EPTWCS America 2014
Premier League
Ro16 Group A Preview
HyuN, puCK, Heart, Oz
Ro16 Group B Preview
Alicia, Neeb, HuK, Revival
Brackets and standings on Liquipedia
VODs on Youtube
Ro16: Day One Preview
WCS America has passed hands from NASL to ESL, and finally we're ready go begin the Ro16 after a lengthy break. Sixteen players are gathered in Cologne for the Ro16, of whom eight will remain to play in final, single elimination bracket. After a shocking first group stage in which fan favorites such as Jaedong, HerO, and Scarlett were beaten by lesser known players it will be interesting to see if WCS America has more upsets in store. The first day of games features Group A and Group B.
Ro16 Group A: HyuN, puCK, Heart, Oz
by DarkhorseThe odds on favorite to win the group is most likely
ROCCAT.HyuN, and with good reason. Recently he has fought his way through the IEM World Championship Open Bracket and nearly knocked out the eventual finalist herO, losing in the round of 16 by a 2-3 score. Combine that with a recent finals appearance at Seatstory Cup and it is easy to see why Hyun seems likely to advance here. He has no clear weakness as all of his matchups hover around 66% in winrate. Hyun's first match is a ZvP against the American Protoss puCK, a matchup in which he has a 19-6 record over the month of March. After the failure of the Bounty Hunters to qualify for the Acer Teamstory Cup, Hyun will be on the hunt for some more foreign money and to make his first quarterfinals in WCS.
IvD.puCK comes in as a significant underdog in the otherwise all Korean group. However there is some room for optimism for puCK fans. PvZ is statistically his best matchup, and he notably defeated Sen in the Round of 32 to advance to the second group stage. In addition, puCK has played Hyun in WCS twice and has defeated him both times by a score of 2-1. puCK plays a generally two-base style with aggressive tactics through several different tech paths, and Hyun is sometimes susceptible to such early aggression because of his tendency to over-drone early on in the game in order to set up his powerful macro later on. The American Protoss has his work cut out for him, but he displayed solid form in all three matchups earlier in the tournament so it is not completely ridiculous to hope for a foreigner advancement here. Axiom's
Heart comes into the group with his current form being a bit of a mystery having played no official tournament games in the month of March. What we do know is that Heart played some incredible TvZ in the round of 32, and he has possibly the best chance to beat Hyun. With no recent data on Heart's TvP it is hard to guess how he will fare against Oz or puCK. Unfortunately for Heart he played a very aggressive and cheesy style of TvP in WoL, a style that was drastically weakened by Heart of the Swarm's mothership core. However his strong play in the Ro32 where he defeated both Scarlett and Toodming suggests that he is another potential favorite for advancement here.The teamless Protoss player
Oz comes in as the final player in the group. Much like his first round opponent Heart, Oz has had a fairly quiet month following his advancement from the round of 32. His only major tournament appearance was a 1-3 loss to the eventual champion sOs at the IEM World Championships in Katowice. In the Ro32 of WCS America, Oz demonstrated an ability to beat Mutalisks in his two wins against Nestea, but looked outmatched overall against Alicia in PvP, a matchup in which he has struggled to find consistency for a long period of time. Oz's only recent PvT was a 0-2 loss to MajOr in the Vasacast invitational. None of this bodes particularly well for Oz in this group, but there are a few other things that need to be considered. In the previous season of WCS America Oz quietly secured himself a top 4 finish and was just barely knocked out 2-3 by Polt. At the Season 3 Finals, Oz managed to defeat the WCS KR champion and reigning "world's best Protoss" Dear 2-1. Oz has shown in the past that he is able to pull off huge surprise wins at the important offline events, and his experience in these situations gives him an edge over all of the other players in his group. Oz has fallen on tough times as one of the EG outcasts, but a second consecutive run into the Ro8 of WCS America can only improve his prospects of finding a new team.
Predictions!
Hyun strikes me as the most well rounded of the four players in the group. The battle for second place will most likely fall to the match between Heart and Oz, in which anything can really happen. I am picking Oz to advance because of his aforementioned experience as well a the fact that Heart hasn't won a TvP bo3 against a Korean player since August, 2013.
Hyun > puCK
Heart < Oz
Hyun > Oz
puCK < Heart
Heart < Oz
Hyun and Oz advance.
Ro16 Group B: Alicia, Neeb, HuK, Revival
by peanutsfanthe middle of 2012,
AX.Alicia found himself becoming the next MarineKing. With three back to back 2nd place finishes, the Korean Protoss was looking solid, often drawing out championship series to the last game, with a solid mix of macro and cheese. As 2012 dragged on and turned into 2013 however, it seemed like Alicia's chance of finally winning a gold to accompany his silvers was growing slim. Save for a Ro4 appearance at ASUS ROG Summer in 2013, Alicia has yet to approach his 2012 summer brilliance. That being said, Alicia is looking strong in WCS America. In the Ro32, he advanced through his group 4-0, looking to be a level above DesRow and Oz. Other than that he has few recorded matches in recent months, making it hard to say how he will fare against the tougher opponents in the Ro16 (he hasn't even showed us a single game post-patch). If the Alicia who was a workhorse for Axiom in ATC and GSTL can show up, then he has every chance to make it to the Ro8.
One look at his Aligulac graph is enough to tell the story of
EG.HuK. After an incredible rise and streak of dominance in 2011 into 2012, HuK went into free fall in early 2013. Since then, Canada’s favorite Protoss has fought tooth and nail to climb back up the rankings and to try and regain his former place at the top of the foreign scene. Though he might not have reached that point yet, HuK has developed a broader base of strategies and has at least established himself as a top NA player.Unfortunately, this overall improvement has yet to materialize into anything substantial. HuK’s 2013 was marked mostly by Ro32 and Ro16 finishes. His 2014 may prove to be better. HuK started off the year strong with a 4th place finish in the Ender’s Game Tournament. That may not be the most meaningful result as goes up against international powerhouses in WCS America. But combined with wins over HerO and XiGua in the Ro32, it's definitely something he can build on.
CMStorm.Revival easily had his best year in 2013. Formerly only a champion of online events, Revival finally found himself placing high in live events. Picked up by EG following the dissolution of TSL, Revival opened the year strong with a 2nd place finish at WCS AM S1. After winning the championship at IEM Shanghai, it seemed the only way to go was up. Sadly, things took a turn for the worst. Revival's good form did not last the year, and he found himself finishing Proleague with a win-rate hovering around 33%.Since his departure from EG and subsequent pickup by CM Storm, we’ve seen little of Revival so far this year, save for an impressive bout against Jjakji at IEM Katowice (a 2-3 loss). Going forward, it will be interesting to see whether or not he’s finally found some much needed consistency, or if he’s staying with his back and forth ways.
As a 16 year old American Terran that isn’t Xenocider,
Fnatic.Neeb is definitely the dark horse of the group. A constant presence in WCS America, Neeb is a player who has been searching for his breakout performance since initially qualifying for Challenger in 2013 Season 1. The pattern so far has been to falter in the Premier League Ro32 and get eliminated, only to re-qualify with a strong performance in Challenger League.This season marks the first time that Neeb has made it into the Ro16, taking second place in his Ro32 group. After a maturation period, the young Terran is beginning to show strong promise. In his group, he showed a strong macro style of play, easily taking down Minigun, as well as managing to take a nail biting game off of Polt and finally picking Illusion apart in a well orchestrated TvT. For American StarCraft fans looking for someone new to root for, look no further than Neeb.
Predictions:
Neeb finds himself with quite the challenge in the first match of the group. Though he showed impressive TvP against Minigun, Alicia is an entirely different caliber of player. In addition, Alicia’s PvT rating is at an all time high. HuK and Revival will be an interesting match. As previously noted, Revival is a highly inconsistent player, he almost outplayed Europe's most fearsome Terran player in jjakji at IEM, only to throw the game by running twenty mutas into mines. He was almost knocked out of the Ro32 of WCS America entirely, but was saved by a throw of epic proportions from ByuL. HuK is playing the best Starcraft of his career, and he could beat Revival if he is having an off night.
As much as I would love to see Neeb advance and fly the flag for American players, the odds just seem stacked against him. Unfortunately, the only way I see him winning is to play HuK and Revival (As TvZ is his best matchup).
Alicia > Neeb
HuK < Revival
Alicia > Revival
HuK > Neeb
HuK < Revival
Alicia and Revival advance.
