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On September 22 2019 03:40 sneakyfox wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2019 02:01 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 22 2019 01:35 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 22 2019 00:59 sneakyfox wrote:On September 21 2019 22:04 MyLovelyLurker wrote:I was a bit surprised by this article's conclusion. Of course all models/stats are wrong but some are useful. Saying they depend on start date and timeframe is right, but doesn't exonerate from looking deeper into these. You can average/bootstrap over start dates or pick a sensible one (the first of Jan springs to mind). Similarly, timeframe is very important too - but 6 months or six years are equally inane, so I went ahead and picked a full year, safe in the knowledge you can average those to get 2 or 3 year estimates. But of course Aligulac's rampant ratings inflation issue makes comparing players across eras apples-to-oranges. So in order to objectively quantify domination, I've taken an hour that would otherwise have been spent posting, and coded up the pulling out of 1 year rolling, January-starting, offline winrates versus Koreans only, for twenty fantastic SC2 players. (Some players in the lists above don't show rates much above 55% and are therefore not good candidates for inclusion; in consequence I just cut them off the discussion, but I might have forgotten some, do let me know). First, the winrate in series, as it's more discriminative : ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/T442n6A.png) Second, the winrate in games : ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/ZhYGSZy.png) Hopefully those should be legible via browser zooming. These # include this morning's Maru vs Trap series. I deliberately am not presenting my own interpretation of such Stats (hmm) for now, so that you can draw your own conclusions; but note for instance that 2/3 in series seems to be the 'magic' threshold above which players are able to win major tournaments repeatedly. I'll update these numbers after Blizzcon of course, and hope to do a writeup time allowing. I thought TL writers would do this  Great work, thanks for doing that. If you could find some way to represent the sample sizes it would be even better. Having a 65% win rate in 100 matches is, after all, a lot more impressive than having it in 25 matches. Oh yeah, and thanks to Mizen for a great article. Here's hoping that the eternal polemicists of goat discussions will go read it once in a while for a sobering perspective. If out of those 100 players, 80 of them are no stronger than the average top foreigner, is it really so impressive? Both of you make good points - finite sample corrections and stratified sampling both belong, as second order corrections. One is trivial to code and the other not, and it's sunny outside , so I'll do both together later. On balance, they are likely to mostly even out. As per total numbers of games, they do vary, but not more than in a 1 to 2.5 ratio generally for active players. Remember those are games versus Koreans only, and confidence interval width can be tricky. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/JYGdhaV.png) Once these are taken into account, the issue of valuing 1. consistency and 2. clutch factor remains, and those are both strongly subjective factors. Great work. Already we see that ByuN's peak 2015 was based on only 21 games.
His peak in 2015 was from farming B-teamers and non-Proleague players in Olimoleague and such.
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Well, is all about the definition of being the goat. It is a subjective opinion, because for different people different achievements matters. One can say, "ok- best win % = goat", another one would argue " nah! Only premier tournaments wins", and so on. Without making the definition of GOAT, the whole discussion doesn't make sense.
Regardless if it, it seems like we have 5 canditates : Mvp, Life, Inno, Maru, Serral. Every of these players has different "achievements" on his belt.
Mvp = First emperor and master of the game. Ability to play without wrists.
Life = Brilliance, artist of the game. He "always found a way" to win vs stronger opponents.
Inno = Rock solid, mechanically-perfect machine. Smashing opponents like roadroller.
Maru = Micro machine, Superior strength. Being among elite players for so many years. Extremally high peak.
Serral = Consistency, mentall-power, robot.
As i said, it is subjective, but for me Life deserved to be called Goat, because of his ability to win, when he was not favourite. Let's recall year 2015. After dominant wins at the beginning, he was garbage for over half of the year. Then suddenly he has to play Innovation in WC, who had just won code S, and was said to win the whole event. Mech was the way to go as a terran those days, and nobody could beat inno while he played mech. Life with his brilliant tactics, forced inno to go bio (He scared him with his early aggresion) in the series, and after neck and neck battles he menaged to win. He reached the final, just bearly loosing to SoS, being in a horrible form. Just one game, and he would have been back-to-back world champion.
Im very sad he is out of the game. If he was with us, im pretty sure he would have like around 15-18 premier tournaments wins right now, or even more.
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On September 23 2019 21:11 Lgnarrow wrote:
Well, is all about the definition of being the goat. It is a subjective opinion, because for different people different achievements matters. One can say, "ok- best win % = goat", another one would argue " nah! Only premier tournaments wins", and so on. Without making the definition of GOAT, the whole discussion doesn't make sense.
Regardless if it, it seems like we have 5 canditates : Mvp, Life, Inno, Maru, Serral. Every of these players has different "achievements" on his belt.
Mvp = First emperor and master of the game. Ability to play without wrists.
Life = Brilliance, artist of the game. He "always found a way" to win vs stronger opponents.
Inno = Rock solid, mechanically-perfect machine. Smashing opponents like roadroller.
Maru = Micro machine, Superior strength. Being among elite players for so many years. Extremally high peak.
Serral = Consistency, mentall-power, robot.
As i said, it is subjective, but for me Life deserved to be called Goat, because of his ability to win, when he was not favourite. Let's recall year 2015. After dominant wins at the beginning, he was garbage for over half of the year. Then suddenly he has to play Innovation in WC, who had just won code S, and was said to win the whole event. Mech was the way to go as a terran those days, and nobody could beat inno while he played mech. Life with his brilliant tactics, forced inno to go bio (He scared him with his early aggresion) in the series, and after neck and neck battles he menaged to win. He reached the final, just bearly loosing to SoS, being in a horrible form. Just one game, and he would have been back-to-back world champion.
Im very sad he is out of the game. If he was with us, im pretty sure he would have like around 15-18 premier tournaments wins right now, or even more.
I agree its subjective to a very high degree but I strongly disagree with your explanation as to why Life was great. His ability to win when he was not favored is roughly translated to being very inconsistent, which is a negative thing, not a positive.
Being one of the best in the world and then falling from grace so hard that he was garbage and then improving again to be able to be one of the best of the world is being inconsistent. The opposite of Serral and Maru.
For Innovation his wildly shifting form is considered a negative, not a plus, Life should be the same.
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ok some one beat serral in a best of 5
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On September 23 2019 21:11 Lgnarrow wrote:
As i said, it is subjective, but for me Life deserved to be called Goat, because of his ability to win, when he was not favourite.
That is best anti GOAT statement I have ever heard. He was not the favorite. How can he ever be anything close to GOAT then
Maru and Serral are the favorites for any competition they enter
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life might have been royal roader but we also have no idea whether or not he would have just fallen off given meta ie Sniper
+ Show Spoiler +
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At least you mentioned Serral once, he is the best !
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Northern Ireland25342 Posts
On September 24 2019 00:38 Alejandrisha wrote:life might have been royal roader but we also have no idea whether or not he would have just fallen off given meta ie Sniper + Show Spoiler +
Or done an Inno, or switch games like Rain did.
It’s a very competitive, anti-social game to play at the levels needed, these players are humans and not robots after all. Apart from Innovation which makes his troughs completely mystifying to me.
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On September 24 2019 02:56 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2019 00:38 Alejandrisha wrote:life might have been royal roader but we also have no idea whether or not he would have just fallen off given meta ie Sniper + Show Spoiler + Or done an Inno, or switch games like Rain did. It’s a very competitive, anti-social game to play at the levels needed, these players are humans and not robots after all. Apart from Innovation which makes his troughs completely mystifying to me.
what is doing an inno? i do remember he was the most robotic dominant tvz in one meta in hots and then kind of fell off.. and by fell off i mean still one of the top players in the world but not the BEST. the BEST is obviously thebestfou's banshee. i love that the op uses his picture :D :D
rain switched but it was just to win a few rings then just peaced. hard to imagine life was capable of this feat. he had a few good runs but his career was too short and it's impossible to project what people would have done
what ever happened to sniper anyway? did he win a chip and just quit? or did he try to play after bl infestor
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On September 24 2019 14:16 Alejandrisha wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2019 02:56 Wombat_NI wrote:On September 24 2019 00:38 Alejandrisha wrote:life might have been royal roader but we also have no idea whether or not he would have just fallen off given meta ie Sniper + Show Spoiler + Or done an Inno, or switch games like Rain did. It’s a very competitive, anti-social game to play at the levels needed, these players are humans and not robots after all. Apart from Innovation which makes his troughs completely mystifying to me. what is doing an inno? i do remember he was the most robotic dominant tvz in one meta in hots and then kind of fell off.. and by fell off i mean still one of the top players in the world but not the BEST. the BEST is obviously thebestfou's banshee. i love that the op uses his picture :D :D rain switched but it was just to win a few rings then just peaced. hard to imagine life was capable of this feat. he had a few good runs but his career was too short and it's impossible to project what people would have done what ever happened to sniper anyway? did he win a chip and just quit? or did he try to play after bl infestor
Sniper had mediocre results in HotS so he switched to the other HotS and went to eliminate the fan favorites and the best team in the world in KR Blizzcon qualifier, only to lose the Blizzcon itself to NA.
So he just ruined another game, really.
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Terran gave up on this game...I wonder why. "Just play like Maru!" Oh wait he's gone too.
User was temp banned for this post.
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On September 24 2019 22:07 Madhouze wrote:
Life GOAT 4 Never!!
Fixed that for you
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Haha didn't know Mizenhauer is still trying to degrade Serral He very much dislikes him apparently lol
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On September 24 2019 16:49 Ej_ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2019 14:16 Alejandrisha wrote:On September 24 2019 02:56 Wombat_NI wrote:On September 24 2019 00:38 Alejandrisha wrote:life might have been royal roader but we also have no idea whether or not he would have just fallen off given meta ie Sniper + Show Spoiler + Or done an Inno, or switch games like Rain did. It’s a very competitive, anti-social game to play at the levels needed, these players are humans and not robots after all. Apart from Innovation which makes his troughs completely mystifying to me. what is doing an inno? i do remember he was the most robotic dominant tvz in one meta in hots and then kind of fell off.. and by fell off i mean still one of the top players in the world but not the BEST. the BEST is obviously thebestfou's banshee. i love that the op uses his picture :D :D rain switched but it was just to win a few rings then just peaced. hard to imagine life was capable of this feat. he had a few good runs but his career was too short and it's impossible to project what people would have done what ever happened to sniper anyway? did he win a chip and just quit? or did he try to play after bl infestor Sniper had mediocre results in HotS so he switched to the other HotS and went to eliminate the fan favorites and the best team in the world in KR Blizzcon qualifier, only to lose the Blizzcon itself to NA. So he just ruined another game, really.
lol how fitting
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lol no bias :D
in the op i was upset that the only time serral was mentioned was in the context of some one beating him. give the kid some credit he's kind of good at starcraft..
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Can’t believe this is even a discussion. Doh Jae Wook is best.
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sOs really doesn't get a lot of credit for winning Blizzcon twice, considering that Serral's Blizzcon win is a major piece of the argument for Serral being GOAT.
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EPT
