SSL Winners' Round 3

While we're not even halfway through the Round of 32 in GSL Code S, the rapid progress that's being made in the SSL has maybe gone under the radar. We're already down to our final eight players, with both winners tonight cementing their spots in the top three of the season. The changes to the Global Finals qualification system mean that starleague season winners earn a direct seed, while the losing finalists have a chance to win bonus points in the SSL / GSL cross-finals. With the current lack of information concerning opportunities to earn points outside the four starleagues (and the one KeSPA Cup that's been announced), there's therefore a very real chance that by the end of tonight, the winners will have taken a major step towards Anaheim, and as such, things are about to get very serious indeed. So if you're a zerg fan feeling salty after the Swarm's failure so far in GSL (3-14 combined map score in non-mirrors), it's time to come and reacquaint yourselves with the players you might be cheering for.




Stats against fellow Koreans in Legacy of the Void:
RagnaroK vZ 15-20 (43%) in maps & 7-8 (47%) in series; last ZvZ match: 1-0 vs DeParture
Solar vZ 53-33 (62%) in maps & 21-10 (68%) in series; last ZvZ match: 0-1 vs ByuL

Of all the players featured in the semifinals of StarLeague, RagnaroK is probably the guy no one really expected there, while his opponent Solar is the player everyone bet on to make a deep run. The Samsung player, who started out so well in Legacy of the Void, has been able to keep the hype train going and gather up more and more momentum through his two ZvZ wins so far in this tournament.

After he beat Soulkey in the first round, he was able to defeat his next opponents’ colleague ByuL decisively. Indeed, he hasn’t lost a single map in this season of StarLeague yet, sitting on a solid 5-0 ZvZ record. RagnaroK started off the season with a blast, upsetting the heavy favourite INnoVation with his crisp aggression builds. It got even better though, when the CJ zerg went on to derail the ByuN hype train and send him straight into the losers bracket as well, securing for himself his first semifinal spot in a Korean league.

Now both of them do have some speed behind them in ZvZ, showing solid performances in a rather unstable match-up. Until his loss to ByuL in Proleague this week, Solar was undefeated in the mirror match-up in 2016, while RagnaroK is currently on a four win streak stretching back to the SSL qualifiers. All in all, both seem to be in great shape in the competition so far, and indeed, a glance at their respective records outside the SSL suggests that this particular league might be their main focus for now. RagnaroK is currently out of the GSL, while Solar's group won't be played for a couple weeks yet.

Everyone probably agrees with Solar taking the role as the favourite in this duel. The Samsung zerg has proven his shape time and time again in Legacy, keeping up his steamrolling form for three to four months now—he’s been pretty unstoppable (E/N: outside of his personal hell that is Proleague, that is). His flexibility is probably a huge part of the success. You might fool Solar once, but it shouldn’t work a second time. Likewise though, RagnaroK has really been living up to his name so far—referencing the fall of the gods in Nordic mythology—beating players he was a heavy underdog against. From what we’ve seen the role suits him perfectly fine, giving him room to do aggressive builds and claim the initiative to act, instead of reacting to what hisopponent does. When you let RagnaroK take control, you’re in for a bad time. Taking the initiative from him however has so far proven the most effective way of dealing with this young CJ zerg, who is looking for his first Korean title and is felling titans left and right.

Predictions

RagnaroK 1 - 3 Solar




This semifinal pits two players who shared a pretty similar fate throughout much of HotS, enjoying steady progress in their careers but never quite reaching their full potential, always finding themselves taking second place in tournaments or to their team mates in Proleague. Now they face off in Legacy in what will be a battle to change their fates and conquer the new expansion.

Dark has shown made steady progress in his career ever since joining SKT1. 2014 was the first year where he started regularly appearing in premier tournaments, reaching the Ro.32 of GSL twice and even making one Ro.16 appearance. 2015 however was his breakout year, where he made several deep runs in tournaments, including a semifinal defeat to Trap at IEM Katowice and two KeSPA Cup silvers. So far it looks like this steady upward trend is set to continue as Dark has already made a Starleague semi-final and with some preparation and luck could advance even deeper.

Historically Dark’s weakest matchup has been ZvP at 53%. However, while the protoss matchup was certainly a weakness in HotS, in Legacy Dark seems to have adapted quite well. He's recently beaten MyuNgSiK, Seed and Super, as well as delivering a shocking 3-0 stomp against his teammate Classic. Stylistically, Dark has favored macro play in the past, electing to survive to the late game and let his mechanics carry him to victory. However in Legacy he has spiced up his play, electing to go for a lot more cheeses and early timings in the hope of catching his opponents off balance while he techs to the late game. Against Seed, he utilised a ruthless nydus attack that simply overwhelmed his opponent, while Classic had no answers to his lurker-heavy composition.

The only recent loss Dark has received in the matchup is from Stat's own teammate—KT’s powerhouse Zest. Dark did lose to Stats in early LoTV; however that match happened nearly two months ago. If Dark plays his cards right he'll be left with a ZvZ as the only obstacle left to surmount on his path to the finals, and potentially the first gold of his career.

Stats’ career trajectory has been remarkably similar to Dark’s. In 2014 he also became a regular in the Ro.32 of GSL. In 2015 he started making deeper runs in Korean leagues, reaching back to back Ro.4’s in the SSL.

However that’s where the similarities end. While Dark was a relatively consistent player throughout 2015 (finishing in the bottom 16 of Code S / SSL in all six seasons, while performing admirably in weekenders), Stats is a player who tends to blow hot and cold. His 2015 was a case in point, and the vast difference between the two halves of the year for him was perplexing to watch. In HotS Stats was a solid PvZ player, with a 61% win rate in the match-up with wins against great ZvPers such as Solar, soO, Leenock and Life. However, Legacy dealt a serious blow to his PvZ. He is now struggling to find his footing in the new matchup, with his only recent win being a quick 1-0 against an ailing Rogue in Proleague. Earlier this year he lost in Code A against DeParture 3-1, and his only other exploits were against Symbol and Dark in the GSL qualifiers nearly 2 months ago.

So far Stats has elected to play a pretty standard phoenix into zealot/immortal archon style. However against an opponent as ruthless as Dark, that may not be enough. Stats’ best shot would be to thoroughly analyze Dark’s play, find counters to his early nydus aggression and late game lurker play, while also engineering some timings of his own to catch the SKT Zerg off guard.

Prediction

Overall I’ll give Dark the lead. He has adapted a lot better than Stats to the new meta, he has a diverse playbook of strategies and is backed up by strong mechanics. Stats at the moment seems lost in PvZ , the vast bag of tricks he had in HotS is now gone and so far he doesn’t seem to have made any significant strides in figuring out the new expansion or at least the new matchup.

Dark 3 - 0 Stats