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On June 18 2014 18:14 korona wrote:Interesting data. It also highlights the problem with the current 'harsh' MMR decay. As so considerable portion of players are inactive most of the time, the decay causes general MMR level to go down. If you are going to run the data collection (semi-) regularly, I would suggest to collect some more individual data, so it would be possible follow up the number of players who have longer than 2 weeks breaks during the 1v1 season (or who have several such breaks) (decay starts after 2 weeks and reaches its max value after 4 weeks). This would give better estimate how many players face direct MMR decay during the season (Of course those numbers would be only pointers as the unranked 1v1 games reset the decay counter too and they cannot be followed). But what extra data would be needed: 1) Timestamp for each player data (fetch time) e.g. to be able to calculate max bonus pool (and potentially calculated max pool value based on it), 2) recording player-id:s (IDs cannot change like nick, for example id for http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/123456/1/example/ would be 1-123456 or long ID would be 2-S2-1-123456, where first number is the server 1 US, 2 EU, 3 KR, 5 CN, 6 SEA, 'S2' is static for all. Of course the URL itself contains that info too), 3) league, 4) division name (or id, but division name is ok as names are unique), win and loss counts and ladder points. By comparing the earlier data one can see if the player has played ranked 1v1 games during the period. Bonus pool accumulation starting times for this season S18: + Show Spoiler +## US, EU, KR, SEA, CN
Sun 13 Apr 2014 07:00:08 GMT
Sat 12 Apr 2014 23:00:08 GMT
Sat 12 Apr 2014 15:00:08 GMT
Sat 12 Apr 2014 16:00:08 GMT
Sat 12 Apr 2014 16:00:08 GMT
or as long in milliseconds (Unix epoch time):
1397372408000
1397343608000
1397314808000
1397318408000
1397318408000
Edit 1: You have some problem regarding EU master players who have 9 weeks worth of bonus pool (should be 230 instead of 11).
Good catch, fixed for next run.
Not exactly sure how to exactly use all that data right now, but it's possible to collect. The only thing that I think might be an issue is tracking the "last ranked or 1v1 game played" data, because I would have to open up an extra page for every single player, and at this rate doubling the program time would cause the whole program to take maybe 7-8 days to run, which means to keep up weekly updates I would have to be running this thing constantly.
For the next runthrough I'll try to add some of the metadata to the raw sheet and we can go from there (as far as analysis goes)
Thank you!
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On June 18 2014 15:39 Archiatrus wrote:
Is it possible to extract the race distribution per league as well? I always wondered if there is a difference between the "super-active" and the "I-play-one-game-per-season" player in terms of races actively played (and secretly hoped it is nearer the 1/3-1/3-1/3 distribution).
It's do-able though and I'll try it for the next analysis set (probably released next week).
Thanks!
EDIT: actually nios.kr already grabs race stats for me so this should be pretty easy.
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On June 18 2014 20:12 frajen86 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2014 18:14 korona wrote:On June 15 2014 17:16 frajen86 wrote:I grabbed all the remaining bonus pool values for 102,158 players (using the NA player list from nios.kr - http://nios.kr/sc2/us/1v1/hots/). Interesting data. It also highlights the problem with the current 'harsh' MMR decay. As so considerable portion of players are inactive most of the time, the decay causes general MMR level to go down. If you are going to run the data collection (semi-) regularly, I would suggest to collect some more individual data, so it would be possible follow up the number of players who have longer than 2 weeks breaks during the 1v1 season (or who have several such breaks) (decay starts after 2 weeks and reaches its max value after 4 weeks). This would give better estimate how many players face direct MMR decay during the season (Of course those numbers would be only pointers as the unranked 1v1 games reset the decay counter too and they cannot be followed). But what extra data would be needed: 1) Timestamp for each player data (fetch time) e.g. to be able to calculate max bonus pool (and potentially calculated max pool value based on it), 2) recording player-id:s (IDs cannot change like nick, for example id for http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/123456/1/example/ would be 1-123456 or long ID would be 2-S2-1-123456, where first number is the server 1 US, 2 EU, 3 KR, 5 CN, 6 SEA, 'S2' is static for all. Of course the URL itself contains that info too), 3) league, 4) division name (or id, but division name is ok as names are unique), win and loss counts and ladder points. By comparing the earlier data one can see if the player has played ranked 1v1 games during the period. Bonus pool accumulation starting times for this season S18: + Show Spoiler +## US, EU, KR, SEA, CN
Sun 13 Apr 2014 07:00:08 GMT
Sat 12 Apr 2014 23:00:08 GMT
Sat 12 Apr 2014 15:00:08 GMT
Sat 12 Apr 2014 16:00:08 GMT
Sat 12 Apr 2014 16:00:08 GMT
or as long in milliseconds (Unix epoch time):
1397372408000
1397343608000
1397314808000
1397318408000
1397318408000
Edit 1: You have some problem regarding EU master players who have 9 weeks worth of bonus pool (should be 230 instead of 11). Good catch, fixed for next run. Not exactly sure how to exactly use all that data right now, but it's possible to collect. The only thing that I think might be an issue is tracking the "last ranked or 1v1 game played" data, because I would have to open up an extra page for every single player, and at this rate doubling the program time would cause the whole program to take maybe 7-8 days to run, which means to keep up weekly updates I would have to be running this thing constantly.
Everything I mentioned is available from the ladder page and from its URL from which you fetch the remaining bonus pool, thus no need to open several pages for each player. (the last ranked game can be solved after the data fetches by comparing records from different weeks. That does not give exact times, but gives data if each player has played ranked games during the period between the fetches).
Actually the division page also contains date when the player joined the division (+ the other info mentioned before). That also could be used for recognizing if the division has changed or 'leave league' feature been used + when there has been activity at least.
On June 18 2014 20:12 frajen86 wrote:For the next runthrough I'll try to add some of the metadata to the raw sheet and we can go from there (as far as analysis goes)
That would be nice.
Also regarding parsing the division page. Blizzard usually does not make changes to it. They may add data, but the old data can still be found by using old key elements. Also if they remove some data or data goes missing, the elements remain. For example this season they removed season numbers. The elements are still there, but the content is missing. They may add the missing content again later and usually do not change anything regarding the elements. (in other words using regexps like you are using is the fastest way to do it and the solution will likely continue to work even if Blizzard makes additions / removals in the future)
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Very interesting statistics. Korea has the highest retention rate of very players, but EU has the highest number of very active master players, much higher than KR or NA. perhaps it is the large number of small tourneys in EU that created this effect.
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Sorry for the bump, but the content here would be especially valuable given the ladder's current state. Is there any possible way to redo this analysis in the current season? The analysis performed by frajen86 in particular.
I've seen mention by Excalibur_Z and Korona regarding other threads (i.e. MMR plugin for SC2gears and Blizzard's response for League Distribution), but this would be helpful.
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On March 10 2015 05:48 HaloLegend98 wrote:Sorry for the bump, but the content here would be especially valuable given the ladder's current state. Is there any possible way to redo this analysis in the current season? The analysis performed by frajen86 in particular. I've seen mention by Excalibur_Z and Korona regarding other threads (i.e. MMR plugin for SC2gears and Blizzard's response for League Distribution), but this would be helpful.
See this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/459913-ranked-ladder-activity-analysis
Heads-up, that thread is a bit more than just bonus pool metric.
Although I already put up some numbers from the American region relating just to bonus pool: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23869343
I don't have every region up/full analysis because the whole thing takes a while to run. Part of the program goes through every single page in nios.kr, loads every nios.kr player's profile page on battle.net, and grabs the bonus pool. Loading every single player's battle.net profile has taken up to a few days in the past. AFAIK remaining bonus pool is not in the Starcraft 2 API so I can't get it as easily as nios.kr gets a player's points, or total wins, etc.
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OK thanks. I should have found this on my own...
1. Is this posted on Reddit? I have a feeling that it would help clear out a lot of unrest. I don't think that ladder distributions are going to be seeing major promotions. It's like many are waiting for a handout from Blizzard. Seeing this might calm down the tension over the league issue.
edit: found this from December http://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/2q8lg1/ranked_ladder_activity_analysis_update_from_dec/
So it is out there, but the community is still convinced that promotions are necessary. Strange.
2. I understand that long term issues regarding the tail ends of the distribution are a problem, but can this analysis help shed light about people complaining about Masters players playing Plats, i.e. MMR being a little wonky? I personally have not had matchmaking issues. I've used the MMR plugin for SC2gears and it has worked very effectively reflecting my experience. But others maintain consistent matchmaking problems.
edit: I found this
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/479763-ladder-league-distribution-update-march-5?page=5
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EPT![[image loading]](http://19hz.info/Starcraft/2014-06-18-KR_Chart.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://19hz.info/Starcraft/2014-06-18-KR_RawCountTable.jpg)
