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Code S - Ro16 Group C Preview (Season 1)

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Code S - Ro16 Group C Preview (Season 1)

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
March 11th, 2014 23:14 GMT
2013 GSL Season 2

GSL Season One
Code S



Ro16 Group C Preview
Squirtle, Classic, PartinG, Rain

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

VODs on Twitch

Ro16 Group C Preview

(P)Squirtle, (P)Classic, (P)PartinG, (P)Rain

by Waxangel

Ah, the Protoss vs. Protoss group.

Alongside ZvZ, the Protoss mirror has been one of StarCraft 2's most hated match-ups ever since release. Yes, we know that it's a match-up full of depth and intricacies. The movement of a scouting probe, the placement of a single building, the use of a single chronoboost: any one of those could be part of a cunning mind-game to bring a player one step closer to victory.

Alas, we can't help but feel a certain way about the match-up. And that is that PvP is a coin-flip. Without the benefit of advanced statistical analysis, simply watching a ton of tournament games gives us the feeling that it's the match-up where the worse player is most likely to be the better one. Even pro players seem to disagree about the truth of it. Oz, a player with a 55% career win-rate against fellow Koreans, insists that PvP is a skill game. StarDust, a player who is enjoying a 70%+ win rate in 2014, still feels that it's a half/half affair.

Even the statistics don't give us much help in this group:

(P)Squirtle: 61.50% career win rate
(P)Classic: 60.26% career win rate
(P)PartinG: 61.14% career win rate
(P)Rain: 57.93% career win rate

Only games against Korean players have been taken into consideration. All stats from Aligulac.com.

If we look at more recent match histories from after 2014, the picture seems to get somewhat clearer.

(P)Squirtle: 1-6 (14.29% win rate) in 2014
(P)Classic: 13-5 (72.22% win rate) in 2014
(P)PartinG: 9-9 (50.00% win rate) in 2014
(P)Rain: 8-8 (50.00% win rate) in 2014

Going by those stats, it seems like Classic is on an ungodly PvP streak, while Squirtle just can't figure out how to win in the new environment. Yet, the sample size for Squirtle is rather small, while most of Classic's wins came from one very hot run in an IEM qualifier. Are those things we really want to read that deeply into?

On top of all that, we live in a post-MSC nerf world, where players can no longer scout their opponent's base for essentially free in the early game. It hasn't even been two weeks since the change, which means the new meta has hardly settled into place. Players still might have wildly different opinions on what now constitutes an acceptable risk given the smaller chance of being found out by an MSC, and will also differ on how much more reconnaissance-oriented their builds are.

To make things even more unpredictable, three of the players are on the same team and have presumably talked with each other for hours about PvP strategy. Team-kills have long been known for their tendency to create bizarre plays based on the knowledge acquired from hundreds of closed door games. We're expecting the SKT players to pull out their deepest, darkest secret plays against each other tonight.

To be honest, we have no idea who is going to advance in tonight's group. But tradition says we have to give you a prediction, so here you go:

Squirtle > Classic
Rain > PartinG
Squirtle > Rain
PartinG > Classic
PartinG> Rain

Squirtle and PartinG advance.

Ro16 Group C "Preview"

by stuchiu

In order to convince you to sit through an entirely PvP group, we've allowed stuchiu to write an entirely fictional story about the group. If you can make yourself believe that this story is real for three hours, you just might find yourself able to get through Group C.

Everything was going great for SK Telecom T1. Seven of their players had made it to Code S, and five of them reached the round of sixteen. Despite a blip against KT in the Proleague R1 playoffs, they seemed on course to brute force a top finish in Proleague with their stacked roster. Even Fantasy was beginning to regain his old form as one of T1's mainstays, and the cursed legacy of the SKT Zergs was coming to an end thanks to soO and Soulkey.

But then, tragedy struck.

At first, it seemed like there had simply been a minor inconvenience. GSL's decision to change to a random draw format for the Ro16 saw three of SKT's players in Classic, PartinG, and Rain all thrown into the same group with Squirtle. Though team-kills are always a sad affair, it appeared that SKT would simply shrug off the elimination of one of their players while the other two went through.

After all, how could Squirtle stand up to the others? All three were championship candidates in the tournament. Classic was a rising Protoss star, one without a big individual tournament result but very highly rated by all of his peers. Rain was the first KeSPA player to become a champion, and had been one of the most consistently great players for the last year. And of course, PartinG was the Soul Toss, ready to run a train over anyone with his impeccable micro in PvP.

Squirtle? He was a washed up has been, lucky to ride the wave of Protoss dominance into an unlikely Ro16 appearance in Code S. But Squirtle had a plan. A plan that would turn SKT's little inconvenience into an all-out disaster.

It only took one simple step to set things into motion: Squirtle offered his old Startale buddy PartinG some secret practice games so they could advance out of the group together. PartinG reluctantly accepted, having had considerable trouble finding players to practice with outside of his team. Once the practice started, all Squirtle had to do quietly leak the fact that they had practiced together.

The news inevitably reached the ears of Rain and Classic, who quickly grew paranoid as they wondered if Parting still had more ST in him than SKT. Without confronting PartinG at first, Classic asked Rain to practice with him so so they could punish PartinG for his collusion. However, Rain only grew more angered at Classic's suggestion, calling Classic a dishonorable mercenary who was no better than PartinG.

Eventually, it all came to a boil as the three Protosses confronted each other face to face in a cataclymic arguments. A sobbing Paralyze tried to calm everyone down with the offer of a compromise where he would practice with all three of them, but was quickly laughed out of the room.

Head coach iloveoov tried to solve the situation by getting the three to forget PvP and focus on practicing against Zerg for the upcoming Proleague matches instead, but it was too late. All three players had been become obsessed with winning their PvPs against each other and proving once and for all who the best SKT player was. As collateral damage, Soulkey was left to practice on his own and get eliminated by two Protosses in the GSL, losing his record streak of quarterfinal appearances.

Even worse was the PL match against Jin Air. Parting lost his PvP to sOs as he had been to busy preparing for Rain and Classic. Rain and Classic were too absorbed thinking about Parting’s game against sOs to focus for their matches and lost to Cure and Rogue. The SKT team house atmosphere had been ruined for good.

Just as planned.


Now all that's left for Squirtle to finish the job and eliminate the SKT Protosses in tonight's Code S group.

Writers: Waxangel and stuchiu.
Graphics: GomTV, SpoTV, shiroiusagi.
Editor: Waxangel.
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TL+ Member
Fusilero
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United Kingdom50293 Posts
March 11 2014 23:28 GMT
#2
If I didn't know any better I'd swear I just read SC2 protoss progamer fan fiction in place of an extended preview.
Glorious SEA doto
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33481 Posts
March 11 2014 23:29 GMT
#3
On March 12 2014 08:28 Fusilero wrote:
If I didn't know any better I'd swear I just read SC2 protoss progamer fan fiction in place of an extended preview.


I mean, you're not wrong...
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
DinosaurJones
Profile Joined February 2012
United States1000 Posts
March 11 2014 23:31 GMT
#4
ROFL at the part about Paralyze
Kasaraki
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Denmark7115 Posts
March 11 2014 23:32 GMT
#5
If only it was a slash fic.
Orcasgt24
Profile Joined August 2011
Canada3238 Posts
March 11 2014 23:35 GMT
#6
Best faux story ever written on TL!
In Hearthstone we pray to RNGesus. When Yogg-Saron hits the field, RNGod gets to work
prabhbhambra13
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom424 Posts
March 11 2014 23:35 GMT
#7
So that explains the 3-0 by Jin Air!

SC2 needs more fanfics. That was hilarious.
SECO SECO SECO
HechNo
Profile Joined December 2013
Taiwan5 Posts
March 11 2014 23:36 GMT
#8
Troll predictions?

or simply blind?
Destructicon
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
4713 Posts
March 11 2014 23:37 GMT
#9
This is so good, I'm having trouble not bursting into hysterical laughter. 11/10 write up, stunning, I'm gonna enjoy tomorow's group.

But the predictions can't be serious, like Squirtle defeating Classic seems beyond the realm of possibility given both's recent conditions. PartinG vs Rain I can see being a ton closer. Still PvP could very well be 50/50 so all's possible.
WriterNever give up, never surrender! https://www.youtube.com/user/DestructiconSC
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33481 Posts
March 11 2014 23:38 GMT
#10
the only PvP stat I'd trust is over 200 games played 24 hours before the match
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
Orcasgt24
Profile Joined August 2011
Canada3238 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-11 23:40:12
March 11 2014 23:38 GMT
#11
On March 12 2014 08:37 Destructicon wrote:
This is so good, I'm having trouble not bursting into hysterical laughter. 11/10 write up, stunning, I'm gonna enjoy tomorow's group.

But the predictions can't be serious, like Squirtle defeating Classic seems beyond the realm of possibility given both's recent conditions. PartinG vs Rain I can see being a ton closer. Still PvP could very well be 50/50 so all's possible.

It was all part of Squirtles plan to sabotage Classic and Rain. Squirtle advances 4-0. Genius thinking really
On March 12 2014 08:38 Waxangel wrote:
the only PvP stat I'd trust is over 200 games played 24 hours before the match


PvP is the one match-up where you might be able to pull that off hahaha. Ahh the good old days of 4 gate wars.
In Hearthstone we pray to RNGesus. When Yogg-Saron hits the field, RNGod gets to work
Destructicon
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
4713 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-11 23:39:19
March 11 2014 23:39 GMT
#12
On March 12 2014 08:36 HechNo wrote:
Troll predictions?

or simply blind?


The writers could also be fans of water types
WriterNever give up, never surrender! https://www.youtube.com/user/DestructiconSC
Mahanaim
Profile Joined December 2012
Korea (South)1002 Posts
March 11 2014 23:39 GMT
#13
Afro Toss T.T
Celebrating Starcraft since... a long time ago.
oo_Wonderful_oo
Profile Blog Joined December 2013
The land of freedom23126 Posts
March 11 2014 23:50 GMT
#14
This fiction, oh God.
Please. more.
Especially, if Squirtle advances tonight.
LiquidLegends StaffFPL 25 #1 | tfw I cast games on-air | back-to-back Liquibet winner
igay
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
Australia1178 Posts
March 11 2014 23:53 GMT
#15
I'm actually pretty keen for this group.
MVP <3 MKP <3 DRG <3
SPQ_Nomo
Profile Joined March 2014
Chile2 Posts
March 11 2014 23:59 GMT
#16
Paralize best SKT's protoss
Shinespark
Profile Joined June 2011
Chile843 Posts
March 12 2014 00:09 GMT
#17
Funny fictional story.
Go Squirtle!!! Train your EVs!!!
"I, for one, welcome our new Korean overlords."
Skynx
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
Turkey7150 Posts
March 12 2014 00:19 GMT
#18
Why stuchiu is so good at this stuff?
"When seagulls follow the troller, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea. Thank you very much" - King Cantona | STX 4 eva
AxiomBlurr
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
786 Posts
March 12 2014 00:26 GMT
#19
200% Classic and Parting get through...
banjoetheredskin
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
United States744 Posts
March 12 2014 00:34 GMT
#20
I'm feeling heavily conflicted about who I want to advance (all 4 of them) but as I see it PartinG on top and then Classic. I think Rain might be a little too easy to metagame, despite having shown more versatility as of late. I hate to write off Squirtle just because, as IM still has a strong lineup of protosses with Trap, HerO, and YongHwa to practice with, but I think the SKT players are just going to be crisper. I think there is a potential that Squirtle could advance with some crazyass builds though, since it would be kind of hard for any of the SKT players to use a build they haven't used in practice before (maybe?). Also I'm a PartinG fan so I have some bias, but his PvP has always been pretty damn strong, even if as of late it hasn't looked stellar. For some originality, I decided to do some more detailed, although very random and arbitrary predictions:
Classic 2-1 Squirtle, we see DT's in at least 2 games
PartinG 2-1 Rain, PartinG wins both games with blink and Rain wins one with a really cool build
PartinG 2-1 Classic, at least one proxy gateway, one phoenix vs phoenix game that turns into a tug of war of counters
Squirtle 2-0 Rain, Rain fails proxying tech at least once, Squirtle micros like a god at least twice
Classic 2-0 Squirtle, no more than 3 natural bases taken in this series, a proxy tech structure in both games
PartinG and Classic advance
Writer#1 CJ fan | http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/508947-wcs-dreamhack-austin-interviews
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