EPThere are the odds (fixed odds) from a well known professional betting website for the TSL R3 matches.
I thought it might interest you.
![[image loading]](http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/15/sanstitre5tb.jpg)
ps: I dont mention the source because i dont know if TL allows it.
TSL R3 Odds
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gds
Iceland1391 Posts
here are the odds (fixed odds) from a well known professional betting website for the TSL R3 matches. I thought it might interest you. ps: I dont mention the source because i dont know if TL allows it. | ||
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538
Hungary3932 Posts
(I see Horror has 6.10, I'd play that too for the possible reward, but Nony seemed pretty good against Idra. hm...) | ||
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PredY
Czech Republic1731 Posts
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NonY
8751 Posts
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Vic.nQQ
Bulgaria88 Posts
On January 17 2010 02:38 PredY wrote: so wrong odds Then go bet and make a fortune  | ||
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Ao_Jun
Denmark396 Posts
On January 17 2010 02:38 PredY wrote: so wrong odds Start betting and make some money then! :D I'd think about putting some money up against mondragon and nony with those odds.. And i think the strelok/Kabal odds are skewed as well  | ||
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rjT.
Italy295 Posts
link plzz | ||
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Boblion
France8043 Posts
Also i know that mondi is good but srly 1.18 ? lol | ||
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50bani
Romania480 Posts
Nony got rolled pretty hard imo. Not sure what happened on 'romeda but it must have been a fluke. | ||
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MadNeSs
Denmark1507 Posts
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gds
Iceland1391 Posts
On January 17 2010 03:05 50bani wrote: Weird. Then again I think most of that is generated by people betting, right? No these are FIXED odds (not floating odds), it is not generated by people betting. | ||
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barth
Ireland1272 Posts
On January 17 2010 03:05 MadNeSs wrote: Which site is this from? + Show Spoiler + xlbet.com | ||
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2v2AiSieesch
Germany98 Posts
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m3rciless
United States1476 Posts
On January 17 2010 03:05 50bani wrote: Weird. Then again I think most of that is generated by people betting, right? Nony got rolled pretty hard imo. Not sure what happened on 'romeda but it must have been a fluke. How can you say nony got rolled pretty hard when you plainly haven't watched the games, or even discussed them with anyone? If you had even the slightest knowledge about the match, you would know what happened on andromeda, it was definitely the most memorable moment of the match. | ||
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Piy
Scotland3152 Posts
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barth
Ireland1272 Posts
On January 17 2010 03:22 Piy wrote: Lol Nony should just bet 2k on himself losing and throw the game :p Shhhhh  | ||
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50bani
Romania480 Posts
On January 17 2010 03:18 m3rciless wrote: How can you say nony got rolled pretty hard when you plainly haven't watched the games, or even discussed them with anyone? If you had even the slightest knowledge about the match, you would know what happened on andromeda, it was definitely the most memorable moment of the match. I have seen the games. Nony got rolled. My point was that he should have lost on Andromeda. I believe he caught Idra a bit unprepared and clumped up. | ||
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theqat
United States2856 Posts
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Deleted User 3420
24492 Posts
it does appear to be from the netherlands or is this the doing of pokerstrategy.com people? either way i find it weird, the odds seem weird lol | ||
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rANDY
United Kingdom748 Posts
I placed a bet on Kolll ^^ | ||
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Deleted User 3420
24492 Posts
the betting is putting nony as the underdog, or the favorite? | ||
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PredY
Czech Republic1731 Posts
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InFiNitY[pG]
Germany3474 Posts
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Traveler
United States451 Posts
On January 17 2010 03:22 Piy wrote: Lol Nony should just bet 2k on himself losing and throw the game :p This. I would laugh and laugh is Nony won more money from betting against himself than he could have from winning the entire thing. | ||
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Myrkul
Croatia132 Posts
lol got beat by 3 people.... | ||
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Deleted User 3420
24492 Posts
On January 17 2010 03:54 InFiNitY[pG] wrote: the lower the number, the higher you are favored to win. I think it works like this, bet 10$ on nony, you get 10.90 if he wins. bet 10 on horror and you win 61 if he wins ok thanks guys and woooooww... do they know something I don't? lol seriously can someone explain that? why are the odds so insanely skewed? | ||
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Terranator
Canada286 Posts
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CruiseR
Poland4014 Posts
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InFiNitY[pG]
Germany3474 Posts
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NiGoL
1868 Posts
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Deleted User 3420
24492 Posts
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Puosu
7045 Posts
I guess they take such a bad "rake" though that its hardly profitable to use them even though their odds are probably horribly inaccurate. | ||
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DarkOptik
452 Posts
On January 17 2010 04:01 InFiNitY[pG] wrote: again not sure, but I think they will start with certain odds that they feel reasonable or maybe even 50:50 (?) and whenever people bet on nony, his number will decrease and horror's will increase Aren't the odds fixed though (according to OP), so the people betting won't have any impact on the odds itself? | ||
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CruiseR
Poland4014 Posts
On January 17 2010 04:03 NiGoL wrote: provide us with the sites which u base these odds on www.xlbet.com odds are OK imo, except like 2 matches | ||
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InFiNitY[pG]
Germany3474 Posts
On January 17 2010 04:08 DarkOptik wrote: Aren't the odds fixed though (according to OP), so the people betting won't have any impact on the odds itself? I guess you are right, I missed the "fixed odds" part in the OP | ||
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Trezeguet
United States2656 Posts
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GreEny K
Germany7312 Posts
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d(O.o)a
Canada5066 Posts
On January 17 2010 04:34 GreEny K wrote: Idk... Nony took a game off idra and he played damn well. Dont think horror will win it. that's why every dollar on him is equal to 6 dollars if he wins. | ||
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noddyz
United Kingdom462 Posts
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Pika Chu
Romania2510 Posts
On January 17 2010 04:01 InFiNitY[pG] wrote: again not sure, but I think they will start with certain odds that they feel reasonable or maybe even 50:50 (?) and whenever people bet on nony, his number will decrease and horror's will increase No, that's another betting system that's used by gg.net for example. Dynamic odds. These are fixed odds. | ||
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Liquid`Nazgul
22427 Posts
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Catyoul
France2377 Posts
edit: hm... We will aim towards providing fixed lines for all national and international E-Sports leagues and events and furthermore we offer odds on a wide selection of other sports events | ||
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sashkata
Bulgaria3241 Posts
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ProoM
Lithuania1741 Posts
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Liquid`Zephyr
United States996 Posts
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emucxg
Finland4559 Posts
I think I will NEVER bet on that site lol | ||
Rekrul
Korea (South)17174 Posts
and nazgul u don't mean they can change your bet right? once u place a bet at set odds u get that deal (except in horseracing lol) | ||
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So no fek
United States3001 Posts
On January 17 2010 10:46 Rekrul wrote: wow flash movie is like 5-1 ....BET all your money on movie if you have a brain (that is if they don't change odds) and nazgul u don't mean they can change your bet right? once u place a bet at set odds u get that deal (except in horseracing lol) Yeah, I was thinking of signing up, and betting on Movie. Also, I may be wrong on how the handicap betting works, but there's two for Movie vs Flash, and the second has Movie at +2.5. So I would assume that means that even if Flash wins 3-1, you still win the bet (since it would be 3-3.5). Granted the payout isn't the best, but I'd say it's a moderately safe way to win a bit of money. | ||
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Rekrul
Korea (South)17174 Posts
and 5-1 is just LOL for the whole series, it cant be even 2-1 | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
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So no fek
United States3001 Posts
On January 17 2010 16:34 Shikyo wrote: What the... isn't this extremely easy to abuse if they are fixed odds? Like, I could make a deal with Nony that he loses and bet 5k on Horror and then split the winnings in half with him? Lol... To an extent, I guess, but: trying to bet on movie vs flash but betting is capped at max $200 profit? god damnit let me allin I guess if you had tons of people bet horror, it may work out, and you could still make a tidy profit yourself, but I doubt it'd be worth it for Nony to throw the games, unless he had a deal worked up with a ton of people. | ||
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Glaucus
479 Posts
On January 17 2010 16:34 Shikyo wrote: What the... isn't this extremely easy to abuse if they are fixed odds? Like, I could make a deal with Nony that he loses and bet 5k on Horror and then split the winnings in half with him? Lol... This is what is going to happen next TSL. People already cheat on the ladder. What's to stop them from throwing a game, knowing they are very unlikely to make any money anyway? It happens in all other sports. | ||
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neustadt
Germany39 Posts
cant find any bets on http://www.xlfrag.com [update] eh. xlBET.com | ||
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Jonoman92
United States9110 Posts
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Catyoul
France2377 Posts
On January 16 2010 21:29 Rekrul wrote: 5.75:1 is ridiculous, maybe im a dog at 2:1 for a bo5, but still, 5.75:1 LOL lol yeah their odds are a bit extreme. It's off the website now but I think it was 1.1 if you bet on Flash, 5.75 if you bet on Movie. Btw their odds are 5.75 for 1 not 5.75 to 1, so it's like 4.75:1 (if I read properly). Since it's BO5, that means : - if you bet on Flash, you must think he has > 76% chance to win every individual match - if you bet on Move, you must think Flash has < 69% chance to win every individual match (the difference is the rake obv) Now, betting on Flash would be completely ridiculous. As for betting on Movie, 69% chance to win every single game is a very high number and I'd instabet if it was anyone but Flash, but we must admit he does have a >70% record lifetime (which is beyond sick, although he's at "only" 67% TvP), and that includes less dominating periods. And Movie doesn't seem particularly dominating PvT. I'd still bet on Movie, but the edge is less than it seems imo. On January 17 2010 17:27 Jonoman92 wrote: Wait... you can do betting for the TSL? I mean did it really have Morrow as a favorite over Kolll? That is some weird stuff. Apparenty yes, and no Morrow wasn't a favorite. PS : and what Nazgul meant is that the line moves after you have made a bet for the next people who want to bet, not for you. | ||
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zerotol
Belgium508 Posts
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Catyoul
France2377 Posts
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sashkata
Bulgaria3241 Posts
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Glaucus
479 Posts
On January 17 2010 17:45 zerotol wrote: Of course odds change after a lot of people vote on the underdog because obviously the odds are wrong then... How is that obvious? | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
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Liquid`Nazgul
22427 Posts
On January 17 2010 18:46 sashkata wrote: The odds should have nothing to do with how many people bet how much money on whom. The only thing the odds should represent is the chance of a player/team winning (according to professionals). And that obvsly doesn't change with people betting. This is so incredibly wrong. Odds always change with people betting so that bets will come in for both sides and the sites can make a guaranteed profit. (Of course once you put in your bet your own bet won't change) On January 17 2010 19:08 Glaucus wrote: How is that obvious? I dunno if it's obvious to you but it is to anyone involved with sportsbetting | ||
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sashkata
Bulgaria3241 Posts
The odds shouldn't change, because it doesn't matter how much you bet on a team It's not going to magicly make them better. | ||
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zerotol
Belgium508 Posts
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Liquid`Nazgul
22427 Posts
On January 17 2010 20:47 sashkata wrote: If they have to "secure their pants" like that, that just shows they're not big enough to support themselfs (and there for should be avoided). I have never seen a serious "betting organisation" that uses this system (ok I haven't looked for it there probably is, but it's just hard to imagine). The odds shouldn't change, because it doesn't matter how much you bet on a team It's not going to magicly make them better. bodog.com sportsbook.com 5dimes.com betcris.com sportbet.com pinnaclesports.com and every other sportsbetting site I've heard of. Every decently operated casino tries to get action from both sides of a line so they make profit from the rake while paying the winners with the losers' funds. When lines are released they are designed to get bets in on both sides. If it turns out one side is bet more than the other they adjust it so the lines keep floating in the middle of both sides. | ||
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Glaucus
479 Posts
On January 17 2010 20:23 Liquid`Nazgul wrote: I dunno if it's obvious to you but it is to anyone involved with sportsbetting If you have an expert setting the odds and if you know the general public bets wrongly then why adjust? | ||
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agen
Barbados111 Posts
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Pooshlmer
United States1001 Posts
On January 17 2010 22:40 Glaucus wrote: If you have an expert setting the odds and if you know the general public bets wrongly then why adjust? Because then it REALLY sucks when the next 10 matches go the wrong way. The variance can get insane. Shifting odds gives the bookie very small variance. They pay the winners with the loser's money while just making money off the rake. | ||
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Glaucus
479 Posts
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So no fek
United States3001 Posts
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jiabung
United States720 Posts
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So no fek
United States3001 Posts
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vx70GTOJudgexv
United States3161 Posts
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cyclone25
Romania3344 Posts
On January 18 2010 08:16 So no fek wrote: Tried adding some money, but kept getting a "ERROR IN VARIABLE: CUSTOMER COUNTRY" error, so I'm just going to assume that since I'm from the US, I can't participate. If you have a trusted foreign friend, maybe he can help you get an account. Not much you can do other than that, if you want to bet there. | ||
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T.O.P.
Hong Kong4685 Posts
On January 18 2010 08:33 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: So did anyone make any cash off of this? + Show Spoiler [OSL Finals] + Well Rekrul told everyone to bet on Movie and movie got raped. | ||
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Pokebunny
United States10654 Posts
On January 19 2010 09:51 T.O.P. wrote: + Show Spoiler [OSL Finals] + Well Rekrul told everyone to bet on Movie and movie got raped. lol I personally think the odds of flash winning that series were > 5:1 | ||
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Durak
Canada3685 Posts
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Heyoka
Katowice25012 Posts
On January 17 2010 21:21 Liquid`Nazgul wrote: bodog.com sportsbook.com 5dimes.com betcris.com sportbet.com pinnaclesports.com and every other sportsbetting site I've heard of. Every decently operated casino tries to get action from both sides of a line so they make profit from the rake while paying the winners with the losers' funds. When lines are released they are designed to get bets in on both sides. If it turns out one side is bet more than the other they adjust it so the lines keep floating in the middle of both sides. A few years ago I read a book by the dude who ran the Mirage's sportsbook in the 80s (don't remember who off the top of my head) and he made a really big point about how the actual amount of money a casino has riding on an outcome is considerably larger than they would like you to believe. Apparently if their handicapper thinks public opinion is off enough he is given some permission to have an overlay that is basically the casino's money riding on it. Specifically he mentioned the redskins-raiders game losing them 7 figures. Also had a funny anecdote about how only one sports book in vegas had the Tyson-Douglas fight on the board at 65-1 and had some kid put 2k on Douglas (which was apparently a huge % of their total action). So supposedly thats how it was done at one institution several decades ago. Of course even if that is true it would be insane to say the odds don't change at all, as that would violate every single law about how predicting the unknown works. I have never seen a serious "betting organisation" that uses this system (ok I haven't looked for it there probably is, but it's just hard to imagine). This line in particular makes me think you have never seen any kind of betting organization anywhere in the world. They all do this. I'm not just talking about sports books either, every single wall street firm does the exact same thing, as does any serious investor or hedge fund manager. | ||
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ProoM
Lithuania1741 Posts
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sashkata
Bulgaria3241 Posts
On January 19 2010 11:46 heyoka wrote: This line in particular makes me think you have never seen any kind of betting organization anywhere in the world. They all do this. I'm not just talking about sports books either, every single wall street firm does the exact same thing, as does any serious investor or hedge fund manager. yeah, whatever. They don't ALL do this. Obsly there are more than I though, cause I used just 2 bookies. Sportingbet.com and a local one called evrofootball. Of course even if that is true it would be insane to say the odds don't change at all, as that would violate every single law about how predicting the unknown works. What? Pls explain it to me. If right now somebody sets up a match between me and Flash my chanses are 1000000:1. If the whole world starts betting on me to win that is not going to magicly make me better at starcraft. My chances of winning are still 1000000:1. If you have an expert setting the odds and you're big enough you never lose. There is a lot of mathematics involved. Everything is calculated. I know it's easy to think "But what if 100 upsets happen in a short period of time?", but that is very, very unlikely. (and even if it happens every decent bookie should have a safety net). It's very similar to pot odds and how you play draws after the flop in poker. It's the power of probability. I understand what you are talking about. I just don't like the odds shiting away from the true odds, because of people betting (it annoys me lol). Of course fixed odds are not true odds as well, but at least they're close and don't move. Anyway this argument is kind of pointless. I was wrong. I guess there are a lot of "betting organisations" using the system. It's just not what I'm used to. | ||
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Ota Solgryn
Denmark2011 Posts
On January 19 2010 21:57 sashkata wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 19 2010 11:46 heyoka wrote: This line in particular makes me think you have never seen any kind of betting organization anywhere in the world. They all do this. I'm not just talking about sports books either, every single wall street firm does the exact same thing, as does any serious investor or hedge fund manager. yeah, whatever. They don't ALL do this. Obsly there are more than I though, cause I used just 2 bookies. Sportingbet.com and a local one called evrofootball. Of course even if that is true it would be insane to say the odds don't change at all, as that would violate every single law about how predicting the unknown works. What? Pls explain it to me. If right now somebody sets up a match between me and Flash my chanses are 1000000:1. If the whole world starts betting on me to win that is not going to magicly make me better at starcraft. My chances of winning are still 1000000:1. If you have an expert setting the odds and you're big enough you never lose. There is a lot of mathematics involved. Everything is calculated. I know it's easy to think "But what if 100 upsets happen in a short period of time?", but that is very, very unlikely. (and even if it happens every decent bookie should have a safety net). It's very similar to pot odds and how you play draws after the flop in poker. It's the power of probability. Anyway this argument is kind of pointless. I was wrong. I guess there are a lot of "betting organisations" using the system. It's just not what I'm used to. The shifting odds just make betting more interesting IMO. You now have to bet on matches where you have more insight and knows that a game will produce an upset, with respect to the general public oppinion, instead of one person (the expert setting the bets). | ||
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Liquid`Nazgul
22427 Posts
On January 19 2010 22:17 Psyqo wrote: This seems like a drama bomb waiting to explode. Will the next TSL (and/or foreign Starcraft tourney) require their participants to sign a form stating that they won't gamble on their own matches? The betting limits on this site are small and it has to continue to be that way for SC. There are laws against betting on your own matches my guess would be you don't need a rule for that but don't quote me on it. | ||
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Psyqo
United States401 Posts
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yarders
United Kingdom194 Posts
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Jonoman92
United States9110 Posts
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chobopeon
United States7342 Posts
i might be able to grab a bet: a friend wants to bet that idra will win the entire thing and is willing to give me odds. i would love to see a giant upset in which idra falls. it isn't likely, i know, but that's what odds and dreams are for .. the question is, what sort of odds should i be asking for for this? | ||
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