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Code S RO16 Preview: Cure, DRG, Solar, Zest

Forum Index > SC2 General
18 CommentsPost a Reply

Code S RO16 Preview: Cure, DRG, Solar, Zest

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
September 25th, 2020 17:52 GMT

2020 GSL Code S Season 3 - Round of 16

by Orlok

While we might all be looking ahead to Group D and the carnage that might ensue there, Group B looks to be extremely competitive in its own way. Whether you go by Liquibets, gambling odds, or Aligulac predictions, it's clear that these four players are extremely closely matched, and we could easily see any two advance to the playoffs.

More info: GSL Code S Season 3 on Liquipedia


Group B Preview: Cure, DongRaeGu, Solar, Zest

Start time: Friday, Sep 25 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

What comes to mind when one thinks of 2020 Cure? Does one consider him the great success story of the year, a player who managed to break his shackles of mediocrity and reach the finals of the GSL? Or does one consider him a bittersweet tale, a player who was on the cusp of greatness, but fell terribly short at the final hurdle?

Whatever image pops up, we can at least say Cure is an excellent player who has shown incredible dedication to his craft. Sure, watching someone grind away in the GSL group stages isn’t enthralling, but there’s no denying the outcome. And sure, his impact is a tad mitigated due to just how long he’s been playing and his still existing image of mediocrity, but the jump has been impressive nonetheless.

However, once you make the leap and attain success, you run into the new problem of how to sustain it. After his finals run in Season 1, Cure suffered a disappointing RO16 elimination in Season 2. While it was understandable given that he faced Stats and Zest, it was a momentum killer nonetheless. This season, Cure only advanced from the RO24 in second place in his group, and was vocal about how he's struggling in TvZ and TvP at the moment. Even his vaunted online statistics have come back down to earth since his loss to TY in the Season 1 finals. This group could be an important turning point for Cure: Can he work through his issues, get over the hump, and return to the playoffs? Or will he keep letting mediocrity creep back up on him?

Like Cure, DongRaeGu is another player who broke out in 2020. Only in his case it was more of a 're-break out.' Last season, the 2012 Code S Season 1 champion made the deepest run of any military service 'returner' yet, climbing all the way to the RO4. But, with all due respect to DRG, we have to question whether or not that miracle run will lead to sustained success.

Given the prior results for 'returners' and the mechanical demands of StarCraft II, old age and time off from the game have to factor heavily into anyone's predictions. DongRaeGu has made the most headway in shattering this framework, besting Code S regulars like Dear, sOs, Special and even championship favorite INnoVation to make it to the semi-finals. last season. Rogue blew DRG to smithereens in the semis, but his sudden ascent was fascinating as it had been totally unforeseen. Is this a sustainable level of play for DongRaeGu? His match stats since losing to Rogue suggest perhaps not, as he's hovering around a 63% win-rate since then. But, as we always say, Code S is a different stage from any other competition, and maybe DongRaeGu will prove to be a better big-match player than his three opponents.

Solar comes into this group with arguably the most to prove, as his last quarterfinals appearance in Code S was three years ago. While Solar has been a strong, playoff caliber player in just about every other competition (even getting to the medal stand on a few occasions), Solar must be irked by his dreadful run in GSL Code S.

No one showed as much early promise as Solar during the beginning of the LotV era, and while his peak bestowed a SSL championship with a smattering of high place finishes, a meaningful Code S run has always eluded him. And, without those precious WCS Korea points from Code S, it's caused him to narrowly miss out on BlizzCon on a few occasions. Solar's career doesn’t necessarily have blemishes, but it will always lack a sense of completion without a Code S win, the highest accolade the Korean scene will always offer. This group isn’t the easiest, and it looks a lot like past groups where Solar gets out-strategized while trying to play macro. Still, I'll tip my hat to Solar to advance here. He recently got engaged, and if we can't send him a wedding gift, then at least we can pick him to reach the playoffs. Let's just hope this doesn't end up being a case of the dreaded TL.net curse.

We close out the group with Zest. Ahhh, Zest. TL once detailed him as the great Protoss enigma, a player with a worrying lack of small-scale precision and finesse, but in possession of the big-picture vision and decision-making to win anyway. He may never bulls*** out a victory against Zerg through Force-Field use like PartinG, but he probably didn't have to since he was annihilating the Drone line with a Zealot warp-in all the while.

That stylistic element is still at the forefront of his play, and as ever leads to perplexing results. No one expected him to beat Serral at IEM, but beat him he did (although one could argue Serral overthinking Protoss all-ins had SOME part to play in his loss). Then he gets completely outclassed by Rogue in four straight games, negating the wow factor of his win over Serral and again making his whole run frustrating to understand. Just what is his current ceiling? What is his floor? Are his results a product of acing the coin flip consecutive times, or more so his opponents inability to deal with all ins? All these questions have not been answered, and are probably unlikely to be answered due to just how Zest plays. All we know is that Zest continues to plod on, and remains a constant within Code S. He’s similar to DRG here, in the fact that he’s someone you can both expect to win or lose given the circumstances. He doesn’t have mad momentum coming into this match, but that’s never been a large factor for him; the form he shows up in the studio is all that matters.

Predictions

All groups this time around (apart from group A, sorry) have a multitude of plausible outcomes given just how close the players are in terms of what they can show and what they probably will show. Cure is the closest to being the favorite in this group, but if he slips up DRG, Solar and Zest can certainly take advantage of that opening. I’ll actually just flip a coin and put some stock into Solar’s recent happy engagement. It truly is a coin flip outcome for the coin flip group.

Cure 2:1 DRG
Solar 2:1 Zest
Cure 1:2 Solar
DRG 2:1 Zest
Cure 2:1 DRG

Solar and Cure advance.




Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Orlok
Images: AfreecaTV
Records and Statistics: Aligulac.com and Liquipedia

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TL+ Member
dUTtrOACh
Profile Joined December 2010
Canada2316 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-28 15:01:16
September 25 2020 18:18 GMT
#2
Feeling DRG(1), Cure(2). Gotta keep the faith in the legend of the Dong.

EDIT: The Dongest of SC2 is Dong Rae Gu. The Dongest of BW is Jaedong. Gratz to Zest, though. That was some heroic shit. Just when you think Zest has been figured out, he figures out a way to crush face and once again threatens top four.
twitch.tv/duttroach
Serimek
Profile Joined August 2011
France2216 Posts
September 25 2020 18:26 GMT
#3
On September 26 2020 03:18 dUTtrOACh wrote:
Feeling DRG(1), Cure(2). Gotta keep the faith in the legend of the Dong.


JD, DRG, who's the dongest?
SC2 is the best game to watch and was the best to play before I grew old and slow...
sneakyfox
Profile Joined January 2017
7329 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-25 18:40:51
September 25 2020 18:36 GMT
#4
Nice preview. Cure finishing second would certainly be good for TY, but yeah it's a massive coinflip. Expect this group to finally shake the LB standings up.

Btw interesting that Ej can still participate in LB
"I saw what sneakyfox wrote on TL.net and it made me furious" - PartinG
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
53856 Posts
September 25 2020 18:40 GMT
#5
I don't trust any of these players.
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13339 Posts
September 25 2020 20:04 GMT
#6
I dont know what makes less sense, predicting drg loses to terran or that he beats zest.
Solar, Zest
Solemn Strike FTW l SC2 Liquibet Season 17 Winner l I am beyond imagination, succumb to madness.
JJH777
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3561 Posts
September 25 2020 20:55 GMT
#7
Either both Zergs or Zest and a Zerg. Cure has looked lost in TvZ lately imo.
starkiller123
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3226 Posts
September 25 2020 21:01 GMT
#8
this is what I liquibet for the group, should be a pretty competitive group but you never know with GSL these days
Calliope
Profile Joined July 2018
200 Posts
September 25 2020 21:33 GMT
#9
On September 26 2020 05:55 JJH777 wrote:
Either both Zergs or Zest and a Zerg. Cure has looked lost in TvZ lately imo.


I agree, ZZ or Z Zest. DRG 3-0'd Inno last time.
Clément 화이팅
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16508 Posts
September 25 2020 21:39 GMT
#10
Even if Solar making it through looks plausible on paper, I don't think I could bring myself to bet on Solar making it to a GSL Ro8.
https://tl.net/forum/starcraft-2/563903-2020-season-2-ladder-map-statistics-retrospective
SootShade
Profile Joined October 2018
25 Posts
September 25 2020 23:43 GMT
#11
To me Solar is definitely the most reliable pick to advance here. DRG fits in for the other slot because he's yet to disappoint me as much as the other two do on the regular.
SharkStarcraft
Profile Joined April 2011
Austria1808 Posts
September 26 2020 01:22 GMT
#12
DRG>Cure
Solar>Zest
Solar>DRG
Zest>Cure
DRG>Zest

you heard it here first
Cogito, ergo Toss
RKC
Profile Joined June 2012
1894 Posts
September 26 2020 01:25 GMT
#13
Best chance for Solar to win GSL!

If Zero can win ASL, so can Solar!
gg no re thx
gpanda
Profile Joined December 2017
33 Posts
September 26 2020 03:25 GMT
#14
Zest is overlooked so much.
RKC
Profile Joined June 2012
1894 Posts
September 26 2020 04:16 GMT
#15
On September 26 2020 12:25 gpanda wrote:
Zest is overlooked so much.


Zest will definitely advance (taking out of Cure).

His role is to take out top Terrans to pave the way to yet another Zerg championship (TY, Inno, Maru).

All part of the Overmind's plan.
gg no re thx
freelifeffs
Profile Joined April 2018
68 Posts
September 26 2020 12:16 GMT
#16
everyone sleep on zest as always. zest is best get that into your thick skulls.
Dave4
Profile Joined August 2018
489 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-26 18:21:30
September 26 2020 13:01 GMT
#17
+ Show Spoiler +
Author anti-picked this group. All 5 matches opposite result.


User was warned for this post
Freeborn
Profile Joined July 2010
Germany402 Posts
September 26 2020 17:28 GMT
#18
Predictions so bad :D
Mettis
Profile Joined June 2019
84 Posts
September 27 2020 10:13 GMT
#19
Man those predictions
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