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On February 09 2022 09:52 warnull wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2022 05:55 honorablemacroterran wrote:On February 09 2022 05:04 Drfilip wrote:On February 09 2022 03:13 Vindicare605 wrote:
LOL. Now Time and Cyan can't even compete so we're going to rotate some random alternate lower ranked player into Group B.
These groups are so lopsided. But it's ESL I don't know what I expected. ESL has been relatively transparent about the process. These groups have been selected via tiers according to points. Top 4 players are distributed in the groups, then the next 4 players, then the next etc. Tier 1, score above 2669: Serral, Trap, Maru, Rogue. Tier 2, score between 2536 and 1976: Cure, Dark, Clem, Zest. Tier 3, score between 1914 and 1333: Reynor, TIME, Solar, Big Gabe. Tier 4, score between 1315 and 1237: Juanito, Neeb, Bunny, Scarlett. Tier 5, score below 1173: Dream, Lambo, Showtime, Zoun. The lopsidedness of the groups is a consequence of player performance over the last year. People who have done well in tournaments get more points. Anyone unlucky enough to be eliminated early will get fewer points. The data points can be a bit few. They could have used more data points and just ripped off Aligulac, but that isn't really part of the entertainment that lures us viewers. Any system used will have flaws. ESL has been open about how the system works. What you expect should be exactly this. It is what we've had for a long time. I think you're misunderstanding the issue. There is a constrained random draw process. The fact they are so lopsided is ostensibly because of the random draws from each tier and how they got assigned to each group. There are many ways the groups could have been drawn given the rules. They are as lopsided as they turned out to be 1% of the time. The point Drflip is making is that grouping players into tiers should not result in lopsided groups, even in the worst case. The reason why group D appears so much stronger is largely because Reynor (#9) and Scarlett (#13) play at a higher level than what their EPT rankings suggest. Any group assignment based on EPT points will suffer if the EPT points do not reflect player strength. Just as group assignment based on aligulac will seem unfair if aligulac ratings are not predictive. IMO the "Group D is top 1% in lopsidedness" stat, which you keep repeating, is misleading. You're comparing group D to other groups from the tiered selection, and finding that it is more lopsided than 99% of them. But the groups resulting from tiered selection are pretty even - even the worst possible group has just 15% more EPT points than the average. (10k vs 8.5k) What you should be comparing group D to are the groups assigned without the tier restriction. For instance, if Group E had Maru, Rogue, Trap, Serral, and Clem, for a total of 14225 EPT points. Or if Group F had Lambo, Showtime, Zoun, Dream, and Special, for a total of 5007 points. Now those are some lopsided groups. Not group D, which seems even by comparison.
Why would we compare it to something even less fair exactly? If you don't like the randomization inference, here's three other ways to look at it that I think make the same point.
1) The distance of Group D from the average of the other three groups is 3x the range of the other three groups.
2) The difference of the sum of points in Group D and Group B is 16% larger than the difference between the Tier 1 and Tier 4 player in Group B and almost the same as the difference between the Tier 1 and Tier 5 player in Group A (94%)
3) The difference of the sum of points in Group D and the average of the other three groups is more than three Dream Hack season finals championships (450)
Personally, the last one is my favorite.
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On February 09 2022 12:25 honorablemacroterran wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2022 09:52 warnull wrote:On February 09 2022 05:55 honorablemacroterran wrote:On February 09 2022 05:04 Drfilip wrote:On February 09 2022 03:13 Vindicare605 wrote:
LOL. Now Time and Cyan can't even compete so we're going to rotate some random alternate lower ranked player into Group B.
These groups are so lopsided. But it's ESL I don't know what I expected. ESL has been relatively transparent about the process. These groups have been selected via tiers according to points. Top 4 players are distributed in the groups, then the next 4 players, then the next etc. Tier 1, score above 2669: Serral, Trap, Maru, Rogue. Tier 2, score between 2536 and 1976: Cure, Dark, Clem, Zest. Tier 3, score between 1914 and 1333: Reynor, TIME, Solar, Big Gabe. Tier 4, score between 1315 and 1237: Juanito, Neeb, Bunny, Scarlett. Tier 5, score below 1173: Dream, Lambo, Showtime, Zoun. The lopsidedness of the groups is a consequence of player performance over the last year. People who have done well in tournaments get more points. Anyone unlucky enough to be eliminated early will get fewer points. The data points can be a bit few. They could have used more data points and just ripped off Aligulac, but that isn't really part of the entertainment that lures us viewers. Any system used will have flaws. ESL has been open about how the system works. What you expect should be exactly this. It is what we've had for a long time. I think you're misunderstanding the issue. There is a constrained random draw process. The fact they are so lopsided is ostensibly because of the random draws from each tier and how they got assigned to each group. There are many ways the groups could have been drawn given the rules. They are as lopsided as they turned out to be 1% of the time. The point Drflip is making is that grouping players into tiers should not result in lopsided groups, even in the worst case. The reason why group D appears so much stronger is largely because Reynor (#9) and Scarlett (#13) play at a higher level than what their EPT rankings suggest. Any group assignment based on EPT points will suffer if the EPT points do not reflect player strength. Just as group assignment based on aligulac will seem unfair if aligulac ratings are not predictive. IMO the "Group D is top 1% in lopsidedness" stat, which you keep repeating, is misleading. You're comparing group D to other groups from the tiered selection, and finding that it is more lopsided than 99% of them. But the groups resulting from tiered selection are pretty even - even the worst possible group has just 15% more EPT points than the average. (10k vs 8.5k) What you should be comparing group D to are the groups assigned without the tier restriction. For instance, if Group E had Maru, Rogue, Trap, Serral, and Clem, for a total of 14225 EPT points. Or if Group F had Lambo, Showtime, Zoun, Dream, and Special, for a total of 5007 points. Now those are some lopsided groups. Not group D, which seems even by comparison. Why would we compare it to something even less fair exactly? If you don't like the randomization inference, here's three other ways to look at it that I think make the same point. 1) The distance of Group D from the average of the other three groups is 3x the range of the other three groups. 2) The difference of the sum of points in Group D and Group B is 16% larger than the difference between the Tier 1 and Tier 4 player in Group B and almost the same as the difference between the Tier 1 and Tier 5 player in Group A (94%) 3) The difference of the sum of points in Group D and the average of the other three groups is more than three Dream Hack season finals championships (450) Personally, the last one is my favorite.
warnull got the general gist of my point. ESL made a restrictive random selection and have been transparent in a lot of the process for 2 years now.
Random draw is more entertaining than strict, by the numerical value distribution in groups. We all should expect some imbalance in the groups.
My post was made because Vindicare seemed to blame ESL here and now for something that we basically knew would come since early 2020. I didn't understand Vindicare's attitude. It seems to be based on either ignorance (but Vindicare has shown interest for a long time) or entitlement (which Vindicare's comment history doesn't support either). This is disappointment shown in words that I don't understand. Making the post was my way of trying to undersand Vindicare.
Disregarding my point, honorablemacroterran is correct in that it is about the maximum lopsidedness we could get within this system.
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On February 09 2022 22:58 Drfilip wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2022 12:25 honorablemacroterran wrote:On February 09 2022 09:52 warnull wrote:On February 09 2022 05:55 honorablemacroterran wrote:On February 09 2022 05:04 Drfilip wrote:On February 09 2022 03:13 Vindicare605 wrote:
LOL. Now Time and Cyan can't even compete so we're going to rotate some random alternate lower ranked player into Group B.
These groups are so lopsided. But it's ESL I don't know what I expected. ESL has been relatively transparent about the process. These groups have been selected via tiers according to points. Top 4 players are distributed in the groups, then the next 4 players, then the next etc. Tier 1, score above 2669: Serral, Trap, Maru, Rogue. Tier 2, score between 2536 and 1976: Cure, Dark, Clem, Zest. Tier 3, score between 1914 and 1333: Reynor, TIME, Solar, Big Gabe. Tier 4, score between 1315 and 1237: Juanito, Neeb, Bunny, Scarlett. Tier 5, score below 1173: Dream, Lambo, Showtime, Zoun. The lopsidedness of the groups is a consequence of player performance over the last year. People who have done well in tournaments get more points. Anyone unlucky enough to be eliminated early will get fewer points. The data points can be a bit few. They could have used more data points and just ripped off Aligulac, but that isn't really part of the entertainment that lures us viewers. Any system used will have flaws. ESL has been open about how the system works. What you expect should be exactly this. It is what we've had for a long time. I think you're misunderstanding the issue. There is a constrained random draw process. The fact they are so lopsided is ostensibly because of the random draws from each tier and how they got assigned to each group. There are many ways the groups could have been drawn given the rules. They are as lopsided as they turned out to be 1% of the time. The point Drflip is making is that grouping players into tiers should not result in lopsided groups, even in the worst case. The reason why group D appears so much stronger is largely because Reynor (#9) and Scarlett (#13) play at a higher level than what their EPT rankings suggest. Any group assignment based on EPT points will suffer if the EPT points do not reflect player strength. Just as group assignment based on aligulac will seem unfair if aligulac ratings are not predictive. IMO the "Group D is top 1% in lopsidedness" stat, which you keep repeating, is misleading. You're comparing group D to other groups from the tiered selection, and finding that it is more lopsided than 99% of them. But the groups resulting from tiered selection are pretty even - even the worst possible group has just 15% more EPT points than the average. (10k vs 8.5k) What you should be comparing group D to are the groups assigned without the tier restriction. For instance, if Group E had Maru, Rogue, Trap, Serral, and Clem, for a total of 14225 EPT points. Or if Group F had Lambo, Showtime, Zoun, Dream, and Special, for a total of 5007 points. Now those are some lopsided groups. Not group D, which seems even by comparison. Why would we compare it to something even less fair exactly? If you don't like the randomization inference, here's three other ways to look at it that I think make the same point. 1) The distance of Group D from the average of the other three groups is 3x the range of the other three groups. 2) The difference of the sum of points in Group D and Group B is 16% larger than the difference between the Tier 1 and Tier 4 player in Group B and almost the same as the difference between the Tier 1 and Tier 5 player in Group A (94%) 3) The difference of the sum of points in Group D and the average of the other three groups is more than three Dream Hack season finals championships (450) Personally, the last one is my favorite. warnull got the general gist of my point. ESL made a restrictive random selection and have been transparent in a lot of the process for 2 years now. Random draw is more entertaining than strict, by the numerical value distribution in groups. We all should expect some imbalance in the groups. My post was made because Vindicare seemed to blame ESL here and now for something that we basically knew would come since early 2020. I didn't understand Vindicare's attitude. It seems to be based on either ignorance (but Vindicare has shown interest for a long time) or entitlement (which Vindicare's comment history doesn't support either). This is disappointment shown in words that I don't understand. Making the post was my way of trying to undersand Vindicare. Disregarding my point, honorablemacroterran is correct in that it is about the maximum lopsidedness we could get within this system.
The easiest way to fix any potential problems is to just televize the process. Iirc either BW ssl or asl televized the group draws, and it was highly entertaining while avoiding any flack from the any perceived shenanigans
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On February 05 2022 13:56 honorablemacroterran wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2022 13:00 kochanfe wrote:On February 04 2022 11:10 honorablemacroterran wrote:
I think it's amazing the amount of copium people have to be on to say that Group B and Group D are comparably competitive. Eh... per Aligulac (as of 02/04) Group D – Maru (3354), Reynor (3193), Clem (3099), Zoun (2739), Scarlett (2657) Group B – Serral (3325), Dark (3191), ShoWTimE (3021), TIME (2743), SpeCial (2613) Average Elo of 3008 and 2978, respectively. Group C – Zest (3116), HeRoMaRinE (2963), Trap (2880), Bunny (2868), Lambo (2798) Group A – Rogue (3131), Cure (3043), Solar (3030), Dream (2732), Neeb (2665) Average Elo of 2925 and 2920, respectively. Not sure what 'copium' is, but I think it's fair to say that while Group D is definitely the hardest, Group B is closer to being as hard as Group D than Groups C and A are to being as hard as Group B. Depends on what you mean by competitive though, I guess... Aligulac is shit. It predicted that MaxPax was favored over PartinG 5 months ago when I was playing with it, and when PartinG was a Ro4 GSL player and MaxPax wasn't as good as he is now. You should go by the points that were created to qualify people for this event. The ratings in your own post discredit Aligulac as far as I'm concerned without going after any individual players when it's not their fault. Suffice to say, it systematically overrates Europeans relative to Koreans.
it favors foreigners. gotta give koreans like 5% extra and u got ur true list^^
i still don't understand how they came up with these groups. on twitter i got an ESL guy telling me it was done by points, but that doesn't make sense at all, group D has all the highest point guys of their respective bracket.
but his response was liked 20 times so i felt stupid LUL
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On February 17 2022 07:23 KalWarkov wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2022 13:56 honorablemacroterran wrote:On February 05 2022 13:00 kochanfe wrote:On February 04 2022 11:10 honorablemacroterran wrote:
I think it's amazing the amount of copium people have to be on to say that Group B and Group D are comparably competitive. Eh... per Aligulac (as of 02/04) Group D – Maru (3354), Reynor (3193), Clem (3099), Zoun (2739), Scarlett (2657) Group B – Serral (3325), Dark (3191), ShoWTimE (3021), TIME (2743), SpeCial (2613) Average Elo of 3008 and 2978, respectively. Group C – Zest (3116), HeRoMaRinE (2963), Trap (2880), Bunny (2868), Lambo (2798) Group A – Rogue (3131), Cure (3043), Solar (3030), Dream (2732), Neeb (2665) Average Elo of 2925 and 2920, respectively. Not sure what 'copium' is, but I think it's fair to say that while Group D is definitely the hardest, Group B is closer to being as hard as Group D than Groups C and A are to being as hard as Group B. Depends on what you mean by competitive though, I guess... Aligulac is shit. It predicted that MaxPax was favored over PartinG 5 months ago when I was playing with it, and when PartinG was a Ro4 GSL player and MaxPax wasn't as good as he is now. You should go by the points that were created to qualify people for this event. The ratings in your own post discredit Aligulac as far as I'm concerned without going after any individual players when it's not their fault. Suffice to say, it systematically overrates Europeans relative to Koreans. it favors foreigners. gotta give koreans like 5% extra and u got ur true list^^ i still don't understand how they came up with these groups. on twitter i got an ESL guy telling me it was done by points, but that doesn't make sense at all, group D has all the highest point guys of their respective bracket. but his response was liked 20 times so i felt stupid LUL
They did go by points to make a restricted random draw.
They looked at the list of players by points and took the top 4. They were randomly distributed in groups. Next were players 5-8 being randomly assigned. Then 9-12 etc.
If players 1, 5, 9, 13 and 17 got placed in one group and players 4, 8, 12, 16 and 20 got placed in another then the group points would be scewed while still being more fairly randomized than most other big sports.
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I don't know if it's just my hype levels, but I'm having a feeling that Maru is just going to *smash* his group and go 5-0.
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EPT
