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On January 17 2010 18:46 sashkata wrote:
The odds should have nothing to do with how many people bet how much money on whom. The only thing the odds should represent is the chance of a player/team winning (according to professionals). And that obvsly doesn't change with people betting.
This is so incredibly wrong. Odds always change with people betting so that bets will come in for both sides and the sites can make a guaranteed profit.
(Of course once you put in your bet your own bet won't change)
On January 17 2010 19:08 Glaucus wrote:
How is that obvious?
I dunno if it's obvious to you but it is to anyone involved with sportsbetting 
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If they have to "secure their pants" like that, that just shows they're not big enough to support themselfs (and there for should be avoided). I have never seen a serious "betting organisation" that uses this system (ok I haven't looked for it there probably is, but it's just hard to imagine).
The odds shouldn't change, because it doesn't matter how much you bet on a team It's not going to magicly make them better.
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The odds change because odds are only figures given by people. Sometimes they have extensive knowlegde and can give odds that are accurate. Sometimes they are just plain wrong. That is then reflected in the way people bet because the odds will adapt. It is a measure of adjusting to the real betting odds. Remember that your bet is always fixed at the rate you made it, the changes only apply for future bets.
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On January 17 2010 20:47 sashkata wrote:
If they have to "secure their pants" like that, that just shows they're not big enough to support themselfs (and there for should be avoided). I have never seen a serious "betting organisation" that uses this system (ok I haven't looked for it there probably is, but it's just hard to imagine).
The odds shouldn't change, because it doesn't matter how much you bet on a team It's not going to magicly make them better.
bodog.com sportsbook.com 5dimes.com betcris.com sportbet.com pinnaclesports.com and every other sportsbetting site I've heard of. Every decently operated casino tries to get action from both sides of a line so they make profit from the rake while paying the winners with the losers' funds. When lines are released they are designed to get bets in on both sides. If it turns out one side is bet more than the other they adjust it so the lines keep floating in the middle of both sides.
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On January 17 2010 20:23 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:I dunno if it's obvious to you but it is to anyone involved with sportsbetting
If you have an expert setting the odds and if you know the general public bets wrongly then why adjust?
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Jaedong is their favorite to win the MSL o.O. The odds on Flash are 1.95-1. Moreover, Flash's odds are even better for the first game of the series (2.1-1). I don't think they know what they're doing; why even have fixed odds for something as unpredictable as professional starcraft?
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On January 17 2010 22:40 Glaucus wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2010 20:23 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:I dunno if it's obvious to you but it is to anyone involved with sportsbetting If you have an expert setting the odds and if you know the general public bets wrongly then why adjust?
Because then it REALLY sucks when the next 10 matches go the wrong way. The variance can get insane. Shifting odds gives the bookie very small variance. They pay the winners with the loser's money while just making money off the rake.
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I'm not saying it's wrong. I am saying it's not obvious.
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Tried adding some money, but kept getting a "ERROR IN VARIABLE: CUSTOMER COUNTRY" error, so I'm just going to assume that since I'm from the US, I can't participate. 
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Yeah xlbet doesn't operate in the US cause of some gambling laws.
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Yeah, I figured that might happen. Really sucks, though. 
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So did anyone make any cash off of this?
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On January 18 2010 08:16 So no fek wrote:Tried adding some money, but kept getting a "ERROR IN VARIABLE: CUSTOMER COUNTRY" error, so I'm just going to assume that since I'm from the US, I can't participate.
If you have a trusted foreign friend, maybe he can help you get an account. Not much you can do other than that, if you want to bet there.
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T.O.P.
Hong Kong4685 Posts
On January 18 2010 08:33 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
So did anyone make any cash off of this?
+ Show Spoiler [OSL Finals] +Well Rekrul told everyone to bet on Movie and movie got raped.
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lol
I personally think the odds of flash winning that series were > 5:1
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I'm curious if some TL guys are going to bet on this after the games are played but before they are streamed. Talk about a lucrative opportunity. Seems like a perfect fit for Nazgul (besides the dishonesty. I mean TSL+betting)
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Katowice25012 Posts
On January 17 2010 21:21 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2010 20:47 sashkata wrote:
If they have to "secure their pants" like that, that just shows they're not big enough to support themselfs (and there for should be avoided). I have never seen a serious "betting organisation" that uses this system (ok I haven't looked for it there probably is, but it's just hard to imagine).
The odds shouldn't change, because it doesn't matter how much you bet on a team It's not going to magicly make them better. bodog.com sportsbook.com 5dimes.com betcris.com sportbet.com pinnaclesports.com and every other sportsbetting site I've heard of. Every decently operated casino tries to get action from both sides of a line so they make profit from the rake while paying the winners with the losers' funds. When lines are released they are designed to get bets in on both sides. If it turns out one side is bet more than the other they adjust it so the lines keep floating in the middle of both sides.
A few years ago I read a book by the dude who ran the Mirage's sportsbook in the 80s (don't remember who off the top of my head) and he made a really big point about how the actual amount of money a casino has riding on an outcome is considerably larger than they would like you to believe. Apparently if their handicapper thinks public opinion is off enough he is given some permission to have an overlay that is basically the casino's money riding on it. Specifically he mentioned the redskins-raiders game losing them 7 figures. Also had a funny anecdote about how only one sports book in vegas had the Tyson-Douglas fight on the board at 65-1 and had some kid put 2k on Douglas (which was apparently a huge % of their total action).
So supposedly thats how it was done at one institution several decades ago. Of course even if that is true it would be insane to say the odds don't change at all, as that would violate every single law about how predicting the unknown works.
I have never seen a serious "betting organisation" that uses this system (ok I haven't looked for it there probably is, but it's just hard to imagine).
This line in particular makes me think you have never seen any kind of betting organization anywhere in the world. They all do this. I'm not just talking about sports books either, every single wall street firm does the exact same thing, as does any serious investor or hedge fund manager.
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I've just noticed odds were against gosi terran wining!
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On January 19 2010 11:46 heyoka wrote:Show nested quote +I have never seen a serious "betting organisation" that uses this system (ok I haven't looked for it there probably is, but it's just hard to imagine). This line in particular makes me think you have never seen any kind of betting organization anywhere in the world. They all do this. I'm not just talking about sports books either, every single wall street firm does the exact same thing, as does any serious investor or hedge fund manager.
yeah, whatever. They don't ALL do this. Obsly there are more than I though, cause I used just 2 bookies. Sportingbet.com and a local one called evrofootball.
Of course even if that is true it would be insane to say the odds don't change at all, as that would violate every single law about how predicting the unknown works.
What? Pls explain it to me. If right now somebody sets up a match between me and Flash my chanses are 1000000:1. If the whole world starts betting on me to win that is not going to magicly make me better at starcraft. My chances of winning are still 1000000:1.
If you have an expert setting the odds and you're big enough you never lose. There is a lot of mathematics involved. Everything is calculated. I know it's easy to think "But what if 100 upsets happen in a short period of time?", but that is very, very unlikely. (and even if it happens every decent bookie should have a safety net). It's very similar to pot odds and how you play draws after the flop in poker. It's the power of probability.
I understand what you are talking about. I just don't like the odds shiting away from the true odds, because of people betting (it annoys me lol). Of course fixed odds are not true odds as well, but at least they're close and don't move.
Anyway this argument is kind of pointless. I was wrong. I guess there are a lot of "betting organisations" using the system. It's just not what I'm used to.
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On January 19 2010 21:57 sashkata wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 19 2010 11:46 heyoka wrote:Show nested quote +I have never seen a serious "betting organisation" that uses this system (ok I haven't looked for it there probably is, but it's just hard to imagine). This line in particular makes me think you have never seen any kind of betting organization anywhere in the world. They all do this. I'm not just talking about sports books either, every single wall street firm does the exact same thing, as does any serious investor or hedge fund manager. yeah, whatever. They don't ALL do this. Obsly there are more than I though, cause I used just 2 bookies. Sportingbet.com and a local one called evrofootball. Of course even if that is true it would be insane to say the odds don't change at all, as that would violate every single law about how predicting the unknown works.
What? Pls explain it to me. If right now somebody sets up a match between me and Flash my chanses are 1000000:1. If the whole world starts betting on me to win that is not going to magicly make me better at starcraft. My chances of winning are still 1000000:1. If you have an expert setting the odds and you're big enough you never lose. There is a lot of mathematics involved. Everything is calculated. I know it's easy to think "But what if 100 upsets happen in a short period of time?", but that is very, very unlikely. (and even if it happens every decent bookie should have a safety net). It's very similar to pot odds and how you play draws after the flop in poker. It's the power of probability. I understand what you are talking about. I just don't like the odds shiting away from the true odds, because of people betting (it annoys me lol). Of course fixed odds are not true odds as well, but at least they're close and don't move. Anyway this argument is kind of pointless. I was wrong. I guess there are a lot of "betting organisations" using the system. It's just not what I'm used to.
The shifting odds just make betting more interesting IMO. You now have to bet on matches where you have more insight and knows that a game will produce an upset, with respect to the general public oppinion, instead of one person (the expert setting the bets).
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EPT
