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GTC Fall: Week 5 Recap & Week 6 Preview

Forum Index > SC2 General
3 CommentsPost a Reply

GTC Fall: Week 5 Recap & Week 6 Preview

Text byTheOneAboveU
September 20th, 2020 16:42 GMT
Week 5 Recap
Maru actually had to play

Week 6 Preview
KZ vs BSG in finals rematch

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

Gold Series Team Championship:
2020 Fall Season

by: TheOneAboveU

Yet again, the GTC proved that even the biggest underdogs can put up a great fight, and any match can come down to a nail-biting conclusion.

Jin Air Green Wings suffered another brush with disaster, having to send out JAGW.Maru for the first time this season to avoid an ace match loss against Team GP. In a similar vein, reigning champs Dragon Phoenix Gaming were taken to the limit by Alpha X, with DPG.Dark needing to pull double duty in an unexpected ace match. On the other hand, KaiZi Gaming lived up to their reputation as title contenders, destroying Team LP in a clean 6-0 sweep.

While the five playoff teams seem to be virtually set with two weeks left to play in the regular season, there's still plenty of potential for movement within the top five of the standings. That's why week 6 will be a crucial week, as the projected playoff teams will face off against each other. A one round advantage is a huge deal in the GTC "gauntlet" playoff format, and none of these teams can afford to give an edge away.

Week 5 Recap

[image loading]
Points are awarded as follows:
  • 3 points for a 'normal' victory in a series that does not require an ace match
  • 2 points for a victory in a series that requires an ace-match
  • 1 point for a loss in a series that requires an ace-match
  • 0 points for a loss in a series that does not require an ace match


Team LP 0 - 6 KaiZi Gaming
Watch VOD




KaiZi Gaming continue to uphold a streak of 6-0 victories over Team LP in the GTC, making this their third clean sweep of that particular team in a row, all of them achieved with different line-ups. The first map saw LP.Patience attempti to break KZ.Solar with Adept-Phoenix, but the Zerg withstood the pressure and managed to transition into Hydras just fine, defeating the Protoss before Disruptors could turn the tide. The series continued in a spicy manner, with Patience trying to emulate a build which had brought his Chinese team mate LP.Jieshi a map win over JAGW.Rogue in the previous week, but Solar proved to be a bit more cheese-resistant than his Zerg colleague, managing a calm defense.

Not exactly achieving the debut for his new team he wished for, LP.Hurricane was overwhelmed by KZ.TIME's two-pronged aggression on Golden Wall, being unable to cope with the Terran's offense while also failing to do substantial counter-damage—partially due to getting his Blink delayed. The second map started slightly better for the Protoss, Oracles did some damage to TIME's economy, but Hurricane couldn't handle the later bio-push with just Gateway units.

LP.Jieshi and his notorious four proxied Gateways made a return against KZ.INnoVation, but instead of executing a rush with his proxy Gates, the Chinese Protoss used them simply as hidden production capability. He even managed to score some hits on Inno's economy with a rag-tag Zealot group, but the Terran hit back with a devastating Widow Mine drop and the greatest weapon in his arsenal: having built more units than his opponent. Though we can't confirm it, Jieshi was probably replaced by an impostor in the second game, since there were no hidden buildings on the map. Instead, the LP player showed a very good attempt at a macro game against the Machine, but ultimately a drawn-out battle in the center of Deathaura cost Jieshi his expensive tech units, allowing INnoVation's forces to overwhelm him as they pressed on—still, this was the best LP-performance of the day.


Invictus Gaming 2 - 4 Brave Star Gaming
Watch VOD



The end result of this series wasn't a surprise, but one can't help but think that Invictus Gaming could have at least stolen a point here by forcing ace match.

Unfortunately, iG.XY didn't play as carefully as he should have against BSG.Scarlett (now in Canada) in the opening match, losing to rather predictable Roach-Ravager-Queen attack while his army was out clearing Creep. XY was at least able to win out on Eternal Empire, using Battle Cruisers and Hellbats to batter down the Zerg player's defenses and cripple her economy before the mech transition ended the game. A well-deserved point for the Chinese Terran, which could have been two with a bit more forward-thinking.

Unfortunately for Invictus Gaming, iG.XiGua could not follow up on his colleague's success, facing BSG.Dream in an uneven match-up. Golden Wall featured a Nydus attack from two bases, which the Terran only narrowly defended after taking appalling losses. But with the Zerg unable to finish the game outright, Dream managed to climb back into it, eventually managing to overwhelm XiGua's low-eco Swarm Hosts with a superior Terran army. A proxy 2-Rax bunker rush sealed the deal on Ice and Chrome, bringing BSG to match point.

With everything depending on the PvP, iG.MacSed and BSG.Cyan fought with all their might, with MacSed winning game one on Ever Dream after a brutal back-and-forth slug-match between Gateway armies. Ice and Chrome saw the Invictus Gaming player reach for the stars again, as the macro game reached a stalemate and he prepared the Golden Armada to launch once more. Cyan countered with his own fleet and retained the better army movement throughout the match, denying MacSed vital bases while keeping his own economy growing. After a base trade, which Cyan easily won due to his higher number of expansions all over the map, and just over 35 minutes of game time, Brave Star Gaming stood victorious, securing three critical points.


Team GP 3 - 4 Jin Air Green Wings
Watch VOD




The Monday games may have been relatively predictable, but the matches on Tuesday more than made up for it.

It all started with underdogs Team GP taking Jin Air Green Wings to their third ace match of the season. JAGW.Rex brought his team into the lead after only four minutes, flooding GP.GogojOey's base with Speedlings before he could get his Roaches going. The GP player did not lose hope, though, and managed to secure his first map win of the season by taking his opponent down in an action-packed Roach-Ravager macro game on Pillars of Gold.

The series continued with JAGW.Rogue dismantling GP.NaTuRal on Golden Wall in the manner you'd expect from a highly decorated player like the Jin Air Zerg, with pretty much everything going wrong for the Terran. But it wouldn't be the GTC without some underdog magic, and it wouldn't be Rogue if he didn't randomly drop a map that he had no business losing. The next act of that drama played itself out on Eternal Empire, with NaTuRal choosing mech as his weapon, while Rogue opted for Ling-Bane-Muta. Both players did reasonable damage to each other in a game of thrust-and-parry, the nature of the harassment changing as Rogue transitioned into Lurker-Viper and added Nydus Worms to his infrastructure, while the Terran succeeded in using Thor drops and Hellbat run-bys. While NaTuRal seemed to run into a brick wall with every move in the previous game, he certainly knew his way around Eternal Empire with mech, leading to many efficient engagements for himself and eventually Rogue's starvation. Rogue eventually had to tap out after almost 30 minutes—what a turn-around in NaTuRal's debut!

Suddenly, things were very open ended for both teams, as GP.Bomber and JAGW.Creator were easily capable of beating each other. Things started out well for the Protoss, who contained Bomber on two bases and expanded, but his dubious army movement and decision making struck again. Hesitatingly following Bomber into a base race situation after leaving his home undefended, Creator wasted precious seconds under the pressure and gave Bomber a head-start, which the veteran did not squander. Aiming for a quick win on Golden Wall, the Terran opted for a creative Thor-Marine-SCV attack, but the Jin Air Protoss kept his cool his time, managing to pull off a successful defense and keeping his team alive.

While GP sent their most experienced player Bomber out for the ace match, Jin Air felt compelled to call for their ultimate weapon. JAGW.Maru was being fielded for the very first time this season (we can only imagine his annoyance at having to play before the playoffs even started). Bomber played a solid game overall, but who could've doubted the outcome of this ace match after the opponents were announced? Maru eventually gained control of the match and dismantled the GP ace with a string of unrelenting attacks, saving his team from a very close brush with catastrophe.


Dragon Phoenix Gaming 4 - 3 Alpha X
Watch VOD




The highlight series of the week delivered what everyone wanted from it, with Dragon Phoenix Gaming narrowly defending their undefeated streak in GTC against a wonderfully dangerous underdog in Alpha X. DPG.Cure started things off against αX.Zoun with a single proxy Barracks, achieving some initial damage with Reapers. Zoun simply could not find a foothold in this match, unable to make any offense of his own work, instead staying on the receiving end of Cure's blows, which ended with the Terran destroying the Protoss player's third and breaking into his natural for the win. A more even game on Ever Dream saw Zoun strike back with full force, the Alpha X player keeping his economy intact over the duration of the match, wearing the Terran down in the war of attrition and finishing the game in style with a Carrier-switch.

Golden Wall had αX.RagnaroK take a quick gold expansion against DPG.Firefly, who answered with a fast third base at the gold minerals for himself. The Zerg saw his chance for a decisive blow before the Protoss could strengthen his defences, but his Ravager-Queen attack was narrowly held off by Firefly's Void Rays and some pretty nice micro, the Nexus surviving on red hit points. Striking back with his fleet, the Protoss sniped RagnaroK's main and forced him into another push, air power once again proving decisive—another big upset in favor of Firefly. The Golden Dragons did not yield the match point to their opponents yet, as their Zerg representative managed to take the next map by blindsiding Firefly with Mutalisks.

Some DPG fans may have relaxed at this point, thinking the series over, since DPG.Dark could never lose to αX.Nice, right? The first match fulfilled those expectations, with Dark taking some losses to Adept-Void Ray harassment (people would have probably looked at you as a madman just half a year ago, if you explained to them this was viable), but stabilizing enough to get a critical number of Corrupters out to turn the tide and crush Nice's third base and army for the win. Things got nervy for DPG fans afterwards, however, as the Taiwanese Protoss had a trump card up his sleeve: blindsiding Dark with a mass Phoenix-build, which would make RotterdaM teary eyed if he saw it. Nice did crippling damage to Dark's economy and Overlords, finishing him with a wave of Zealots and Adepts. Ace match time!

In a shocking and quite ballsy move, the Golden Dragons sent out Nice as their ace player, giving him another crack at Dark in what was now essentially a Best of 3 between the two players. Dark, however, proved to be clutch again in the deciding match, improving his overall ace record for DPG to 3-0 (2-0 this season) by managing to pull of an epic hold against Nice's strong Void Ray-Gateway push where he had to pull Drones several times. Dark actually pushed the Protoss deeper into his own base, giving Nice the possibility to warp in a Sentry and utilize a Force Field to cut off the main, but lacking gas and perhaps a bit of awareness, the Alpha X player could not execute the move, eventually getting overwhelmed by Dark's reinforcements. What an achievement this would have been for the American team and their Taiwanese player if things had gone a little bit differently! Still, it was a critical and well-deserved point for them, enabling them to stay ahead of Jin Air and BSG in the rankings. Dark, meanwhile, continues to build up his reputation as the clutchest player in the league.


Weekly MVP Award: KZ.Solar

This was an awkward week for the MVP award, as the ace-match winners JAGW.Maru and DPG.Dark didn't so much win glory as they merely saved face. And while there were some underdogs who stole maps off stronger players, it ultimately didn't result in a series win. So this week, we'll be acknowledging a player who quietly did his job, beat the crap out of a solid opponent, and contributed to an impressive win for his team.

There can be no doubt that (Wiki)Solar, with his 8-2 record so far, is a guy who delivers. Having transferred over from dying Triumphant Song Gaming, Solar has—with one or two exceptions—delivered exactly what his new team wanted from him: a consistent string of victories. While Solar's 2-0 over LP.Patience this week may not have been unexpected, it was the starting point for a convincing win for KaiZi in a week where the other title contenders struggled. Solar was one of the most consistently strong performers in previous seasons of GTC—if he's back in that form after last season's slump, then KaiZi may finally win that elusive championship.

As for notable mentions, JAGW.Maru and DPG.Dark did indeed win ace matches as mentioned above, but Maru's opponent wasn't exactly impressive, while Dark only cleaned up a mess he created in the first place (basically a -1 point performance from Dark). DPG.Firefly (who seems to become a regular in this section), αX.Nice and GP.NaTuRal deserve commendation for their successful upsets as well.

Week 6 Preview

Monday, Sep 21 11:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) MatchesBrave Star Gaming vs. KaiZi Gaming

(Wiki)Cyan < Ice and Chrome > (Wiki)Solar
(Wiki)Dream < Pillars of Gold > (Wiki)TIME
(Wiki)Scarlett < Eternal Empire > (Wiki)INnoVation
Ace: < Ever Dream >

While not really in danger of missing the playoffs, BSG would like to overtake Alpha X in the rankings and secure a better playoff spot. Likewise, KaiZi would at least like one point here to stay ahead of the pack and fortify the second place on the ranking. BSG.Cyan has been the stand-out Chinese region player this season so far alongside DPG.Firefly, showing off his strong macro abilities. Unfortunately, this style may not match up well against KZ.Solar, who is 7-1 so far in ZvP, only losing to a perfectly executed cheese from Firefly. Solar is 6-2 this year against Cyan in maps, but notably the Protoss forced a map split in the Spring season when facing the Korean, who was in a worse shape at the time than he is in now. Perhaps the time has come for Cyan to show a bit of his range and surprise Solar, otherwise Solar might be able to bring his great strength in ZvP to bear.

With KZ.TIME, BSG.Dream is facing a player he has dominated so far this year: he leads 12-5 in maps and 7-1 in series over the Chinese player, despite TIME having a much better overall TvT record and form. With their multitasking-heavy styles being kind of similar in most match-ups (though especially Dream has shown some range with mech play in the past) it's hard to say what exactly is going wrong for TIME and right for Dream in their duels—it might just be Dream's greater experience prevailing once the chaos commences. The KaiZi player has shown many times that he can match even the best Koreans in the mirror match-up, so he should have a fair shot at taking one map here at least.

In a DreamHack Masters rematch from the previous week, BSG.Scarlett and KZ.INnoVation meet yet again, likely to the enormous pleasure of their Chinese fan bases. The Korean won the two series between them with a combined 4-1 map score on even conditions—not a good sign for the Canadian Zerg, who'll have to play these games from a disadvantageous spot. Over their careers, Scarlett did manage to take series against the Machine from time to time, but this year the record has been rather one-sided in the Terran's favour. GTC is unlikely to change that, though perhaps she can catch INnoVation off his guard like she did with iG.XY in the previous week. She's unlikely to win any sort of longer encounter under these circumstances.

Prediction: Brave Star Gaming 2-4 KaiZi Gaming


Dragon Phoenix Gaming vs. Invictus Gaming

(Wiki)PartinG < Ice and Chrome > (Wiki)MacSed
(Wiki)Firefly < Pillars of Gold > (Wiki)Coffee
(Wiki)Cure < Eternal Empire > (Wiki)XY
Ace: < Ever Dream >


After two weeks of ace matches, DPG are probably looking forward to a more comfortable victory in Week 6 with Invictus Gaming being the unfortunate punching bag. Though iG.MacSed taking a map off DPG.PartinG wouldn't be crazy in the context of this season's other upsets, the Big Boy is still the huge favorite to take two wins here. Ever since first meeting in 2012, the Korean has dropped merely two maps to his Chinese opponent, retaining a superior PvP win rate in addition. Perhaps 2020 is the year of the big turnaround for MacSed, but statistically this clash is not looking good for him—perhaps his recently infamous Great Wall of Shield Batteries and Golden Armada can change the situation.

We have called DPG.Firefly a PvZ expert before, and that's not just because of a few upsets against Korean players. His historical record in PvZ is strong as well. What it also shows is that PvT is clearly his big weakness, sitting at an uninspiring 44% win rate (his recent form of 48% not being much of an improvement). His head-to-head record against iG.Coffee, the GTC's resident SCV conscription officer, is almost dead even, with Firefly leading 22-21 in maps. 2020 seems to have brought some improvement for him against this particular opponent at least; the stats for the current year giving the Protoss a lead of 11-8 in maps. It's hard to say if the DPG player just adapted better to Coffee's style, or if he has found more confidence in his PvT in general. As things stand, our two duelists are in the perfect situation for an amiable map split—the best chance for Invictus Gaming to get a point on the board in this series.

The TvTs of iG.XY against Korean Terrans—DPG.Cure amongst them—have previously highlighted that the Chinese player is incredibly good at picking the right strategy to maximize his chances of victory, but they also showed that his execution and subsequent decision making are just not solid enough to earnestly challenge such elite players. This season, he has impressed with some strong TvZ performances, and it's going to be very interesting to see him translate this strength into the mirror match-up. That said, Cure is an overwhelming favorite to take a 2-0 here, having excellent TvT historically and at the moment, as well as the knowledge from a previous encounter with XY.

Prediction: Dragon Phoenix Gaming 5-1 Invictus Gaming


Tuesday, Sep 22 11:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) Matches

Team GP vs. Team LP

(Wiki)Prince < Ice and Chrome > (Wiki)Hurricane
(Wiki)Bomber < Pillars of Gold > (Wiki)Jieshi
(Wiki)GogojOey < Eternal Empire > (Wiki)Patience
Ace: < Ever Dream >

Team LP have been virtually eliminated from playoff contention, needing to win their next two matches while BSG and Jin Air completely collapse in order to earn a spot. Meanwhile, Team GP has been fully eliminated. Still, the pride of the teams demands that they try their best until the very end—in the case of Team GP, there's the extra motivation of trying to avoid going 0-7 on the season.

GP.Prince and LP.Hurricane start us off in a PvP with many question marks attached to it. The players have never officially met in a match before, but we can definitely call Hurricane the favorite in terms of both statistics and experience: PvP is the only match-up he is doing well in at the moment and is also his historically strongest discipline. That said, Prince is always good for a surprise and with how volatile a match-up PvP is, there is no counting him out for a map win.

GP.Bomber and LP.Jieshi face off in a match that could very well become another feather in Jieshi's cap. If he manages to play like he did against KZ.INnoVation in the previous week, I can very well see him taking out Bomber in a macro game. Where BSG.Cyan and DPG.Firefly have seen more rewards for the hard work this season in the form of wins, Jieshi has also been quite impressive overall, really broadening his range of styles (or at least gaining the needed confidence to show these styles on the big stage). He'll also have some study material from Bomber's games against JAGW.Creator in the previous week, so he should have a good idea about what the Terran may bring to the table. Bomber has the greater name and fame, but I think Jieshi has a good shot to achieve a big win for his team in this match-up.

GP.GogojOey will have somewhat fond memories of his last encounter with LP.Patience, which took place during Team GP's GTC debut in the Spring season. The Zerg was the very first starter the team fielded, rewarding their confidence with a successful aggressive build against the Korean Protoss, taking a map off of him and laying the foundation for GP's win in the ace match. Things were more hopeful for the Korean team back then, and GogojOey himself was less of a known variable, giving him the ability to score some surprise wins. Nowadays, he's pretty much figured out and stronger players like Patience should not fall to his trickery anymore. That said, the Protoss players PvZ has been rather weak as of late, so perhaps there is an early blow the Zerg from Hong Kong could land, repeating his performance from the good old times.

Prediction: Team GP 2-4 Team LP


Jin Air Green Wings vs. Alpha X

(Wiki)Rogue < Ice and Chrome > (Wiki)RagnaroK
(Wiki)Rex < Pillars of Gold > (Wiki)Nice
(Wiki)Trap < Eternal Empire > (Wiki)Zoun
Ace: < Ever Dream >

The Golden Dragons and Jin Air will face off in an important match which could have huge playoff seeding implications.

It is rather hard to trust the statistics in the case of JAGW.Rogue after his questionable performances of the previous weeks (3-4 is not the record you'd expect from a player of his calibre in this league), but let's still lay them out: historically, he slightly outmatched αX.RagnaroK with a 19-16 map score, taking their only series in 2020 with a 2-0. His ZvZ has also been much better recently than his opponents'. Sounds like a solid advantage, but are things going to turn out this way in the end? Impossible to say. There has to be a point where someone grabs Rogue by the shoulders and tells him to wake up, but if he keeps sleep-walking through his GTC matches, Alpha X and RagnaroK are going to be very happy with that. Their Zerg certainly has the ability to start them off well here.

It's not often that αX.Nice goes into a match as the strong favorite, but the duel against his countryman JAGW.Rex is one of those occasions: the Protoss has played five series against the Zerg this year, winning all of them with a comfortable combined 11-2 map score, outmatching Rex in all other relevant categories as well. Depending on how RagnaroK does in the first match, this could already be the ticket to the ace match or a straight-up victory for the Golden Dragons—if Nice shows the same level of relentless aggression as against DPG.Dark in the previous week, it's going be really hard for Rex to withstand it.

JAGW.Trap has basically been the only consistently strong player on his team so far, actually delivering the results his reputation and past success demands. It's going to be very interesting to see him duel αX.Zoun, touted by many to be the heir apparent in the line of Protoss strategists. Their two 2020 series have gone Trap's way with a 2-1 score each, suggesting that Zoun definitely has the right instruments available to him to force a map split in this duel. Their PvP forms are incredibly close to each other (67% vs. 66%) and DreamHack Masters featured a pretty prominent match between Trap and Stats very recently, giving the preparation masters at Alpha X the freshest intel possible to work with. I can see another ace match brewing for Jin Air and Alpha X, though unfortunately this also puts the Golden Dragons into a disadvantageous position, since they simply cannot match the power of JAGW.Maru in a reliable manner—upsets are always possible, but the odds are not in their favor. An ace match loss would also mean being overtaken by Jin Air in the rankings, so Alpha X have all the incentive to find a way to finish the series before that. Just like against DPG last week, they have all the potential to take home a win, but everything has to go perfectly for that to happen.

Prediction: Jin Air Green Wings 4-3 Alpha X



Credits and acknowledgements

Written by: TheOneAboveU
Editor: Wax
Stats: Aligulac.com & Liquipedia
Images: Netease

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Moderatoralias TripleM | @TL_TripleM | Big Dark Energy!
ZAWGURN
Profile Joined July 2018
96 Posts
September 20 2020 19:57 GMT
#2
I think Alpha X will pull off an upset, the most likely if RagnaroK and Zoun can steal maps off of their favored opponents, and Nice can take a 2-0 on rex.
CJ herO #1 fan.
RecklessTempest
Profile Joined July 2018
18 Posts
September 20 2020 20:33 GMT
#3
Great summary and predictions!
col_jung
Profile Joined October 2017
139 Posts
September 21 2020 13:04 GMT
#4
Awesome stuff. Looking forward to Week 6!
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