Alongside ZvZ, the Protoss mirror has been one of StarCraft 2's most hated match-ups ever since release. Yes, we know that it's a match-up full of depth and intricacies. The movement of a scouting probe, the placement of a single building, the use of a single chronoboost: any one of those could be part of a cunning mind-game to bring a player one step closer to victory.
Alas, we can't help but feel a certain way about the match-up. And that is that PvP is a coin-flip. Without the benefit of advanced statistical analysis, simply watching a ton of tournament games gives us the feeling that it's the match-up where the worse player is most likely to be the better one. Even pro players seem to disagree about the truth of it. Oz, a player with a 55% career win-rate against fellow Koreans, insists that PvP is a skill game. StarDust, a player who is enjoying a 70%+ win rate in 2014, still feels that it's a half/half affair.
Even the statistics don't give us much help in this group:
Squirtle: 61.50% career win rate Classic: 60.26% career win rate PartinG: 61.14% career win rate Rain: 57.93% career win rate
Only games against Korean players have been taken into consideration. All stats from Aligulac.com.
If we look at more recent match histories from after 2014, the picture seems to get somewhat clearer.
Squirtle: 1-6 (14.29% win rate) in 2014 Classic: 13-5 (72.22% win rate) in 2014 PartinG: 9-9 (50.00% win rate) in 2014 Rain: 8-8 (50.00% win rate) in 2014
Going by those stats, it seems like Classic is on an ungodly PvP streak, while Squirtle just can't figure out how to win in the new environment. Yet, the sample size for Squirtle is rather small, while most of Classic's wins came from one very hot run in an IEM qualifier. Are those things we really want to read that deeply into?
On top of all that, we live in a post-MSC nerf world, where players can no longer scout their opponent's base for essentially free in the early game. It hasn't even been two weeks since the change, which means the new meta has hardly settled into place. Players still might have wildly different opinions on what now constitutes an acceptable risk given the smaller chance of being found out by an MSC, and will also differ on how much more reconnaissance-oriented their builds are.
To make things even more unpredictable, three of the players are on the same team and have presumably talked with each other for hours about PvP strategy. Team-kills have long been known for their tendency to create bizarre plays based on the knowledge acquired from hundreds of closed door games. We're expecting the SKT players to pull out their deepest, darkest secret plays against each other tonight.
To be honest, we have no idea who is going to advance in tonight's group. But tradition says we have to give you a prediction, so here you go:
In order to convince you to sit through an entirely PvP group, we've allowed stuchiu to write an entirely fictional story about the group. If you can make yourself believe that this story is real for three hours, you just might find yourself able to get through Group C.
Everything was going great for SK Telecom T1. Seven of their players had made it to Code S, and five of them reached the round of sixteen. Despite a blip against KT in the Proleague R1 playoffs, they seemed on course to brute force a top finish in Proleague with their stacked roster. Even Fantasy was beginning to regain his old form as one of T1's mainstays, and the cursed legacy of the SKT Zergs was coming to an end thanks to soO and Soulkey.
But then, tragedy struck.
At first, it seemed like there had simply been a minor inconvenience. GSL's decision to change to a random draw format for the Ro16 saw three of SKT's players in Classic, PartinG, and Rain all thrown into the same group with Squirtle. Though team-kills are always a sad affair, it appeared that SKT would simply shrug off the elimination of one of their players while the other two went through.
After all, how could Squirtle stand up to the others? All three were championship candidates in the tournament. Classic was a rising Protoss star, one without a big individual tournament result but very highly rated by all of his peers. Rain was the first KeSPA player to become a champion, and had been one of the most consistently great players for the last year. And of course, PartinG was the Soul Toss, ready to run a train over anyone with his impeccable micro in PvP.
Squirtle? He was a washed up has been, lucky to ride the wave of Protoss dominance into an unlikely Ro16 appearance in Code S. But Squirtle had a plan. A plan that would turn SKT's little inconvenience into an all-out disaster.
It only took one simple step to set things into motion: Squirtle offered his old Startale buddy PartinG some secret practice games so they could advance out of the group together. PartinG reluctantly accepted, having had considerable trouble finding players to practice with outside of his team. Once the practice started, all Squirtle had to do quietly leak the fact that they had practiced together.
The news inevitably reached the ears of Rain and Classic, who quickly grew paranoid as they wondered if Parting still had more ST in him than SKT. Without confronting PartinG at first, Classic asked Rain to practice with him so so they could punish PartinG for his collusion. However, Rain only grew more angered at Classic's suggestion, calling Classic a dishonorable mercenary who was no better than PartinG.
Eventually, it all came to a boil as the three Protosses confronted each other face to face in a cataclymic arguments. A sobbing Paralyze tried to calm everyone down with the offer of a compromise where he would practice with all three of them, but was quickly laughed out of the room.
Head coach iloveoov tried to solve the situation by getting the three to forget PvP and focus on practicing against Zerg for the upcoming Proleague matches instead, but it was too late. All three players had been become obsessed with winning their PvPs against each other and proving once and for all who the best SKT player was. As collateral damage, Soulkey was left to practice on his own and get eliminated by two Protosses in the GSL, losing his record streak of quarterfinal appearances.
Even worse was the PL match against Jin Air. Parting lost his PvP to sOs as he had been to busy preparing for Rain and Classic. Rain and Classic were too absorbed thinking about Parting’s game against sOs to focus for their matches and lost to Cure and Rogue. The SKT team house atmosphere had been ruined for good.
Just as planned.
Now all that's left for Squirtle to finish the job and eliminate the SKT Protosses in tonight's Code S group.
On March 12 2014 08:28 Fusilero wrote: If I didn't know any better I'd swear I just read SC2 protoss progamer fan fiction in place of an extended preview.
This is so good, I'm having trouble not bursting into hysterical laughter. 11/10 write up, stunning, I'm gonna enjoy tomorow's group.
But the predictions can't be serious, like Squirtle defeating Classic seems beyond the realm of possibility given both's recent conditions. PartinG vs Rain I can see being a ton closer. Still PvP could very well be 50/50 so all's possible.
On March 12 2014 08:37 Destructicon wrote: This is so good, I'm having trouble not bursting into hysterical laughter. 11/10 write up, stunning, I'm gonna enjoy tomorow's group.
But the predictions can't be serious, like Squirtle defeating Classic seems beyond the realm of possibility given both's recent conditions. PartinG vs Rain I can see being a ton closer. Still PvP could very well be 50/50 so all's possible.
It was all part of Squirtles plan to sabotage Classic and Rain. Squirtle advances 4-0. Genius thinking really
On March 12 2014 08:38 Waxangel wrote: the only PvP stat I'd trust is over 200 games played 24 hours before the match
PvP is the one match-up where you might be able to pull that off hahaha. Ahh the good old days of 4 gate wars.
I'm feeling heavily conflicted about who I want to advance (all 4 of them) but as I see it PartinG on top and then Classic. I think Rain might be a little too easy to metagame, despite having shown more versatility as of late. I hate to write off Squirtle just because, as IM still has a strong lineup of protosses with Trap, HerO, and YongHwa to practice with, but I think the SKT players are just going to be crisper. I think there is a potential that Squirtle could advance with some crazyass builds though, since it would be kind of hard for any of the SKT players to use a build they haven't used in practice before (maybe?). Also I'm a PartinG fan so I have some bias, but his PvP has always been pretty damn strong, even if as of late it hasn't looked stellar. For some originality, I decided to do some more detailed, although very random and arbitrary predictions: Classic 2-1 Squirtle, we see DT's in at least 2 games PartinG 2-1 Rain, PartinG wins both games with blink and Rain wins one with a really cool build PartinG 2-1 Classic, at least one proxy gateway, one phoenix vs phoenix game that turns into a tug of war of counters Squirtle 2-0 Rain, Rain fails proxying tech at least once, Squirtle micros like a god at least twice Classic 2-0 Squirtle, no more than 3 natural bases taken in this series, a proxy tech structure in both games PartinG and Classic advance
Please, please, please, Squirtle, just advance once more. I've been watching and waiting for you to grace the GSL bracket with your presence again for about two years now.
I mean....I think it just comes down to whoever is having a better day. They're all arguably the best protosses in HotS (except maybe squirtle that's debatable).
After reading the story I actually kind of want to watch the group. Unfortunately I've found it nearly impossible to watch GSL in the eastern timezone. I might be able to catch the last half in the morning - assuming the games aren't already over.
On March 12 2014 13:08 r691175002 wrote: After reading the story I actually kind of want to watch the group. Unfortunately I've found it nearly impossible to watch GSL in the eastern timezone. I might be able to catch the last half in the morning - assuming the games aren't already over.
If it were a PvZ group your chances wouldn't be bad at all
I am really looking forward to this group. I like PvP in normal cases, and with three top players from the same team this will be very interesting. Of course, it could all turn into a mess of failed mindgames, but still.
EPT
Squirtle, 
