Start time: Wednesday, Aug 29 4:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)
The time for second chances is over as Code S moves on from the group stages to the single elimination playoffs. We begin with the lower half of the bracket as Maru is away in Indonesia for StarCraft II exhibition at the 2018 Asian Games.
Neeb and Rogue’s clash at the 2017 WCS Global Finals was quite possibly the most anticipated match-up of the group stages. Neeb had dominated the WCS Circuit by winning three out of four events and had nothing left to prove against non-Korean opponents. Rogue—a last-chance Global Finals entrant with back-to-back wins at IEM Shanghai and GSL Super Tournament #2—was the hottest player entering the tournament
Neeb ended up quenching Rogue's hot streak in a late-game slog on Mech Depot, where he proved that even the Jin Air Zerg's famous patience had its limits. It was validation for Neeb's supplicants who had long argued that he would find success against Koreans as well. Not only had he gone toe-to-toe with the best Zerg in the world, but he had upstaged Rogue in his element. Buoyed by his victory over Rogue, Neeb was in the driver’s seat after the first day of the group stages, but his story didn’t have a happy ending. It turned out he hadn't extinguished Rogue's flame—he had merely tempered his steel. Rogue easily dispatched Neeb in the group's decider match, leaving Neeb to wonder “what if” as Rogue went on to claim the title of BlizzCon champion.
It’s fair to say both players have experienced their fair share of ups and downs in the ten months that followed. Though Rogue reaffirmed his class by winning IEM Katowice, he’s otherwise struggled to live up to his title-contender billing. Here's his list of GSL finishes this year: Ro32 (Code S S1), Ro16 (Super Tournament #1), Ro8 (Code S S2), Ro16 (GSL vs. The World). This isn’t the Rogue that shocked and awed us last year.
Or is it?
The fact is that Rogue’s trajectory this year is uncannily similar to that of his in 2017. He reached two Code S quarterfinals that year as well. His poor play in SSL Challenge mirrors his dismal efforts in non-Code S Korean tournaments in 2018. For the most part, this is the same, maddeningly inconsistent Rogue: impotent one day, imperious champion the next.
Neeb’s 2018 has been nothing like his astonishing 2017. At a glance it would be a simple matter to say Serral forcibly usurped the foreigner throne, but the unquestionable reality is that Neeb simply hasn’t been good enough to contest the Finnish Zerg. It hasn’t been Serral who’s sent him crashing out of tournaments. Neeb has been ousted by MaNa once and ShoWTimE twice. He’s never come within shouting distance of the recently crowned GSL vs. the World champion. Neeb has still been good enough to virtually guarantee his spot at the Global Finals, but he’s no longer the titan who dismissively cast aside all competition en route to a WCS Circuit triple crown.
Neeb has had no choice but to grow familiar with being the underdog. On the WCS Circuit he's been just another member of the pack gazing up at Serral, and in this season of Code S he’s been looked upon as third fiddle in both groups he’s played in. Now, here he is, walking into a best of five against the same Korean Zerg that sent him packing at BlizzCon last year. Neeb entered that tournament at the peak of his powers and it still wasn’t enough. How could this diminished version topple Rogue who, if it weren’t for Maru, may have become a Code S champion? (And what does one make of Neeb's 3-2 victory over Rogue at the Hangzhou StarCraft festival?)
This isn’t the rematch we imagined after their BlizzCon showdown. Rogue had to be considered the favorite to win the first GSL of 2018, while there was no reason to believe Neeb would allow the foreign scene to slip from beneath his boot. And yet, here they are, diminished and humbled, looking up at others rather than surveying their domain. Code S can’t be won in the Round of 8, but a victory here would bring Neeb and Rogue ever closer to a crowning moment that would absolve their shortcomings in 2018.
Editor's note: Mizenhauer declined to make a prediction so I'm making one in his place:
Rogue 3 - 1 Neeb
Quarterfinal #2: Leenock vs TY
by Malafice
This Ro32 matchup pits Leenock against… Wait, this is the Ro8? Leenock is still in the tournament?
Ahem… This Ro8 matchup features the perennial championship contender TY and the GSL gatekeeper Leenock. Considering their achievements in Legacy of the Void, even the most junior of TL writers could predict this match to be a one sided stomp in TY’s favor. However, Leenock’s recent GSL showings have continued to delight viewers and defy expectations. With TY looking formidable as ever, the real question here is just how good is Leenock?
As hinted at earlier, this is Leenock’s first trip to a Code S Ro8 since November of 2012. Leenock was one of the best Zergs in the world during Wings of Liberty, but he's spent the lengthier portion of his career mired in mediocrity. As a result, little more than the occasional Ro16 appearance has been expected of him.
Leenock looked like he was headed to another early exit after beginning the season in a Ro32 group with tournament favorite Maru. Leenock's fate seemed all but sealed, but a miracle occurred. The Godnock reemerged from his ancient slumber and descended upon the unsuspecting mortals of the GSL. The Godnock smote down his foes with unrelenting fury on his way to the Ro8, even pummeling Maru in a late game ZvT. Sure, Leenock ended up losing the series 1-2 to Maru, but the sheer quality of Leenock's play in that match left StarCraft II fans bristling with excitement. Leenock showed he was capable of top tier ZvT akin to the likes of Rogue and Dark. He will certainly need it if he wants to take down one of the Four Horsemen of Terran in a Bo5.
For TY, a GSL Ro8 appearance is business as usual. What’s odd for the Terran titan is the fact that he’s failed to bring home any premier tournament victories in 2018. However, nearly everyone in the StarCraft II scene will attest to the fact that TY is still in top form. Even Maru seemed wary of facing TY during the Ro16 Group Nominations, where TY remained unselected until the final round.
Taking a page out of Maru’s book, TY made quick work of both Protoss powerhouses, sOs and Stats, in the proxy-fest that was Group D of the Ro16. While TY most certainly has his eyes set on the GSL S3 finals, he would be foolish to look past the lowly Leenock.
Any other year, any other season, any other tournament, TY would be the undisputed favorite against Leenock. But not this time. Maybe this writer has been listening to too many Artosis casts, but Leenock has a real shot here against TY. Leenock proved he can go toe-to-toe with the best in a late game ZvT, and he isn’t afraid to get aggressive early either. That being said, TY’s reputation as one of the best Terran players in the world is well-earned. His tactics are unpredictable, his mechanics are god-tier, and most importantly, he wants the Code S championship that's eluded him for so long.
But Leenock wants the Code S title just as much, and he's wanted it for much longer. If the Godnock returns to pick up where he left off in 2011, this series will be a breathtaking display of exquisite ZvT. If the grizzled, old, war-torn Leenock appears instead, they might as well not even play. My faith is in the Godnock.
On August 28 2018 22:23 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: Any other year, any other season, any other tournament, TY would be the undisputed favorite against Leenock. But not this time.
It's fine to predict Leenock to win and get hyped for him, but to pretend that TY isn't the odds-on favorite against Leenock is to lie to yourself.
How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
Neeb-Rogue 1hour game in Blizzcon 2017 is the most epic game I've seen in SC2 during the last year. Hope they go to the late game but I guess it will be all about adept/roach-bane timings.
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
Okay, well you can say this, but the most recently results show Neeb beating Rogue so.....
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
Rogue has NEVER, I repeat, NEVER won late game against Neeb. He only wins by cheesing Neeb or all-ins, that speaks volume about how Rogue thinks about facing Neeb. And it's not disrespext when Rogue cheeses because he know as well as we do that he can't beat Neeb in late game, and it's not like Neeb doesn't know how to cheese either. On top of all that they have a 3-3 record against each other, so this is closer then you think, my friend. If this was Dark vs Neeb, I won't even bother typing this out, but Rogie vs Neeb is very close.
For whatever reason, the SC2 TL previews (as opposed to those for BW) seem sometimes to focus more on hype and narrative over actual gameplay analysis, predictions, and discussion of how the two player's style will interact. Mizenhauer's preview tells me very little about how Neeb and Rogue actually play, and how their styles might match up, but just talks about how 'we' view them compared to the rest of the scene, and how 'on top' of things they are.
While obviously not everyone can analyze games or talk about player's styles with the skill and clarity of someone like PiG, there has to be a better kind of writing than this. To me, it feels boring and uninteresting. Strangely enough, the attempt to add hype and excitement by pretending that the players are characters in some sort of pseudo-fantastical fanfiction (why are they constantly surveying their domains? Does that remind you of the real Starcraft players and their play at all?) actually makes the games feel less important. I'm not interested in who is 'in charge' of the mythical Starcraft 2 domain; I want to get a good basis for what gameplay elements will be important and worth watching for in the series. I'd much rather get a little context for what it means when Rogue goes early upgrades than I would pretend to believe that Neeb was 'dismissive' towards any of his opponents.
Leenock's recent hospitalization so close to the event makes me lean towards TY more than anything. In terms of recent stats, TY is killing it while Leenock's ZvT appears to be quite bad. However, Leenock has also shown a night and day difference in his GSL form vs his online performances very much like Rogue. He seemed very good against Maru but that's just one bo3.
I guess it's just the unprecedented return to form combined with remembering how scary Leenock could be before he went on a long streak of being code S fodder that makes me think he has some hope here. He beat prime Mvp in a bo5 ffs
That's really unfortunate timing, hopefully his recovery is going well. That said I think Leenock is due to a return to form, and I think TY will bring him back to earth 3-1.
Is it just me are these two matches missing from the TL sidebar of Upcoming Events?
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
(...) And it's not disrespext when Rogue cheeses because he know as well as we do that he can't beat Neeb in late game (...)
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
(...) And it's not disrespext when Rogue cheeses because he know as well as we do that he can't beat Neeb in late game (...)
seriously?
Find me one instance where Rogue has beaten Neeb in the late game when they were even. When have you seen Rogue beat Neeb when Rogue is the one with a deficit? Probably not, but Neeb has recovered quite a few times and beat Rogue (that 4th game in the Hangzhou Carnival comes to mind) Lets take a look at the wins Neeb has on Rogue, out of the 7 games that Neeb won vs Rogue, 3 of them were early game wins. Neeb cheesed Rogue in the last game in Hangzhou with a chargelot all-in. And in KeSPa cup 2016, Rogue was so shit that Neeb just striaght up smashed him with Adepts the rest of the 4 games they played went to the late game. Two in Blizzcon and 2 times in Hangzhou. Meanwhile Rogue has used Nydus all-ins, ling rushes and ling bane all-ins to beat Neeb.
I've been a Leenock fan for so long, I hope he's finally able to find some success this year. Also wouldn't be surprised if winner of Maru/Gumi wins the entire thing ;x
On August 29 2018 03:46 Clicker wrote: I've been a Leenock fan for so long, I hope he's finally able to find some success this year. Also wouldn't be surprised if winner of Maru/Gumi wins the entire thing ;x
On August 29 2018 03:46 Clicker wrote: I've been a Leenock fan for so long, I hope he's finally able to find some success this year. Also wouldn't be surprised if winner of Maru/Gumi wins the entire thing ;x
dont think Gumi can beat Stats.
Of course he can. He may not be favored to but he certainly can.
On August 29 2018 03:46 Clicker wrote: I've been a Leenock fan for so long, I hope he's finally able to find some success this year. Also wouldn't be surprised if winner of Maru/Gumi wins the entire thing ;x
dont think Gumi can beat Stats.
Of course he can. He may not be favored to but he certainly can.
oh damn didn't know leenock had surgery hope he gets better. but does he actually have a chance to beat TY? leenock hasn't been good in a long time and TY has stomped tougher opponents
agree with rogue beating neeb. if neeb wins though he will show up serral for stealing his thunder with gsl vs world
If Neeb makes a much deeper run in this GSL (Ro4 or better), that would really make WCS Montreal a lot more interesting in terms of storyline than just Serral vs. the World
On August 29 2018 03:46 Clicker wrote: I've been a Leenock fan for so long, I hope he's finally able to find some success this year. Also wouldn't be surprised if winner of Maru/Gumi wins the entire thing ;x
dont think Gumi can beat Stats.
Of course he can. He may not be favored to but he certainly can.
ohh, okay. Most of those are online results though, and online stats compared to offline stats is quite different
Of course. And I'm not trying to say Gumiho is favored, or these results in particular prove Gumiho can win, or anything like that really. I'm just trying to point out the fallacy of using absolutes when you're talking about players (or teams) who are very near the very top of their competition.
Here we have two players, both former GSL champions (Gumiho more recent than Stats even), both whose recent form is good to great, both who've made two GSL Ro8+ and one Ro16 this year. There's not a player in the world that either one of them can not beat. You can say either one is favored by just about any degree that you want and it's fine. Debatable of course, but personal opinion and it's fine (as long as you have factual reasoning). It's when you start to use absolutes like someone CAN'T win that you run the risk of making yourself look silly.
On August 29 2018 03:46 Clicker wrote: I've been a Leenock fan for so long, I hope he's finally able to find some success this year. Also wouldn't be surprised if winner of Maru/Gumi wins the entire thing ;x
These previews are getting worse and worse in terms of quality. I want to see previews based on recent performance, current offline score vs each other and prediction based on those two qualities. THEN I would like to see a narrative about past performance, what COULD happen based on past performances and then another prediction based on those qualities.
All I see here is "Neeb is just grinding ladder", "Rogue showed strong results lately must be favorite in this match." Wtf kind of prediction is that?
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
(...) And it's not disrespext when Rogue cheeses because he know as well as we do that he can't beat Neeb in late game (...)
seriously?
He's a troll that thinks the lack of Rogue vs Neeb lategames is evidence that Rogue can't beat Neeb when the game goes late. It's funny that they think Neeb is going to suddenly prove his doubters all wrong. Wasn't that supposed to happen at Blizzcon 2016, and Blizzcon 2017?
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
(...) And it's not disrespext when Rogue cheeses because he know as well as we do that he can't beat Neeb in late game (...)
seriously?
He's a troll that thinks the lack of Rogue vs Neeb lategames is evidence that Rogue can't beat Neeb when the game goes late. It's funny that they think Neeb is going to suddenly prove his doubters all wrong. Wasn't that supposed to happen at Blizzcon 2016, and Blizzcon 2017?
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
Okay, well you can say this, but the most recently results show Neeb beating Rogue so.....
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
Okay, well you can say this, but the most recently results show Neeb beating Rogue so.....
On August 28 2018 23:50 Rodya wrote: How do you decline to make a prediction in Rogue vs Neeb lol? This isn't a difficult match to predict, one is well rounded godlike player with the best lategame in the world among zergs and the other is a middling foreigner who relies on grinding out wins in the lategame and whose control isn't good enough to hold early aggression from top players.
Even if you aren't going to predict the obvious 3-0, not predicting just makes you look silly. They wouldn't have even met at Blizzcon if not for the region lock gifting Neeb tons of wcs points.
Wrong! 3-1 by Neeb! Though Rogue was not looking good today.
I heard a lot of Korean pros saying TY is the scariest player to play atm. Like Dark and Rogue mentioned that they are so glad TY is not playing in GSL vs world. And even heard from many other pros saying TY is really good recently. These are definitely some information that normal fans usually can't catch.
Like Rogue in last year for example, he's been doing not good until mid-late 2017, he barely barely qualified to blizzcon for winning super tournament by rank 8 in WCS Korea. And after he began to rise right before blizzcon, he actually won blizzcon too. And before that, a lot of Korean pros were talking about how Rogue was good before super tournament and IEM Shanghai. And ofc normal fans had no idea about this at that time.
It's kinda similar with TY now, he is only ranked 7 in WCS Korea currently but he is the one who is considered as top form atm by other pros. There must be a reason why Maru wanted to avoid TY in GSL ro16 group nomination. I wonder if same thing gonna happen in this blizzcon :p
On August 29 2018 21:42 RandomOnlyTheHumanLf wrote: I heard a lot of Korean pros saying TY is the scariest player to play atm. Like Dark and Rogue mentioned that they are so glad TY is not playing in GSL vs world. And even heard from many other pros saying TY is really good recently. These are definitely some information that normal fans usually can't catch.
Like Rogue in last year for example, he's been doing not good until mid-late 2017, he barely barely qualified to blizzcon for winning super tournament by rank 8 in WCS Korea. And after he began to rise right before blizzcon, he actually won blizzcon too. And before that, a lot of Korean pros were talking about how Rogue was good before super tournament and IEM Shanghai. And ofc normal fans had no idea about this at that time.
It's kinda similar with TY now, he is only ranked 7 in WCS Korea currently but he is the one who is considered as top form atm by other pros. There must be a reason why Maru wanted to avoid TY in GSL ro16 group nomination. I wonder if same thing gonna happen in this blizzcon :p
I watch GSL from its very beginning in 2010 and I can boldly say that TY is The most intelligent and tactical player I've ever watched (I've added "tactical" because TY is very different from sOs). Unfortunately he got a terrible record of wining rounds and then his opponents have a huge comeback finishing the whole mach. This is how Gumiho beat TY and became later a champion and Rogue did the same at Blizzcon. This is a huge psychological issue which TY should pay more attention. What it lacking in TY's play style is the simplicity of which other players won many tournaments. This is how Inno's 2-2 upgrade rush made him unbeatable for a period of time. TY is always taking the hardest path of dealing with his opponents. Not long ago nobody could beat TY in super long macro matches until Dark and then Maru of course surpassed him. I still have no clear idea why TY is not a Code S champion yet after so many lost chances. For this year he is not on his top shape yet.
On August 29 2018 21:42 RandomOnlyTheHumanLf wrote: I heard a lot of Korean pros saying TY is the scariest player to play atm. Like Dark and Rogue mentioned that they are so glad TY is not playing in GSL vs world. And even heard from many other pros saying TY is really good recently. These are definitely some information that normal fans usually can't catch.
Like Rogue in last year for example, he's been doing not good until mid-late 2017, he barely barely qualified to blizzcon for winning super tournament by rank 8 in WCS Korea. And after he began to rise right before blizzcon, he actually won blizzcon too. And before that, a lot of Korean pros were talking about how Rogue was good before super tournament and IEM Shanghai. And ofc normal fans had no idea about this at that time.
It's kinda similar with TY now, he is only ranked 7 in WCS Korea currently but he is the one who is considered as top form atm by other pros. There must be a reason why Maru wanted to avoid TY in GSL ro16 group nomination. I wonder if same thing gonna happen in this blizzcon :p
I still have no clear idea why TY is not a Code S champion yet after so many lost chances
EPT![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/2018/gsls3bracket1_1.png)
Neeb and 
TY and the GSL gatekeeper 
Leenock. Considering their achievements in Legacy of the Void, even the most junior of TL writers could predict this match to be a one sided stomp in TY’s favor. However, Leenock’s recent GSL showings have continued to delight viewers and defy expectations. With TY looking formidable as ever, the real question here is just how good is Leenock?
