I don't think that makes him more suspicious than Nisani201 at this point.
gotta go to work, but I'll be back later tonight
Also make me think he's scum. He tries to be as impartial as possible with everything.
I've explained my reasoning behind Sentinel in the past but I'll explain it again. He's been jumping on easy lynch opportunities based on mistakes that scum wouldn't make.
I have equal reads on both of them. If you guys would rather lynch BaronFel then fine, but I think that Sentinel would be a better lynch since he is actively misleading the town.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
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Cool enough.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
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On February 08 2012 11:32 TheToast wrote:Which of course brings me to ET. I already wrote up my thoughts on ET's posts for day 1 here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=306452¤tpage=16#319 (sorry for the messed up quotes) My conclusion at the time was that he was just terrible at analysis. But seeing that he did it again Day 2 I am getting a bit worried. Not much to go on for ET's posts Day2, the only one of real substance is where he accused Sinesis: Show nested quote +On February 07 2012 08:48 EchelonTee wrote:sigh sinensis... On February 07 2012 08:13 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On February 07 2012 07:31 Sinensis wrote:On February 07 2012 07:27 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:prplhz just said "lynch timeaisis" It wasn't until 50 minutes later that sinani brought out this gem: On February 04 2012 04:54 sinani206 wrote:
OK, so we have 2 lynch candidates: timeaisis and sentinel.
Everyone not on these should switch to them now to make sure we have no stragglers at lynch time. (Bluelightz/Vilonis/TheToast)
The fact that they are voting for each other already makes me pretty sure that one of them is mafia.
Timeaisis is looking more newb-town with the quick votes on him, so I will be voting for sentinel who has gone quiet since he took the lead in votes.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
omg Sentinel do I seriously have to do everything for you or do you just enjoy making me work? On February 04 2012 06:00 prplhz wrote:@EchelonTee [UoN]Sentinel only has Hammer Mini Mafia on this forum yet and since we both participated in that game and he's still alive I'm not going to talk about it.
@Sinensis Yea, I joke-voted in the beginning of the game but does this make me more scummy or more townie? It doesn't mean anything, and it doesn't really matter what you think about me anyway, the Timeasis lynch isn't good or bad depending on my alignment but on the arguments presented in this thread. As for my vote on you, you were the most scummy at that point. Yes you were, you promoted chaos and silly stuff and I wanted the game going so I voted you. I wasn't very confident that you were scum so I didn't push you hard but I wanted people to start talking about the lynch and I actually think I successfully shifted the discussion away from silly policies and plans and unto who we should lynch which is what day1 should be about especially in a game like this where there can be no plans and where policies should be self evident. I haven't had the time I usually have for this game because I was in another game (Hammer Mini Mafia). I am dead in that game now and you can expect more from me now (as you can already see). I did indirectly respond to your FOS when I wrote the post saying that my early posts were just to get the game started. I understand that it must have been traumatic of you to have had 4 votes on you but you need to get over it. What do you mean with that last thing, that there are three people you are suspicious of and they're defending each other? Names and examples please because I don't think I understand.
@TheToast You don't feel like responding to my complaint that you're using the same arguments for me being scum as for Timeasis being town?
Since we are lynching either Timeasis or [UoN]Sentinel tonight people need to start voting for one of these. 04:54 vs. 06:00. Sinani still came first -__- You're so stubborn that you don't realize you're wrong when the time stamps are clearly visible. Why are you STILL trying to discredit prplhz?? I don't give a shit if he's a vet or not. he SHOT sinani. despite all you people reading him as town. wtf have you done all game, besides insult people. Oh, is this supposed to be your master stroke? On February 07 2012 07:02 Sinensis wrote:prplhz I voted for you in my violent outburst of a post to see if anyone would try to go after me. You are confirmed town so long as no one tries to say they're a vigi too, why not see if I can go fishing for scum and have one try to start a movement against me? Afterward I can act dumb and the person who convinced me I get to add to my, "probably town" list. 1We're you the one earlier who said that in your 50+ years of playing or however long you've never seen a scum slip? That they don't exist and people who try to find them are just making the waters murkier? I was also super pissed because you essentially killed our first townie with your "Sentinel or Timeaisis" ultimatum that everyone followed, especially when I was in a position to, as a townie, confirm his innocence. This made you look like scum to me, and TheToast if I remember correctly. 2On February 04 2012 11:55 Sinensis wrote:
If I'm a townie (And TheToast is a townie, which I think he is) then with the information we have I'm in a unique position to be able verify Timeaisis's innocence based on voting patterns.
I don't know what you think you're talking about. Maybe you can start a bandwagon lynch on me later just like you did with Timeaisis? I don't get it. 1. The problem with gambits such as this, is that by doing a SUPER SCUMMY move, you make TOWN people suspicious of you. It never occurred to you that a townie might start the movement on you? This paragraph here is just so wtf. Are you saying that mderg is added to your "probably town list", just because he told you prplhz can't be mafia because of no CC?? I stated that before mderg. PRPLHZ stated that before mderg. It took a one liner from mderg to convince you? This just reeks of "try to make prplhz look bad at any cost". 2.I noticed this the first time you said it; didn't make sense then, doesn't make sense now. How can you CONFIRM anyone's innocence? It's D1, no flips, no night actions, nothing. You can't possibly use voting analysis at that state of the game. Look at sinani; you sure were convinced he was town because he voted for Blue, remember? I said I would be back before deadline. Placeholder vote is placeholder vote. Since you're so anxious, ##Vote: Sinensis I don't have a problem with the first part. Sinesis majorly muddied the waters day 1, I also called out Sinesis for this so I can't hold this against ET. The second half of this argument makes no sense to me. Essentially ET is saying that Sinesis is scum for going after prphlz. I should point out that I did as well, and said I was not going to move my vote until I was sure there was not going to be a counter claim. Sinesis followed me in this. We both moved our votes when it became clear that no one was going to counter claim. How does that make him scum and me not? 1.I'm not sure I understand point 2 at all. ET thought he was scum because he was unhappy that ET's bad analysis lead to Time getting lynched? I don't understand this at all. Either way this is pretty much the bulk of ET's posting from Day2, not much to go on so I really can't get a good read. Still on my list of suspicions though. 2.Not sure what is going on with BaronFel, I can't make head or tails of his (lack of) posting. I guess we will have to see who gets the axe Night 2 and try to analyze it. I'm still wondering why Violinis was the mafia hit day 1, looking at the two together may give us some insight into who is on the right track. Hopefully I'm still here by then :S 3
1. My argument was essentially the converse of why people thought Sinensis was innocent; he was acting really scummy, talking nonsense, and discrediting people without doing anything. Some people said that he was being too scummy to be scum. I prefer lynching people who are scummy, rather than let them gallivant about and ruin town atmosphere. You can condemn my reads if you want, but if you honestly think that Sinensis was not acting scummy, there's no hope for you. You're also implying that I don't find you suspicious, though I do. I didn't think that any townie could rationally think that prplhz could be scum after that, and you and Sinensis being still on him was glaring. If you want me to spell it out for you, I think that mafia was trying to discredit prplhz because they won't be able to mislynch him, or reliably shoot him at night.
2. What you're implying here (and what mderg said explicitly R.I.P.) is that I haven't been posting much, or that I've been posting a lot of fluff. I've been one of the most active people in this game; though it's easy to hone into my hand-full of analysis posts and pick them apart, since they were wrong, if you wanted to analyze me, you'd better do a full job of it and look at my reactions to people, my questions, etc. I'm not going to let you mislynch me on the platform of "he was wrong so he's scum". Having a list of suspicions is fine and dandy; take a firm stance on me instead of just waffling around the topic.
3. I really don't get why you keep on posting this fear of the red bullet. Your D1/N1 activity was good for Mafia in that you wanted prplhz dead, who was getting suspicious of sinani, a red. Your D2 activity, you didn't take responsibility for anything, though you brought up a meta argument on Bluelightz that was the opposite of what you made it out to be. I don't know why I so easily assumed that you were townie; you posting these little tags sure as hell makes people think you're town. To be clear and explicit: by stating that you are afraid of being shot and that you hope you are still around, you're overemphasizing your "pro-towniness", which I think is an illusion; you post a lot, doesn't make you townie.
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On February 08 2012 13:04 prplhz wrote:
Cool enough.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
you agree with the dude you were going to push? buhh?
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Who do we lynch today EchelonTee? I'm totally clueless.
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I need to think more slowly and rationally. Going to filter/meta the following:
TheToast
Nisani
Sentinel
Toast or anyone else, if you end up analyzing the dead people/vote patterns, that would be helpful.
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BaronFel is looking good, but for once I agree 100% with ET. We need to be very careful and rational about this. We have 48 hours, lets figure this out.
I'm going to sit down tomorrow and go through some of these with a fine tooth comb. Let's **NOT** just jump on the Sentinel bandwagon with Nisani. At least until we have some good evidence and analysis on Sentinel and Nisani has actually been cleared.
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When you say BaronFel is look good, do you mean looking good as a townie or good as a lynch candidate?
Also, "fine tooth comb" what does that mean? Genuinely curious, not trying analyze or w.e
Sleeping, will post thoughts tomorrow
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Hey guys back anyway to the list:
As for previous reasons,
EchelonTee
Nisani201
Others
BaronFel - From town to Null in one post, sigh...
On February 07 2012 23:02 BaronFel wrote:
After looking through Nisani201's filter, I think he's rather suspicious (short posts, didn't explain his decisions much). He's probably my main suspect at this point.
Mderg seems like a townie to me, or at least rather logical.
EchelonTee is rather aggressive, but I don't think that makes him more suspicious than Nisani201 at this point.
gotta go to work, but I'll be back later tonight
Hmm, first point on Nisani prp had already pointed it out already.
The point I bolded, " okay BaronFel I'll wait for you tonight for more juicy stuff!"
Okay, he comes back nad then....... in the time he has DING DING DING DING
1 POST!
"But bluelightz, this post can have lots of juicy content like TheToast's post's or others"
On February 08 2012 10:19 BaronFel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 08 2012 06:53 EchelonTee wrote:
Though your posts are slightly longer than Nisani's, how are you any better than him? I feel like Nisani hasn't always explained himself and his actions clearly. I try to explain my reasoning and if it happens to agree with someone else, I try not to repeat and add in fluff. I think sometimes Toast can be aggressive in his pursuit, but still isn't my main suspect.
Uhh.....
So, when BaronFel s back he only posted this one post.
Let's see what he did,
1.Questioning if people's post's are better then Nisani's post's..... Your filter looks like equal with Nisani's, except with much more lurking and just sheeping.You, have contributed very little to town.
2.BaronFel, why dont you just agree with the "someone" you end up agreeing with?It's better then repeating what one person has already said.
3.CAN BE?????? Anyway, you think TheToast is suspicious why?
okay next!
prplhz - confirmed town
TheToast - the way TheToast post's is very townie, he has been contributing lot's to town so yeah town.
Okay, so lastly Sentinel!
[UoN]Sentinel - He didnt contribute much, some of his votes have little explanation sometimes, but the way he acts is a little townie, could be scum tho
The End!, If you have any questions or want me to explain more, Feel free to do it!
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On February 08 2012 02:20 Nisani201 wrote:
Because I trust confirmed townies more than nonconfirmed townies. I also know that prplhz is a good scumhunter.
This is the "reasoning" that Nisani has. This is all of it.
His posts are generally one-liners, mostly to do with lynching me. If I didn't know better, I'd say he was an executioner.
Executioner does not exist, however. I'm guessing the last two scum are Fatespinner and Goon, but no way to be certain. Now for my usual line-by-line defense.
I've explained my reasoning behind Sentinel in the past but I'll explain it again. He's been jumping on easy lynch opportunities based on mistakes that scum wouldn't make.
I have equal reads on both of them. If you guys would rather lynch BaronFel then fine, but I think that Sentinel would be a better lynch since he is actively misleading the town.
Did you say actively misleading? Timeaisis (peace be upon him) and Sinensis might have been townies, but they had extremely scummy gameplay and it was only logical to assume they were scums. Many people had mountains of evidence piling against at least one of them, unlike your one liners which really, really, really, want to get me guillotined.
On February 08 2012 13:04 prplhz wrote:
Cool enough.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
Oh god... bandwagon voting again? But that brings up a good point. BaronFel has 10 posts. TEN of them. That's 1 /in post and 9 short posts where I learned nothing new because someone already said most of those things. Here's a little something something from BaronFel
I think we should vote, but I'm not fully sold on Sentinal being scum just yet... and prplhz has been making stronger arguments since his rough start...
##Vote: Timeaisis
For now (He has been acting odd, and I think playing up the "Im new" card a bit too much), although I'm still watching prplhz (for having such a surprising turn around of character) and Sinensis (for some questionable logic, which even as a townie, is dangerous).
Can't find any other justification in his filter for lynching Timeaisis (peace be upon him) other than those 2 sentences. He was riding Sinensis up until the Timeaisis train got rolling, and then suddenly it's "whoops I think I'll vote for him instead!"
Then he switches to Sinensis after THAT train gets rolling, getting two townies out of the way.
Of course he might be busy. But generally he's been posting only when someone says "BaronFel is lurking, I'm thinking of voting him because he's suspicious" he half-asses an argument to get us off of his back, life goes on. As much as I'd love to see Nisani lynched, the fact of the matter is that a mislynch today will bring us to a LyLo scenario tomorrow. It will be 3 on 2.
Resulting in ##Vote: BaronFel
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@Bluelightz why is everyone in the town green or null to you? It's obvious that your three null tells are the people you are suspicious of, but you don't seem keen on accusing them in any way. If you had to pick one person, who would you push?
@Sentinel I thought your post was leading into a case on Nisani, but you sort of shifted the focus onto BF. I don't really follow your case; you say Nisani is lurking / not providing reasons, but pass over him in favor of BF, who you attribute the same reasons toward. You do state that "As much as I'd love to see Nisani lynched, the fact of the matter is that a mislynch today will bring us to a LyLo scenario tomorrow.", but how does this make BF more suspicious? Basically I'm just wondering how you are distinguishing BF and Nisani, as atm you're applying the same characteristics to both.
Still in classes, will put up meatier posts tonight.
Also, lol at the phrase "TheToast's posts" haha
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I agree. We can't afford to mislynch today.
If we all think that it would be safer to kill BaronFel, I'll switch my vote to him.
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On February 09 2012 03:08 EchelonTee wrote:
Also, lol at the phrase "TheToast's posts" haha
TheToast is the host with the most boast to post from coast to coast.
Also, due to some personal stuff (job interview!) and some other stuff I'm working on I'm probably not going to have time to post my full analysis until tomorrow afternoon (US time). So I'm not lurking, just busy 
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On February 09 2012 03:08 EchelonTee wrote:
@Bluelightz why is everyone in the town green or null to you? It's obvious that your three null tells are the people you are suspicious of, but you don't seem keen on accusing them in any way. If you had to pick one person, who would you push?
@Sentinel I thought your post was leading into a case on Nisani, but you sort of shifted the focus onto BF. I don't really follow your case; you say Nisani is lurking / not providing reasons, but pass over him in favor of BF, who you attribute the same reasons toward. You do state that "As much as I'd love to see Nisani lynched, the fact of the matter is that a mislynch today will bring us to a LyLo scenario tomorrow.", but how does this make BF more suspicious? Basically I'm just wondering how you are distinguishing BF and Nisani, as atm you're applying the same characteristics to both.
Still in classes, will put up meatier posts tonight.
Also, lol at the phrase "TheToast's posts" haha
I was going to lynch Nisani, and was going to say why he's a better lynch than BaronFel, but after a read through the latter's filter, I felt like I had more to argue for Baron and bought my own argument. I didn't delete Nisani's bit for stenographical reasons.
Also, a lot of my voting has been reactionary. Timeaisis is voting for me and not good enough reason, I automatically assume he's scum and trying to bandwagon on a mislynch. I think I don't have enough to argue Nisani other than "he wants me dead" and "he REALLY wants me dead", unlike Baron who I have an impartial argument against.
Maybe Nisani really IS scum, but he's got less chance of being one.
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Can people please vote for the person they currently think should be lynched. If town just sits around instead of committing then we can't force scum to commit either.
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Fun-fact: Student Mafia had 27 pages at the end of day1. This game has 27 pages at the end of day3.
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Okay Student Mafia has Blazinghand, but still.
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@EchelonTee Why do you care whether I push Nisani201 or not today? I asked you who you want to lynch and you don't even answer "Nisani201" because then I would be able to follow you, but instead you answer that you don't really know. At the beginning of day3 you of all people in this game don't know who to lynch. What the hell is that about?
@BaronFel What is this?
On February 05 2012 14:52 BaronFel wrote:
[...]
If you want my opinion, I was looking at prplhz after the time vote, but he was pretty logical and caught on to sinani so I have no real reason not to believe he isn't the vig.
[...]
That makes no sense at all. You believe I'm the vig because I shot sinani201? That's some backwards logic right there. I have no idea what to make of that.
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EPT
