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Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
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Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
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@Willz,
I actually kind of agree with you Willz- However. Like I said in my post, if he flips green, that tells us A LOT actually. If you look at the Day 1 vote, he misses being lynched by ONE vote. That means, it is highly likely that mafia are within that voting group! (or the lurkers that didn't vote). So we've pretty much narrowed our focus significantly, and odds are that the people who didn't vote for him on Day 1 (besides lurkers) are also town.
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I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
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As now, my top scum reads are OtoshimonU- and Rainmaker5
I'm not going into details regarding Oto's case, since it's pretty much clear to many.
Rainmaker5 is different type of lurker. I wouldn't label as someone as a innocent townie trying to follow the most active or rational players and easily following trends. In fact, he tries so hard to appear to contribute in the only post that he made, and then never really appear again.
On March 03 2012 03:33 Rainmaker5 wrote:Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now. going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information Trapdoor http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13742776This is just a good post that I feel I can stand behind. Against a no-lynch and wants people to talk. Standard behavior for a good town player. Dimmuclock http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011same shit, for a lynch wants people to discuss. Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch. Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that Pablos http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13750765going out of his way to fly off the handle when someone is suspicious, is well suspicious. Also he seems to be supporting random lynch? I'm not really sure Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react. But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention. Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm!
You would say ' well, this looks like a pro-town post and encourages discussion, right?' NO, it isn't:
1) Look how he makes a summary of the recent events. Nothing really worth to contribute.
2) Notice how does he quote certain players while others not.
Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good
Not reasoning at all. Why would players which are constantly lurking seem good to you? Didn't you want to talk? Why would you let continue them lurking?
3) Notice how he didn't really pointed a finger on anyone. He claims that Mav and Mem are town just because if they were scum they would do X thing. Players that make justifications based that 'X guy is town because Y behavior would be backfired to scum' are very likely to flip scum.
Same thing happened with Oto. In this case, he isn't 100% sure that he is mafia. He took the luxury to say that he might be just poor town play. That explanation is much more developed than his final veredict.
This is the next post:
On March 03 2012 17:11 Rainmaker5 wrote:
lol i go take a test and head out for drink and I'm fosed twice the shit.
the trick to playing town is to be honest and not mad, I made a post where I read the entire thread and made opinions while reading it. I'd love to see everyone's opinions on everyone.
basically the point of mafia in my real life experience is to clear all scum. So don't get butthurt when people are suspicious. Especially early on we can't get reads. But as town we need to fucking lynch someone, just to clear out people.
I've said it once and I'll say it again- if town doesn't lynch they lose. If you're town and you want to win post, and try to get reads. Otoshi is still #1 on my list because he refuses to do either except defend himself in a trashy way, but whatever I'll talk more when I'm sober.
CHEERS DUDES.
It's mostly fluff. He realizes that he is FoSed, but instead, he decides to dodge the attacks. Yea, you claim to be drunk. This statement is rather questionable.
On March 03 2012 17:12 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I'll post a detailed analysis of everyone tomorrow btw. I apologize for not talking a big part in the game so far, but lifes a bitch.
He wills to post an analysis. The bad thing is that this never materializes.
Rainmaker5 is a dangerous lurker. I'm voting for him now. If Oto's lynch is pretty much set, I'll change my vote though. We don't want another No-lynch.
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On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote:
I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
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I'll switch to Rainmaker if we have the votes Willz, but I won't have another No-lynch.... I get where everyone is highlighting his lurking and how he is posting very little, yet still 'active'..... The only issue with this vote, is that we haven't had as much time to get people's opinions on this. We've really stuck with Suficiency and Oto as our two main suspects....
I guess this is where I'm stuck... Would Mafia vote for someone else, KNOWING that if they voted for Oto on Day 1.. that he would be lynched? I find it hard to believe that they would pass up a chance for Town to sacrifice their own member for pretty much no risk? (an overwhelming majority of active players) This is my number one reason for voting for Oto.
I'm not concerned about this day's vote, since clearly at this point since there are enough votes, Mafia can just lay low and vote whoever they want to, bandwagon, or not vote for anyone. However I think its important to really look at that first Day's vote....
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d4QZ8ZhKUg
Night Two
OtoshimonoU had a dream he was a Power Ranger, but he wasn't fooling anyone.
OtoshimonoU the Bulk and Skull (Vanilla Townie) has been lynched.
You have 24 hours to submit night actions.
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On March 06 2012 11:17 Sbrubbles wrote:
Well I'll be!
Damned. GL HF!
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So I'll stick to my theory that Sbrubbles and Sufficiency are probably not mafia based on their opportunity to kill Oto on the first night and passing it up.. that leaves:
trackd00r
Rainmaker5
Maverick32x
DimmuKlok
gunman103
As some of our *active* possible culprits...Obviously the lurkers make it difficult... but there's some thoughts!!
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Note that still, we haven't lost any power roles and still have have a detective out there. I think whoever the detective is should claim right now and give us his two reports, so our medic can guarantee he lives to talk on day 3. We'll have 3 reports to work with and a good suspect list, giving us a good chance to win this.
We should discuss right now who needs to be investigated tonight. Tomorrow I'll write down my reads. Right now I'm as tired as shit.
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On March 06 2012 11:41 Maverick32x wrote:
So I'll stick to my theory that Sbrubbles and Sufficiency are probably not mafia based on their opportunity to kill Oto on the first night and passing it up.. that leaves:
trackd00r
Rainmaker5
Maverick32x
DimmuKlok
gunman103
As some of our *active* possible culprits...Obviously the lurkers make it difficult... but there's some thoughts!!
Out of all of the people you listed, Rainmaker is definetly most suspicious and the most likely to be scum. I propose that we lynch rainmaker when day 3 comes around. Even if he is town, which he probably isn't, what are we really going to lose? A useless lurker who hasn't posted anything in almost 3 real life days, who also promised an analysis that never came. I really doubt that trackdoor and maverick are scum. If we lynched either of them, it would be a loss for all of us. It is possible that dimmuklok is scum, but again, it's doubtful compared to rainmaker. As for me, make up your own mind, but I think rainmaker should certainly be the next person to look hard at.
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Well, Oto's death is a pity.. but I guess this happens when you playing Newbie games. ):
gunman, you are pushing pretty fast, it's night atm, every false word during night can lead to death.
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On March 06 2012 12:11 Sbrubbles wrote:
Note that still, we haven't lost any power roles and still have have a detective out there. I think whoever the detective is should claim right now and give us his two reports, so our medic can guarantee he lives to talk on day 3. We'll have 3 reports to work with and a good suspect list, giving us a good chance to win this.
We should discuss right now who needs to be investigated tonight. Tomorrow I'll write down my reads. Right now I'm as tired as shit.
Are you sure that the DT should claim? If there is no medic he will be dead before he can report to us. Isn't it better to discuss now who to investigate so that the DT can claim the next day. This will leave the risk that scum coincidentally kills our DT, but I think it's better than hoping that we have a medic.
On March 06 2012 11:41 Maverick32x wrote:
So I'll stick to my theory that Sbrubbles and Sufficiency are probably not mafia based on their opportunity to kill Oto on the first night and passing it up.. that leaves:
trackd00r
Rainmaker5
Maverick32x
DimmuKlok
gunman103
As some of our *active* possible culprits...Obviously the lurkers make it difficult... but there's some thoughts!!
You left me out here... I don't know if I should be happy or sad.
Imo, guys that would be good investigation objects:
Sufficiency
Pablols
Dimmu
Rainmaker
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+ Show Spoiler +On March 06 2012 18:51 blubbdavid wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 12:11 Sbrubbles wrote:
Note that still, we haven't lost any power roles and still have have a detective out there. I think whoever the detective is should claim right now and give us his two reports, so our medic can guarantee he lives to talk on day 3. We'll have 3 reports to work with and a good suspect list, giving us a good chance to win this.
We should discuss right now who needs to be investigated tonight. Tomorrow I'll write down my reads. Right now I'm as tired as shit. Are you sure that the DT should claim? If there is no medic he will be dead before he can report to us. Isn't it better to discuss now who to investigate so that the DT can claim the next day. This will leave the risk that scum coincidentally kills our DT, but I think it's better than hoping that we have a medic.
Well I would think it would be weird not to have a medic in the game ... idk. Still, one thing I had forgotten is that there might be a mafia roleblocker, so it might really not be worth it for the detective to claim. Bah, idk any more.
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Investigate Rainmaker first and foremost. The others you guys are curious of look like you're trying to find the scum that's trying to stay in the light. If that was the case, I'd be taking a closer look at Willz... Just sayin
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I do see a case for lynching Rain when day 3 comes, given his lurking habit, his lack of good posts even when he was posting and his vote for Otoshi on day 1. BUT, knowing that we can still afford a possible mis-lynch tomorrow, I think the DT should investigate Dimmu instead, and here I'll make my case:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 03 2012 06:50 DimmuKlok wrote:Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information. I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here: Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote:
Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him. My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for.
1) Begins day 1 voting for blubbdavid, the biggest lurker at the time "just to bring him out of hiding" and, once there were 4 votes on Otoshi (thus a good chance of getting rid of him), he switches his vote "to who he originally intended"! In fact, he doesn't explain anywhere why he's voting for Otoshi, except for saying it was who he originally intended on voting for!
+ Show Spoiler +On March 04 2012 09:57 DimmuKlok wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote:
Based on my little list above, I would like to purpose a Plan to the Town.
Since voting is in the next 24 hours, I would like every one to post their top 2 scum reads within the next 12 hours. I want to know why they are your scum reads, quoting someone elses opinion is not acceptable. Must be backed up by some evidence, filter quotes, pyscological reasons why they would say that if they were scum, why their behaviour is scummy etc. Many people have said will post later scum opinions and never have.
On March 04 2012 07:44 DimmuKlok wrote:
My idea on fixing this problem is to force everyone post who they believe to be scum. All it needs to be is one person, and you don't have to put any effort into it if you don't want to. There's nothing against actually trying though.
The reason this idea works is because it's so easy. Mafia can easily participate in any way they feel fit, but they are forced to participate. It also brings back discussion with updated information. Comply or be lynched.
The only way I see this being exploited is if someone makes a simple post on someone and then lurks until it's lynching time. This behavior should be pretty easy to spot and pointed out by one of us, so I'm not too worried. On March 04 2012 08:08 Mementoss wrote:
This post pretty much confirms town on DimmuKlok's part. All his posts have good content in it, and the game was at a current state where lurking was the majority and mafia could sit back and laugh to victory as for almost 6 hours since the lynch nothing significant has been posted. Not that many people have been claiming DimmuKlok as mafia, but I want to go back and check who actually did call DimmuKlok mafia.
So DimmuKlok's proposal would have us naming scumlists, when nothing has happened and no one is going to have solid reads yet especially with all the new replacements, myself included. As shown in my quotes, this proposal is essentially one Mementoss proposed 2 days earlier. Mementoss then proceeds to support DimmuKlok as "confirmed town" with the game still at status quo. Can you elaborate on this? Throwing around confirm posts with no one being lynched or dead seems a little premature. For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere. ##Vote OtoshimonoU My idea and Mementoss's idea are actually very different. His idea was to force everyone into coming up with 2 very detailed cases on 2 different people. There were lots of problems with this plan. One of which he states right after he tells everyone the plan: Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Important READ THIS
This plan will be pointless unless ALL town posts, if even 1 town does not post, the mafia can remain silent. If all town posts this forces mafia to post and might cause a slip, if they don't post suspicion is brought upon them. Right now we have about 6 barely active players, even if they are town they aren't coming up with ideas or opinions. This hurts everyones reads on scum.
People who have already posted their reads, me, trackd00r, and maverick. Feel free to re look at your reads and repost, but this plan is more focused towards the no opinion/little content posting section.
Peace, hopefully this will further prove/enforce some of my reads. All town need to participate and the cases need to be damn good or they will get accused. This meant that the mafia simply didn't have to participate and all it took was one town player to not put in the effort. If you were going to participate you needed to put in a lot of effort, therefor not many people contributed and the idea died. Not surprising considering 4 people didn't even put in the effort to vote, and at least one was town. This idea has none of those problems. You can choose to benefit the town by making a more detailed post on your scum read, but you don't have to. What you do have to do is post. Don't, and we'll simply lynch you. I'm not going to lie, the major problem with this plan is that we can't lynch someone that we have a case on unless we are nearly 100% sure he is mafia. Simply because we need to have consequences for not participating, and that's getting lynched. Even that one problem is minor, though. A townie will not want to be lynched, therefor he will at least post. That will continue to narrow down the list of lurkers until you would have to be stupid not to accuse someone in order to not get lynched. If everyone is smart, everyone will post, and we can get new information out there and everyone participating. In the chance that we have 1-3 lurkers when it comes time to vote, we'll have to pick which we feel is the best to lynch. I don't see that happening though with how easy it is to keep yourself from getting lynched(Post a scum read). When and if there are no lurkers, we can go back to voting for who you want to lynch.
2) Night 1 and Day 2, besides once again not explaining his vote for Otoshi, his posts are either filler, or the discussion he had with Mementoss about lack of participation, which is not exactly what you would call "productive". But hey! At least he hedged his bets! + Show Spoiler +On March 06 2012 04:08 DimmuKlok wrote:
Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads...
+ Show Spoiler +On March 06 2012 22:47 DimmuKlok wrote:
Investigate Rainmaker first and foremost. The others you guys are curious of look like you're trying to find the scum that's trying to stay in the light. If that was the case, I'd be taking a closer look at Willz... Just sayin
3) Besides the potshot at Willz (who I feel is town for not lynching Otto day 1, or at the very least null), he takes to accusing Rain. But Rain is already under heavy suspicion, and is a prime target for tomorrow, so I wouldn't find it strange for at least one of his buddies to bus (sacrifice) him in order to look townish.
4) Also note that there may be a Godfather in the game. If Rain is a Godfather, it would be textbook mafia play to try to get the DT to investigate him.
So, in summary, I think we should investigate Dimmu today, possibly lynch Rain tommorow and look for the 3rd mafia.
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Oh shoot, didn't think about the possibility of a Godfather.
Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious?
And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute."
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On March 07 2012 00:46 blubbdavid wrote:
Oh shoot, didn't think about the possibility of a Godfather.
Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious?
And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute."
I don't see how a DT case on Rain is wasted, or even less effective than a DT case on anyone else. Everyone has the same chance of being mafia, statistically, and Rain is the most likely to come up as Mafia in my opinion. If you investigate anyone and they turn up town, what does that tell you? Nothing, because it could be wrong, and even if it's right then you just have a confirmed town player who will continue to do what they did before that.
My opinion of Willz is after this.
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EPT
