WCS Season Two
Challenger League

WCS EU CL Day 3
Happy vs MarineLorD
ForGG vs SouL
TargA vs elfi
MorroW vs Petraeus
Serral vs Harstem

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

by munch, Destructicon, Shantjel, XXTN, lichter

Happy vs MarineLorD

There’s probably no terran in the world more delighted with the swarm host nerf than Happy. In TvZ, his plodding, methodical mech style used to be the unstoppable force to the immovable object that the EU turtle zergs presented. With the recent patch though, that barrier has been removed. In the recent season of the Fragbite Masters, his mech onslaught brought FireCake, the incumbent king of obnoxious swarm host play, to his knees. FireCake was so angered by the changes to his beloved unit that he went AFK; undeterred, Happy began merrily inching his siege line forward piece by piece against the 0 APM zerg.

That match was probably the best summary of the type of player Happy is. He values safety beyond every other attribute; never wavering from his gameplan; never allowing fickle emotions to distract from his final goal. In the terran mirror, he’s tended towards the time old staple of marine-tank. It’s difficult to know where his skill lies at the moment; his 14-13 record in TvT in 2015 is greatly influenced by his 0-9 record against Bunny. Much like his other matchups, it seems likely that Happy is more than competent enough to deal with players below his skill level, while never really troubling those with higher aspirations either.

On the other end of the scale from the Russian veteran is the French upstart MarineLorD. He was unfortunate last time round to draw his teammate ForGG in Challenger league—the king of European TvT, and was edged out in a tight 2-3 defeat. Their game on King Sejong Station was especially noteworthy—a crazy game of non-stop aggression. Hellion runbys roasted SCV lines again and again, while banshees rained down fire from the skies, as neither player seemed to want to defend. It’s likely that MarineLord will be coming back for another go much the better for his trial by fire last season. The current TvT meta favours aggression above all else, and the passive style that Happy favours is running out of steam. It’ll take a huge effort to displace a player who’s reached Premier league in 7/7 seasons so far since 2013, but I think the young Frenchman has what it takes.

Prediction:
Happy 2 – 3 MarineLorD

ForGG vs souL

ForGG's victory at Dreamhack Winter 2014 was his crowning achievement in SC2, a nod to his skills and ability to climb back to the heights that saw him win a MSL in Brood War against the best Zerg of the era. One thing that wasn't certain however was ForGG's ability to replicate his success; would Dreamhack remain his one and only triumph or would many more follow? The answer so far has been disappointing: ForGG lost in the Ro8 of IEM San Jose to Rain, lost in the IEM Taipei group stage, and his run in WCS EU was cut short in the Ro8 by Polt. Apart from that he has been relatively quiet, not participating in as many other online cups and qualifiers as his peers. While no one can doubt his skill, he just seems to get stuck in the last few steps before a great win, and he works better when no one is expecting him to win. However he isn't facing a world class opponent here, as ForGG drew his best match up against souL. Despite being inflated from farming EU terrans, it still sits at a ridiculous 70% record.

From the little data that I can piece together it appears that souL is an up and coming Polish Terran. He first made his presence known in 2013 via go4sc2 online cups and becoming a regular. He has also tried his hand several times at the WCS EU qualifiers, to no avail. However each time souL tried he got a little better and managed to push on a little deeper. He stuck to his guns and continued to play in as many cups and qualifiers as possible. Now two years later his diligence has finally been rewarded, after 3 grueling tries he managed to find a good path through the qualifiers. It is a monumental achievement for the up and comer. However, as is often the case, he will now have his hopes bashed against the rocks by Europe's foremost TvT expert. A look at his records reveals that souL's MU results are average, hovering just above 50%. Unfortunately he often has trouble defeating the best players in Europe and always gets rolled by Koreans. It is impressive he has gotten this far, but unfortunately this is where his journey ends. Perhaps with more practice and maybe a better challenger opponent he could qualify in the future.

Prediction:
ForGG 3 - 0 souL

TargA vs elfi

In 2012, TargA decided to return from Australia to focus more on his progaming career. The moment he left the Land Down Under and started attending big international tournaments, he made himself known by achieving several impressive results including one DreamHack semifinal. His form continued into the 2013, when he, after being knocked out of Challenger in WCS Season 2, made a big splash by getting to the Ro8 in Season 3. Since then, he has always been lurking on the border of Premier League, alternating between Challenger and Ro32. Though always participating in tournaments and staying present in the foreign scene as one of European players to watch out for, he never really managed to reach past laurels. After another Ro32 finish in the previous WCS season, TargA really wants to break past his own personal glass ceiling.

Having the lowest seed of the Premier League players, TargA got the opponent other players did not want to meet in Challenger for one reason or another – Finland's own elfi. Though elfi had some noticeable finishes at DreamHacks and IEM's, his WCS results are somewhat lacking. His Premier League performances are actually limited to a single Ro32 in 2013. Unfortunately for him, 2015 did not start well in terms of boosting his WCS results as he failed to qualify for Season 1. He finally managed to claw his way into the Challenger League in the current season, beating DeMusliM in a final match to secure his spot.

Among the fans and casters, elfi is best known by three things: his surprisingly low APM, which Apollo once jokingly described as being on the level of a League of Legends player, his very aggressive playstyle, and his mastery at PvP. Unfortunately for the Finn, he is currently facing a zerg, his weakest matchup on paper. Even so, he looks very confident in the upcoming match, and he has every reason to be. Though he and TargA have not faced each other many times, elfi is leading in wins 4 – 1. As an additional moral boost, elfi walked over the Norwegian during the recent Copenhagen Games, beating him 2 - 0.

Even so, we must not forget that TargA's recent ZvP is pretty decent, sitting at a solid 63.16 %. He is generally a more macro-oriented player that used to count on swarm hosts quite often when things got sour. However, in the new patch, this unit's role has been changed dramatically and consequently the race towards swarm hosts is not a go-to option anymore. Therefore, I feel the result of the match hangs largely on whether TargA has found a way to adapt to the new meta, or if he is going to crumble once more under elfi's notorious aggression.

Prediction:
TargA 3 – 2 elfi

MorroW vs Petraeus

The Swedish veteran MorroW has been a household name in the European scene for years. He has been around since the start of Wings and was once one of the most feared players in Europe during his tenure on Mousesports. However, it has been a long time since MorroW won his first and only premiere title way back in 2010 at IEM Cologne. Trapped in Challenger League for the first two seasons of 2014, Morrow finally qualified for Premier, only to fall in the first group stage. While his good form carried him to a second consecutive PL appearance in WCS S1, MorroW was once again eliminated in the Ro32. Since then, the Swedish Terran has been quite successfully making a living off online cups. Not only has MorroW gone 6/7 in ranked TvZ this month, but he also has more experience on the big stage compared to the young Petraeus. Look for MorroW to be aggressive right out of the gate. He excels at seizing early map control and finding gaps in his opponent's defenses. In addition, his knack for reading his opponents will shine through in a Bo5. The longer a series drags on, the better MorroW becomes at reading and adapting to his opponent’s play.

A talented Zerg who has had trouble qualifying for WCS in the past, mYi.Petraeus will finally make his WCS debut in CL tonight. He beat players like sLivko, Eiki, and Verdi in the “Last Chance Qualifier” en route to securing a Challenger match. At just 18 years of age, Petraeus has the potential to develop into a top foreigner and stay in WCS for many seasons to come. After his top 16 finish at MLG Anaheim and top 8 finish in Battlegrounds Detroit, Petraeus caught the attention of mYi, and was quickly snatched up by the team earlier this year. Much like his opponent, Petraeus plays mostly in online cups, specializing in Sea Masters Cup with around 20 top-3 finishes. Since March, the New Zealander has won an impressive 71.1% of his ranked matches. A real ladder hero, Petraeus knows every terran trick in the book; he knows where all the good proxy spots are and exactly how to deal with most timing attacks. With excellent crisis management skills, Petraeus rarely panics when he sees terrans invading his creep. He will bide his time and take the engagement on his terms. Petraeus has also favored swarm hosts in past games, and it will be interesting to see if the new patch will have any affects on his late game unit composition. While his standard ZvT is solid, this mYi Zerg is also not afraid to mix in a few roach/hydra timings to catch his opponent off guard. Don’t be surprised if he changes styles at some point in a Bo5 series. This kid is getting better and better with each passing day, and his odds of making it to Premier are looking good.

Prediction:
MorroW 1 - Petraeus 3

Serral vs Harstem

There was a time at the end of 2014 when Harstem finally looked like he was about to break into the ranks of Europe's best protoss. He had just reached the Ro16 in WCS EU S3, and he acquitted himself well at Homestory Cup as both player and caster. While his results weren't overly impressive, those who watched him saw the same type of swagger in his play bolstered by a new cleanliness and attention to detail. Finally, 2015 was finally going to be the #yearofHarstem.

Then, Serral obliterated him 3-0. The propsed #yearofHarstem began with a bang, but the fireworks went off in the wrong direction. It was a bitter pill to swallow for the Dutch protoss, yet it appears as though he has been practicing the matchup. He has won 7 straight Bo3+s in PvZ, while his record since his loss to Serral has improved by 5% to 61.76%. He is one of the few European protoss who have a good grasp of protoss late game, and he was not afraid to get there even against the old swarmhosts. The patch could be one of the reasons for Hartsem's improvement in the matchup, but he'll have to survive the mid-game onslaught if he wants to make the most of his flexibility in the late game.

For his part, Serral made the most of his Premier League berth. He swept his Ro32 group over Suppy and NaNiwa, and he came agonizingly close to reaching the Ro8 in a 1-2 loss against TLO. The Finnish zerg has long been tipped to become one of the best zergs on the continent, and he took a moderate step in the right direction in season 1. Unfortunately, that result barely moved him up the European ladder of zergs. Competing against the likes of Snute, FireCake, and TLO, Serral had to do more than play well in order to put his name in lights. Season 1 was always likely to be the "easiest" season as the shuffle resulted in a few surprises and the smallest number of Koreans since early 2013, so it was the Finn's best chance to reach the knockout stages of a premier tournament for the first time in his career.

Aware of the importance of staying in Premier League, Serral has gone with the "safe" choice. while ZvP remains his weakest matchup, he has improved by leaps and bounds over the past few months. Aside from his 3-0 bashing of Harstem, Serral also swatted away NaNiwa in Premier League last season. He has even scored a series victory against Rain (2-0, 1-2). However, Serral has still shown a weakness against wackier styles of protoss, abused most in Bo1s. His work still isn't spotless, though his switches between roaches and mutas are among the best in Europe.

If Harstem wants to reverse his sweep last season, his best shot at beating Serral is patterning his play after Welmu. The Finnish protoss is 6-3 against Serral in 2015, the only protoss to have a positive record against Serral over the past few months. A powerful all in and a greedy opening should be among Harstem's recipes for this match, but Serral's rise should continue after a close series.

Serral 3 - 2 Harstem

Writers: munch, Destructicon, Shantjel, XXTN, lichter.
Editors: lichter.
Graphics: v1.
Stats: Aligulac