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WCS EU Ro32 - Group D Preview

Forum Index > SC2 General
74 CommentsPost a Reply
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WCS EU Ro32 - Group D Preview

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
September 10th, 2013 07:37 GMT
2013 WCS Europe

WCS Europe Season 3



Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

VODs on Youtube

Ro32 Group D Preview

(P)Genius, (P)Grubby, (T)LucifroN, (Z)Starbuck

by Plexa

Group D is very much your typical Ro32 group for this tournament – there is the clear favourite of the group, Lucifron, the players who have unknown form, Genius and Grubby, and the underdog of the group, Starbuck. It’s easy to assess the group and assert that Lucifron will come out 2-0 with Genius/Grubby left to fight over the remaining spot. But actually, if recent trends are any indication, this group is likely to be anything but cut and dry.

So far as WCS points are concerned, Grubby and Lucifron need to advance from this group to have any shot at qualifying for the grand finals. Genius and Starbuck could theoretically still qualify, but they’d need to make this finals this season and get top four in the season finals (or something like that). Grubby is at #24 on the points list at the moment, with 1750 points (#16 has 2350). A top-5 finish this season might just be enough to see him through to provide some non-Korean presence at the grand finals. Lucifron has been denied any serious points for two seasons now, but a deep run this season will keep his WCS hopes alive. At #31 with 1250 points, he has some ground to make up but it’s certainly within his grasp.

[image loading]

Lucifron's 1-3 loss to TLO in season 1 was the closest he's gotten to 'serious points'

Let’s look at the first match of the night, Grubby vs Genius. Grubby has come off a top 4 finish in WCS EU last season and a 0-4 exit in the season finals. The contrast between these two results typifies Grubby’s SC2 career to date – one moment he looks like a real contender for a championship and the next you wonder how he made it into the tournament in the first place. Genius suffers from the same syndrome; on a good day he can eliminate anyone in the world and on a bad day he can go out without taking a map. So much depends on the condition of these players that it’s difficult to call a winner in the first match. With that said, I’m fairly sure whoever takes the first series will take a rematch if that transpires. And who will that player be? My moneys on Genius. The last time he dropped a PvP series at a major tournament to a non-Korean was over a year ago and with Grubby’s recent PvP shakiness I suspect he will edge out a victory.

I would be very surprised if Starbuck was able to defeat Lucifron and here’s 3 reasons why. Firstly, it’s Lucifron’s TvZ which I’d rate as probably the best in Europe. Secondly, this is Starbuck’s first really big showing and while it’s being played online, I still feel like Lucifron’s stage experience should give him an edge. Lastly, with Lucifron being a ladder warrior, I doubt that Starbuck is as much of an unknown to him as he is to the average forum goer (and thus knows that Starbuck is more than likely to pull out his own brand of ‘Special Tactics’ and be ready for that).

Assuming the previous predictions hold, we’ll have Genius playing his (statistically) best matchup and Lucifron playing his (statistically) worst matchup (in recent history). While the caliber of Genius’ opponents may be marginally lower than that of Lucifron, that is not enough to alleviate the fact that Lucifron’s Achilles heel has been Protoss since his dual losses to duckdeok and Welmu in season 2. I would love to see Lucifron advance here, but it seems very unlikely. Even if Grubby advanced over Genius, I still doubt that Lucifron would make it through. Thus, I expect Genius to advance first from the group (or Grubby, if he finds himself in this position).

Now let me preface the next prediction with this VOD between Starbuck and Genius from their WCS Qualifier match.

[image loading]

Yes, this happened in a WCS Qualifier

Starbuck, while a huge unknown to most, actually is a player who is very capable of playing unorthodox and original strategies. If you didn’t watch the VOD above, then let me explain what happened. Starbuck stacked 8 or so drones to make them look like a single scouting drone as it crossed the map and then successfully disrupted the Protoss wall long enough for his zerglings to arrive and seal the game. I feel like Starbuck is his strongest when he plays against Protoss because of the flexibility in the strategies he can employ, and I expect that to work to his advantage in this match. With Grubby/Genius/Lucifron all realising that they are the top contenders in their group I expect their preparation time to be more focused on preparing for each other as opposed to Starbuck (except possibly Lucifron). As such, regardless of who loses the Grubby/Genius match, I expect them to go out 0-2 to some creative strategies and resulting in the LR thread being painted red with bans.

I don’t expect anything interesting to happen between Lucifron and Starbuck in the final series – probably Starbuck cheese, Lucifron holding, and Starbuck finishing third. But if Lucifron advances first, then Starbuck has a real shot at making it out of this group (as he gets more games vs Protoss).

Prediction:
Grubby 1-2 Genius
Lucifron 2-0 Starbuck
Genius 2-0 Lucifron
Grubby 0-2 Starbuck
Lucifron 2-0 Starbuck

Genius and Lucifron to advance.

Games begin in


Upcoming Groups
Sept 11: (P)Welmu, (P)BlinG, (Z)sLivko, (T)ThorZaIN
Sept 12: (P)HasuObs, (P)Shuttle, (P)TitaN, (Z)Nerchio
Sept 17: (T)MMA, (P)TAiLS, (P)BabyKnight, (T)KrasS

More WCS Europe Season 3 Coverage

Oct 6 – WCS EU Season 3 RO8 Recap/Final Day Preview
Oct 5 – WCS EU Season 3 RO8 Preview
Sept 30 – WCS EU Season 3 RO16 D Recap/RO8 Bracket
Sept 27 – WCS EU Season 3 RO16 Group C Recap/Group D Preview
Sept 26 – WCS EU Season 3 RO16 Group B Recap/Group C Preview


Writer: Plexa
Graphics: shiroiusagi
Banner photo: ESL
Editor: Plexa.

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TL+ Member
TheEmulator
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
28091 Posts
September 10 2013 07:41 GMT
#2
My heart is going with Grubby, but my mind is saying not going to happen.
Administrator
lichter
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
September 10 2013 07:46 GMT
#3
I want Starbuck to win if only because of that game vs Genius
AdministratorYOU MUST HEED MY INSTRUCTIONS TAKE OFF YOUR THIIIINGS
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
September 10 2013 07:50 GMT
#4
So many cool players in this group
Cant wait, this is gonna be awesome!
I have no clue who makes it out, tho the predictions make a lot of sense.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
xAdra
Profile Joined July 2012
Singapore1858 Posts
September 10 2013 07:57 GMT
#5
The player named Starbuck is NOT from America? Did not see that coming
ejozl
Profile Joined October 2010
Denmark3425 Posts
September 10 2013 07:57 GMT
#6
Grubby and Lucifron ez.
SC2 Archon needs "Terrible, terrible damage" as one of it's quotes.
Deleted User 155124
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
72 Posts
September 10 2013 08:08 GMT
#7
Grubby for sure. The dude has become a Tibetan Monk of Starcraft2 Protoss, and all he does is train now.
Hadronsbecrazy
Profile Joined September 2013
United Kingdom551 Posts
September 10 2013 08:30 GMT
#8
gogo grubby :D
No need Build Orders, Only Micro,Favourite Players: Maru, Zest, soOjwa , CJherO
Gudge
Profile Joined June 2013
542 Posts
September 10 2013 08:31 GMT
#9
Hoping for Grubby too!
づ。◕‿‿◕。)づ ・。*。・゜✧・。*・゜゜・✧ *。・゜*✧
jackslater
Profile Joined November 2012
Russian Federation604 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-10 08:37:49
September 10 2013 08:37 GMT
#10
grubby and luci will win this
SayTT
Profile Joined August 2004
Sweden2158 Posts
September 10 2013 08:44 GMT
#11
I can't see any luci-ballz around, I don't think lucifron dares to win this group, I bet he will come in last place.
-,-
ClueClueClue
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Sweden1203 Posts
September 10 2013 08:46 GMT
#12
Starbuck so underrated in a standard game! He can totally do this.
Cogito, ergo toss.
k03k
Profile Joined June 2011
Netherlands15 Posts
September 10 2013 08:49 GMT
#13
Grubby got this!
jarod
Profile Joined September 2010
Romania766 Posts
September 10 2013 08:51 GMT
#14
Starbuck and Lucifron to advance... But would be nice to have Grubby in the RO16
Maru | Life | herO
_fool
Profile Joined February 2011
Netherlands678 Posts
September 10 2013 09:08 GMT
#15

Prediction:
Grubby 1-2 Genius
Lucifron 2-0 Starbuck
Genius 2-0 Lucifron
Grubby 0-2 Starbuck
Lucifron 2-0 Starbuck


This cannot be. Grubby must go through. Your predictions are wrong.
"News is to the mind what sugar is to the body"
Rustug
Profile Joined October 2010
1488 Posts
September 10 2013 09:26 GMT
#16
My prediction is that Lucifron's nerves won't hold.

Starbuck & Grubby to advance.
Curious that we spend more time congratulating people who have succeeded than encouraging people who have not. 파이팅! ᕦ(ò_óˇ)ᕤ"
SigmaoctanusIV
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States3313 Posts
September 10 2013 09:26 GMT
#17
Grubby has amazing pvp days and the worst pvp days I hope he has a good day
I am Godzilla You are Japan
Account252508
Profile Joined February 2012
3454 Posts
September 10 2013 09:32 GMT
#18
--- Nuked ---
Homework
Profile Joined December 2010
United States283 Posts
September 10 2013 09:40 GMT
#19
I believe in Grubby and so should you!
Pontius Pirate
Profile Blog Joined August 2013
United States1557 Posts
September 10 2013 09:44 GMT
#20
On September 10 2013 17:44 SayTT wrote:
I can't see any luci-ballz around, I don't think lucifron dares to win this group, I bet he will come in last place.

Luci-ballz' gonna have some splainin' to do.
"I had to close the door so my parents wouldn't judge me." - ZombieGrub during the ShitfaceTradeTV stream
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