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Code S RO8 Preview: TY vs DRG, Stats vs INnoVation

Forum Index > SC2 General
16 CommentsPost a Reply

Code S RO8 Preview: TY vs DRG, Stats vs INnoVation

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
October 13th, 2020 16:58 GMT

2020 GSL Code S Season 3 - Quarterfinals

Day 1 start time: Wednesday, Oct 14 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

[image loading]

More info: GSL Code S Season 3 on Liquipedia


Quarterfinal #1: TY vs DongRaeGu

by Wax

There's no such thing as an 'objectively' correct player to cheer for in any given match, but DongRaeGu comes damn close. The man from Busan has been the biggest success story among players returning to StarCraft II after completing their military service, reaching the semifinals in Code S Season 2, and then proving it was no fluke by returning to the playoffs in the present season. That kind of success doesn't just affect the individual—in a recent interview, soO pointed out DongRaeGu as someone who is inspiring him to try and return to SC2 after he completes his own military service. So, unless you're rooting for the collapse of the Korean scene (which I wouldn't begrudge some foreigner fans after the beating they took from 2010 to 2017), I imagine you're all taking DongRaeGu as your 'heart' pick to win this series.

As for the 'brain' pick... that's a more complicated story. DongRaeGu faces TY, the champion of 2020's Code S Season One, a semifinalist in Season Two, and the #2 player in the ESL Pro Tour Korea rankings. While TY has been relatively mediocre in non-Code S tournaments—achieving top 8 in TSL5, top 8 in DreamHack Summer & Fall, top 16 in the DouYu Cup, and top 4 in King of Battles—he's really made the AfreecaTV studio his home stadium in 2020. TY has been absolutely masterful at masking his strategies and creating uncertainty in his opponent's minds, playing both devious all-ins and audaciously greedy macro builds out of what look to be the same opener. If insane multi-tasking and late-game theorycraft were once TY's defining traits (especially during his breakout 2017 season), he's somehow made Hellion-drops his calling card in 2020.

On paper, this quarterfinal looks to be the classic battle between the steadfast macro player and the cunning strategist. DongRaeGu has been fantastic in macro ZvT games in the last two seasons of Code S, taking down INnoVation 3-0 and recording an aggregate 4-1 score against Cure. Typically the logic of "I was good at this once before, so I can be good at it again" doesn't work out in StarCraft II, but DongRaeGu's legendary Muta-Ling-Bane play from Wings of Liberty seems to have carried over into Legacy of the Void (let's forget about his HotS stint).

One could argue that TY is a different beast from INnoVation and Cure, and that DongRaeGu has yet to prove himself against a true master of GSL preparation™. While there's some merit to that viewpoint, there's also a case to be made that DongRaeGu can take TY's best punch and still prevail. Against Cure in the RO16, DongRaeGu played out most of his games with an economic disadvantage (due to negligent early-game defense on his part or just good harassment from Cure), but still came back to win his games on the back of his expertise with Muta-Ling-Bane. Up until last weekend, I had chalked this up to Cure being in an awful TvZ slump, rather than DongRaeGu being an elite ZvT player. But, then, Cure went off and 3-0'd Serral in King of Battles, while INnoVation defeated Rogue and Dark to help eliminate them Code S, leading me to ask myself an unexpected question: 'Wait, is DongRaeGu the best ZvT player in Korea?'

Looking at the statistics, DongRaeGu's ZvT is in the 'good-but-not-great' range with a 67.95% win-rate (53W - 25L) since the start of Code S Season 2. But competitive records are usually a lagging indicator behind actual current form, and if DongRaeGu can take out TY here, I think we could rightfully crown him as Korea's ZvT king.

TY has also played some notable ZvT series as of late, winning BO5's against RagnaroK and Rogue in King of Battles. While I don't know if TY gave that tournament the full GSL preparation treatment (he recycled a build between rounds, *gasp*), it was still a pretty good reminder of what a pain in the ass he is to play against. In a 3-1 victory against Rogue, TY showed early-game oriented builds on the first two maps (Hellion-Liberator harassment, and a super-fast Hellbat-Marine all-in), setting up the greedy, triple-CC-before-Starport builds he used to close the series out. The player cams summarized the match perfectly: Rogue slammed his fist down in frustration before his final GG, while TY couldn't help but flash a smug, Creep-eating grin.

Interestingly enough, the statistics aren't very flattering for TY, as he's recorded a sub-50% map win-rate (24W - 26L) since the beginning of Code S Season 2. I do think there's a caveat when comparing DRG and TY's records, however, as all-competition stats tend to favor strong macro players like DongRaeGu, while preparation-oriented players like TY don't fare as well in the grind of online competition.

I should note that it's not like TY is invulnerable in the GSL, or else he would have two championships on the year. In last season's semifinals, Stats demonstrated the PvT version of what DongRaeGu will hope to do on Wednesday: absorb all of TY's early-game tactics and win anyway. Even when Stats got off to a poor start (due his own failed gambits or successful strats from TY), he was still able to outplay TY handily if he could survive to play a macro game. Of course, Stats was able to pull that off because he's unquestionably a top two PvT player in Korea. Is DongRaeGu equally good at ZvT?

As someone who has a conservative approach to predicting matches, I tend to follow the philosophy of never predicting something to happen for the first time. While DongRaeGu has defeated a championship tier Terran in a Code S BO5 this year, he hasn't done it against a Terran who can really take advantage of GSL preparation like TY. On the other hand, TY has been consistently excellent in GSL-style BO5+ matches this year. Thus, my 'brain' pick is TY to win in a close series, while my 'heart' pick is for DongRaeGu to triumph and keep SC2 dreams alive for post-military players.

Prediction: TY 3 - 2 DongRaeGu

Quarterfinal #2: INnoVation vs Stats

by Orlok

What's up with INnoVation? Is he just bad against Protoss? Those are questions that need answering ahead of his match against Stats, the steady co-captain at the helm of the Protoss ship.

INnoVation is 1-2 against Protoss in this season of Code S, losing to Trap and Zoun in both cheesy games and macro games (he beat Hurricane). He recently opted out of the ace match in the GTC Fall grand finals, supposedly because was worried he might lose to Zoun again. Yes, Zoun. He's given voice to how TvP is very tough these days in his interviews, and even if he is prone to complaining about imbalance, it's coming across more convincing than usual.

Taking all that into account, one could easily come the conclusion that yes, INnoVation is indeed bad against Protoss, and he's as good as dead against a PvT master like Stats. On the other hand, a look at his overall TvP stats on the year tells us a more complicated story. Consider his 2020 head-to-head stats against some of the Protosses who reached Code S:

Astrea: 5-1
Creator: 5-0
Dear: 0-2
PartinG: 5-6
Patience: 7-3
Prince: 2-0
Hurricane: 7-3
sOs: 3-1
Trap: 6-6
Zest: 15-8
Zoun: 2-4

Hey, that doesn't look too bad, even if it's not stellar. You could argue that even if INnoVation looks shaky right now, it's nothing that can't be explained away with normal variance/fluctuations in form. The bigger picture of INnoVation's TvP is that he's still a player, who at worst, can fight evenly with the top players in the world. Then again...

vs Stats: 1-5

If there's anyone who's owned INnoVation all year, it's Stats. Their latest clash, a 4-2 victory for Stats in Alpha X Series Special back in September, saw Stats only lose when his early gambits failed (a Blink all-in and a DT drop), and generally stroll to victory whenever he got to play anything resembling a 'normal' macro game.

How does one square all that long-term, short-term, individual match-up, and overall match-up information? INnoVation has been solid this year, and it’s not hyperbole to still call him a perennial title contender. But in the case of this match, we're going to swallow the recency bias imbalance pill (patent pending) and say INnoVation has met his match. After surviving the RO16 group of death, INnoVation said he would prepare some special strategies for this clash with Stats. He'd better make good on that statement if he's to have a shot at contending for another GSL title.

*****

It’s been an eventful year for Stats. He joined Afreeca Freecs, made the Code S finals for the first time in two years, got slammed by Rogue in the finals, and survived a tough RO16 group despite ailing with a severe fever in the week prior. Though last season's campaign ended in a painful defeat, he now has a golden opportunity to redeem himself and go out in a blaze of glory.

Those in the 1992 club all face the same problem, namely that military service is now becoming an actual legal problem that can't be put off any longer. In the face of that murky yet inevitable end (the exact date of enlistment can remain unclear for a while), players seem to recognize the value of the career they might have once taken for granted. Stats' Season Two surge was proof of that, but his weakness in the PvZ match-up (at a paltry 59% map win-rate in 2020) doomed him right at the cusp of victory. Considering that we're not even sure how many more chances we'll have to see Stats in major SC2 tournaments, it was heartbreaking to see his heroic run end in tragedy.

Perhaps the StarCraft II gods saw Stats, pitied his effort, and decided to send him a blessing. Moreover, Rogue invited the gods of death with his choices during RO16 group selection, and the reaper came eagerly came knocking at his door. Dark was the collateral damage of Rogue's hubris, and now we enter a Code S playoffs where we're missing the top two ZvP players in Korea. In contrast to Stats' PvZ, his PvP and PvT have looked excellent. In effect, the two biggest obstacles to him winning a title have already been eliminated.

Zerg players DRG and Armani lie in wait, but in all fairness, neither player is on the same level as Rogue and Dark in the ZvP match-up. They’re not even guaranteed to advance in the quarterfinals either, with TY and Zest blocking their way. Of course, the Protoss and Terran players Stats will have to face are all top-tier, but he should be much happier to face them than the deadly dead duo of Zergs from Group D. Throw in Stats' head-to-head advantage against INnoVation, and this really starting to look like his season of destiny.

Prediction: Stats 3 - 1 INnoVation




Credits and acknowledgements

Writers: Orlok and Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Records and Statistics: Aligulac.com and Liquipedia

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TL+ Member
S19Q9A5
Profile Joined July 2018
14 Posts
October 13 2020 17:24 GMT
#2
Even as an old and dedicated fan of Machine, I don't see him as a winner against Stats with current state of mind and TvP balance. My heart with Inno, but seems like Covid theme doesnt make him think only about sc2, how was it at the beginning of the year. This is sad, but what can I do? There's no more thoughts about proxy Battlecruiser against Maru or proxy base against Zest. Only oscillating Innovation, i guess? :'(
Swisslink
Profile Joined March 2011
2952 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-13 17:45:04
October 13 2020 17:44 GMT
#3
Go, DRG, prove the writer wrong! After the most recent ZvT results over different tournaments, I‘m even more impressed by his performance vs INnoVation and Cure recently. Of course TY is a different kind of player, but DRG made it look quite easy and was able to play his style no matter what the opponent did. And in all honesty, I‘m still not sure how he did that vs. those opponents.

... and of course it‘d be awesome for a returning player to put a crown on his recent achievements. Winning vs. TY would be a good step in this direction.
THERIDDLER
Profile Joined July 2014
Canada116 Posts
October 13 2020 18:19 GMT
#4
Is every terran just bad against protoss?
Please don't fricken hack, its just a game.
sneakyfox
Profile Joined January 2017
8216 Posts
October 13 2020 18:30 GMT
#5
insane multi-tasking and late-game theorycraft were once TY's defining traits (especially during his breakout 2017 season)


Oh how I miss those days. If only we could get some proper Terran lategame back (Blizzard), maybe TY could once again show us the beauty of full-fledged multi-task based tech-heavy Terran lategame. One can dream.
"I saw what sneakyfox wrote on TL.net and it made me furious" - PartinG
JJH777
Profile Joined January 2011
United States4400 Posts
October 13 2020 20:56 GMT
#6
On October 14 2020 03:30 sneakyfox wrote:
Show nested quote +
insane multi-tasking and late-game theorycraft were once TY's defining traits (especially during his breakout 2017 season)


Oh how I miss those days. If only we could get some proper Terran lategame back (Blizzard), maybe TY could once again show us the beauty of full-fledged multi-task based tech-heavy Terran lategame. One can dream.


Maru can still make it work from time to time.
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4906 Posts
October 13 2020 21:47 GMT
#7
DRG Stats for me, I never appreciate TY as a stellar player and I think on a bo5+ style he is not as good as people thinks
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13973 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-13 21:52:35
October 13 2020 21:50 GMT
#8
Wouldn't be a Wax article without him predicting DRG loses

Also a bit surprised he didn't mention DRG beating TY in season 2.

It seems as though the big question is can TY's harass out do Cure's/can he capitalize on it better. Remains a close call from what I can tell.

Stats by all measure can and possible should win the GSL off of PvT alone from here on out...even if DRG wins v TY, Stats should be favored there as well.
Kaina + Drones Linkcro Summon Cupsie Yummy Way
washikie
Profile Joined February 2011
United States752 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-13 23:23:25
October 13 2020 23:22 GMT
#9
I’m betting Ty beats DRG despite DRG’s strong zvt. My reasoning is that so far most terrans have played into his game his muta ling bane looks incredible but I think TY will use his strong series planing to make sure they never play a straight up bio vs ling bane Muta macro game I expect to see mech and proxy games. I dont see drg beating ty when he is out of his element and forced into a different unit composition and kind of game.
"when life gives Hero lemons he makes carriers" -Artosis
dysenterymd
Profile Joined January 2019
1199 Posts
October 14 2020 02:09 GMT
#10
Hoping Inno pulls the upset but Stats should win pretty easily. TY will lose if he plays DRG's game, for his sake I hope he has a plan to throw DRG off.

Sad because I like everyone on this side of the bracket... but at least one of them will be in the finals.
Serral | Inno | sOs | soO | Has | Classic
ThunderJunk
Profile Joined December 2015
United States677 Posts
October 14 2020 03:23 GMT
#11
I actually think DRG has a good shot at pulling the upset against TY. The map pool is still from the previous season, and the newest TvZ strats have been showcased (to great effect) by Cure in the King Of Battles tournament - so I figure DRG has a decent strategic edge, especially since TY doesn't have the same follow-through potential that Cure has in the matchup (just my opinion).

As much as Rogue and Dark are the most proven zergs in the Korean scene, DRG has a midgame alacrity that they don't really have (Rogue has it a bit more than Dark), and I think TY will struggle to shut him down in the midgame. I just wonder if DRG's lategame army splitting and viper control is polished enough to carry that midgame advantage into a reliable win.

The optimist in me believes he's gotten better in the lategame. 3-1 DRG.
I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do.
Vindicare605
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States16056 Posts
October 14 2020 06:31 GMT
#12
I hate to admit it, but I'm gonna agree with pretty much everything Wax said in this article. Especially the part about DRG being my heart pick to win tonight but it's much simpler for me as to why.

DRG was my favorite Zerg by far back during his days of being on top of the SC2 scene alongside Marineking and other players of that era. Seeing him drop down and return to Code S contention in my mind validates every reason for why I was a fan of him and kept being a fan of him.
aka: KTVindicare the Geeky Bartender
Charoisaur
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany15919 Posts
October 14 2020 07:21 GMT
#13
but DongRaeGu's legendary Muta-Ling-Bane play from Wings of Liberty seems to have carried over into Legacy of the Void (let's forget about his HotS stint).

I'd like to point out that he was the first player to beat Inno's Bio mine play in HotS back when he was walking over every other Zerg player.
Many of the coolest moments in sc2 happen due to worker harassment
Terra1
Profile Joined June 2018
Philippines312 Posts
October 14 2020 08:12 GMT
#14
I'm hoping for DRG on this one. He did beat TY on a series last season. If DRG can do better than his previous season (better ZvT than he did), then he can win this.

DRG 3-2 TY

Stats as well. I want to see him lift a GSL trophy before his military service comes. I always liked Stats' plays, hence his name of Shield of Aiur fitting him. He's the guy that is recommended by players to copy his style (macro and defensive plays). He did beat TY and ByuN, who were aggressive Terrans and Maru as well. If Inno does pull some insane tricks, then Stats could be caught off guard (then again, since he can win against Zerg builds he never saw before, I believe he can do it as well vs Terran).

Stats 3-1 Inno
FabledIntegral
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States9232 Posts
October 14 2020 09:31 GMT
#15
OK I got this wrong last time I asked, but why isn't this article spoilers? I went to go watch the ro16 games from only 3 days ago but unfortunately saw this first.
gTank
Profile Joined January 2011
Austria2558 Posts
October 14 2020 12:05 GMT
#16
On October 14 2020 18:31 FabledIntegral wrote:
OK I got this wrong last time I asked, but why isn't this article spoilers? I went to go watch the ro16 games from only 3 days ago but unfortunately saw this first.


According to TL rules, it is entirely your fault for not being up to date /s.

One crossed wire, one wayward pinch of potassium chlorate, one errant twitch...and kablooie!
gpanda
Profile Joined December 2017
36 Posts
October 14 2020 13:56 GMT
#17
On October 14 2020 02:44 Swisslink wrote:
Go, DRG, prove the writer wrong! After the most recent ZvT results over different tournaments, I‘m even more impressed by his performance vs INnoVation and Cure recently. Of course TY is a different kind of player, but DRG made it look quite easy and was able to play his style no matter what the opponent did. And in all honesty, I‘m still not sure how he did that vs. those opponents.

... and of course it‘d be awesome for a returning player to put a crown on his recent achievements. Winning vs. TY would be a good step in this direction.


You are right, TY is totally a different type of player compared with INnoVation and Cure.
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