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DHM Fall Finals - RO16 Group A Preview (2021)

Forum Index > SC2 General
11 CommentsPost a Reply

DHM Fall Finals - RO16 Group A Preview (2021)

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
September 7th, 2021 06:16 GMT

DreamHack Masters: Fall 2021 - Season Finals

By Wax

We begin with one of the more even RO16 groups we've seen in DHM Season Finals, where you could plausibly predict any combination of two players to advance to the playoffs. With three Protosses involved in equation, the ability to appease the coinflip gods account for the variables of PvP will be a key factor in this group.

DreamHack Masters Fall


Group A Preview: Neeb, PartinG, HeroMarine, sOs

Match time: Tuesday, Sep 07 2:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

The scheduling of this group hasn't done PartinG any favors, as he will be playing barely 24 hours after competing in GSL Code S. PartinG did look impressive as he advanced from his GSL group in first place (beating Bunny and ByuN), but it was conspicuous that there wasn't a single Protoss player he had to prepare for. PartinG certainly has strong PvP fundamentals—his #5 Aligulac.com PvP rank is the highest among the players in the group, and he defeated both Trap and Zoun in his previous GSL run. However, given the unpredictable nature of PvP, it would hardly be surprising to see him get caught flat-footed by more well-prepared opponents.

Things could get particularly dicey when PartinG faces his first opponent in Neeb. The 3-time consecutive North American champ hasn't played a PvP against a Korean player in over six months, last engaging in such a match back at IEM Katowice 2021. Sure, there are plenty of relevant tournament VOD's for either PartinG or Neeb to peruse, but it's hard to tell exactly what level someone else is at without actually facing them in a match. While Neeb's overall resume forces us to respect him as a savvy international tournament player, he's actually fared rather poorly in 2021, failing to advance a round in three such events. Yet, it would be foolish for anyone to let their guard down against him, lest Neeb use this tournament as a springboard for an international comeback.

Our third Protoss participant is sOs, who enters Group A as its wild card. The Protoss legend has been stuck with that designation for several years after falling out of serious title contention, and sometimes it can feel like we're just saying it out of respect—not because he's an actual threat to upset anyone. However, every now and then he'll do something like reach the IEM Katowice playoffs or help eliminate Maru from the GSL, showing us that he's far from being dead and done. Alas, sOs' recent GSL group performance probably had his haters rushing to get their shovels, as he lost two series to Dream where his micro looked terribly off. While form doesn't necessarily translate 100% across match-ups, one has to question if sOs can show up in good enough shape to escape this group.

HeroMarine is the odd man out in Group A; the lone Terran in a sea of Protosses. While Terran doomers would say that he's walking into a certain deathtrap, the statistics make it hard to tell exactly who is locked in with who. Consider this: HeroMarine is currently on a ludicrous 19-match winning streak in PvT (44W–6L in maps), and is second place in the Aligulac.com TvP rankings. On the other hand, Big Gabe is exactly the kind of player that messes with Aligulac's formula—he plays almost exclusively in one region, and plays the majority of his games in lower-stakes competitions. The fact that he's rated higher than Maru indicates that something is definitely out of whack. But exactly HOW out of whack? Even if we reject the notion that HeroMarine is the 2nd best TvP player in the world, he's clearly still some measure of excellent. At the very least, I'd surmise that he stands a strong, fighting chance to get out of this group and reach his second straight DHM playoffs.

Predictions: Despite PartinG's tight slate of games, I still think he'll find his way out of the group. His PvP is what took him to the Code S semifinals last season, and I think he has a high enough base level to win these matches on short notice. I'm going to pick HeroMarine to advance alongside PartinG, even though I think his TvP record is somewhat inflated. PartinG is the only player who strikes me as a strong favorite against HeroMarine, and the match-ups have worked out so that they can only face each other once. In a tight race between HeroMarine, sOs, and Neeb for second place, I think Big Gabe should be able to carry the day.

PartinG > Neeb
HeroMarine > sOs
Parting > HeroMarine
Neeb > sOs
HeroMarine > Neeb

PartinG and HeroMarine to advance




Writer: Wax
Photos: DreamHack
Statistics: Liquipedia

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TL+ Member
dbRic1203
Profile Joined July 2019
Germany2655 Posts
September 07 2021 07:01 GMT
#2
Great writeup!
The Storytelling sounds very reasonable, I could absolutly see this happening

But this is the TL.net prediction, so I ll pick Neeb and SOS to advance
MaxPax
Edpayasugo
Profile Joined April 2013
United Kingdom2214 Posts
September 07 2021 07:41 GMT
#3
Rooting for Neeb!
FlaSh MMA INnoVation FanTaSy MKP TY Ryung | soO Dark Rogue | HuK PartinG Stork State
tigera6
Profile Joined March 2021
3348 Posts
September 07 2021 08:00 GMT
#4
Funny enough, I think sOs style of "mud wrestling" might work well against Heromarine, who prefers to do many 2-bases or 3-bases all-in rather than long macro game in PvT. And sOs also have a decent PvP gameplay, where he beat Zoun and Creator before. So my prefection is sOs will make the 1st place, with HM edging out the other 2 Protoss.
Poopi
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France12790 Posts
September 07 2021 08:16 GMT
#5
The problem with HeroMarine is that he sometimes struggle in cross server matches, so hopefully he still plays close to his level! I doubt sOs will be strong either in a cross server setting, since he almost never plays online cups, so he should not be that accustomed to it...
On the other hand, Neeb might have a shot against either protoss, but I doubt he can beat HM, who seems to have his number since a long time now.
All in all, HeroMarine should beat sOs/Neeb but might lose to PartinG, and should be careful about rematch curse.
Looking forward to that group for sure
WriterMaru
Crocolisk Dundee
Profile Blog Joined October 2015
870 Posts
September 07 2021 08:40 GMT
#6
Go go Gabe!
Stopped watching ESL content in 2022 when the company was acquired by Savvy Gaming Group. Also object to sponsorships by the U.S. Air Force. Thanks for the lively discussions about sportswashing. StarCraft II is not for me anymore.
ZombieGrub
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
United States695 Posts
September 07 2021 09:41 GMT
#7
I feel like some of Heromarine's chances can be tied into his first match performance. Feels like he's great when on a roll but gets discouraged with a series lost which could snowball.

Thanks for the article!
Commentator"Defeat is the acceptance of my own laziness." - SlayerS_'Boxer'
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4906 Posts
September 07 2021 11:25 GMT
#8
I will go for a full toss win. Either if its sOs or Neeb alongside PartinG I am not sure.
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
SpecKROELLchen
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany151 Posts
September 07 2021 11:38 GMT
#9
Great, thx for the preview
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada8989 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-09-07 11:53:38
September 07 2021 11:52 GMT
#10
Oh wow this is today! I had completely missed it, kind of wild how it run almost concurrently with the GSL round of 8 of the next season.

If there was ever a group for Heromarine to show up vs Koreans this would be it.
Writerhttp://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
starvingbox
Profile Joined August 2020
United States44 Posts
September 07 2021 15:48 GMT
#11
you're a legend, Wax. These are great!
starvingbox
Profile Joined August 2020
United States44 Posts
September 07 2021 15:48 GMT
#12
Additional thought - could we get ESL to tweet these out? Do you have a tie-in to Heyoka or whoever managed ESL Sc2 twitter? We need more eyes on these.
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