EPTRo16: Group C Preview
Welmu, BabyKnight, 
TLO, StarDust: by Waxangel
Two Terrans and two Zergs have earned spots in the quarterfinals so far. Now, it's time to see how many Protoss players can force themselves into the title picture.
With three Protoss players competing in Group C, we're guaranteed at least one Protoss quarterfinalist. Whether or not that number will increase to two depends on the lone Zerg of the group in
Liquid`TLO. The German Zerg player has been a part of the recent European revival movement, doing his part by eliminating Bomber from IEM Sao Paulo and defeating jjakji in the 3rd place match of SeatStory Cup. It's clear that TLO's ZvT is at a very high level, and all the Terran players left in WCS Europe have reason to fear him. However, it's his ZvP that will have to carry him through this Ro16 group.TLO's ZvP seems quite strong when he's allowed to play longer, macro games. It's also the match up where we see TLO use his creative (there are few surer ways to annoy TLO than to blindly call anything he does "creative") strategies the most, and he's sure to have at least one or two prepared for this all Protoss group. However, I'm not quite sure about how well TLO will be able to hold off Protoss all-ins. While he's not terribly weak against them, his defenses don't seem particularly airtight either. All three of the Protoss players possess excellent micro and can execute all-ins extremely well. That's not good for TLO.
mYI.StarDust, another creative player, will be TLO's initial opponent. StarDust first came to prominence in Europe by using an upgrade-heavy, gateway united oriented PvZ that no one had seen before to win DreamHack Summer. Since then, he's continued to enjoy trying all sorts of all-ins and off-kilter strategies that might catch his opponents off guard. You only need to look at the last few PvZ strats he used at the Vasacast tournamentto get a feel for what he's going to do against TLO: 2base voidrays, 7gate +1 all-in, immortal all-in, immortal all-in, immortal all-in.Against his fellow Protoss players, StarDust might feel confident as he has a PvP win-rate close to 70% in recent months. However, PvP form has always been capricious thing. Even if a player figures PvP out and wins at a significantly higher rate than his peers for a period, it usually doesn't take long for adapting players and changing trends to bring him back down to earth. StarDust's 1-2 loss to BlinG in the Ro32 might have triggered a fall back into the realm of coin flips.
Mill.BabyKnight could hope that PvP luck, condition, momentum, or dare we say it – skill – is on his side. After becoming somewhat forgotten in a packed field of European players, he's come back to our attention in 2014 through a few PvP series. He tried to rally foreign hope at ASUS ROG Winter with a 3-0 win over Alicia (as a testament to the match-up, he would lose 0-3 in the rematch), while his 2-1 win over French Protoss Lilbow granted him a return to the WCS Europe Ro16 (a win vs ForGG didn't hurt either). A lack of recent tournament matches leaves BabyKnight more shrouded than the other players headed into the group, which may work to his advantage.On the other hand, his initial opponent
NrS.Welmu comes in with a headline grabbing performance. Representing team NewRoSoft in the Acer TeamStory Cup qualifiers, Welmu scored a massive all-kill against the Korean free agent coalition known as the "Bounty Hunters." By defeating HyuN, YoDa, First, and MC (twice) in a single day, Welmu made European fans start to wonder if the string of Europe > Korea upsets in the months prior wasn't just a fluke, but the start of a larger movement.Given his momentum, Welmu seems like the perfect European to join VortiX and Snute in topping his WCS Ro16 group, but he'll need to get past notorious volatility of the PvP match-up. His recent record doesn't really reassure you: Three wins against MC and First are preceded by losses to KnowMe, Socke, and Russian Protoss AvaTaR. Strange as it seems, European fans might actually have preferred Welmu to play some Koreans instead, as long as they were Terran or Zerg.
Overall Predictions:
Welmu > BabyKnight
TLO > StarDust
Welmu > TLO
StarDust > BabyKnight
TLO > StarDust
Welmu and TLO advance.
Welmu!
