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Making the Grade, Again: Code S Group Nominations

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Making the Grade, Again: Code S Group Nominations

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
May 18th, 2018 05:13 GMT

Making the Grade, Again: Code S Group Nominations

Written by Mizenhauer [image loading]
Photo by leimmia [image loading]

Not all GSL matches turn into epic battles that leave you at the edge of your seat. It's just the nature of StarCraft II for some games to end up being one-sided. But there's one part of GSL that's always guaranteed to be exciting: the Group Nominations. Intrigue and drama abound as the attending players use all of their cunning and diplomatic savvy to try and land themselves in the easiest possible group.

2018 Global StarCraft II League Season 2 - Code S

Unseeded players are often the most entertaining as they must connive, beg, and threaten their way into a favorable group. But it's the seeded players who wield the true power. If they can correctly predict everyone's preferences and motivations, then they can set up a chain of events that will fetch them a perfect trio of RO16 opponents.

Of course, creating an easy group as a seeded player doesn't mean much if you s*** the bed when it comes time to play the games (looking at you, INnoVation). On the other hand, Stats completely lost control of his group last season, but still managed to play his way out of the PvP dogpile he was heaved into.

All that goes to say... I'm well aware of how last season's grades look in hindsight, and I'm resigned to the fact that this season's grades might end up the same way once the groups play out. Alas, this would be so much easier if those pesky players would just play the way they're supposed to.

Ruminations aside, the players met in the FreeCUP studio on May 16 to take another crack at things. I suppose I should, too. Here are your Group Nomination grades for GSL Code S Season 2.

THE RULES
• The top four players from the previous Code S are seeded into separate groups (A-D-C-B order)
• First four picks are made in order of seeding (#1 seed gets 1st pick, #2 seed gets 2nd pick, etc.)
• Remaining eight picks are made in "snake draft" order, starting from Group D
• After all picks are made, the #1 seed can swap any two non-seeded players

THE PICKS - (pick order in parentheses)

Group A: Maru -> (1) Patience -> (8) Solar --> (9) Zest
Group B: soO --> (4) Dear -> (12, SWAP) INnoVation -> (10) Rogue
Group C: Dark --> (3) Classic -> (6) Trap --> (11) TY
Group D: Stats --> (2) ByuN --> (5) sOs --> (7, SWAP) GuMiho

If this still leaves you utterly confused, don't worry: that's how everyone feels.



For creative chit-chat, testy trash-talk, and violent video vignettes, we suggest you watch the Group Nomination in its entirety.


Maru: (#1 Seed) - Grade: A+

Group A: Maru, Patience, Solar, Zest

The rich keep getting richer. One of the oft overlooked benefits of winning GSL is the #1 seed in the next season's Group Nomination, and the entailing right to swap the group positions of any two non-seeded players. (Wiki)Maru followed up his imperious GSL campaign with an equally commanding performance while drafting for the round-of-sixteen. Playing the role of shrewd tactician as opposed to conquering despot, Maru managed to create the group of his dreams.

Maru started off by picking (Wiki)Patience, the player universally regarded as the weakest in the RO16 (this isn't my appraisal—the attending players openly dismissed Patience's skills). Maru had to wait for six players to go off the board before getting a second bite of the cherry, but he made excellent use of the opportunity by snatching up (Wiki)Solar and (Wiki)Zest.

No, Maru didn't make the picks directly, but Patience and Solar were all too eager to do his bidding. It made all the sense in the world from their perspective—beating Maru might be next to impossible, but they must have liked their chances to advance in second place from among Maru's hand-picked weaklings. They would bend the knee to Maru and then fight for his table scraps.

Anyway, back to Maru. He made easy work of Solar at IEM Katowice in perhaps the first, high-profile display of Ghost/Raven mastery. As for Zest, one couldn't keep a straight face while trying to assert Zest is on Maru’s level. The once great Protoss doesn’t look anywhere close to winning Code S these days, instead settling for OlimoLeague and Ballistix Brawl greatness (what kind of world are we living in where Zest and Impact played four times in a single month?).

Maru’s road to the quarterfinals was already being paved with gold bricks, but he had to put the finishing touches on his masterpiece. I think we would all predict Maru to advance in first place from his RO16 group, and he must fancy himself as the top dog as well. In that case, GSL seeding would would put him in a quarterfinal match against the second place player from Group B.

At that point in the proceedings, Group B contained soO, Gumiho, Dear, and Rogue. Maru hasn't been shy about singing Rogue's praises, and he probably expected his Jin Air teammate to advance in first place (especially with the soO’s disastrous ZvT and Dear’s general haplessness). Meanwhile, over in Group D, another Jin Air player in sOs was staring down a tough opening match against INnoVation, who many of the players seemed to fear despite his recent lack of results. Given the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone, Maru granted a favor to sOs by swapping GuMiho and INnoVation (this gave Rogue the task of facing INnoVation instead, but Rogue was one of the few players who was confident about taking him on).

It should be noted that even before Maru actually exercised his right-to-swap, he had been aiding his teammates with its mere threat. All of the non-Jin Air players present knew that Maru would use his swap to undo any Jin Air team-kill, limiting their effective range of picks. On the other hand, the Jin Air players were allowed to operate more freely, with the other players unable to employ the powerful tactic of threatening to create a team-kill.

Overall, Maru has positioned himself brilliantly to make another deep run. His RO16 opponents are already resigned to a battle for second place. His three presumed quarterfinal candidates—soO, INnoVation or Dear—all trail behind him in their current form. Furthermore, Maru didn't just help himself, but he gave his Jin Air teammates a better chance of advancing to the quarterfinals together. He may have pulled off the best #1 seed performance in Group Nomination history.

soO: (#4 Seed) - Grade: D

Group B: soO, Dear, INnoVation, Rogue

(Wiki)soO can’t seem to catch a break.

Last season, INnoVation wrecked soO's near-perfect group at the last moment by swapping Dear and aLive. soO survived to reach the quarterfinals anyway, winning a pair of matches against aLive—ironically, the very player who had supposedly ruined his group. It all goes to show that an easy group is no guarantee of advancing, just as no quartet is an automatic death sentence. Even so, soO must have wished he'd have an easier time this time around, after the unenviable trial he had to endure in Season 1.

Just like the previous season, (Wiki)Dear was soO's first pick in the draft, and this time he actually got to keep him! Regardless of what soO says for the cameras about getting revenge on his past finals opponents, his repeat selection of Dear is consistent with a more shrewd plan: pick the weakest Protoss left on the board. So far, so good.

Dear went on to pick (Wiki)GuMiho, which was a sensible choice given the general state of PvT and the fact that PvT has been Dear's best match-up since the 4.0 patch. On the other hand, soO couldn't have been thrilled at having his worst match-up tested, even if he had inexplicably navigated his way out of a double-Terran group last season. That had seemed more magic trick than replicable feat. At least it would be easier to take on GuMiho, compared to TY or INnoVation who were still on the board (ByuN had been snapped up early on by Stats). When GuMiho’s turn to pick came around, he did soO a solid by selecting (Wiki)Rogue instead of TY or INnoVation, who had remained untouched until the very end.

TY went to Group C and INnoVation landed in Group D, but the proceedings were not quite complete. Plenty of wheeling and dealing happens off-camera, and all of the Group Nomination participants seemed to be aware that Group B would be the target of Maru's intervention. soO surely hoped the Jin Air Terran would exercise his right to trade Zest with GuMiho, completing what Solar had called the "lowest MMR trifecta." Sadly Maru was less than accommodating of soO, swapping GuMiho with a Terran soO has had significantly less success against throughout his career in (Wiki)INnoVation. Thus, another awful group for soO was completed.

Things went a bit better for soO this time around, since he actually gets to play his selected opponent in Dear. However, he is yet again the collateral damage of meddling by a #1 seed Terran, blind-sided by another difficult ZvT test at the last second.


Dark: (#3 Seed) - Grade: D

Group C: Dark, Classic, Trap, TY

(Wiki)Dark fell short in the semifinals of the previous season of GSL, but it was good enough to earn him a seeded spot in the Group Nominations. In years past, Dark had frequently been one of the most swaggering players in the Group Nominations, challenging all championship contenders to come at him. This time, he claimed to have taken new approach which valued practicality over bluster.

Dark must have been disappointed to find that Patience and ByuN were off the board by the time it was his turn to pick, but he still had juicy targets such as GuMiho, Dear and Solar to choose from. Instead, he choose (Wiki)Classic. Wait, Classic?

Aside from Rogue's haughty dismissal of INnoVation, Dark's pick of Classic might have demonstrated the biggest difference between pro-gamer perception and fan perception of a player. Yes, we all know Classic’s kryptonite is PvZ, but he’s still the best Protoss in the world in the other two match-ups (at worst, second best) and a true force to be reckoned with. But if fans considered Classic's PvZ to be good-but-not-great, then Dark showed us he rates Classic's PvZ as straight-up bad.

In any case, the move was a clear sign that Dark is confident in his ZvP, but he should have been dismayed when Classic added (Wiki)Trap to the group. Trap has given Dark fits over the past few months, defeating him in a best-of-eleven ONPOONG showmatch and eliminating him from the playoffs of IEM Katowice. 1v1 competitions often come down to a clash of styles. For whatever reason, Trap has faired extremely well against Dark's normally unmatched genius.

Where Trap pulled the rug out from under Stats last season, starting the PvP chain reaction, this season Classic did the same to Dark. When it was Trap's turn to choose, he faced the unenviable decision of choosing between (Wiki)TY and INnoVation. Trap chose the more in-form Splyce Terran, who presents a greater threat to Dark at the moment.

Dark took out both INnoVation and Ryung 2-1 in the RO32, but it wouldn't be crazy to say Ryung was the one who frustrated Dark more. While Dark was able to punish INnoVation for his clumsy use of Ghost-Raven, he absolutely short-circuited when faced with Ryung's version of "I'm never crossing the halfway line of the map" mech. TY has historically been a master of that most-loathsome style of Terran, even if he has been outshone by Maru lately. Any clash between Dark and TY will hinge on how they adjust to the latest balance patch, and where the meta stands on Group C's match day of May 30th.

Stats: (#2 Seed) - Grade: A

Group D: Stats, ByuN, sOs, GuMiho

(Wiki)Stats stuck it to the haters last season, making it all the way to the finals despite being disparaged and predicted to lose in almost every single round. Notably, TeamLiquid.net gave him an "F" grade in the Group Nominations for picking his way into an absurd ALL-PROTOSS RO16 group, while having a sub 50% PvP win rate at the time (he ended up advancing in second place with a 5-3 map score). It remains to be seen if he can duplicate that success, now that he doesn't have our endless doubt to use as motivation. Just kidding—Stats' consistency appears to be a cosmic force that can't be affected by mere mortals.

Stats got off to a good start, as he quickly snatched (Wiki)ByuN into his group. It was an unsurprising move for a number of reasons: PvT in general, Stats' hardiness against aggressive styles of play, and the fact that ByuN has been so out of form that he literally cried in relief when he reached the RO16 this season.

Classic and Dear were off the board by the time it was ByuN’s turn to add a third member to the group. This is where the hilarity began for Stats last season, but ByuN went for a very reasonable pick in (Wiki)sOs. sOs and Stats have have played once in 2018 and only three times in 2017. Stats has to be considered a favorite, however, as he's won a couple of important PvP BO5's in the GSL this year.

That was the last pick in Group D, as (Wiki)INnoVation was defaulted in as the final member. However, Maru soon arrived as an interceding angel, carrying away the woeful machine and leaving behind a protesting (Wiki)GuMiho as a gift. GuMiho might have been a champion in 2017, but one year later, he clearly ranked among the more desirable opponents remaining in the RO16. In the same instant that soO stepped into a mound of dog poop on the street, Stats happened to look down and find an errant $20 bill.

The Splyce Protoss has a proclivity for showing up in offline events, and now faces a far less challenging group than the one he did a season ago. If he managed to wade through that bloodbath, he should have no trouble of reaching the elimination rounds again. What do I know, though? We’ll just have to watch and find out how wrong I was about this whole mess.




Credits and acknowledgements

Written by: Mizenhauer
Editor: Wax
Photo: leimmia
Statistics: Aligulac.com

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TL+ Member
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33360 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-18 05:32:15
May 18 2018 05:31 GMT
#2
I figured I'd grade Mizenhauer's grades from the PREVIOUS season of Code S, because I'm criminally self-indulgent like that.

INnoVation (#1 seed)
- Grade: A
- Actual result: Eliminated in RO16, third place in group (losses to Scarlett and Zest)

It's absolutely ludicrous to blame players for messing up your predictions, instead of blaming yourself for being bad at making predictions. EXCEPT in this one specific instance, where it's definitely all INnoVation's fault, while Mizenhauer should be held totally blameless. Seriously, INnoVation, what the hell?

soO (#4 seed)
- Grade: D-
- Actual result: Reached semifinals (lost 3-4 to Stats)

Mizenhauer has a habit of looking at every soO situation as negatively as possible, because he can't bear to be hurt by his expectations again. It's kind of adorable (unless you were offended by the Rogue article, in which case it might be nauseating). Anyway, Mizenhauer declared this group a disaster because ALIVE was swapped into the group in place of Dear. Now, soO might have trouble in Zvt, but declaring anything a disaster because aLive popped up out of nowhere is just downright silly.

GumiHo (#3 seed)
- Grade: D
- Actual result: Eliminated in RO16, third place in group (losses Classic and Maru)

Mizenhauer got this one about exactly right. Congrats!

Stats (#2 seed)
- Grade: F
- Actual result: Reached grand final (lost 2-4 to Maru)

As one of the Stats doubters at the time, I was inclined to agree with Mizenhauer's negativity. Stats was below 50% in PvP after the 4.0 patch, and he faced a ROUGH PvP group of sOs, Trap, and herO. At the same time, I also feel that the volatility of PvP means that there's a lower limit on how bad things can get. Think about it this way: when a weaker Protoss layer lands himself in a Protoss-heavy group, we always consider that a good thing for that player. I think a C grade was fair here.

Overall Mizenhauer Grade: C+

While it was certainly funny that Mizenhauer got INnoVation and Stats so abjectly wrong in terms of results, I found his thought process to be fairly reasonable. He should have taken a glass-half-full approach to Stats' group, but outside that I would probably have given similar grades to the seeded players.
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-18 08:30:56
May 18 2018 06:57 GMT
#3
Call me a skeptic, but I'm really not buying all the Rogue hype. Some people (cough cough Artosis) are way overestimating the guy considering his form since Katowice, the balance changes since, and the rest of his group. His last big achievement was back in March, which, to be fair, is more recent than any of his groupmates' trophies. That being said, neither ZvP nor ZvT is the same as it was back then, nor has Rogue shown any particular superiority since.

While losing to Dear is probably still off the cards, losing to either soO, or INnoVation, or both would hardly be an upset. Outside of a finals, I would never bet against soO in ZvZ, and Rogue fell 1-3 to Inno in the Super Tournament. While he did narrowly defeat Inno 3-2 at Hangzhou (after losing to Neeb) his reverse-sweep there mirrors the reverse-sweep he achieved against Maru at Katowice–that is, heavily dependent on roach-based allins. I'd hesitate to expect similar results again, especially with the recent Marauder buff. The guys on the Pylon Show might guarantee that he advances, but personally I'd question Rogue being much better than 50% against soO/Inno.

Most of that might sound patently ridiculous at first glance (it did to me while I was typing it) but the thing is, while soO and Inno have both shown big weaknesses as of late, neither of them are weak against Zerg. soO has been struggling in ZvT whereas Inno has been struggling in TvP. I'd agree that Rogue is probably a stronger overall player than soO and/or Inno, but that means jack shit when they square off head-to-head.

Add all that to the fact that Rogue has historically underperformed in GSL and I would not at all be surprised if he gets knocked out in the Ro16.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33360 Posts
May 18 2018 07:06 GMT
#4
Maru says Rogue is good which is good enough for me
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-18 07:14:09
May 18 2018 07:08 GMT
#5
Hell, I just watched Rogue type out gg to Hurricane on stream, about two seconds ago. Maybe his ZvP is questionable too.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16955 Posts
May 18 2018 07:09 GMT
#6
We need Stuchiu to tell us why Maru's group nomination isn't the best ever, due to that one time where Mvp maneuvered perfect groups for himself and Nestea by playing 4D chess with everyone else's minds.
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-18 07:17:20
May 18 2018 07:12 GMT
#7
On May 18 2018 16:06 Waxangel wrote:
Maru says Rogue is good which is good enough for me


Maru knows more than me about Rogue's form (duh), but I also have to conclude that Inno was picked last for a reason. The fact that sOs of all people didn't want to face him in the first match, despite PvT being what it is and sOs being who he is, raises my eyebrows. If Inno is really as washed up as they say, why would Maru waste his switch?
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
Mahanaim
Profile Joined December 2012
Korea (South)1002 Posts
May 18 2018 07:20 GMT
#8
On May 18 2018 16:06 Waxangel wrote:
Maru says Rogue is good which is good enough for me


If Maru says so!
Celebrating Starcraft since... a long time ago.
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
May 18 2018 07:42 GMT
#9
On May 18 2018 16:09 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
We need Stuchiu to tell us why Maru's group nomination isn't the best ever, due to that one time where Mvp maneuvered perfect groups for himself and Nestea by playing 4D chess with everyone else's minds.

Mvp had to carry the magnets with players' name while he was missing half his spine and couldn't feel his hands. Have some respect.
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
May 18 2018 07:56 GMT
#10
On May 18 2018 16:42 Ej_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2018 16:09 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
We need Stuchiu to tell us why Maru's group nomination isn't the best ever, due to that one time where Mvp maneuvered perfect groups for himself and Nestea by playing 4D chess with everyone else's minds.

Mvp had to carry the magnets with players' name while he was missing half his spine and couldn't feel his hands. Have some respect.


Mvp was so injured he couldn't reach the names he wanted so his groups were always filled with randoms.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
zealotstim
Profile Joined February 2015
United States455 Posts
May 18 2018 08:21 GMT
#11
On May 18 2018 16:08 pvsnp wrote:
Hell, I just watched Rogue type out gg to Hurricane on stream, about two seconds ago. Maybe his ZvP is questionable too.


You have to remember though that Hurricane is a monster in non-live events, particularly non-competitive ones. He is notoriously held back by his nerves, but everyone really respects his skill.
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
May 18 2018 08:39 GMT
#12
Well, Rogue did end his stream by beating Major a few times, plus Gumiho (?) or at least some Terran playing a very strange Hellion opener into a Marine/Tank followup into full mech. So I guess his ZvT is not bad at the very least.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
deacon.frost
Profile Joined February 2013
Czech Republic12129 Posts
May 18 2018 08:42 GMT
#13
On May 18 2018 17:39 pvsnp wrote:
Well, Rogue did end his stream by beating Major a few times, plus Gumiho (?) or at least some Terran playing a very strange Hellion opener into a Marine/Tank followup into full mech. So I guess his ZvT is not bad at the very least.

And it's just a ladder. First of all - you won't show your builds on ladder and ... it's BO1 (OK, on that level it isn't BO1 per se as you can end up with a series, but you cannot plan the series ahead)
I imagine France should be able to take this unless Lilbow is busy practicing for Starcraft III. | KadaverBB is my fairy ban mother.
kajtarp
Profile Joined April 2011
Hungary474 Posts
May 18 2018 09:23 GMT
#14
On May 18 2018 15:57 pvsnp wrote:
Call me a skeptic, but I'm really not buying all the Rogue hype. Some people (cough cough Artosis) are way overestimating the guy considering his form since Katowice, the balance changes since, and the rest of his group. His last big achievement was back in March, which, to be fair, is more recent than any of his groupmates' trophies. That being said, neither ZvP nor ZvT is the same as it was back then, nor has Rogue shown any particular superiority since.

While losing to Dear is probably still off the cards, losing to either soO, or INnoVation, or both would hardly be an upset. Outside of a finals, I would never bet against soO in ZvZ, and Rogue fell 1-3 to Inno in the Super Tournament. While he did narrowly defeat Inno 3-2 at Hangzhou (after losing to Neeb) his reverse-sweep there mirrors the reverse-sweep he achieved against Maru at Katowice–that is, heavily dependent on roach-based allins. I'd hesitate to expect similar results again, especially with the recent Marauder buff. The guys on the Pylon Show might guarantee that he advances, but personally I'd question Rogue being much better than 50% against soO/Inno.

Most of that might sound patently ridiculous at first glance (it did to me while I was typing it) but the thing is, while soO and Inno have both shown big weaknesses as of late, neither of them are weak against Zerg. soO has been struggling in ZvT whereas Inno has been struggling in TvP. I'd agree that Rogue is probably a stronger overall player than soO and/or Inno, but that means jack shit when they square off head-to-head.

Add all that to the fact that Rogue has historically underperformed in GSL and I would not at all be surprised if he gets knocked out in the Ro16.


Outside of finals in the last tournaments in the past year soO already lost to Rogue and Dark 3 times outside finals. Plus in some IEM/GSL weekend tournament qualifiers to relative weaker players compared to Rogue and Dark. So his ZvZ superiority seems to be gone.

While he usually can hardly take a map against Inno. So i agree with Mizenhauer here, these group looks bad for soO. Not saying he can't advance, but he can get knocked out easily...
Why so serious?
kajtarp
Profile Joined April 2011
Hungary474 Posts
May 18 2018 09:25 GMT
#15
On May 18 2018 17:21 zealotstim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2018 16:08 pvsnp wrote:
Hell, I just watched Rogue type out gg to Hurricane on stream, about two seconds ago. Maybe his ZvP is questionable too.


You have to remember though that Hurricane is a monster in non-live events, particularly non-competitive ones. He is notoriously held back by his nerves, but everyone really respects his skill.


Sorry friend, but how a player handles pressure and the athmosphere of live events is part of the skill. A good horse delivers at the derby, not at the training.
Why so serious?
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
May 18 2018 09:26 GMT
#16
On May 18 2018 18:25 kajtarp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2018 17:21 zealotstim wrote:
On May 18 2018 16:08 pvsnp wrote:
Hell, I just watched Rogue type out gg to Hurricane on stream, about two seconds ago. Maybe his ZvP is questionable too.


You have to remember though that Hurricane is a monster in non-live events, particularly non-competitive ones. He is notoriously held back by his nerves, but everyone really respects his skill.


Sorry friend, but how a player handles pressure and the athmosphere of live events is part of the skill. A good horse delivers at the derby, not at the training.

Yeah whatever you say, but how the fuck does that relate to Hurricane being a good player on the ladder :D?
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16955 Posts
May 18 2018 09:29 GMT
#17
On May 18 2018 18:25 kajtarp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2018 17:21 zealotstim wrote:
On May 18 2018 16:08 pvsnp wrote:
Hell, I just watched Rogue type out gg to Hurricane on stream, about two seconds ago. Maybe his ZvP is questionable too.


You have to remember though that Hurricane is a monster in non-live events, particularly non-competitive ones. He is notoriously held back by his nerves, but everyone really respects his skill.


Sorry friend, but how a player handles pressure and the athmosphere of live events is part of the skill. A good horse delivers at the derby, not at the training.


I mean, sure? But it still contextualizes Rogue losing to him.
archondeliverer
Profile Joined May 2018
2 Posts
May 18 2018 09:32 GMT
#18
I reckon that Maru has 80% chance of going through, soO 50%, Dark 60% and Stats 60%. So would say A, D, C and C I guess?
DBooN
Profile Joined May 2011
Germany2727 Posts
May 18 2018 09:52 GMT
#19
On May 18 2018 14:31 Waxangel wrote:


Stats (#2 seed)
- Grade: F
- Actual result: Reached grand final (lost 2-4 to Maru)

As one of the Stats doubters at the time, I was inclined to agree with Mizenhauer's negativity. Stats was below 50% in PvP after the 4.0 patch, and he faced a ROUGH PvP group of sOs, Trap, and herO. At the same time, I also feel that the volatility of PvP means that there's a lower limit on how bad things can get. Think about it this way: when a weaker Protoss layer lands himself in a Protoss-heavy group, we always consider that a good thing for that player. I think a C grade was fair here.


Tbh I thought Stats got the F grade for literally killing Starcraft by creating an all Protoss group when it wasn't even in his best interest.
Olli
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Austria24417 Posts
May 18 2018 10:45 GMT
#20
Maru out to Zest, you read it here first.
Administrator"Declaring anything a disaster because aLive popped up out of nowhere is just downright silly."
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
May 18 2018 10:50 GMT
#21
On May 18 2018 19:45 Olli wrote:
Maru out to Zest, you read it here first.

yeah of course, nobody else would ever predict it past 2017
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
DBooN
Profile Joined May 2011
Germany2727 Posts
May 18 2018 11:21 GMT
#22
On May 18 2018 19:50 Ej_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2018 19:45 Olli wrote:
Maru out to Zest, you read it here first.

yeah of course, nobody else would ever predict it past 2017

I'd say them meeting is the boldest part of that prediction.
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
May 18 2018 16:37 GMT
#23
On May 18 2018 19:45 Olli wrote:
Maru out to Zest, you read it here first.


After they just buffed MARUders?
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
MrRee
Profile Joined November 2015
5 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-18 17:37:14
May 18 2018 17:33 GMT
#24
Sigh.

User was banned for this post.
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
May 18 2018 19:11 GMT
#25
I don't really buy the Rogue hype either. Artosis and noregret said there's no chance he doesn't get out the group which just seems like a coinflip.

If the Rogue that played at Katowice shows up, then he gets out the group for sure. But if the Rogue who played GSL s1, super tournament, hangzhou, or any of the online cups shows up, then he doesn't have a chance.

Literally everyone else in group B is inconsistant. Dear was great at katowice but looked lost in GSL last season. soO was on fire in GSL but played like trash at Katowice. Inno hasn't had a good showing since last year.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
May 18 2018 19:13 GMT
#26
Group A Maru should be the favourate with Solar second.

Group C is looking good for Dark and Classic. But Trap can easily get the upset. TY doesn't have much of a shot here.

Group D is easy for the protosses. Gumiho isn't great in TvP and ByuN isn't great in general.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
Ectar
Profile Joined April 2011
56 Posts
May 18 2018 19:30 GMT
#27
I really like these articles. Keep 'em up Mizenhauer
Charoisaur
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany15928 Posts
May 18 2018 19:43 GMT
#28
On May 18 2018 16:12 pvsnp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2018 16:06 Waxangel wrote:
Maru says Rogue is good which is good enough for me


Maru knows more than me about Rogue's form (duh), but I also have to conclude that Inno was picked last for a reason. The fact that sOs of all people didn't want to face him in the first match, despite PvT being what it is and sOs being who he is, raises my eyebrows. If Inno is really as washed up as they say, why would Maru waste his switch?

His so called "slump" is way overexaggerated anyways.
Every time Inno isn't dominating every tournament there is people start calling him washed up/slumping etc despite him still being one of the scariest players in the scene. Just look at this article - Mizen calls TY "more in-form" than Inno despite him not having better results at all. When Inno loses it just gets way more attention than when another player loses.

I wasn't surprised at all he was picked last.
Many of the coolest moments in sc2 happen due to worker harassment
The_Red_Viper
Profile Blog Joined August 2013
19533 Posts
May 18 2018 20:33 GMT
#29
On May 19 2018 04:43 Charoisaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2018 16:12 pvsnp wrote:
On May 18 2018 16:06 Waxangel wrote:
Maru says Rogue is good which is good enough for me


Maru knows more than me about Rogue's form (duh), but I also have to conclude that Inno was picked last for a reason. The fact that sOs of all people didn't want to face him in the first match, despite PvT being what it is and sOs being who he is, raises my eyebrows. If Inno is really as washed up as they say, why would Maru waste his switch?

His so called "slump" is way overexaggerated anyways.
Every time Inno isn't dominating every tournament there is people start calling him washed up/slumping etc despite him still being one of the scariest players in the scene. Just look at this article - Mizen calls TY "more in-form" than Inno despite him not having better results at all. When Inno loses it just gets way more attention than when another player loses.

I wasn't surprised at all he was picked last.


Eh he doesn't look like a title contender at all if you look at this:

http://aligulac.com/players/48/results/?after=2018-04-01&before=&event=&race=ptzr&country=KR&bestof=all&offline=both&game=all&wcs_season=&wcs_tier=&op=

Mediocre winrate despite farming players like Billowy, jypeng and january. Losing to creator and impact. He also has some decent wins in there but he doesn't look particularly scary.
He got picked last and that's telling us something for sure, but who knows if it's not mainly his name factor. Rogue iirc even said something like "his skills don't meet his name value". I think that's a fair assessment.
Outside the one loss to cure TY at least looked good in his gsl group and he recently won the meme tournament. Also because Maru's words are gospel atm, he highlighted TY's abilities

Though it doesn't really matter, both TY and Inno will lose their groups and Maru has to save terran once again
IU | Sohyang || There is no God and we are his prophets | For if ‘Thou mayest’—it is also true that ‘Thou mayest not.” | Ignorance is the parent of fear |
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-18 23:36:19
May 18 2018 21:44 GMT
#30
Looking back at the VOD, I think it's pretty obvious that Rogue and Inno were plotting something backstage. They were seated next to each other, kept whispering back and forth, and Rogue put his arm around Inno's shoulders like five times. Most if not all of these guys are friends, but there's "talking to a friend" and then there's "conspiring with a friend." Also when Dear wanted to pick Inno, he mentioned that Inno was going to choose Rogue, which Inno denied, but nobody believed him.

No idea why they wanted to be in the same group, but whatever they were thinking, it obviously paid off.




On May 19 2018 05:33 The_Red_Viper wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2018 04:43 Charoisaur wrote:
On May 18 2018 16:12 pvsnp wrote:
On May 18 2018 16:06 Waxangel wrote:
Maru says Rogue is good which is good enough for me


Maru knows more than me about Rogue's form (duh), but I also have to conclude that Inno was picked last for a reason. The fact that sOs of all people didn't want to face him in the first match, despite PvT being what it is and sOs being who he is, raises my eyebrows. If Inno is really as washed up as they say, why would Maru waste his switch?

His so called "slump" is way overexaggerated anyways.
Every time Inno isn't dominating every tournament there is people start calling him washed up/slumping etc despite him still being one of the scariest players in the scene. Just look at this article - Mizen calls TY "more in-form" than Inno despite him not having better results at all. When Inno loses it just gets way more attention than when another player loses.

I wasn't surprised at all he was picked last.


Eh he doesn't look like a title contender at all if you look at this:

http://aligulac.com/players/48/results/?after=2018-04-01&before=&event=&race=ptzr&country=KR&bestof=all&offline=both&game=all&wcs_season=&wcs_tier=&op=

Mediocre winrate despite farming players like Billowy, jypeng and january. Losing to creator and impact. He also has some decent wins in there but he doesn't look particularly scary.
He got picked last and that's telling us something for sure, but who knows if it's not mainly his name factor. Rogue iirc even said something like "his skills don't meet his name value". I think that's a fair assessment.
Outside the one loss to cure TY at least looked good in his gsl group and he recently won the meme tournament. Also because Maru's words are gospel atm, he highlighted TY's abilities

Though it doesn't really matter, both TY and Inno will lose their groups and Maru has to save terran once again


Nah, the Terran buff means that Maru's role in carrying Terran shrinks in proportion with the reduction of struggling Terrans. TY is kind of an unknown quantity atm. Tbh I'm kinda expecting a return to the normal HotS state of affairs where Maru and Inno pass the baton as Terran goes from weak to strong and back again.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-18 22:26:21
May 18 2018 22:26 GMT
#31
On May 19 2018 06:44 pvsnp wrote:Nah, the Terran buff means that Maru's role in carrying Terran shrinks in proportion with the reduction of struggling Terrans. TY is kind of an unknown quantity atm. Tbh I'm kinda expecting a return to the normal HotS state of affairs where Maru and Inno pass the baton as Terran goes from weak to strong and back again.

It's crazy just how much better Inno and Maru were than other terrans in HotS. Flash, TY, Dream, Cure, MMA, Bomber etc all had moments but never looked like real starleague contenders. Maru and Inno literally just took turns being the one and only king.

I'm really not sure how the marauder change will go down tbh. Maru could return to his ninja TvP being almost unbeatable. And anything could happen to TY and ByuN.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-18 23:15:54
May 18 2018 23:11 GMT
#32
On May 19 2018 07:26 Fango wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2018 06:44 pvsnp wrote:Nah, the Terran buff means that Maru's role in carrying Terran shrinks in proportion with the reduction of struggling Terrans. TY is kind of an unknown quantity atm. Tbh I'm kinda expecting a return to the normal HotS state of affairs where Maru and Inno pass the baton as Terran goes from weak to strong and back again.

It's crazy just how much better Inno and Maru were than other terrans in HotS. Flash, TY, Dream, Cure, MMA, Bomber etc all had moments but never looked like real starleague contenders. Maru and Inno literally just took turns being the one and only king.

I'm really not sure how the marauder change will go down tbh. Maru could return to his ninja TvP being almost unbeatable. And anything could happen to TY and ByuN.


Well this is just theorycrafting on my end, but I suspect that we will see a lot more Disruptors in PvT. The Marauder buff makes it so that Gateway armies can't trade evenly with bio anymore, which in turn means that Protoss needs to rely more on splash. Traditionally this was the Colossus, but since they are now much worse against Marauders and Vikings also got a small buff.....yeah. Storm is always a possibility, of course, but Ghosts are still a thing and Marauder-heavy comps aren't super scared of Storm either.

So that leaves us with Disruptors. And it's not just a process-of-elimination thing, GGemini mentioned on the most recent Pylon Show how he doesn't care about the Terran buffs since he always goes Disruptors, and even how he thinks they might get nerfed in the future because they are really good against Terran. At the pro level, I know herO has been experimenting with them, and in the foreign scene Harstem has too.

Not entirely sure how Terran will counter Disruptors–I think mass Liberators is the go-to right now, but Disruptors are typically paired with Stalkers, and I've seen the novas be used to chase bio away so the Stalkers can blink under and snipe Libs. That being said, I think Tank/Lib has a lot of zoning potential against Stalker/Disruptor, especially because using Disruptors precludes stuff like Chargelot/Archon that usually hard-counter Tanks.

Just speculation, of course.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-18 23:20:11
May 18 2018 23:19 GMT
#33
Part of me wants them to make collosus stronger. Having them two shot marines so easily but tickle marauders is weird. With stronger vikings I don't think terrans should struggle to deal with them as much. Although I'm biased because collosus snipes were the biggest kreygasm in sc2 for me.

I never liked watching disruptors. Although they made them better in 4.0 it the insta detonate.

Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
DubiousC2
Profile Joined June 2016
129 Posts
May 19 2018 00:56 GMT
#34
I keep wondering why so many of them feared Innovation so much.

Manner MULE /dance
Togekiss
Profile Joined January 2013
Canada154 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-19 01:33:29
May 19 2018 01:32 GMT
#35
Maru handled this like a true boss. Gave himself arguably the best group possible (avoiding Terrans all the while picking Solar, who he's been dominating lately as well as a few Toss who should roll over to Maruders?). The next part that impressed me was how all the JAGW players avoided the team kill. Even sOs being saved from INno by Maru in the end was just perfect!

Couldn't have written a better script myself, and this might make for the best ro16 in years as a Jin Air fanboy!

Additionally I am really pleased that every group somehow managed to get a decent racial distribution (unlike last season was it?) as well as at least one Terran player!!
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33360 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-19 02:05:50
May 19 2018 02:05 GMT
#36
Honestly, I'm not sure how much of it Maru planned, and how much of it was him getting advice from ppl on how to use his power. Solar seemed suuupper on board with the strategy of accepting Maru as the prohibitive favorite in Group A, as long as he gets to play two scrubs for second place. Once he was okay with that, it seemed like Solar was directing traffic in Group A,
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
Rolltide
Profile Joined May 2017
United States447 Posts
May 20 2018 03:27 GMT
#37
If SoO makes it gives him his props. He is in big trouble having Rogue and Inno in that group. Dear is no pushover either.

In case some might not have noticed Rogue has been dominant lately. Has won all 4 of his matches in GSL so far and destroyed the field in the latest Kung Fu cup where he beat Dark 3-0. Who beats Dark 3-0?
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-20 05:01:12
May 20 2018 04:59 GMT
#38
soO has a solid chance against everyone in SC2 except Inno/TY/Maru. Rogue is a threat if he shows up, but even then soO should feel confident. Rogue loses a lot of ZvZ to people he shouldn't.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
TelecoM
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States10671 Posts
May 20 2018 05:07 GMT
#39
Stats is such a boss.. my favorite SC2 Protoss!
AKA: TelecoM[WHITE] Protoss fighting
Charoisaur
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany15928 Posts
May 20 2018 09:46 GMT
#40
On May 20 2018 12:27 Rolltide wrote:
If SoO makes it gives him his props. He is in big trouble having Rogue and Inno in that group. Dear is no pushover either.

In case some might not have noticed Rogue has been dominant lately. Has won all 4 of his matches in GSL so far and destroyed the field in the latest Kung Fu cup where he beat Dark 3-0. Who beats Dark 3-0?

Nah, he's an inconsistent Patchzerg because he lost to Scarlett that one time after taking a break from sc2 /s
Many of the coolest moments in sc2 happen due to worker harassment
DSK
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
England1110 Posts
May 20 2018 10:21 GMT
#41
On May 18 2018 19:45 Olli wrote:
Maru out to Zest, you read it here first.


Uh, guys? Olli's been sniffing bath salts again!.
**@ YT: SC2POVs at https://www.youtube.com/c/SC2POVsTV | https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/SC2POVs @**
EzioAs
Profile Joined September 2017
235 Posts
May 20 2018 12:17 GMT
#42
I partially agree with Olli, Zest beats Maru in the winner's match. Then Maru dominates Solar in the final match.
花は桜木人は武士
MrWayne
Profile Joined December 2016
219 Posts
May 20 2018 12:26 GMT
#43
I'm really hoping for more than 1 Terran in the round of 8. This better be good!
neutralrobot
Profile Joined July 2011
Australia1025 Posts
May 21 2018 13:41 GMT
#44
On May 20 2018 21:17 EzioAs wrote:
I partially agree with Olli, Zest beats Maru in the winner's match. Then Maru dominates Solar in the final match.


Maru is only going to practice for protoss matches. Solar is the only one in the group who has even the slightest chance in hell against him because of this. It's the same advantage Zanster had. Actually, I take it back. He might only practice for Zest and lose to Patience because of it. But I think if there's one player in the group he won't lose to, it's Zest. That's the only player he might take at all seriously.
Maru | Life | PartinG || I guess I like aggressive control freaks... || Reynor will one day reign supreme || *reyn supreme
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
May 21 2018 13:53 GMT
#45
This group is so easy that Maru is going to practice only TvT for INnoVation, ey?
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
Olli
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Austria24417 Posts
May 21 2018 18:38 GMT
#46
I was mostly joking, but I can see it happen. Zest is very good online right now, if that translates to offline performance then he can beat Maru.
Administrator"Declaring anything a disaster because aLive popped up out of nowhere is just downright silly."
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-21 21:32:54
May 21 2018 21:32 GMT
#47
On May 22 2018 03:38 Olli wrote:
Zest is very good online right now, if that translates to offline performance then he can beat Maru.

I feel like this has been consistently said for the past year.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
May 21 2018 22:41 GMT
#48
On May 22 2018 06:32 Fango wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2018 03:38 Olli wrote:
Zest is very good online right now, if that translates to offline performance then he can beat Maru.

I feel like this has been consistently said for the past year.


Probably because that's exactly what people have been saying for the past year.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
Olli
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Austria24417 Posts
May 22 2018 07:31 GMT
#49
On May 22 2018 07:41 pvsnp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2018 06:32 Fango wrote:
On May 22 2018 03:38 Olli wrote:
Zest is very good online right now, if that translates to offline performance then he can beat Maru.

I feel like this has been consistently said for the past year.


Probably because that's exactly what people have been saying for the past year.


Yes, but he kept getting eliminated by Zergs who everyone knew he was bad against even online. There's no distinct weakness like that now.
Administrator"Declaring anything a disaster because aLive popped up out of nowhere is just downright silly."
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
May 22 2018 08:07 GMT
#50
On May 22 2018 16:31 Olli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2018 07:41 pvsnp wrote:
On May 22 2018 06:32 Fango wrote:
On May 22 2018 03:38 Olli wrote:
Zest is very good online right now, if that translates to offline performance then he can beat Maru.

I feel like this has been consistently said for the past year.


Probably because that's exactly what people have been saying for the past year.


Yes, but he kept getting eliminated by Zergs who everyone knew he was bad against even online. There's no distinct weakness like that now.

To an extent yeah. But his form online > offline was still significant in the other matchups. He frequently beats herO online for example yet managed to get sweeped by him two supertournaments in a row.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
madiha
Profile Joined May 2018
1 Post
Last Edited: 2018-05-22 08:47:53
May 22 2018 08:47 GMT
#51
--- Nuked ---
EzioAs
Profile Joined September 2017
235 Posts
May 22 2018 10:04 GMT
#52
On May 21 2018 22:41 neutralrobot wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 20 2018 21:17 EzioAs wrote:
I partially agree with Olli, Zest beats Maru in the winner's match. Then Maru dominates Solar in the final match.


Maru is only going to practice for protoss matches. Solar is the only one in the group who has even the slightest chance in hell against him because of this. It's the same advantage Zanster had. Actually, I take it back. He might only practice for Zest and lose to Patience because of it. But I think if there's one player in the group he won't lose to, it's Zest. That's the only player he might take at all seriously.


Solar has a terrible record against Maru. I love the guy, but I don't see him taking out Maru. Then again, it's a Bo3, so higher probability for upsets.

As for Zest, provided he has a great practice partner and practices, I can definitely see a him winning against Maru.
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