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On April 17 2013 10:11 Longtimer wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2013 10:03 govie wrote:On April 17 2013 09:56 Longtimer wrote:On April 17 2013 09:50 govie wrote:
To what its worth : Ladderrankings dont say much. Yes polt crushes everyone on na ladder (and idra too). But idra can prepare, make a nce bo-win against polt etc. Hopefully, players are gonna analyse eachother and come up with insane to watch strategies customfit to there opponents!
#freeforall! How can you make a nice build order win (that will actually win you the game no matter what) against a player who has infinate better unit control and understanding of the game than yourself? Idra won't 6 pool, and Polt will identify overly greedy play right away. And no, this is not ment as an insult to Idra, it's ment as a praise for Polt. Unless Polt decides to chop off three of his fingers on his left hand before the matches, I can't see Idra even take a game off of him. Do u ever watch PL? Yes, I've been following Starcraft since 1999. Yes, you can snipe other players, but as far as I know Idra will be living on his own, at least for some time, which means he has to cook up a stategy all by himself. And as he has said before, that isn't his style at all. What could he do that can throw Polt off guard? Baneling busts? I've still not seen that work on Polt, even when he's playing cross server against the best korean GM players. Roach rush? The same. Rush up to Hive and Ultras? Good luck. Be my guest, he might of course be able to do that, but I'm not under the belief that Christmas lasts until Easter.
Because living on your own means you can't talk and practice with other people!
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On April 17 2013 09:08 Prplppleatr wrote:Here's Aligulac predictions: + Show Spoiler +I wasn't sure how to do a nul player, so I just used Artosis as a filler since he is one of the lowest ranked players (sorry artosis ♥) Group 1: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
HerO 87.42% 60.14% 27.28% 8.91% 3.66%
KiLLeR 60.67% 23.06% 37.61% 29.81% 9.53%
MajOr 46.89% 14.98% 31.91% 41.05% 12.06%
Artosis 5.02% 1.82% 3.20% 20.23% 74.75% Group 2: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
viOLet 95.74% 68.69% 27.06% 3.42% 0.84%
Scarlett 88.87% 28.07% 60.80% 9.80% 1.34%
State 12.22% 2.68% 9.54% 48.16% 39.61%
Artosis 3.17% 0.56% 2.61% 38.62% 58.21% Group 3: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
Polt 96.15% 77.25% 18.91% 3.47% 0.37%
goswser 54.63% 13.57% 41.06% 37.39% 7.98%
IdrA 45.14% 8.79% 36.35% 39.17% 15.69%
Artosis 4.08% 0.40% 3.68% 19.96% 75.96% Group 4: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Ryung 90.68% 65.08% 25.60% 6.73% 2.60%
Suppy 70.93% 22.54% 48.39% 23.13% 5.94%
hellokitty 31.42% 10.46% 20.96% 40.52% 28.06%
Artosis 6.98% 1.93% 5.05% 29.62% 63.40% Group 5: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
NesTea 92.95% 69.87% 23.08% 5.30% 1.75%
Minigun 47.62% 14.56% 33.06% 34.40% 17.97%
Fenix 52.61% 13.79% 38.83% 36.65% 10.74%
Artosis 6.81% 1.78% 5.02% 23.65% 69.54% Group 6: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
Snute 95.24% 73.94% 21.30% 3.45% 1.31%
theognis 61.69% 16.97% 44.72% 27.62% 10.69%
ViBE 36.03% 7.34% 28.69% 46.25% 17.72%
Artosis 7.04% 1.75% 5.29% 22.67% 70.29% Group 7: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
Sen 95.38% 72.10% 23.28% 3.29% 1.34%
HuK 65.96% 20.10% 45.86% 24.04% 10.01%
Capoch 27.94% 5.46% 22.48% 43.82% 28.24%
Artosis 10.73% 2.34% 8.39% 28.86% 60.41% Group 8: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
----------------------------------------------------------------
mOOnGLaDe 96.05% 77.35% 18.71% 2.53% 1.41%
Illusion 54.55% 11.74% 42.81% 32.04% 13.41%
Maker 41.18% 8.11% 33.07% 41.84% 16.98%
Artosis 8.21% 2.80% 5.41% 23.59% 68.20%
I've seen people post Aligulac numbers before. I don't really understand how it works exactly, and I didn't know anyone can just mess around with it without needing to know code or learning how to use it. It's actually quite simple to use, just input the player names and bam, it gives you the results.
I don't think using Artosis as the 4th player is the best way to look at how the groups might pan out because it's likely that the players who qualify for the Premier division will be very good players, and likely Korean.
Using this list of Koreans who are signing up for NA region, I compared on Aligulac the ones who weren't already given Premier seeds, and tried to determine who would be a fitting generic 4th player. A player who is likely to win through the qualifiers to get a premier seed, but not the very best, someone who sits slightly higher than the middle of that list. From playing around on Aligulac, there are a few players like this: Revival, TheStC, Alive, Crank, Zenio, and Alicia all have pretty even Aligulac scores. All solid players, no one would be surprised of one of they qualified.
So instead of Artosis, let's see what happens when we put TheStC, Revival, and Alicia (one of each race) as the 4th player in each group.
Group 1:
+ Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-------------------------------------------------------------
HerO 66.14% 36.00% 30.14% 19.33% 14.53%
TheStC 55.55% 27.84% 27.71% 24.15% 20.30%
KiLLeR 49.02% 23.79% 25.23% 26.09% 24.90%
MajOr 29.29% 12.36% 16.93% 30.43% 40.28% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
HerO 70.92% 40.72% 30.20% 16.67% 12.41%
RevivaL 55.65% 26.96% 28.69% 23.24% 21.12%
KiLLeR 38.93% 17.57% 21.36% 30.14% 30.93%
MajOr 34.50% 14.75% 19.75% 29.95% 35.55% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-------------------------------------------------------------
HerO 63.86% 33.68% 30.18% 20.56% 15.57%
Alicia 59.22% 30.63% 28.60% 22.65% 18.13%
KiLLeR 48.58% 23.84% 24.74% 26.11% 25.30%
MajOr 28.33% 11.85% 16.48% 30.67% 41.00%
Group 2:
+ Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
viOLet 84.47% 52.82% 31.65% 10.88% 4.65%
Scarlett 77.52% 35.19% 42.33% 16.40% 6.08%
TheStC 30.47% 9.36% 21.11% 48.05% 21.47%
State 7.54% 2.63% 4.90% 24.66% 67.80% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
viOLet 82.95% 50.83% 32.12% 11.93% 5.13%
Scarlett 66.01% 30.55% 35.46% 25.18% 8.82%
RevivaL 41.19% 15.43% 25.76% 33.99% 24.82%
State 9.85% 3.19% 6.66% 28.90% 61.24% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
viOLet 86.51% 55.32% 31.18% 9.45% 4.05%
Scarlett 78.39% 34.27% 44.12% 15.98% 5.63%
Alicia 28.82% 8.07% 20.76% 52.92% 18.25%
State 6.28% 2.34% 3.94% 21.65% 72.07%
Group 3:
+ Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
Polt 73.02% 41.06% 31.95% 16.70% 10.29%
TheStC 49.48% 24.74% 24.74% 25.22% 25.29%
goswser 43.18% 19.94% 23.25% 27.27% 29.54%
IdrA 34.31% 14.26% 20.06% 30.81% 34.88% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Polt 87.51% 60.70% 26.80% 7.59% 4.91%
RevivaL 54.01% 16.68% 37.33% 25.30% 20.69%
goswser 30.69% 13.05% 17.64% 31.98% 37.34%
IdrA 27.80% 9.57% 18.22% 35.14% 37.07% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Polt 85.31% 57.34% 27.97% 8.86% 5.83%
goswser 42.23% 16.38% 25.84% 29.70% 28.07%
Alicia 41.98% 16.12% 25.86% 28.30% 29.71%
IdrA 30.48% 10.15% 20.33% 33.13% 36.39%
Group 4:
+ Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TheStC 68.09% 36.62% 31.47% 19.61% 12.30%
Ryung 62.53% 31.30% 31.23% 21.35% 16.12%
Suppy 49.10% 23.93% 25.17% 29.19% 21.71%
hellokitty 20.28% 8.15% 12.13% 29.85% 49.87% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Ryung 75.32% 45.37% 29.94% 14.20% 10.49%
RevivaL 57.29% 25.87% 31.41% 22.80% 19.91%
Suppy 43.15% 18.71% 24.44% 33.04% 23.81%
hellokitty 24.25% 10.04% 14.20% 29.96% 45.79% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Alicia 67.99% 35.54% 32.44% 20.69% 11.32%
Suppy 55.80% 30.45% 25.36% 23.96% 20.23%
Ryung 57.23% 26.79% 30.44% 24.84% 17.93%
hellokitty 18.98% 7.22% 11.76% 30.51% 50.51%
Group 5:
+ Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
NesTea 73.64% 41.77% 31.88% 15.33% 11.03%
TheStC 68.72% 34.06% 34.67% 18.32% 12.96%
Minigun 30.67% 13.15% 17.52% 32.64% 36.69%
Fenix 26.96% 11.02% 15.93% 33.72% 39.33% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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NesTea 75.60% 44.76% 30.85% 14.36% 10.04%
RevivaL 56.87% 26.88% 29.99% 23.20% 19.93%
Minigun 37.07% 15.95% 21.12% 30.31% 32.62%
Fenix 30.46% 12.41% 18.04% 32.13% 37.41% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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NesTea 81.52% 52.40% 29.12% 10.97% 7.52%
Alicia 61.68% 23.42% 38.25% 22.51% 15.82%
Minigun 28.68% 12.45% 16.23% 33.07% 38.26%
Fenix 28.13% 11.73% 16.40% 33.46% 38.41%
Group 6:
+ Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
Snute 83.61% 53.09% 30.53% 10.28% 6.11%
TheStC 67.93% 27.55% 40.38% 18.02% 14.05%
theognis 28.76% 12.21% 16.55% 39.61% 31.63%
ViBE 19.69% 7.15% 12.54% 32.10% 48.21% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
Snute 81.17% 49.85% 31.31% 11.98% 6.85%
RevivaL 57.81% 25.32% 32.49% 24.12% 18.07%
theognis 42.02% 17.91% 24.11% 32.55% 25.42%
ViBE 19.00% 6.91% 12.08% 31.35% 49.66% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
Snute 84.63% 54.87% 29.76% 9.67% 5.70%
Alicia 58.52% 23.62% 34.90% 21.27% 20.21%
theognis 32.62% 13.23% 19.39% 36.79% 30.59%
ViBE 24.23% 8.28% 15.95% 32.27% 43.50%
Group 7:
+ Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-------------------------------------------------------------
Sen 85.46% 55.92% 29.54% 9.64% 4.90%
TheStC 56.10% 20.05% 36.04% 26.75% 17.15%
HuK 44.08% 19.30% 24.78% 32.85% 23.06%
Capoch 14.36% 4.72% 9.64% 30.75% 54.89% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Sen 85.45% 55.89% 29.55% 9.65% 4.90%
HuK 45.83% 19.85% 25.99% 31.82% 22.35%
RevivaL 53.77% 19.40% 34.37% 27.72% 18.51%
Capoch 14.95% 4.86% 10.09% 30.81% 54.24% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Sen 83.42% 52.70% 30.72% 10.97% 5.61%
Alicia 62.37% 24.43% 37.94% 23.12% 14.51%
HuK 40.15% 18.08% 22.07% 35.07% 24.78%
Capoch 14.06% 4.79% 9.27% 30.84% 55.10%
Group 8:
+ Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
----------------------------------------------------------------
mOOnGLaDe 91.92% 65.45% 26.47% 5.15% 2.93%
TheStC 77.13% 22.92% 54.21% 14.52% 8.35%
Illusion 18.88% 7.24% 11.64% 44.02% 37.10%
Maker 12.07% 4.39% 7.68% 36.31% 51.61% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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RevivaL 72.54% 40.72% 31.82% 15.79% 11.67%
mOOnGLaDe 79.84% 39.15% 40.70% 13.86% 6.29%
Illusion 28.48% 12.30% 16.18% 37.25% 34.27%
Maker 19.13% 7.84% 11.30% 33.10% 47.77% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
----------------------------------------------------------------
mOOnGLaDe 85.86% 49.78% 36.08% 9.21% 4.94%
Alicia 75.14% 35.79% 39.35% 14.46% 10.40%
Illusion 22.20% 8.29% 13.91% 41.59% 36.21%
Maker 16.81% 6.15% 10.66% 34.74% 48.45%
One question I have though, is who plays who first? In the GSL or "Swiss" group format, who you play first is quite important. Not playing the toughest opponent in the group greatly increases your chances of getting out of said group. Look at how they've listed the players in the announcement: the strongest player in the group is always listed 3rd. Does that mean that the qualified player is matched up against them in group play? Or when the 4th player is announced, will they shuffle the names again?
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On April 17 2013 10:27 Zzoram wrote:
Huk lucks out with groups yet again. It'll be good to see him at a LAN again.
Really? Getting a group with Sen is lucky?
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Conclusions:
They've done an admirable job of spreading around the Koreans as to not make a group of death. If 8/8 of the qualifier players are Korean, which I think at this point is not a terrible bet to make, we're looking at about 12 Koreans in the top 16.
The numbers indicate that these foreigners have a decent chance of making it out of their groups:
Group 1: Killer
Group 2: Scarlett
Group 3: Goswser or IdrA (but not both)
Group 4: Suppy
Group 5: -
Group 6: Snute, and possibly theognis
Group 7: Sen, and possibly HuK
Group 8: Moonglade
Of course, take all this with a grain of salt. If predicting winners in Starcraft was as easy as that, the current Liquibet leader would be predicting winners better than the 63.5% he's at now. I fully expect to see at least one great upset this season. Maybe Capoch's one base all ins will carry him to the top.
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On April 17 2013 12:11 jmbthirteen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2013 10:27 Zzoram wrote:
Huk lucks out with groups yet again. It'll be good to see him at a LAN again. Really? Getting a group with Sen is lucky?
When the other options include HerO, viOLet, Polt, Ryung, Nestea, and Scarlett, yes, I would wager HuK is feeling pretty lucky right now.
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On April 17 2013 08:38 Bagi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2013 08:33 Mackus wrote:
I love how no one's mentioned Group 5 although it has 2 LG-IM players in it. Fenix is a huge questionmark because of his injury and following inactivity, Nestea is good but kinda falling off recently. Minigun is, ehh, Minigun. If you ask me it has the potential to be one of the weakest groups.
I see what your saying but he can't be that bad if he's still on the team, so its a split 50/50 on the matter.
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On April 17 2013 12:27 Gatesleeper wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2013 12:11 jmbthirteen wrote:On April 17 2013 10:27 Zzoram wrote:
Huk lucks out with groups yet again. It'll be good to see him at a LAN again. Really? Getting a group with Sen is lucky? When the other options include HerO, viOLet, Polt, Ryung, Nestea, and Scarlett, yes, I would wager HuK is feeling pretty lucky right now.
you greatly underrate Sen my friend. I'd put him above Nestea and Scarlett without question. He has beaten HerO before. And he definitely could beat viOLet, Polt, and Ryung. Sen is a sick good player.
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On April 17 2013 12:10 Gatesleeper wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2013 09:08 Prplppleatr wrote:Here's Aligulac predictions: + Show Spoiler +I wasn't sure how to do a nul player, so I just used Artosis as a filler since he is one of the lowest ranked players (sorry artosis ♥) Group 1: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
HerO 87.42% 60.14% 27.28% 8.91% 3.66%
KiLLeR 60.67% 23.06% 37.61% 29.81% 9.53%
MajOr 46.89% 14.98% 31.91% 41.05% 12.06%
Artosis 5.02% 1.82% 3.20% 20.23% 74.75% Group 2: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
viOLet 95.74% 68.69% 27.06% 3.42% 0.84%
Scarlett 88.87% 28.07% 60.80% 9.80% 1.34%
State 12.22% 2.68% 9.54% 48.16% 39.61%
Artosis 3.17% 0.56% 2.61% 38.62% 58.21% Group 3: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
Polt 96.15% 77.25% 18.91% 3.47% 0.37%
goswser 54.63% 13.57% 41.06% 37.39% 7.98%
IdrA 45.14% 8.79% 36.35% 39.17% 15.69%
Artosis 4.08% 0.40% 3.68% 19.96% 75.96% Group 4: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Ryung 90.68% 65.08% 25.60% 6.73% 2.60%
Suppy 70.93% 22.54% 48.39% 23.13% 5.94%
hellokitty 31.42% 10.46% 20.96% 40.52% 28.06%
Artosis 6.98% 1.93% 5.05% 29.62% 63.40% Group 5: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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NesTea 92.95% 69.87% 23.08% 5.30% 1.75%
Minigun 47.62% 14.56% 33.06% 34.40% 17.97%
Fenix 52.61% 13.79% 38.83% 36.65% 10.74%
Artosis 6.81% 1.78% 5.02% 23.65% 69.54% Group 6: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
Snute 95.24% 73.94% 21.30% 3.45% 1.31%
theognis 61.69% 16.97% 44.72% 27.62% 10.69%
ViBE 36.03% 7.34% 28.69% 46.25% 17.72%
Artosis 7.04% 1.75% 5.29% 22.67% 70.29% Group 7: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
Sen 95.38% 72.10% 23.28% 3.29% 1.34%
HuK 65.96% 20.10% 45.86% 24.04% 10.01%
Capoch 27.94% 5.46% 22.48% 43.82% 28.24%
Artosis 10.73% 2.34% 8.39% 28.86% 60.41% Group 8: Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
----------------------------------------------------------------
mOOnGLaDe 96.05% 77.35% 18.71% 2.53% 1.41%
Illusion 54.55% 11.74% 42.81% 32.04% 13.41%
Maker 41.18% 8.11% 33.07% 41.84% 16.98%
Artosis 8.21% 2.80% 5.41% 23.59% 68.20% I've seen people post Aligulac numbers before. I don't really understand how it works exactly, and I didn't know anyone can just mess around with it without needing to know code or learning how to use it. It's actually quite simple to use, just input the player names and bam, it gives you the results. I don't think using Artosis as the 4th player is the best way to look at how the groups might pan out because it's likely that the players who qualify for the Premier division will be very good players, and likely Korean. Using this list of Koreans who are signing up for NA region, I compared on Aligulac the ones who weren't already given Premier seeds, and tried to determine who would be a fitting generic 4th player. A player who is likely to win through the qualifiers to get a premier seed, but not the very best, someone who sits slightly higher than the middle of that list. From playing around on Aligulac, there are a few players like this: Revival, TheStC, Alive, Crank, Zenio, and Alicia all have pretty even Aligulac scores. All solid players, no one would be surprised of one of they qualified. So instead of Artosis, let's see what happens when we put TheStC, Revival, and Alicia (one of each race) as the 4th player in each group. Group 1: + Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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HerO 66.14% 36.00% 30.14% 19.33% 14.53%
TheStC 55.55% 27.84% 27.71% 24.15% 20.30%
KiLLeR 49.02% 23.79% 25.23% 26.09% 24.90%
MajOr 29.29% 12.36% 16.93% 30.43% 40.28% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
HerO 70.92% 40.72% 30.20% 16.67% 12.41%
RevivaL 55.65% 26.96% 28.69% 23.24% 21.12%
KiLLeR 38.93% 17.57% 21.36% 30.14% 30.93%
MajOr 34.50% 14.75% 19.75% 29.95% 35.55% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-------------------------------------------------------------
HerO 63.86% 33.68% 30.18% 20.56% 15.57%
Alicia 59.22% 30.63% 28.60% 22.65% 18.13%
KiLLeR 48.58% 23.84% 24.74% 26.11% 25.30%
MajOr 28.33% 11.85% 16.48% 30.67% 41.00% Group 2: + Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
viOLet 84.47% 52.82% 31.65% 10.88% 4.65%
Scarlett 77.52% 35.19% 42.33% 16.40% 6.08%
TheStC 30.47% 9.36% 21.11% 48.05% 21.47%
State 7.54% 2.63% 4.90% 24.66% 67.80% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
viOLet 82.95% 50.83% 32.12% 11.93% 5.13%
Scarlett 66.01% 30.55% 35.46% 25.18% 8.82%
RevivaL 41.19% 15.43% 25.76% 33.99% 24.82%
State 9.85% 3.19% 6.66% 28.90% 61.24% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
---------------------------------------------------------------
viOLet 86.51% 55.32% 31.18% 9.45% 4.05%
Scarlett 78.39% 34.27% 44.12% 15.98% 5.63%
Alicia 28.82% 8.07% 20.76% 52.92% 18.25%
State 6.28% 2.34% 3.94% 21.65% 72.07% Group 3: + Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
Polt 73.02% 41.06% 31.95% 16.70% 10.29%
TheStC 49.48% 24.74% 24.74% 25.22% 25.29%
goswser 43.18% 19.94% 23.25% 27.27% 29.54%
IdrA 34.31% 14.26% 20.06% 30.81% 34.88% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
Polt 87.51% 60.70% 26.80% 7.59% 4.91%
RevivaL 54.01% 16.68% 37.33% 25.30% 20.69%
goswser 30.69% 13.05% 17.64% 31.98% 37.34%
IdrA 27.80% 9.57% 18.22% 35.14% 37.07% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
Polt 85.31% 57.34% 27.97% 8.86% 5.83%
goswser 42.23% 16.38% 25.84% 29.70% 28.07%
Alicia 41.98% 16.12% 25.86% 28.30% 29.71%
IdrA 30.48% 10.15% 20.33% 33.13% 36.39% Group 4: + Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TheStC 68.09% 36.62% 31.47% 19.61% 12.30%
Ryung 62.53% 31.30% 31.23% 21.35% 16.12%
Suppy 49.10% 23.93% 25.17% 29.19% 21.71%
hellokitty 20.28% 8.15% 12.13% 29.85% 49.87% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Ryung 75.32% 45.37% 29.94% 14.20% 10.49%
RevivaL 57.29% 25.87% 31.41% 22.80% 19.91%
Suppy 43.15% 18.71% 24.44% 33.04% 23.81%
hellokitty 24.25% 10.04% 14.20% 29.96% 45.79% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Alicia 67.99% 35.54% 32.44% 20.69% 11.32%
Suppy 55.80% 30.45% 25.36% 23.96% 20.23%
Ryung 57.23% 26.79% 30.44% 24.84% 17.93%
hellokitty 18.98% 7.22% 11.76% 30.51% 50.51% Group 5: + Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------
NesTea 73.64% 41.77% 31.88% 15.33% 11.03%
TheStC 68.72% 34.06% 34.67% 18.32% 12.96%
Minigun 30.67% 13.15% 17.52% 32.64% 36.69%
Fenix 26.96% 11.02% 15.93% 33.72% 39.33% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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NesTea 75.60% 44.76% 30.85% 14.36% 10.04%
RevivaL 56.87% 26.88% 29.99% 23.20% 19.93%
Minigun 37.07% 15.95% 21.12% 30.31% 32.62%
Fenix 30.46% 12.41% 18.04% 32.13% 37.41% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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NesTea 81.52% 52.40% 29.12% 10.97% 7.52%
Alicia 61.68% 23.42% 38.25% 22.51% 15.82%
Minigun 28.68% 12.45% 16.23% 33.07% 38.26%
Fenix 28.13% 11.73% 16.40% 33.46% 38.41% Group 6: + Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Snute 83.61% 53.09% 30.53% 10.28% 6.11%
TheStC 67.93% 27.55% 40.38% 18.02% 14.05%
theognis 28.76% 12.21% 16.55% 39.61% 31.63%
ViBE 19.69% 7.15% 12.54% 32.10% 48.21% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Snute 81.17% 49.85% 31.31% 11.98% 6.85%
RevivaL 57.81% 25.32% 32.49% 24.12% 18.07%
theognis 42.02% 17.91% 24.11% 32.55% 25.42%
ViBE 19.00% 6.91% 12.08% 31.35% 49.66% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Snute 84.63% 54.87% 29.76% 9.67% 5.70%
Alicia 58.52% 23.62% 34.90% 21.27% 20.21%
theognis 32.62% 13.23% 19.39% 36.79% 30.59%
ViBE 24.23% 8.28% 15.95% 32.27% 43.50% Group 7: + Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Sen 85.46% 55.92% 29.54% 9.64% 4.90%
TheStC 56.10% 20.05% 36.04% 26.75% 17.15%
HuK 44.08% 19.30% 24.78% 32.85% 23.06%
Capoch 14.36% 4.72% 9.64% 30.75% 54.89% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Sen 85.45% 55.89% 29.55% 9.65% 4.90%
HuK 45.83% 19.85% 25.99% 31.82% 22.35%
RevivaL 53.77% 19.40% 34.37% 27.72% 18.51%
Capoch 14.95% 4.86% 10.09% 30.81% 54.24% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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Sen 83.42% 52.70% 30.72% 10.97% 5.61%
Alicia 62.37% 24.43% 37.94% 23.12% 14.51%
HuK 40.15% 18.08% 22.07% 35.07% 24.78%
Capoch 14.06% 4.79% 9.27% 30.84% 55.10% Group 8: + Show Spoiler + Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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mOOnGLaDe 91.92% 65.45% 26.47% 5.15% 2.93%
TheStC 77.13% 22.92% 54.21% 14.52% 8.35%
Illusion 18.88% 7.24% 11.64% 44.02% 37.10%
Maker 12.07% 4.39% 7.68% 36.31% 51.61% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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RevivaL 72.54% 40.72% 31.82% 15.79% 11.67%
mOOnGLaDe 79.84% 39.15% 40.70% 13.86% 6.29%
Illusion 28.48% 12.30% 16.18% 37.25% 34.27%
Maker 19.13% 7.84% 11.30% 33.10% 47.77% Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
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mOOnGLaDe 85.86% 49.78% 36.08% 9.21% 4.94%
Alicia 75.14% 35.79% 39.35% 14.46% 10.40%
Illusion 22.20% 8.29% 13.91% 41.59% 36.21%
Maker 16.81% 6.15% 10.66% 34.74% 48.45% One question I have though, is who plays who first? In the GSL or "Swiss" group format, who you play first is quite important. Not playing the toughest opponent in the group greatly increases your chances of getting out of said group. Look at how they've listed the players in the announcement: the strongest player in the group is always listed 3rd. Does that mean that the qualified player is matched up against them in group play? Or when the 4th player is announced, will they shuffle the names again?
The reason I used artosis is because you can not run a 4-way swiss tournament style (or w.e it's called) with only 3 people....And because I didnt know how to do them with a nul (blank person), I used one of the lowest ranked people, so that it skews the results as little as possible (as if it were a blank)
IE. I wanted to see the predictions in the GSL style format for only the three people we know of for sure (of those 3 ppl who will be the most likely to make it out, since at least one of them will)...we don't know who the 4th will be, so I didn't bother trying that
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On April 17 2013 08:19 bertu wrote:
I personally think that Sen is better than all of the above and he would deserve a skill-based seed (idra and huk had historically better results, but that was along ago; scarlett was really close to him in recent skill). The problem is that reason he got the korean seed isn't necessarily because he was better. It happened to be a coincidence. You can't say the same about moonglade and snute, for sure.
There is no doubt in my mind Snute is better than Idra and HuK, and pretty close to Scarlett.
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On April 17 2013 13:03 jmbthirteen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2013 12:27 Gatesleeper wrote:On April 17 2013 12:11 jmbthirteen wrote:On April 17 2013 10:27 Zzoram wrote:
Huk lucks out with groups yet again. It'll be good to see him at a LAN again. Really? Getting a group with Sen is lucky? When the other options include HerO, viOLet, Polt, Ryung, Nestea, and Scarlett, yes, I would wager HuK is feeling pretty lucky right now. you greatly underrate Sen my friend. I'd put him above Nestea and Scarlett without question. He has beaten HerO before. And he definitely could beat viOLet, Polt, and Ryung. Sen is a sick good player.
Sen is great, but HuK definitely got one of the easier groups, though it may change depending on who makes it through the qualifier.
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United Kingdom31935 Posts
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poor State, seems like a really nice kid but what a hard group.
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On April 17 2013 13:03 jmbthirteen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2013 12:27 Gatesleeper wrote:On April 17 2013 12:11 jmbthirteen wrote:On April 17 2013 10:27 Zzoram wrote:
Huk lucks out with groups yet again. It'll be good to see him at a LAN again. Really? Getting a group with Sen is lucky? When the other options include HerO, viOLet, Polt, Ryung, Nestea, and Scarlett, yes, I would wager HuK is feeling pretty lucky right now. you greatly underrate Sen my friend. I'd put him above Nestea and Scarlett without question. He has beaten HerO before. And he definitely could beat viOLet, Polt, and Ryung. Sen is a sick good player.
I've liked Sen pretty much since the beta of WoL, especially since he randomly comes out of nowhere and gets 3rd in a tournament of Koreans.
But there's no way he's better than Nestea and probably not Scarlett either. I'd totally consider him the favorite of his group though.
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On April 17 2013 14:01 FrostedMiniWheats wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2013 13:03 jmbthirteen wrote:On April 17 2013 12:27 Gatesleeper wrote:On April 17 2013 12:11 jmbthirteen wrote:On April 17 2013 10:27 Zzoram wrote:
Huk lucks out with groups yet again. It'll be good to see him at a LAN again. Really? Getting a group with Sen is lucky? When the other options include HerO, viOLet, Polt, Ryung, Nestea, and Scarlett, yes, I would wager HuK is feeling pretty lucky right now. you greatly underrate Sen my friend. I'd put him above Nestea and Scarlett without question. He has beaten HerO before. And he definitely could beat viOLet, Polt, and Ryung. Sen is a sick good player. I've liked Sen pretty much since the beta of WoL, especially since he randomly comes out of nowhere and gets 3rd in a tournament of Koreans. But there's no way he's better than Nestea and probably not Scarlett either. I'd totally consider him the favorite of his group though.
what have we seen from Nestea lately to suggest he is better than Sen? Let's be honest, Nestea hasn't been that great for a good while now. I think Scarlett is a great player, but Sen has posted better results throughout all of sc2.
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On April 17 2013 14:21 jmbthirteen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2013 14:01 FrostedMiniWheats wrote:On April 17 2013 13:03 jmbthirteen wrote:On April 17 2013 12:27 Gatesleeper wrote:On April 17 2013 12:11 jmbthirteen wrote:On April 17 2013 10:27 Zzoram wrote:
Huk lucks out with groups yet again. It'll be good to see him at a LAN again. Really? Getting a group with Sen is lucky? When the other options include HerO, viOLet, Polt, Ryung, Nestea, and Scarlett, yes, I would wager HuK is feeling pretty lucky right now. you greatly underrate Sen my friend. I'd put him above Nestea and Scarlett without question. He has beaten HerO before. And he definitely could beat viOLet, Polt, and Ryung. Sen is a sick good player. I've liked Sen pretty much since the beta of WoL, especially since he randomly comes out of nowhere and gets 3rd in a tournament of Koreans. But there's no way he's better than Nestea and probably not Scarlett either. I'd totally consider him the favorite of his group though. what have we seen from Nestea lately to suggest he is better than Sen? Let's be honest, Nestea hasn't been that great for a good while now. I think Scarlett is a great player, but Sen has posted better results throughout all of sc2.
3rd at Iron Squid II barely losing to DRG. You could even argue this is more impressive than Sen's path in WCS. He actually beat PartinG, where Sen got 3-0'd.
Made it back to code S which means he only missed 1 season throughout WoL. Sen has never managed anything but 2nd round code A.
In HotS, from what I understand he 2-0'd Sen and beat Sen's teammates in a 2v1 at the launch event in Taiwan.
Finally, outside of ZvT (where Sen may actually be better), Nestea flat out looks better in ZvZ and ZvP.
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I have a feeling Nestea is going to disappoint.
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group 3 hardest by far, no1 here has got what it takes to beat Polt (based on recent achievements). Maybe nestea, mc or violet will be able to take a game off him, but overall their performance hasn't been very good lately, or at least good enough to beat polt. the rest won't even be a challange to him, i think.
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On April 17 2013 14:50 Pandahunterz wrote:
group 3 hardest by far, no1 here has got what it takes to beat Polt (based on recent achievements). Maybe nestea, mc or violet will be able to take a game off him, but overall their performance hasn't been very good lately, or at least good enough to beat polt. the rest won't even be a challange to him, i think.
Which is precisely why this isn't a group of death (disregarding what happens with qualifiers). There's a clear 1st spot (Polt), while there's enough evidence to assume Goswser is significantly better than Idra right now. This group will only become a semi GoD if a player of similar skill to Goswser qualifies. If a really good KR enters the group, then it's pretty clear Polt and said KR are going to go through this stage.
Also, while NesTea has been on the downfall for a long time now, there's no evidence to suggest how Sen compares to him. I think Sen is really good, and can beat most players in this tournament in a good day, but as far as comparison goes, there isn't much to look at.
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EPT
