2023 GSL Code S Season 1

RO8 Group B Preview: Dark, TY, Cure, herO

Start time: Thursday, Jul 20 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Mizenhauer

'Group of death' doesn't have quite the same weight to it when there's only two groups, but you have to admit that Group B is looking especially fatal. Dark, Cure, and herO are all players who would look right at home in the GSL finals, and could potentially stop Maru from completing the G7L (GS7? You guys decide).

Also, even a military-weakened version of TY could be a threat to upset, as he already proved to us in the RO16. After GuMiho's strong performance in Group A, everyone should be especially wary of strategically brilliant Terrans.

Dark

When I previewed Dark's situation before his RO16 group, I wrote "Despite Dark’s recent struggles and GuMiho’s recent miracle run at ESL Summer, Dark has to be the favorite to advance in first place—at least on paper." Dark did indeed advance in first place, but didn't quite dominate the way you'd expect from a heavy favorite. He was thoroughly outplayed in his first game against SpeCial, an opponent who he was expected to smash 2-0. He then looked rather sluggish in a 2-1 win against Creator, where his poor defense let Creator deal way more early-game damage than you'd expect.

Dark was very critical of his poor play in the post-match interview, which you could take as a positive or negative. A positive, because he acknowledged there's room for improvement, and might have practiced especially hard for this group. A negative, because there's no getting over the fact that he DID play quite poorly, and that might reflect his general form at the moment.

After a less-than-convincing showing in the RO16, Dark can't be entirely pleased at how the RO8 groups broke. At least the first match should favor him, as TY seems to be a long way off from recovering his old form. The GSL casters had no qualms about teasing his low MMR in his post-match interview, and Maru even took a semi-joking shot at TY for not practicing particularly hard lately. Once upon a time, this showdown easily could have been a Code S final, but right now only the most meticulous build-order planning from TY could make this close.

Thanks to this soft initial match, Aligulac is rather kind to Dark here and gives him a 70% chance of advancing from the group. However, the competition is extremely tight between Dark, herO, and Cure (Aligulac gives Dark a 43% chance against herO and 49% chance vs Cure), and it's not implausible at all for Dark to drop two series and miss out on the semifinals for the third straight season.

Given Dark's RO16 form, I don't know that we'll see peak Dark in this group. Any potential victories against Cure or herO will probably come through him making the games messy. Cure and herO have always been blunt instruments, and Dark’s superior game sense and decision making would give him the advantage if the games devolve into chaos.

TY

TY is almost certainly going to finish in fourth place in what is an otherwise stacked group, but it’s been a pleasure to see the two-time Code S champion return to the competition.

TY failed to qualify in Season 1, but reached the opening round in Season 2 after defeating Armani, Scarlett, and Classic in the qualifiers. He was aided in his RO16 group by some poor performances from Bunny and Classic, but there were some games that highlighted his cerebral play. He forced map-split scenarios against both Bunny and Classic on NeoHumanity, where his superior understanding of late-game compositions and tech-switch timings allowed him to overcome any mechanical deficiencies.

However, given TY's recent results and performances in other games, it's hard to give him much of a chance to cause more upsets (it's not a good sign that TY himself seemed a bit surprised to advance from his RO16 group). Aligulac gives TY a generous 13% and 24% chance of defeating herO and Cure, but those numbers would probably be even lower if TY had played enough post-military matches to reach his 'true' rating.

This won’t be the season TY recaptures the form that earned him multiple Code S championships, but we can hope these tough matches help shape him back into the great player he was three years ago.

Cure

In the absence of DieuCure, I will be assuming his duties as TL.net’s only Cure fan. After closing the 2022/23 season in disappointing fashion by choking his way out of the IEM Katowice group stages, Cure has been lighting it up to start the 23/24 campaign. Not only did he make it all the way to the finals of Code S Season 1, but he somehow reached the playoffs ESL Masters: Summer while playing with a fractured bone in his arm. The healed Cure has looked strong so far in this current season of Code S, advancing from his RO16 with a clean 4-0 map record (wins vs Astrea and Solar).

If we look at Cure's record since February 13th (the day after IEM Katowice concluded), he's won an impressive 76% of his matches and stands in the 3rd place spot in the overall Aligulac.com standings. As disappointing as Cure's outing at the last World Championship was, it really does seem like it motivated him to retool and come back as an even stronger player.

Like Dark, Aligulac gives Cure around a 70% chance of advancing from this group. However, I think that number might be underrating his recent form, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he once again advances without dropping a map. herO is looking like a shadow of the man who reignited his career in 2022 by winning Code S Season 2 and DH Masters Atlanta, and PvT has actually been his worst win-rate matchup since IEM Katowice. Conversely, TvP has been Cure's best match-up in the same time period, where he boasts an imposing 87% match win-rate.

Dark vs Cure could go either way, and the two are deeply familiar with each other from many online battles. However, momentum seems to be on Cure's side at the moment, and I think he'll come through with a victory in a potential clash.

herO

As touched on briefly above, herO would have been considered the strongest player in this group just six months ago. But the 2023/2024 season of professional StarCraft has not been kind to him, and his combined map record through two seasons of Code S so far is a worrisome 6-8. While he's at least made the RO8 this season after last season's RO16 exit, that was a very low bar to clear.

Of all the players to reach the RO8, herO was the only one who posted an even map-score of 4-4 in the previous round. He lost some of his RO16 games due to costly blunders, while his wins weren't particularly convincing either. His close-out game against NightMare was a particularly grotesque (if somewhat amusing) horror show, something worthy of being force-shown to subjects during the Ludovico Technique from A Clockwork Orange.

I’m sure many in the community want herO to advance, if only for increased racial diversity, but the herO of late looks incapable of performing at the level required to reach the Round of 4. Aligulac may give him the benefit of the doubt in their predictions (he still has a 52% of advancing), but those figures are buoyed by herO’s online results. Since IEM Katowice, herO is 4-3 in offline matches. Those three losses, however, were delivered by Elazer, Creator and NightMare—none of whom are on the level of Cure or Dark. As things stand, he might even have to be a little bit concerned about TY sending him home should they meet in the loser’s match.

Predictions

Dark 2 - 1 TY
Cure 2 - 0 herO
Cure 2 - 1 Dark
herO 2 - 1 TY
Dark 2 - 1 herO

Cure and Dark to advance

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